7/11 - always open

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-11-2023, 03:20 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: Go look at the Vikings target tree and compare it against ours, it’s eerily similar.  They just have a TE as their number 2 option.

Chase 60
Higgins 34 (injured a game and a half)
Boyd 32
Everybody else

Jefferson 53
Hockenson 39
Addison 29
Everybody else

Yeah, targets aren't really that far off. Looks like more Y/R. Jefferson has been able to maintain a 14-16ypr where Chase has dipped to 12 in year 2 and just under 11 this year.

[*pally*]

I asked Joe Burrow what he thinks of Ja'Marr Chase's "7/11, always open" stuff.

Joe: "He's not wrong."#Bengals @WCPO

— Caleb Noe (@CalebNoeTV) October 11, 2023

[TKUHL]

(10-11-2023, 10:23 AM)Bengalbug Wrote: Do you think Chase got this from Chad? Do you think he even is aware Chad proclaimed this?

It’s amazing to look back over the last 20 years and realize, while not hall of Famers, we have had some greats at receiver - Chad, AJ, Chase.

Since 2003, those three account for the 9 best total season yards in bengals history.

Since 2003, the bengals have two of the top 26 career receiving leaders in Green and Chad (spending most of their careers here). They would be higher on the list had they been able to hold on to their primes for just a few more seasons, for completely different reasons.

We have always had pretty good luck drafting WR’s other than Ross. We draft WR’s about as well as Balt drafts LBers.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(10-11-2023, 03:28 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: Guys like Kupp and Adam’s were not meant to be franchise saviors. They also got drafted to good teams with a lot of competition in front of them.

We literally went from picking top 5 (and not just because of the Burrow injury - he won 2 games that year) to the Super Bowl after drafting Chase. If that’s not a franchise savior idk what is.

[Bengalbug]

(10-11-2023, 09:51 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: We literally went from picking top 5 (and not just because of the Burrow injury - he won 2 games that year) to the Super Bowl after drafting Chase. If that’s not a franchise savior idk what is.

That’s my point. Chase was meant to come in day 1 and produce. kupp and Adam’s were not. Clearly their contributions were not going to be seen day 1. Much like chad Johnson vs aj green.

[*Go Cards*]

(10-11-2023, 11:35 AM)Bengalbug Wrote: I just compiled stats since 2021, for Chase, Jefferson, Kupp, Hill and Adam’s.  I looked at this through the lens of

1. Difference maker/game wrecker (games with 100+ yards)
2. Contributor (games with 61-99 yards)
3.  Meh to disappointing (games with 60 or less yards).

Chase has played 34 games:
1.  11 games over 100 yards (32% of games)
2.  9 games as a contributor (26%)
3.  14 games 60 yards or under (41%)

Jefferson - 39 games:
1. 20 (51%)
2. 9 (23%)
3. 10 (26%)

Kupp - 27 games:
1. 18 (67%)
2. 7 (26%)
3. 2 (7%)

Hill - 39 games (closest comp to chase)
1. 13 (33%)
2. 11 (28%)
3. 15 (38%)

Adams - 39 games
1.  17 (44%)
2.  12 (31%)
3.  10 (26%)

My thoughts…

Kupp is ridiculous when healthy.  
Chase needs to flip flop his boom and “meh” weeks.  Minimally, let’s move the meh weeks to contributor weeks.  Having 60 yards or less 41%, or 7 games out of the year, isn’t going to cut it.  

I know there is a lot more to this (coaching, scheme, bad starts by the team), but every other player on this list has dealt with similar adversity.

The one difference would be that Chase has much better WR#2 and #3 to steal targets from him that these others do not. Well Kupp now has a legit #2 and expect his ratio's of big games to decline because of it starting this season. 

[chrisball96]

(10-11-2023, 04:04 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Yeah, targets aren't really that far off. Looks like more Y/R. Jefferson has been able to maintain a 14-16ypr where Chase has dipped to 12 in year 2 and just under 11 this year.

I think his yards per reception being low is understandable given Burrow’s injury. What I’ve been impressed with though is his ability to secure the football and make something happen with it given just how many passes he has to catch to get those yards and impact the game.

With all that just 1 drop in 5 games. Not too shabby there.

[Bengalbug]

(10-12-2023, 07:50 AM)chrisball96 Wrote: I think his yards per reception being low is understandable given Burrow’s injury. What I’ve been impressed with though is his ability to secure the football and make something happen with it given just how many passes he has to catch to get those yards and impact the game.

With all that just 1 drop in 5 games. Not too shabby there.

That could explain this year, but going from 18 in year one to 12 in year two is a big drop. Could be the coverage… but that goes back to coaching and letting other teams dictate how you play.

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-12-2023, 07:50 AM)chrisball96 Wrote: I think his yards per reception being low is understandable given Burrow’s injury. What I’ve been impressed with though is his ability to secure the football and make something happen with it given just how many passes he has to catch to get those yards and impact the game.

With all that just 1 drop in 5 games. Not too shabby there.

Yep. They've been using him more with different kinds of screens and slants as well. Unless he turns those into chunk plays, his ypc is going to suffer. 

We've yelled about them moving him around and they have been doing that and i'm certainly not complaining about the ypc. I'm happy to see him with more targets and more catches, regardless of the depth.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(10-11-2023, 11:35 AM)Bengalbug Wrote: I just compiled stats since 2021, for Chase, Jefferson, Kupp, Hill and Adam’s.  I looked at this through the lens of

1. Difference maker/game wrecker (games with 100+ yards)
2. Contributor (games with 61-99 yards)
3.  Meh to disappointing (games with 60 or less yards).

Chase has played 34 games:
1.  11 games over 100 yards (32% of games)
2.  9 games as a contributor (26%)
3.  14 games 60 yards or under (41%)

Jefferson - 39 games:
1. 20 (51%)
2. 9 (23%)
3. 10 (26%)

Kupp - 27 games:
1. 18 (67%)
2. 7 (26%)
3. 2 (7%)

Hill - 39 games (closest comp to chase)
1. 13 (33%)
2. 11 (28%)
3. 15 (38%)

Adams - 39 games
1.  17 (44%)
2.  12 (31%)
3.  10 (26%)

My thoughts…

Kupp is ridiculous when healthy.  
Chase needs to flip flop his boom and “meh” weeks.  Minimally, let’s move the meh weeks to contributor weeks.  Having 60 yards or less 41%, or 7 games out of the year, isn’t going to cut it.  

I know there is a lot more to this (coaching, scheme, bad starts by the team), but every other player on this list has dealt with similar adversity.

Nice work on the stats, very interesting to see. That said, another variable is the Bengals have TB and Tee Higgins that take away some targets and have good games themselves. In my opinion, those other guys don't have the caliber of running mates that JaMarr has. We don't have to force feed him as much. 

[Nicomo Cosca]

(10-12-2023, 10:44 AM)WychesWarrior Wrote: Nice work on the stats, very interesting to see. That said, another variable is the Bengals have TB and Tee Higgins that take away some targets and have good games themselves. In my opinion, those other guys don't have the caliber of running mates that JaMarr has. We don't have to force feed him as much. 

That’s the thing though, I think they should. Good things tend to happen when you throw 1 the ball a lot. I’d be interested to see both our record (and his stats) when Chase has at least double digit targets.

[KillerGoose]

(10-12-2023, 11:01 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: That’s the thing though, I think they should. Good things tend to happen when you throw 1 the ball a lot. I’d be interested to see both our record (and his stats) when Chase has at least double digit targets.

The Bengals are 10-6 when Chase receives double digit targets. They are 9-9 when he doesn't. When Chase receives at least 10 targets, he averages eight catches for 122 yards and a TD. 

[Nicomo Cosca]

(10-12-2023, 11:19 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: The Bengals are 10-6 when Chase receives double digit targets. They are 9-9 when he doesn't. When Chase receives at least 10 targets, he averages eight catches for 122 yards and a TD. 

Thanks. That’s about what I figured.

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-12-2023, 11:19 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: The Bengals are 10-6 when Chase receives double digit targets. They are 9-9 when he doesn't. When Chase receives at least 10 targets, he averages eight catches for 122 yards and a TD. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(10-12-2023, 11:19 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: The Bengals are 10-6 when Chase receives double digit targets. They are 9-9 when he doesn't. When Chase receives at least 10 targets, he averages eight catches for 122 yards and a TD. 

Sounds about right, Burrow needs to target Chase a bunch on Sunday playing against a rookie for most of the game I am sure in 
Witherspoon. A very good rookie, but none the less a rookie. Chase is another animal that Spoon hasn't faced yet. When Chase is 
on he has such great balance, strength, quicks and even long speed to go with strong hands and when Burrow and Chase are on 
the same page there isn't a better QB/WR duo in the NFL.

[Bengalholic]

#Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase is the first player in #NFL history to record multiple games of at least 10 receptions, 150 receiving yards and 3 receiving TDs in his first 3 career seasons. ?

He also became the fourth player under 24 with 15 receptions in a single game. pic.twitter.com/CIig2MuM55

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 12, 2023

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(10-12-2023, 01:47 PM)Bengalholic Wrote:

#Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase is the first player in #NFL history to record multiple games of at least 10 receptions, 150 receiving yards and 3 receiving TDs in his first 3 career seasons. ?

He also became the fourth player under 24 with 15 receptions in a single game. pic.twitter.com/CIig2MuM55

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 12, 2023

Wow 

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(10-12-2023, 11:01 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: That’s the thing though, I think they should. Good things tend to happen when you throw 1 the ball a lot. I’d be interested to see both our record (and his stats) when Chase has at least double digit targets.

Oh, I'm certainly not against it, I was just adding a little context.

[chrisball96]

Just adding more fuel to the fire 

“I think Spoon (Devon Witherspoon) will get the best of him.” - D.K. Metcalf on Ja’Marr Chase. Here’s the full clip️ pic.twitter.com/SWAYV6RpQs

— James Rapien (@JamesRapien) October 12, 2023

[Bengalbug]

(10-12-2023, 11:19 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: The Bengals are 10-6 when Chase receives double digit targets. They are 9-9 when he doesn't. When Chase receives at least 10 targets, he averages eight catches for 122 yards and a TD. 

I did this looking at wins and losses. Chase averages 9.4 targets per game regardless of the wins or loss.. including playoffs.

In wins, he is averaging 6.65 catches for 96.46 yards and .85 TDs, or a TD on 13% of his receptions.

In losses, he is averaging 5.6 catches for 70.47 yards and .4 TDs, or a TD on 7% of his receptions.

That one catch different is worth 26 yards and .45 TDs.


As far as double digit targets go:

I just ran the numbers, using ESPN data, and I got 13-5 on double digit target games; again mine include playoffs, however most playoff games he didn’t get 10 targets.

I got 13-10 when he receives less than double digit targets. Jamar chase has also played in 41 games, including playoffs: 21 (21), 15 (22) and 5 (23).

When chase catches 7 balls, they are 14-3, average 12.2 targets per game
When less than 7 balls, they are 12-12, average 7.4 targets per game

When chase gets 100 yards, they are 10-3, average 11.8 targets per game
When less than 100 yards, they are 16-12, average 8.28 targets per game

When chase scores they are 15-5, average 10.3 targets per game
When chase doesnt they are 11-10, average 8.47 targets per game

12.2 targets is an 83% win percentage
11.8 targets is an 77% win percentage
10.3 targets is an 75% win percentage
8.47 targets is an 52% win percentage
8.28 targets is an 57% win percentage
7.40 targets is an 50% win percentage

Double digit targets to chase makes us a much better team, thus force feeding chase is a good thing.