9 months to less than 1 year Polling Trump, Biden, Kennedy, Westand Stein

[BigPapaKain]

What the **** is a Charlemagne the God?

[CKwi88]

(01-04-2024, 02:09 PM)BigPapaKain Wrote: What the **** is a Charlemagne the God?

Where have you been? Around these parts if you know one person of a minority like black or latino people you can extrapolate that to the community as a whole. 

[BigPapaKain]

(01-04-2024, 03:49 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: Where have you been? Around these parts if you know one person of a minority like black or latino people you can extrapolate that to the community as a whole. 

I asked a black Latino guy I know who Charlamagne the God is. He said "Christopher Lee's ancestors? I don't know **** off". 

Using that plus what you said, I'll have to ask an Asian who he is because my buddy covers 2 ethnicities and I cover whites, so none of them races know who Charlamagne the God is.

[CKwi88]

(01-04-2024, 05:50 PM)BigPapaKain Wrote: I asked a black Latino guy I know who Charlamagne the God is. He said "Christopher Lee's ancestors? I don't know **** off". 

Using that plus what you said, I'll have to ask an Asian who he is because my buddy covers 2 ethnicities and I cover whites, so none of them races know who Charlamagne the God is.

Think black Joe Rogan ish sorta deal. But more Howard Stern ish rather than full faux intellectual like Rogan.

[BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI]

(12-04-2023, 02:31 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden_vs_kennedy_vs_west_vs_stein-8329.html

Read it and weep.

Polling Data
Poll Date Sample MoE
Trump ®
Biden (D) *
Kennedy (I)
West (I)
Stein (G)
Spread
RCP Average 11/9 - 12/1 -- -- 40.4 34.6 13.6 2.4 2.2 Trump +5.8
I&I/TIPP 11/30 - 12/1 1301 RV 2.8 38 33 11 2 2 Trump +5
Emerson 11/17 - 11/20 1475 RV 2.5 42 36 7 1 1 Trump +6
Harvard-Harris 11/15 - 11/16 2851 RV -- 43 34 18 3 2 Trump +9
FOX News 11/10 - 11/13 1001 RV 3.0 41 35 15 3 3 Trump +6
Quinnipiac 11/9 - 11/13 1574 RV 2.5 38 35 17 3 3 Trump +3
All General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein Polling Data

The same polls, at this time of year, had Mitt Romney ahead of Obama by a wider margin than this, so take this with a grain of salt.

[BigPapaKain]

(01-04-2024, 05:53 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: Think black Joe Rogan ish sorta deal.

So a conspiratorial idiot worth ignoring. Got it.

[CKwi88]

(01-04-2024, 05:54 PM)BigPapaKain Wrote: So a conspiratorial idiot worth ignoring. Got it.

I edited my reply. More shock jock/Howard Stern type compared to Rogan's faux-intellectual schtick. 

Agreed that still worth ignoring, but they do manage to amass quite the audience unfortunately.

[GMDino]

P01135809 is all in on attacking Haley.



Also remember he made her the US Ambassador to the UN.

Only hires the best people. 

https://ballotpedia.org/Nikki_Haley

I don't know if he thinks "Nimbra" is an insult or he's misspelling her first name.  Never know if he's just racist or stupid or both.

[*Nately120*]

(01-19-2024, 10:23 AM)GMDino Wrote: P01135809 is all in on attacking Haley.



Also remember he made her the US Ambassador to the UN.

Only hires the best people. 

https://ballotpedia.org/Nikki_Haley

I don't know if he thinks "Nimbra" is an insult or he's misspelling her first name.  Never know if he's just racist or stupid or both.

Trump's schoolyard brand style of insults are pretty funny in a sense.  I mean, they're pathetic in the admission that grown-ass Americans just eat the most innate crap up as long as it's falling from the anus of their favorite demagogue, still I feel like the world owes me an apology for telling me that acting like a horse's ass isn't the road to success.

I'd make some changes:

DeSantis - Ron DeSoros
Nikki Haley - Pocahontas 2.0
Vivek - Vicky Rammaswammi Pastrami *while he says this he puts on an Indian accent and points to an imaginary dot on his forehead*
Biden - Joe Pedo Bidet

[Arturo Bandini]

What an horrible man ... Good lord. I might go to Hell but at least, I won't have to vote for him.

[GMDino]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-media-max-width="560"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Trump says Nikki Haley is not smart enough to deal with Putin, Xi, and Kim Jong Un. He adds they are “very fine people” <a href="https://t.co/G7U45gOIh4">pic.twitter.com/G7U45gOIh4</a></p>&mdash; Acyn (@Acyn) <a href="https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1748522520494703098?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 20, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>






https://x.com/Acyn/status/1748522520494703098?s=20

[Luvnit2]

(01-04-2024, 05:54 PM)BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI Wrote: The same polls, at this time of year, had Mitt Romney ahead of Obama by a wider margin than this, so take this with a grain of salt.

I find it amusing you think Biden is anywhere near the popularity of Obama, hell the guy got me to vote for him once.

[*pally*]

a large group of Haley voters will not vote for Trump in the general election.  Trump cannot win the presidency on MAGA vote alone.  He needs some of those independents that he is working so hard to insult

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2024/primary-results/voter-analysis

In New Hampshire, Joe Biden who wasn't even on the Democratic ballot easily won 64% of the vote on a write in campaign

Quote:In Iowa, a Fox News voter analysis found 20 percent of Republican caucus-goers said they would be so dissatisfied with Trump being nominated that they wouldn’t vote for him in November. That number shot up to 35 percent in New Hampshire.

Quote:Second, election-day surveys showed 31 percent of Iowa caucus-goers and 42 percent of New Hampshire GOP primary voters said Trump wouldn’t be fit to serve as president if he’s convicted of a crime. This could cause trouble down the line for Trump, given the number of legal cases in which he is currently entangled.

[Luvnit2]

(01-25-2024, 03:49 PM)pally Wrote: a large group of Haley voters will not vote for Trump in the general election.  Trump cannot win the presidency on MAGA vote alone.  He needs some of those independents that he is working so hard to insult

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2024/primary-results/voter-analysis

In New Hampshire, Joe Biden who wasn't even on the Democratic ballot easily won 64% of the vote on a write in campaign

I get your goal to grab any piece of great news from any polling. Are you saying the 20+ Dean Phillips voters also will not vote for Biden? But I digress, as polls attached through Jan. 23rd or less than 10 months show Trump improving in the polls and Biden getting worse. Trump in the real clear polling average, Trump lead Nationally is almost 4% now. There were only 2 polls since Christmas that had Biden leading nationally. One was +1% for Biden is now + 1% for Trump. The other went from +1% for Biden, now +5% Trump in their most recent poll.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

As for Biden in New Hampshire, I heard the final number was 59% to an unknown Phillips 21%, yes he won. But how many people actually voted for any Democrat in the NH primary? On the other side, GOP has record turn out. I admit Biden not on ballot hurt NH turnout, but also hopefully you agree such a small number of the Democrat and Independent voters for Democrats is an outlier, hard to use any Democrat information.

On other hand Trump won by 30% in Iowas and 11% in New Hampshire. 

I do agree the Trump team better be smart and Trump's attack on Haley was an unforced error, the MAGA loved it, the suburban women cringed.

As far as the issues, illegal immigration is the #1 issue for all voters and Trump dominated all others on his immigration policy support.

[*pally*]

(01-25-2024, 10:41 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I get your goal to grab any piece of great news from any polling. Are you saying the 20+ Dean Phillips voters also will not vote for Biden? But I digress, as polls attached through Jan. 23rd or less than 10 months show Trump improving in the polls and Biden getting worse. Trump in the real clear polling average, Trump lead Nationally is almost 4% now. There were only 2 polls since Christmas that had Biden leading nationally. One was +1% for Biden is now + 1% for Trump. The other went from +1% for Biden, now +5% Trump in their most recent poll.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

As for Biden in New Hampshire, I heard the final number was 59% to an unknown Phillips 21%, yes he won. But how many people actually voted for any Democrat in the NH primary? On the other side, GOP has record turn out. I admit Biden not on ballot hurt NH turnout, but also hopefully you agree such a small number of the Democrat and Independent voters for Democrats is an outlier, hard to use any Democrat information.

On other hand Trump won by 30% in Iowas and 11% in New Hampshire. 

I do agree the Trump team better be smart and Trump's attack on Haley was an unforced error, the MAGA loved it, the suburban women cringed.

As far as the issues, illegal immigration is the #1 issue for all voters and Trump dominated all others on his immigration policy support.

Less than 15% of Republicans voted in Iowa.

Trump stopping a deal todayon the border and immigration because he didn’t want Biden to have a “victory” will not play well with the independents he needs to win the election. The Biden commercials are already being written using the sound bites by the angry Senate Republicans who worked to negotiate the now defunct bill. They let everyone know they are pissed off at Trump and MAGA House members for undermining it.

The antics of Greg Abbott pitting the Texas National Guard against the border patrol won’t help either.

Polls are snapshots. This far out it is easy to voice dissatisfaction. But I guarantee you, the more Trump and his special brand of hate, incoherence, and crazy are on display, the more Democrats and true independents will step up to stop him.

As I said, Trump can’t win by MAGA votes alone but apparently he thinks so

[Luvnit2]

(01-26-2024, 01:58 AM)pally Wrote: Less than 15% of Republicans voted in Iowa.

Trump stopping a deal todayon the border and immigration because he didn’t want Biden to have a “victory” will not play well with the independents he needs to win the election.  The Biden commercials are already being written using the sound bites by the angry Senate Republicans who worked to negotiate the now defunct bill.  They let everyone know they are pissed off at Trump and MAGA House members for undermining it.  

The antics of Greg Abbott pitting the Texas National Guard against the border patrol won’t help either.

Polls are snapshots.  This far out it is easy to voice dissatisfaction.  But I guarantee you, the more Trump and his special brand of hate, incoherence, and crazy are on display, the more Democrats and true independents will step up to stop him.  

As I said, Trump can’t win by MAGA votes alone but apparently he thinks so

These number say otherwise in fairly liberal New Hampshire.

New Hampshire primary voter turnout for 2024

According to CBS News tally, around 300,000 people as of Wednesday morning had voted in the Republican primary. This is higher than the record number who turned out in 2016, which the New Hampshire secretary of state had predicted heading into the contest.


As for the new Democratic talking point, Biden created the over 8 million illegal immigrants since he came in office. He could stop in right now, he has 100% power to do so and does not need Congress. Yet, he does not stop it? Why? The country knows Joe Biden created this mess, they also know he is nt serious about deterring illegal immigrants to stop making dangerous journeys through Mexico but instead encourages them. He want money to process more illegal immigrants, not stop the get aways (almost 1 million since 2021) or deter them from coming to southern border.

Look back in 2021 and 2022, Biden had control of Congress, yet did nothing to stop illegal immigrants from coming into the US. So, he did not have Congress do it, he did not do it so common sense tells anyone logical Biden wants these dangerous unvetted illegal immigrants in our country. The logical agree with me, look at any poll on how Biden handled immigration versus how Trump handled it? Biden is an overwhelming loser on the border.


In contrast on 124,000 voted for a Democrat in New Hampshire.


Let's see how South Carolina goes for Biden, not that he win SC, but will Democrats and Independents been enthusiastic voting for him and the Democratic party in record numbers.

[*pally*]

(01-26-2024, 12:10 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: These number say otherwise in fairly liberal New Hampshire.

New Hampshire primary voter turnout for 2024

According to CBS News tally, around 300,000 people as of Wednesday morning had voted in the Republican primary. This is higher than the record number who turned out in 2016, which the New Hampshire secretary of state had predicted heading into the contest.


As for the new Democratic talking point, Biden created the over 8 million illegal immigrants since he came in office. He could stop in right now, he has 100% power to do so and does not need Congress. Yet, he does not stop it? Why? The country knows Joe Biden created this mess, they also know he is nt serious about deterring illegal immigrants to stop making dangerous journeys through Mexico but instead encourages them. He want money to process more illegal immigrants, not stop the get aways (almost 1 million since 2021) or deter them from coming to southern border.

Look back in 2021 and 2022, Biden had control of Congress, yet did nothing to stop illegal immigrants from coming into the US. So, he did not have Congress do it, he did not do it so common sense tells anyone logical Biden wants these dangerous unvetted illegal immigrants in our country. The logical agree with me, look at any poll on how Biden handled immigration versus how Trump handled it? Biden is an overwhelming loser on the border.


In contrast on 124,000 voted for a Democrat in New Hampshire.


Let's see how South Carolina goes for Biden, not that he win SC, but will Democrats and Independents been enthusiastic voting for him and the Democratic party in record numbers.

Fox apparently didn't tell you that the New Hampshire Democratic primary was not sanctioned and will not count for delegates therefore it is logical that there was lower turnout.  Like any election, when you have an incumbent in an on-competitive primary there will be lower turnout.  However, despite that, Biden without his name even appearing on that ballot won going away on a write-in vote.

How exactly did Biden "create this mess"?  And how do you propose he fix it within legal parameters since you seem to think it is so easy

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-26-2024, 01:58 AM)pally Wrote: Less than 15% of Republicans voted in Iowa.

(01-26-2024, 06:40 PM)pally Wrote: Fox apparently didn't tell you that the New Hampshire Democratic primary was not sanctioned and will not count for delegates therefore it is logical that there was lower turnout.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/15/weather/weather-iowa-caucuses-cold-dg/index.html

It was -6 degrees in Des Moines, Iowa at 7pm on voting day, -25 with windchill.

- - - - - -

Just found it funny you in one post throw out misleading stats without context, and then literally 2 posts later in the thread you're (rightfully and correctly) pointing out someone throwing out misleading stats without context.

I hope you're right and nobody will turn out to vote for Trump when it matters, but I feel like taking that conclusion from Iowa when it was deadly cold is a dangerous prospect at best.

[Luvnit2]

(01-26-2024, 06:40 PM)pally Wrote: Fox apparently didn't tell you that the New Hampshire Democratic primary was not sanctioned and will not count for delegates therefore it is logical that there was lower turnout.  Like any election, when you have an incumbent in an on-competitive primary there will be lower turnout.  However, despite that, Biden without his name even appearing on that ballot won going away on a write-in vote.

How exactly did Biden "create this mess"?  And how do you propose he fix it within legal parameters since you seem to think it is so easy

Read my post, I did address Biden not on the ballot in New Hampshire. That is why I said it was an outlier and we will learn more about Democratic enthusiasm in SC.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(01-26-2024, 07:14 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/15/weather/weather-iowa-caucuses-cold-dg/index.html

It was -6 degrees in Des Moines, Iowa at 7pm on voting day, -25 with windchill.

- - - - - -

Just found it funny you in one post throw out misleading stats without context, and then literally 2 posts later in the thread you're (rightfully and correctly) pointing out someone throwing out misleading stats without context.

I hope you're right and nobody will turn out to vote for Trump when it matters, but I feel like taking that conclusion from Iowa when it was deadly cold is a dangerous prospect at best.

Nicely done.  This happens all the time here, yet only a few people get called out for it.  Lord knows we can never criticize anyone on our side of the fence!