2020 Election

[SunsetBengal]

(07-27-2020, 08:51 PM)GMDino Wrote: https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=3100930809984904&ref=external

I embedded it so anyone could click on the title and see the FB page.  It was shared by a friend and the time was correct so either it was a coincidence or the page did it on purpose.

Well, I just find that incredibly hard to believe that was today.  All over the morning news was that the President was arriving at RDU (Raleigh), at 2:30 this afternoon, and then speaking at a biotech company that is working on a Covid vaccine.  So, with the timeline of the video you shared being "6 hours ago", I truly find it hard to believe that happened today.

I don't have the time or energy to dig around and find out exactly what year that speech you posted happened, but by purporting it as "today", that sure looks like trolling to me.

[*jason*]

(07-27-2020, 08:41 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Of what year?  Where's the link?

Don't hold me to it, but I think it was from earlier this year. Maybe in that short time frame between the impeachment and the pandemic setting in. The only reason I say that is that I remember those comments, and I'm sorta in one ear right out the other with politics. The video is gone for me now so I can't see it again but I'd say no older than last fall tops.

[hollodero]

(07-27-2020, 04:45 PM)GMDino Wrote: Ooof.

Meanwhile, his approval rating in polls among registered/likely voters really isn't any better and in fact is the lowest it has been since Jan. 3, 2018. pic.twitter.com/x0RAzFPReK

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 27, 2020

 

Ooof indeed. My main takeaway from that is that Trump has 40% approval rating no matter what he does. Unlike seemingly everyone else opposed to Trumpism, I am not happy the rating is so low, I am shocked that it is still so high.

[GMDino]

(07-28-2020, 05:04 AM)hollodero Wrote: Ooof indeed. My main takeaway from that is that Trump has 40% approval rating no matter what he does. Unlike seemingly everyone else opposed to Trumpism, I am not happy the rating is so low, I am shocked that it is still so high.

All you have to do is have a small idea about how cults work and it would make sense.

[GMDino]

Interesting opinion piece comparing Trump to Carter with respect to where they were when up for reelection and how voters tend to view them.

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/509275-its-1980-in-reverse

Quote:With 100 days left, Election Day 2020 is fast-approaching. The Real Clear Politics polling average gives presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden an average 8.7 percentage point nationwide lead. Swing state polls look even better for the former vice president. Biden leads in Pennsylvania by 11 points; Wisconsin by 8; Michigan by 9; and Florida by 5 — states President Trump probably needs to win a second term. 


Down-ballot polling suggests a Democratic tidal wave is gathering strength. The generic House ballot gives Democrats an 8.6 percentage point advantage, while the non-partisan Cook Political Report awards Democrats an additional five to seven Senate seats come November. Together, these numbers point toward a comfortable Democratic majority in the next Congress.


In many ways, 2020 is 1980 in reverse. That year, Ronald Reagan won a landslide victory and Republicans made remarkable congressional gains. Entering the fall campaign, President Carter’s approval rating stood at a dismal 38 percent. Carter hoped to overcome his poor marks by making his opponent the issue. Many saw Reagan as too old (he was 69 and would be the oldest president at that time); too out-of-touch (he called the Vietnam War a “noble cause”); and too gaffe-prone (he said trees were a major cause of pollution). Carter’s chief strategist, Hamilton Jordan, chortled that it was “delicious” watching Reagan “stumble from one controversy to the next.” The Carter game plan was clear: Make the election a choice, not a referendum.

This year, Donald Trump seeks to replicate Carter’s strategy. Trump repeatedly avows that the 77-year-old Biden has lost a step and would be put in a nursing home if elected. Just as Carter tried to sow fear – arguing that Reagan would cut Social Security and Medicare – Trump is engaging in fear mongering, contending that a mentally challenged Biden would be controlled by extremist elements within his party. But, like Carter, Trump’s game plan is deeply flawed. In 1980, Reagan reassured voters that they had nothing to fear. Today, most voters are not afraid of Joe Biden.


Running for reelection in 1936, Franklin D. Roosevelt said: “There's one issue in this campaign. It's myself, and people must either be for me or against me.” So it is with every incumbent president. If a chief executive improves the lot of average Americans and makes them proud, victory is assured. If not, moving vans come to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. The bell-weather polling question on any president’s report card is this: “Generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?” First invented by Reagan’s pollster Richard Wirthlin, this query has become “the Dow Jones indicator of American politics.” Back in 1980, just 20 percent said the country was headed in the right direction. Today, it’s 19 percent.


In 1980, the country faced immense problems. By Election Day, American hostages had been held for one year in Iran and would not be freed until Reagan’s inauguration. The “misery index” (the combination of unemployment and inflation) stood at 20 percent. In a lone debate with Carter, Reagan put this final question before voters, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” Ballots cast virtually screamed, “No!” and Reagan won 44 of 50 states. 


Adding to the landslide, Republicans gained an extraordinary 12 Senate seats to win a majority for the first time in 28 years. Democratic Senate titans, including former presidential nominee George McGovern, lost. Republicans also gained 35 House seats, giving them de facto control together with conservative southern Dixiecrats. The “age of Reagan” had begun.


This year, Democrats are poised to replicate Reagan’s feat for themselves. Like Carter, voters judge Trump a failure on the most important issue facing the country: The novel coronavirus. Today, more than four million Americans are infected, and the number of deaths is approaching 150,000. This is more killed than in every modern war the U.S. has fought since Korea combined. Trump’s job approval stands at 39 percent, and positive assessments of his management of the pandemic have fallen from 51 percent in March to 38 percent today.

1980 began a Republican era. Voters accepted Reagan’s premise that government was the problem, not the solution. Even when Bill Clinton sought reelection in 1996, 56 percent believed government was “doing too many things” better left to businesses and individuals. By 2019, 56 percent wanted government to “do more to solve the problems and help meet the needs of people.” The pandemic has only increased the public's sense of urgency.


Something else has changed to favor Democrats. In 1980, 88 percent of voters were white, 10 percent were African American, and just 2 percent were Hispanic. By 2016, the electorate was 71 percent white and minority voters – including African Americans, Hispanics and Asian Americans – rose to a combined 30 percent. Forty years ago, the “real majority” was described as “un-young, un-poor and un-black.”

Put another way, voters were mostly white suburbanites who were married, middle aged, with middle incomes. Today, families assume many different forms, as a newfound “moral freedom” is transforming 21st century politics. Rising voters – especially racial minorities, single women and millennials – tilt decidedly in the Democrats’ favor. 


Today, as in 1980, the United States is a profoundly unhappy country. Forty years ago, voters judged Jimmy Carter to be a moral man who was not up to the job of being president. Today, voters see Donald Trump as an amoral, unlikable person who is an incompetent president. There are 100 days left in campaign 2020, and much can happen to an already exhausted country. But one thing is certain: The Reagan era is over. Unless things change substantially, this election is 1980 in reverse. 


John Kenneth White is a professor of politics at the Catholic University of America and the author of “What Happened to the Republican Party?”   

       

[hollodero]

(07-28-2020, 09:54 AM)GMDino Wrote: All you have to do is have a small idea about how cults work and it would make sense.

Well, a cult usually consists of way fewer people, that all can have a somewhat direct relationship to a cult leader. Which is not the only reason why I do not find the cult analogy quite fitting.

I personally came to the conclusion that many Trump supporters are not so much pro Trump inherently as that they despise the folks that don't approve of him. So they do, as some kind of "let's show them", or with some kind of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend"-logic. Also, generally most Americans, on both sides, just hate to admit that they were wrong, so there's a strong tendency to cling to something despite whatever.

Disclaimer, I do not despise or diminish Trump supporters, to an extent I get why some might rationally decide to go with him, and there are many supporters I would not dismiss as blind cult followers. Some others, sure. But not the whole 40%.

[GMDino]

(07-28-2020, 05:23 PM)hollodero Wrote: Well, a cult usually consists of way fewer people, that all can have a somewhat direct relationship to a cult leader. Which is not the only reason why I do not find the cult analogy quite fitting.

I personally came to the conclusion that many Trump supporters are not so much pro Trump inherently as that they despise the folks that don't approve of him. So they do, as some kind of "let's show them", or with some kind of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend"-logic. Also, generally most Americans, on both sides, just hate to admit that they were wrong, so there's a strong tendency to cling to something despite whatever.

Disclaimer, I do not despise or diminish Trump supporters, to an extent I get why some might rationally decide to go with him, and there are many supporters I would not dismiss as blind cult followers. Some others, sure. But not the whole 40%.

Little bit of column A, little bit of column B.

He has a large megaphone to send his message out.  Maybe televangelist is a better example?  Trump can sell Trump.  And there are lots of buyers who believe every word.

Then throw in the "we will support a Republican no matter what they do or say" crowd who love his "tough talk" and "speaking his mind".

40% adds up very quickly.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(07-28-2020, 05:23 PM)hollodero Wrote: Well, a cult usually consists of way fewer people, that all can have a somewhat direct relationship to a cult leader. Which is not the only reason why I do not find the cult analogy quite fitting.

I personally came to the conclusion that many Trump supporters are not so much pro Trump inherently as that they despise the folks that don't approve of him. So they do, as some kind of "let's show them", or with some kind of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend"-logic. Also, generally most Americans, on both sides, just hate to admit that they were wrong, so there's a strong tendency to cling to something despite whatever.

Disclaimer, I do not despise or diminish Trump supporters, to an extent I get why some might rationally decide to go with him, and there are many supporters I would not dismiss as blind cult followers. Some others, sure. But not the whole 40%.

You're actually much closer to the truth than Dino.  We've had this discussion before, but if you find the political platform of the Democratic Party inherently unpalatable, and let's be honest there's plenty of sound reasons to do so, then you're likely going to vote for Trump.  This is also why they're keeping Biden in hiding right now.  Does anyone ever remember a nominee for POTUS being as invisible as Biden is right now?  They're trying to keep the focus on Trump's failures and away from Biden.  This isn't an effective long term strategy though.  Eventually he is going to have to campaign and Biden will inevitably stick his foot in his mouth, numerous times.  Couple that with the likely extreme party platform the Dems will advance this year (or risk facing an internal civil war if it is not sufficiently "progressive") and I think you'll see a much closer election than many here are counting on.  Three months is an eternity in politics, a hell of a lot can happen in that time.  Here's a key thing to watch for.  If Biden's team tries to eliminate or severely curtail the debates it'll be a sign that they're not confident of the results.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(07-28-2020, 07:17 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: You're actually much closer to the truth than Dino.  We've had this discussion before, but if you find the political platform of the Democratic Party inherently unpalatable, and let's be honest there's plenty of sound reasons to do so, then you're likely going to vote for Trump.  This is also why they're keeping Biden in hiding right now.  Does anyone ever remember a nominee for POTUS being as invisible as Biden is right now?  They're trying to keep the focus on Trump's failures and away from Biden.  This isn't an effective long term strategy though.  Eventually he is going to have to campaign and Biden will inevitably stick his foot in his mouth, numerous times.  Couple that with the likely extreme party platform the Dems will advance this year (or risk facing an internal civil war if it is not sufficiently "progressive") and I think you'll see a much closer election than many here are counting on.  Three months is an eternity in politics, a hell of a lot can happen in that time.  Here's a key thing to watch for.  If Biden's team tries to eliminate or severely curtail the debates it'll be a sign that they're not confident of the results.

I’m not crazy about Biden and which I had a better option from the Democrats. With that said, Biden is a better option than Trump. No, I haven’t seen less of a presidential candidate roughly three months before Election Day. But, I’ve never seen an election during a pandemic like this. We know Biden will say something stupid so limiting the opportunities for unforced errors is a smart strategy for now.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(07-28-2020, 07:27 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: I’m not crazy about Biden and which I had a better option from the Democrats. With that said, Biden is a better option than Trump.

I can certainly see why many people would think so.

Quote:No, I haven’t seen less of a presidential candidate roughly three months before Election Day. But, I’ve never seen an election during a pandemic like this. We know Biden will say something stupid so limiting the opportunities for unforced errors is a smart strategy for now.

I quite agree. I'd also point out that the same argument could have been made against Trump in 2016, and I honestly think Hillary is more electable than Biden.  They are smart for limiting Biden's exposure for now, but it's not a long term strategy and what happens in August doesn't mean much in November.  We really won't know which way this is going to go until late October.  I think anyone believing Biden has this in the bag is engaging in wishful thinking.

[*jason*]

(07-28-2020, 07:17 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: You're actually much closer to the truth than Dino.  We've had this discussion before, but if you find the political platform of the Democratic Party inherently unpalatable, and let's be honest there's plenty of sound reasons to do so, then you're likely going to vote for Trump.  This is also why they're keeping Biden in hiding right now.  Does anyone ever remember a nominee for POTUS being as invisible as Biden is right now?  They're trying to keep the focus on Trump's failures and away from Biden.  This isn't an effective long term strategy though.  Eventually he is going to have to campaign and Biden will inevitably stick his foot in his mouth, numerous times.  Couple that with the likely extreme party platform the Dems will advance this year (or risk facing an internal civil war if it is not sufficiently "progressive") and I think you'll see a much closer election than many here are counting on.  Three months is an eternity in politics, a hell of a lot can happen in that time.  Here's a key thing to watch for.  If Biden's team tries to eliminate or severely curtail the debates it'll be a sign that they're not confident of the results.

I dunno... It's a pretty effective strategy when the president can't stay out of his own way. Just today he's (and his eldest kid) back on the quack medical advise train.

[Belsnickel]

The Lincoln Project is taking their show to Alaska, Maine, and Montana.

https://www.axios.com/lincoln-project-senate-alaska-maine-montana-f1127dfe-5123-471a-9512-6e77ed3ce5fd.html

[Belsnickel]

Well this is an interesting development.

A campaign ad for Sen. Lindsey Graham features an image of his opponent with a digitally altered darker skin tone https://t.co/HsUWef7CwA pic.twitter.com/2qlbjGkHAY

— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) July 29, 2020

[BmorePat87]

(07-29-2020, 10:23 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: Well this is an interesting development.

A campaign ad for Sen. Lindsey Graham features an image of his opponent with a digitally altered darker skin tone https://t.co/HsUWef7CwA pic.twitter.com/2qlbjGkHAY

— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) July 29, 2020

and in Georgia, David Perdue's campaign had an online ad where his Jewish opponent, Jon Ossoff, had his nose distorted to appear bigger with the message "Democrats are trying to buy Georgia". Chuck Schumer was also in the ad.

Dog whistles everywhere. 

[Belsnickel]

(07-29-2020, 10:48 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: and in Georgia, David Perdue's campaign had an online ad where his Jewish opponent, Jon Ossoff, had his nose distorted to appear bigger with the message "Democrats are trying to buy Georgia". Chuck Schumer was also in the ad.

Dog whistles everywhere. 

One has to wonder why these strategists think that these racist techniques will work to get GOP voters to the polls. Quite the mystery.

[hollodero]

(07-28-2020, 05:41 PM)GMDino Wrote: Little bit of column A, little bit of column B.

He has a large megaphone to send his message out.  Maybe televangelist is a better example?  Trump can sell Trump.  And there are lots of buyers who believe every word.

Then throw in the "we will support a Republican no matter what they do or say" crowd who love his "tough talk" and "speaking his mind".

40% adds up very quickly.

Hm. There are those that just want conservative judges, fear socialism or an abolishment of amendment number two, have a strong stance on abortion, [...], and finally, sure, white racists.
And then there are those you describe. I am aware of them, but while some sure genuinely adore Trump, I feel these posiitions also often initially stem from disliking liberals rather then from enthusiasm for Trump. Of course in confrontation these positions are adapted (and maybe forcefully believed) to counter, similar to what the GOP members in Congress do, who allegedly (and I believe that) privately sing a whole different tune about Trump than publicly. But I guess many at least to some extent are aware of the unspeakable disaster you and I deem Trump to be. Even on the more extreme platforms there's more hatred than enthusiasm. So I think "hating"/disliking liberals is maybe by far the biggest portion of the 40%, not so much people being gullible or cult followers.
Just now I notice how "hatred" with an empty space in the middle turns into "hat red", and hence I now also explained MAGA hats.

(07-28-2020, 07:17 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: You're actually much closer to the truth than Dino.  We've had this discussion before, but if you find the political platform of the Democratic Party inherently unpalatable, and let's be honest there's plenty of sound reasons to do so, then you're likely going to vote for Trump.  This is also why they're keeping Biden in hiding right now.  Does anyone ever remember a nominee for POTUS being as invisible as Biden is right now?  They're trying to keep the focus on Trump's failures and away from Biden.  This isn't an effective long term strategy though.  Eventually he is going to have to campaign and Biden will inevitably stick his foot in his mouth, numerous times.  Couple that with the likely extreme party platform the Dems will advance this year (or risk facing an internal civil war if it is not sufficiently "progressive") and I think you'll see a much closer election than many here are counting on.  Three months is an eternity in politics, a hell of a lot can happen in that time.  Here's a key thing to watch for.  If Biden's team tries to eliminate or severely curtail the debates it'll be a sign that they're not confident of the results.

Well, aside from the strategy of letting Trump beat Trump looking pretty successful at this moment, there is a ravaging epidemic around and it seems understandable to keep an 78-year old man away from crowds, for his benefit as well as that of the crowd, these are not the times for public appearances. I also do not perceive Biden as invisible. Never mind he visibly fought a primary, he still does give several interviews and has things to say, including irritating mental lapses and many quite thoughtful and reasonable things in between.
Also I feel you're overestimating the extremeness of the Democratic party, or their willingness to shoot themselves in the foot prior to election day by going after Biden for not being progressive enough (for that would be idiotic and they did not do so as of now), and I do not believe Biden will avoid a confrontation with Trump. But that we will see anyways.

As for the Democrats being unpalatable, I can see why someone would feel that way and I sure feel the party is severely flawed on many fronts. I do have a harder time understanding how a platform sporting Trump and Trump sycophants, which describes the GOP almost as a whole these days, can be seen as less or at most just equally impalatable from a neutral standpoint. I back up this stance by saying oh my god it's Trump.

[Belsnickel]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53597975

Quote:Donald Trump has called for November's presidential election to be postponed, saying increased postal voting could lead to fraud and inaccurate results.

He suggested a delay until people can "properly, securely and safely" vote.

There is little evidence to support Mr Trump's claims but he has long railed against mail-in voting which he has said would be susceptible to fraud

US states want to make postal voting easier due to public health concerns over the coronavirus pandemic.

In a tweet, Mr Trump said "universal mail-in voting" would make November's vote the "most inaccurate and fraudulent election in history" and a "great embarrassment to the USA".

[BmorePat87]

(07-30-2020, 10:30 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53597975

Kids can go to school, but we can’t vote?

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) July 30, 2020

 

Fire from the Lincoln Project, but it has officially begun. Until today, the GOP could write off all of his comments that would suggest he would not accept the results of the election, but this tweet went over the line of plausible deniability. 

Rick Wilson is right:

Every GOP official should be put on the record on this today.

Simple yes or no answer.

"Should we delay the election?"

Watch how many of them say, "What is Twitter?" "Donald Who?" "I haven't seen the tweet." "Ya ne govoryu po angliyski." "I'm late for lunch."

— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) July 30, 2020

 

[Belsnickel]

(07-30-2020, 10:36 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote:

Kids can go to school, but we can’t vote?

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) July 30, 2020

 

Fire from the Lincoln Project, but it has officially begun. Until today, the GOP could write off all of his comments that would suggest he would not accept the results of the election, but this tweet went over the line of plausible deniability. 

Rick Wilson is right:

Every GOP official should be put on the record on this today.

Simple yes or no answer.

"Should we delay the election?"

Watch how many of them say, "What is Twitter?" "Donald Who?" "I haven't seen the tweet." "Ya ne govoryu po angliyski." "I'm late for lunch."

— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) July 30, 2020

 

You know how some of us have been talking about warning signs of tyranny? This is one of those things.

[hollodero]

(07-30-2020, 10:38 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: You know how some of us have been talking about warning signs of tyranny? This is one of those things.

Yep. I already had started to become curious why he hasn't brought it up already.

I really hope for the US that he at least leaves it at that. 

I'd also hope that at least some GOP members stand up to that idea, but I am quite pessimistic about that one. "I am focused on policy and won't comment every one of Trump's tweets. You media people are obsessed."