2022 Election Results Thread

[KillerGoose]

Fetter man is looking like he could pull out a victory. Also, Lauren Boebert is looking like she could be in for an upset. With 71% of the vote counted, she is down by 4%.

[KillerGoose]

(11-09-2022, 12:51 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: It looked like abortion would be illegal here in Kentucky but the wording on the ballot and on the election results webpages is confusing as hell:


Reading it over and over, it becomes apparent that yes would make it illegal and not require the state to pay for it, but that's confusing language.

Earlier in the day, it looked like it would be illegal in a landslide but now it's 53.3% no and 46.7% yes, so it still might become illegal, but I'm wondering if the wording is misleading voters one way or the other.

Weird if abortion is kept legal because like 117 counties our of 120 went red.

There were predictions of a red wave but now it looks like it could go either way.

That is quite a sizable lead, especially with 80% of the vote counted. O would he surprised if it didn’t pass at this point.

[*Nately120*]

(11-09-2022, 12:51 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: It looked like abortion would be illegal here in Kentucky but the wording on the ballot and on the election results webpages is confusing as hell:


Reading it over and over, it becomes apparent that yes would make it illegal and not require the state to pay for it, but that's confusing language.

Earlier in the day, it looked like it would be illegal in a landslide but now it's 53.3% no and 46.7% yes, so it still might become illegal, but I'm wondering if the wording is misleading voters one way or the other.

Weird if abortion is kept legal because like 117 counties our of 120 went red.

There were predictions of a red wave but now it looks like it could go either way.

Stuff like that is often writing in intentionally confusing terms to skew things one way or another.  There wasn't anything like that on the ballot here in PA.  It's hard to poll on stuff like abortion because it seems like people are willing to privately vote one way and then openly discuss things another way.

It may be simply harder to poll these days because tensions between the parties are so high that more people want to keep stuff to themselves. In my neck of the woods a guy in Trump gear who had a handgun on his person had to be escorted out of a polling place in a church because he insisted he had a constitutional right to stay and monitor things, so that's always fun. 

The Warnock/Walker race seems destined for a runoff.  I have a buddy in GA who is ready to make time on December 6th for that.  Sounds like a pain. 

[*Nately120*]

(11-09-2022, 12:52 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: Fetter man is looking like he could pull out a victory. Also, Lauren Boebert is looking like she could be in for an upset. With 71% of the vote counted, she is down by 4%.

Oz being rubber banded to Trump and especially Mastriano may be the kicker, there.  Shapiro's popularity and Mastriano's extreme nature certainly helped get some extra votes Fetterman's way while people were enthused to vote against a way too red for PA candidate on the same ticket.

The only thing I really heard from the Bobert thing was her over reliance upon slagging on Biden.  It's wise to call out a president of the opposite party who is underwater approval-wise, but she did it to the point where Frisch was able to make some national noise by pointing out that she isn't running against Joe Biden.

[tms]

I hate the election economy. Non-stop, around the calendar. So many groups profit off of the division. Like a bug in your ear. I've become extremely anti-extremist, you have no idea lol

Hochul destroyed Zeldin. Fitting. Democrats wasted God knows how much time and money fending off a guy who had no chance in hell. I'm away from home right now but watching it play out over the past few months has been cringe.

#electionsreflections

[*pally*]

(11-09-2022, 12:51 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: It looked like abortion would be illegal here in Kentucky but the wording on the ballot and on the election results webpages is confusing as hell:


Reading it over and over, it becomes apparent that yes would make it illegal and not require the state to pay for it, but that's confusing language.

Earlier in the day, it looked like it would be illegal in a landslide but now it's 53.3% no and 46.7% yes, so it still might become illegal, but I'm wondering if the wording is misleading voters one way or the other.

Weird if abortion is kept legal because like 117 counties our of 120 went red.

There were predictions of a red wave but now it looks like it could go either way.

Even many Republicans support a woman’s right to choose. And on this question people will often publically say one thing and vote the opposite way.

Don’t be surprised if Warnock pulls it off without a runoff. The remaining votes are in overwhelmingly Democratic counties. There are easily enough votes left for Warnock to go over 50%

[Dill]

Red wave over.  

Voted for Fetterman this morning; and now

Flores in Texas is out. Pretty happy about that one.

Expecting a 2010-style shellacking of Biden's party, Fox commentators are subdued. One even shocked.

Paraphrase: As bad as Biden and the Dems are, voters looked at the alternative and said "nope."
                  Dems ran against MAGA candidates and it worked.

Bret Baer says "They were hoping to pick up 35+ in the House. They'll be lucky to pick up 10."
Another said they hoped to pick up 53 in the Senate.

That is very heartening. It means more people than expected realize that

1. Biden isn't responsible for global inflation and gas prices, but he is doing what can be done.

2. Increasing Republican power will mean change--for the worse. Tax cuts for the rich won't fix the economy, nor will national abortion restrictions. What else they got? Don't want to find out.

3. "Candidate quality" still matters to enough voters. People don't want chaos. 

There WILL be chaos, though. McCarthy is crowing "We're expanding the party!" Party of freedom and police, ready to make government work for the people--and block Dem legislation.   Sending Nancy home. (the Silent part: MJT and MAGA on important committees.)

Foxies are all boosting DeSantis, showing everyone how to protect "freedom" down in Florida.  

My view--only Trump can stop him if he runs for President. No Democrat can.  

[CarolinaBengalFanGuy]

(11-08-2022, 11:56 PM)StoneTheCrow Wrote: Oh no, he is?

[*Nately120*]

(11-09-2022, 07:00 AM)CarolinaBengalFanGuy Wrote:

I guess PA voters figure Fetterman is more likely to recover from a stroke than Oz is to recover from having his lips on Trump's arse. 


My quick and possibly overly hot take is DeSantis' victory coupled with Trump's candidates being hit or miss, and in some cases like in PA and maybe GA if the runoff goes poorly for Walker, being notable busts makes me think the GOP is going to move towards DeSantis and Trump is already warning that he has secret dirt on ol' Ron.

Trump has a tendency to bounce back from this stuff that would kill most other politicians, though.

[*michaelsean*]

(11-09-2022, 12:51 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: It looked like abortion would be illegal here in Kentucky but the wording on the ballot and on the election results webpages is confusing as hell:


Reading it over and over, it becomes apparent that yes would make it illegal and not require the state to pay for it, but that's confusing language.

Earlier in the day, it looked like it would be illegal in a landslide but now it's 53.3% no and 46.7% yes, so it still might become illegal, but I'm wondering if the wording is misleading voters one way or the other.

Weird if abortion is kept legal because like 117 counties our of 120 went red.

There were predictions of a red wave but now it looks like it could go either way.

The way I read it, it’s saying nothing in the Kentucky constitution is to be construed to say abortion is a right so it would be up to the legislature.

[Arturo Bandini]

(11-09-2022, 12:52 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: Fetter man is looking like he could pull out a victory. Also, Lauren Boebert is looking like she could be in for an upset. With 71% of the vote counted, she is down by 4%.

Sounds like Copeland's prayers are ineffective ... when it doesn't talk about private planes.

[*Nately120*]

PA really highlights the bizarre and overall downtrodden nature of our current political climate where you have a president who is very unpopular vying for candidates while an even less popular 1 term president who didn't win the state in his reelection bid is vying for the other side. The democrats at least had the Obama card to play, so there is one thing they have over the GOP at the moment.

Still, I'm thinking Trump's grasp on the party is looking quite shaky but the abortion factor is such a confounding variable it's hard to tell.

[GMDino]

(11-09-2022, 09:57 AM)Nately120 Wrote: PA really highlights the bizarre and overall downtrodden nature of our current political climate where you have a president who is very unpopular vying for candidates while an even less popular 1 term president who didn't win the state in his reelection bid is vying for the other side.  The democrats at least had the Obama card to play, so there is one thing they have over the GOP at the moment.

Still, I'm thinking Trump's grasp on the party is looking quite shaky but the abortion factor is such a confounding variable it's hard to tell.

PA has been essentially ran by repubicans since 1995...and they keep saying to vote for them so they can fix the problems in the state...and the voters keep falling for it.

My closest counties, former bastions of unions and the working man, all went straight red...again.  The problem for them is that the populations have dropped so much the larger, blue areas override them on the state and national level.

I read something about so many conservative PA residents relocated to Florida to have "freedom" that Fl is now guaranteed red but PA is more purple than ever.

[*Nately120*]

(11-09-2022, 10:21 AM)GMDino Wrote: PA has been essentially ran by repubicans since 1995...and they keep saying to vote for them so they can fix the problems in the state...and the voters keep falling for it.

My closest counties, former bastions of unions and the working man, all went straight red...again.  The problem for them is that the populations have dropped so much the larger, blue areas override them on the state and national level.

I read something about so many conservative PA residents relocated to Florida to have "freedom" that Fl is now guaranteed red but PA is more purple than ever.

Well that goes back to the argument that a PA standard moderate republican would have won and kept the seat that has been red since 2011 red.  It seemed like Oz was going to pull it off with that late stage surge, but as hard as it is to believe the polls actually overestimated the GOP this time.

I'll be interested to see how the GOP losses here are handled.  I assume Trump and Mastriano will go the "rigged" way, but Oz seems like he's just going to take a private jet to his mansion in NJ and count his blessings he doesn't have to kiss Trump's arse for an entire senate term. Florida and Ohio going from THE swing states to being solid red now doesn't bode well for democrats on the presidential stage, though.

[KillerGoose]

Control of the Senate is essentially down to three races - GA. NV, and AZ. GA is likely to go to a runoff as Warnock is unlikely to reach the 50% needed to outright win. NV and AZ could be blue before then, however. With 65% of the vote in, Kelly leads Masters by five points so far. That will narrow as things go on and as the election day votes tend to lean red. Democrat candidate Cortez in Nevada is down by three points with 80% of the vote in, but the large majority of ballots remaining are in Clark County (Las Vegas), where Cortez Masto has carried the county by nearly five points so far. I am doing some quick napkin math and unless she really picks up her pace in Vegas, I am not sure I see where she can make up her deficit. By my count, there are 107k outstanding votes in Vegas and ~206k statewide. I am projecting her to lose the rest of the state 43% to 56%, or a ~12,500 vote margin. She will need to win the rest of the Vegas votes by roughly a 70/30 count in order to win the seat.

EDIT - The rest of the votes are expected to lean heavy blue, so it is possible that she could do that.

[*Nately120*]

If the Warnock/Walker race isn't in play to determine senate control can we expect people who held their nose to vote for Walker to sit out voting for his devious ass a second time?

[*michaelsean*]

So senate 50/50 like before? House will be Republican?

[*Nately120*]

(11-09-2022, 12:01 PM)michaelsean Wrote: So senate 50/50 like before? House will be Republican?

I think it depends on AZ and NV.  AZ looks safe-ish for the democrats, but NV is still up in the air but the betting markets are leaning D on that one at the moment.

The PA seat flipped from R to D, so that could open the door to the GA runoff being for a 50/50 or 51/49 and either way the republicans are behind the ball....I think.

And yes to a republican house, but they didn't get the red wave bloodbath one would historically and unpopular Biden-ly expect.

[KillerGoose]

(11-09-2022, 12:05 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I think it depends on AZ and NV.  AZ looks safe-ish for the democrats, but NV is still up in the air but the betting markets are leaning D on that one at the moment.

The PA seat flipped from R to D, so that could open the door to the GA runoff being for a 50/50 or 51/49 and either way the republicans are behind the ball....I think.

And yes to a republican house, but they didn't get the red wave bloodbath one would historically and unpopular Biden-ly expect.

Yeah, credible predictions of a red wave dissipated months ago. The abortion decision really halted Republican favoritism. The House will go red but the Senate is favored to go blue at this point. If NV is blue, then it is essentially guaranteed that the Senate will be Democrat. Arizona is favored to be Democrat, so that is the reasoning. They just need to win AZ and NV to call the Senate race.

[*Nately120*]

(11-09-2022, 12:11 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Yeah, credible predictions of a red wave dissipated months ago. The abortion decision really halted Republican favoritism. The House will go red but the Senate is favored to go blue at this point. If NV is blue, then it is essentially guaranteed that the Senate will be Democrat. Arizona is favored to be Democrat, so that is the reasoning. They just need to win AZ and NV to call the Senate race.

The GOP surged up in the polls in the past month or so, but what wasn't reflected in that were reports of high early voting and not knowing if the abortion stuff was still fresh enough in people's minds to drive ticket splitting and motivating unlikely/younger voters.

On the gubernatorial side of things, Kari Lake is already suing in regards to the legitimacy of her election.