70% of Republicans Would Consider Joining New Party Formed by Donald Trump, Poll Find

[Au165]

(02-11-2021, 01:09 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Either way, your point still doesn't address the fact that I highly doubt he went from 44.9% of Republican voters voting for him in the primary in 2016 to 70% of all Republicans willing to outright leave their political party for Trump Party. At the end of the day, the US 2 party system remains unbeaten in staying in power.

The article doesn't say "outright leave" in fact it says 33% would leave, while 37% would "maybe". That is why the title of the article says 70% would CONSIDER joining new party.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(02-11-2021, 01:11 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Well yea, that seems like total bs for sure.  I'm saying that the GOP can't afford to have any percentage of their base vote 3rd party.

100%

Neither party can afford to lose more than a percent or two to 3rd party so long as the other party doesn't also lose that amount. It's why they're so thorough in setting up a system where 3rd parties can't possibly succeed.

(02-11-2021, 01:17 PM)Au165 Wrote: The article doesn't say "outright leave" in fact it says 33% would leave, while 37% would "maybe". That is why the title of the article says 70% would CONSIDER joining new party.

And I am not sure if I even buy 33% saying they would actually leave, let alone 70% considering it. Otherwise there'd be a whole lot more 3rd party voters than there are.

When election day comes around and they realize that the system is set up so only 2 parties can possibly win, 95%+ of voters from both sides will once again vote R or D, and that includes the 33% who said they would.

In 2016, not even 6% of people voted 3rd party. In 2020, that number wasn't even 2%.

At the end of the day, the overwhelmingly vast majority of people are going to hold their nose and vote for the big party candidate who represents their party so that they can win and the other party will lose. 

[GMDino]

(02-11-2021, 02:37 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: 100%

Neither party can afford to lose more than a percent or two to 3rd party so long as the other party doesn't also lose that amount. It's why they're so thorough in setting up a system where 3rd parties can't possibly succeed.


And I am not sure if I even buy 33% saying they would actually leave, let alone 70% considering it. Otherwise there'd be a whole lot more 3rd party voters than there are.

When election day comes around and they realize that the system is set up so only 2 parties can possibly win, 95%+ of voters from both sides will once again vote R or D, and that includes the 33% who said they would.

In 2016, not even 6% of people voted 3rd party. In 2020, that number wasn't even 2%.

At the end of the day, the overwhelmingly vast majority of people are going to hold their nose and vote for the big party candidate who represents their party so that they can win and the other party will lose. 

His approval rate was a steady 38-45% or so so 1/3 of those polled saying they would follow him to a new party seems about right if not at least logical.

And again this is about a Trump party...not just a third party.  People will follow HIM even if they wouldn't vote for a third party just over ideology.  

74 million people voted for him...he *could* draw a 1/3 or more of those to a third party with ease just based on the cult of personality.

[*Nately120*]

(02-11-2021, 02:56 PM)GMDino Wrote: His approval rate was a steady 38-45% or so so 1/3 of those polled saying they would follow him to a new party seems about right if not at least logical.

And again this is about a Trump party...not just a third party.  People will follow HIM even if they wouldn't vote for a third party just over ideology.  

74 million people voted for him...he *could* draw a 1/3 or more of those to a third party with ease just based on the cult of personality.

Yeah, Trump would get more than 2 or 3% like a normal 3rd party candidate.  There would be Trump supporters who will say "He can't win, I have to vote for REPUBLICAN or DEMOCRAT will win" but he will also get those votes of people who know he won in 2020 and he can't lose in 2024. Trump's biggest fans "know" the guy is 2-0 in presidential elections...you can't say that about Gary Johnson or Jill Stein voters.

[Au165]

It's funny we are out here acting like this would be some ordinary 3rd party candidate. This guy has become the face of the Republican party like no guy has in decades, much to the angst of many in it. We have seen him do and get away with things no one would have ever believed a President could and now we are questioning if the rabid base that enabled him to do those things would follow him? You literally had a majority of a party's representatives scared to publicly say bad things about him for fear of being attacked by his zealots.

[*Nately120*]

(02-11-2021, 03:01 PM)Au165 Wrote: It's funny we are out here acting like this would be some ordinary 3rd party candidate. This guy has become the face of the Republican party like no guy has in decades, much to the angst of many in it. We have seen him do and get away with things no one would have ever believed a President could and now we are questioning if the rabid base that enabled him to do those things would follow him? You literally had a majority of a party's representatives scared to publicly say bad things about him for fear of being attacked by his zealots.

Geez, now I'm picturing the republican candidate dropping out of the race leaving a democrat vs Patriot Party Trump.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(02-11-2021, 02:56 PM)GMDino Wrote: His approval rate was a steady 38-45% or so so 1/3 of those polled saying they would follow him to a new party seems about right if not at least logical.

And again this is about a Trump party...not just a third party.  People will follow HIM even if they wouldn't vote for a third party just over ideology.  

74 million people voted for him...he *could* draw a 1/3 or more of those to a third party with ease just based on the cult of personality.

Yeah, but that 38-45% was when he was part of the Republican party.

This is the same reason why there has never been a Bernie Sanders party and he ran under the Democratic party. People follow HIM, but when it comes down to it, and those people who follow him see D vs R vs Bernie, they will think that their vote for Bernie will cause the D to lose to R, and they'll vote D.

[Au165]

(02-11-2021, 03:21 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Yeah, but that 38-45% was when he was part of the Republican party.

This is the same reason why there has never been a Bernie Sanders party and he ran under the Democratic party. People follow HIM, but when it comes down to it, and those people who follow him see D vs R vs Bernie, they will think that their vote for Bernie will cause the D to lose to R, and they'll vote D.

Bernie Sanders isn't Donald Trump. You simply can't use any other comparison we have seen in decades to compare any political force to him. It's a phenomenon that will be studied for years to come. 

[Au165]

More, but different, fallout from Trump and political parties. Again, this all can't be dismissed. I think it's less likely everyone else takes their ball and leaves but again this is fascinating.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/02/11/report-more-than-120-republicans-in-talks-to-form-anti-trump-political-party/?sh=61e515ec4b51

[*Nately120*]

(02-11-2021, 03:21 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Yeah, but that 38-45% was when he was part of the Republican party.

This is the same reason why there has never been a Bernie Sanders party and he ran under the Democratic party. People follow HIM, but when it comes down to it, and those people who follow him see D vs R vs Bernie, they will think that their vote for Bernie will cause the D to lose to R, and they'll vote D.

Bernie ain't Trump...the Trump effect is real.  We can go back to talking about how hard it was to pin down his support via the polls, too.

Again, Bernie has never been elected.  Trump has been president, and to his supporters he won two elections by a landslide. 

[Au165]

(02-11-2021, 03:24 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Bernie ain't Trump...the Trump effect is real.  We can go back to talking about how hard it was to pin down his support via the polls, too.

Again, Bernie has never been elected.  Trump has been president, and to his supporters he won two elections by a landslide. 

Anyone see any Bernie flags flying in yards? Because there sure are a shit ton of Trump memorabilia still out in Ohio.

[*Nately120*]

(02-11-2021, 03:25 PM)Au165 Wrote: Anyone see any Bernie flags flying in yards? Because there sure are a shit ton of Trump memorabilia still out in Ohio.

People around me still have Trump signs and Trump flags flying.  Seems like the new confederate flag, it's just something you wave to say that you aren't entirely happy with the way certain things in our country's history played out.

I'd put a Mondale/Ferraro sign outside if people had a sense of humor.  Maybe that's a bit of a self-own since my last 3 votes went to people who didn't even win a single state. Oof.

[Rotobeast]

I'll buy the 33% leaving, as I predicted 30% in a thread earlier this year.
I don't buy the 39% of "Maybe" though, as I think it's just folks pouting.
It's going to take the new party (I'm guessing) around $25 million dollars to gain minor party status across the USA.
It took the Libertarian Party of Ohio nearly $300k to do so (July 2018 and then lost again in Nov 2020).
I'll bet some of those hoops they set up will be adjusted.

[samhain]

The problem with the Trump Party is the same thing that makes it formidable in the short-term. There's only one Donald Trump. He has kids with his name, but they are all a far cry from him for individual reasons. Ivanka isn't dumb enough to be her dad, nor is she as good at not caring what the public thinks of her. Eric is an idiot and Don Jr might be a bigger one, although he's very effective using social media and other modern political tactics. None of them have decades of being super-high profile celebrities that they can use to draw in attention.

As it stands now, Trump would curb stomp any candidate the GOP could run, and it would not be close. He is their new Christ. Like, literally to some of them. He was sent by their god to smash the libz. There's nothing he can do to alienate them, even if he actively tried. I believe that even if he started spouting actual far-left policies, they'd be fine with/supporitive of it. He could take their guns and they'd hand them over. He could let every Mexican citizen become an American with full government stipends, and they'd lick it up. He could make college free and end student debt, and suddenly no Trumper would be worried about where the money came from. He could open abortion clinics and call them MAGA Trump Baby-Murder-Mart, and Trumpers would conceive just to get abortions from a place with his name on it.

He's a magic idiot, and he's an incredibly unique figure in history. Once he is gone, MAGA will still be the same shit-show it always has been. The main difference is that it will be completely rudderless. Second rate douchebags like Gaetz, Don Jr and Gym Jordan with fight each other for the scraps of the lickspittle followers. These guys are largely turds and losers. They come from hyper-gerrymandered districts that allow them to be the shitbags they are and still get elected. In Jr's case, he's just a cokehead cheerleader for a dad that treated him like garbage for 75 percent of his life. He should go back to being a loser bartender at some ski resort. Him and Lindell could run on the snowblower ticket and offer free cocaine to all Patriots to get them to froth and hyperventilate even more.

In short, when Trump leaves the public eye or passes away, this thing will change a great deal, and it won't be good for the right. It's hilarious that they can't purge him without being held accountable by the white-grievance spouting base that they exploited for the last 4 years. I hope they eat each other.

[samhain]

(02-11-2021, 04:13 PM)Rotobeast Wrote: I'll buy the 33% leaving, as I predicted 30% in a thread earlier this year.
I don't buy the 39% of "Maybe" though, as I think it's just folks pouting.
It's going to take the new party (I'm guessing) around $25 million dollars to gain minor party status across the USA.
It took the Libertarian Party of Ohio nearly $300k to do so (July 2018 and then lost again in Nov 2020).
I'll bet some of those hoops they set up will be adjusted.

They will only leave for primaries.  They will coalesce to smash Libz in actual elections.  Guaranteed.

[GMDino]

(02-11-2021, 04:13 PM)Rotobeast Wrote: I'll buy the 33% leaving, as I predicted 30% in a thread earlier this year.
I don't buy the 39% of "Maybe" though, as I think it's just folks pouting.
It's going to take the new party (I'm guessing) around $25 million dollars to gain minor party status across the USA.
It took the Libertarian Party of Ohio nearly $300k to do so (July 2018 and then lost again in Nov 2020).
I'll bet some of those hoops they set up will be adjusted.

Remember that the "Trump Defense Fund" has primarily been moved to the "Trump its my money now fund" so he could, theoretically fund such a thing.

Also remember that virtually every start up he has undertaken has failed miserably eventually.

[GMDino]

(02-11-2021, 04:19 PM)samhain Wrote: They will only leave for primaries.  They will coalesce to smash Libz in actual elections.  Guaranteed.

There is a lot of truth in this that Trump was a bad campaigner for other candidates.  He can control a crowd there to support HIM but when on the road for others he's failed quite a bit.

[samhain]

(02-11-2021, 04:22 PM)GMDino Wrote: There is a lot of truth in this that Trump was a bad campaigner for other candidates.  He can control a crowd there to support HIM but when on the road for others he's failed quite a bit.

Yeah, he failed Matt Bevin here in Kentucky in a major way.  Trump even said something to the effect of :Yeah he's a pain in the ass, but I still like him".  Nice endorsement there.

[*Nately120*]

(02-11-2021, 04:19 PM)samhain Wrote: They will only leave for primaries.  They will coalesce to smash Libz in actual elections.  Guaranteed.

That could happen, but it depends on Trump being the GOP candidate for 2024 or being the Patriot Party candidate for 2024.  He's got a following to really screw over the GOP if he's a 3rd party candidate.  You assume he's just going to storm the GOP primaries again?  Could be.

[Au165]

People keep thinking that a new Trump party is about winning, it's not. It's about fundraising, it's always been about fundraising. The windfall they took in selling false stolen election narratives was a windfall of epic proportions.