Are we going to war?

[Belsnickel]

So, this isn't getting as much coverage as I would've thought it would, and frankly I am surprised it didn't get talked about on here yet: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/07/13/ordering-the-selected-reserve-and-certain-members-of-the-individual-ready-reserve-of-the-armed-forces-to-active-duty/

Quote:By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including sections 121 and 12304 of title 10, United States Code, I hereby determine that it is necessary to augment the active Armed Forces of the United States for the effective conduct of Operation Atlantic Resolve in and around the United States European Command’s area of responsibility. In furtherance of this operation, under the stated authority, I hereby authorize the Secretary of Defense, and the Secretary of Homeland Security with respect to the Coast Guard when it is not operating as a service in the Navy, under their respective jurisdictions, to order to active duty any units, and any individual members not assigned to a unit organized to serve as a unit of the Selected Reserve, or any member in the Individual Ready Reserve mobilization category and designated as essential under regulations prescribed by the Secretary concerned, not to exceed 3,000 total members at any one time, of whom not more than 450 may be members of the Individual Ready Reserve, as they deem necessary, and to terminate the service of those units and members ordered to active duty.

So, not everyone here has a military background, myself included, but I am familiar with this process so I will explain. After your typical six-year stint in the service you get your DD-214 and you wander off to civilian life. Except, you spend two years on IRR, or Individual Ready Reserve. You can drill if you want, or don't, but the tl;dr is that you still belong to Uncle Sam in case they need you, like if we go to war.

This executive action is activating some members of the IRR, specifically for Operation Atlantic Resolve, which is the European actions in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This was done during Desert Shield, GWOT, and OIF. Things do not look good.

[GMDino]

(07-15-2023, 08:07 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: So, this isn't getting as much coverage as I would've thought it would, and frankly I am surprised it didn't get talked about on here yet: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/07/13/ordering-the-selected-reserve-and-certain-members-of-the-individual-ready-reserve-of-the-armed-forces-to-active-duty/


So, not everyone here has a military background, myself included, but I am familiar with this process so I will explain. After your typical six-year stint in the service you get your DD-214 and you wander off to civilian life. Except, you spend two years on IRR, or Individual Ready Reserve. You can drill if you want, or don't, but the tl;dr is that you still belong to Uncle Sam in case they need you, like if we go to war.

This executive action is activating some members of the IRR, specifically for Operation Atlantic Resolve, which is the European actions in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This was done during Desert Shield, GWOT, and OIF. Things do not look good.

I remember my dad saying after he got out in the 60's they still owned him for a couple years after.

This is kinda disturbing.  This also probably goes back to the recruiting problems they have had for years now. But it makes you wonder what the plan is for Europe going forward.

[Arturo Bandini]

Everyone better be ready. Ukraine has already been invaded and Taiwan is close.

[Dill]

(07-15-2023, 10:28 AM)Arturo Bandini Wrote: Everyone better be ready. Ukraine has already been invaded and Taiwan is close.

Don't think Taiwan is close. 

Especially after the NATO support of Ukraine. 

[Arturo Bandini]

(07-15-2023, 02:09 PM)Dill Wrote: Don't think Taiwan is close. 

Especially after the NATO support of Ukraine. 

Because we stand for Ukraine so it made China think more.

Si Vis Pacem Parabellum.

[Dill]

(07-15-2023, 08:07 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: So, this isn't getting as much coverage as I would've thought it would, and frankly I am surprised it didn't get talked about on here yet: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/07/13/ordering-the-selected-reserve-and-certain-members-of-the-individual-ready-reserve-of-the-armed-forces-to-active-duty/

So, not everyone here has a military background, myself included, but I am familiar with this process so I will explain. After your typical six-year stint in the service you get your DD-214 and you wander off to civilian life. Except, you spend two years on IRR, or Individual Ready Reserve. You can drill if you want, or don't, but the tl;dr is that you still belong to Uncle Sam in case they need you, like if we go to war.

This executive action is activating some members of the IRR, specifically for Operation Atlantic Resolve, which is the European actions in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This was done during Desert Shield, GWOT, and OIF. Things do not look good.

This is not so unusual when our military resources are being mobilized to help a friend like Ukraine stop and adversary like Russia. It is not like Desert Shield etc. in that the U.S. is not preparing for mass, direct U.S. military engagement.

One of my nephews, a school teacher and Army Chaplain's assistant in the reserves, was deployed to Poland a couple years ago in a similar mobilization, and may be again in the next year.

Putin looks rather unstable now. The Wagner rebellion especially has to have him desperate to maintain the illusion of control, while making it all that much more difficult to sell his war to the Russian people. He cannot resign without risking his own life and freedom, and he has to be worrying about possible coup attempts. It would be stupid to close out entirely the possibility of a war with Russia. But I think Putin's decided incentive to remain in control of at least Russia precludes war with the U.S.  Both sides understand how unpredictable war is--especially they guy who thought he could waltz through the Ukraine in a couple of days. 

Biden ALSO has an incentive not to got to war with Russia, namely that it would like cost him re-election. 

Outside of a Trump win in 2024, which could complicate, reduce, or even end U.S. support for Ukraine, Putin has little chance of accomplishing his original objectives, even though it is to early to proclaim, as Biden did yesterday, that he has already lost. 

But the U.S. is going to be supporting Ukraine for some time, at least two years, and that means some boots on the ground in Poland and Germany and other places. 

The 3,000 men which could be (but aren't yet) called up would be for rotating out current support troops in Central and Eastern Europe, not for massing additional forces ahead of an imminent strike. 

[HarleyDog]

My service was 4active, 4 inactive, during which I was recalled. Service requirements are not the same. I think it is based on MOS and cost of training put towards an individual which determines length of service. Some may only have a 2 year active commitment (that may be requirements for drafted individuals). Also, I think the total commitment active/inactive = 8yrs. I’m not 100% certain, but I think it’s correct if not close.

This recall is most likely due to readiness, since our numbers are down. If you start seeing large deployments or buildup of troops with the recall, then yes, we are likely preparing for war.

[Dill]

(07-15-2023, 02:21 PM)Arturo Bandini Wrote: Because we stand for Ukraine so it made China think more.

Si Vis Pacem Parabellum.

Yes. That's a big part of it.

The next Chinese Party Congress is in 2027. 

It's possible that something could happen before then to make Xi thinks he needs 
to get the nation behind him and look for a big win. 

But in the age of long range and intermediate missiles, a land invasion of Taiwan would be a terrible risk 
for Xi and the Party on a number of levels.

"Terrible risk" has not stopped many dictators in the past, but Xi is still accountable to
his party, unlike dictators like Saddam, and much more so than Kim Jong Un. 

[Dill]

(07-15-2023, 02:58 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: My service was 4active, 4 inactive, during which I was recalled. Service requirements are not the same. I think it is based on MOS and cost of training put towards an individual which determines length of service. Some may only have a 2 year active commitment (that may be requirements for drafted individuals). Also, I think the total commitment active/inactive = 8yrs. I’m not 100% certain, but I think it’s correct if not close.

This recall is most likely due to readiness, since our numbers are down. If you start seeing large deployments or buildup of troops with the recall, then yes, we are likely preparing for war.

Yes. A few thousand replacements for rotation, possibly with personnel of units already in Europe, mainly those with the required MOS. 

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(07-15-2023, 02:58 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: My service was 4active, 4 inactive, during which I was recalled. Service requirements are not the same. I think it is based on MOS and cost of training put towards an individual which determines length of service. Some may only have a 2 year active commitment (that may be requirements for drafted individuals). Also, I think the total commitment active/inactive = 8yrs. I’m not 100% certain, but I think it’s correct if not close.

This recall is most likely due to readiness, since our numbers are down. If you start seeing large deployments or buildup of troops with the recall, then yes, we are likely preparing for war.

Largely this.  Why our numbers are down is an interesting discussion, but not the topic of this thread.

[Millhouse]

Every 10 to 20sh years since WW1 we're due to get in a war of some kind. This is especially worrisome since the rise of the MIC (military industrial complex) and the CIA post WW2.

That being said, I doubt it and I hope not. I am all for helping the Ukraine and our allies in Europe, but not if it would risk nukes going off over here. Nukes are end game in which there is no coming back from.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-15-2023, 03:09 PM)Dill Wrote: Yes. A few thousand replacements for rotation, possibly with personnel of units already in Europe, mainly those with the required MOS. 

Yeah, this looks entirely like they just needed a couple specific MOSs to have their numbers boosted. 3,000 isn't enough to move any needles in any other scenario. There's somewhere around 100,000 US troops in Europe right now.

[CKwi88]

We're already in a war.

[samhain]

(07-15-2023, 03:29 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: Largely this.  Why our numbers are down is an interesting discussion, but not the topic of this thread.

Out of shape kids.  Drugs.

[*Synric*]

(07-16-2023, 01:17 AM)samhain Wrote: Out of shape kids.  Drugs.

Alot less incentives. They gave me 62k to join and another 15k to reenlist plus the College benefits etc..

I remember when I was transitioning out I went the last 4 months to Active Reserve and the new reservists at the time didnt get any bonuses and more than one was forced into an MOS because of either ASVAB scores or a this other leadership test I didnt have to take ( I guess it was like if you find a $20 on the ground what do you do type of test). They were also told at the MEPs they could change MOS after 6 months lolol.

My Daughter did year one of ROTC and shes going to commit for her sophomore year and do the Direct SMP program which is nice no basic training or AIT lol.

[Dill]

(07-16-2023, 11:15 AM)Synric Wrote: Alot less incentives. They gave me 62k to join and another 15k to reenlist plus the College benefits etc..

I remember when I was transitioning out I went the last 4 months to Active Reserve and the new reservists at the time didnt get any bonuses and more than one was forced into an MOS because of either ASVAB scores or a this other leadership test I didnt have to take ( I guess it was like if you find a $20 on the ground what do you do type of test). They were also told at the MEPs they could change MOS after 6 months lolol.

My Daughter did year one of ROTC and shes going to commit for her sophomore year and do the Direct SMP program which is nice no basic training or AIT lol.

Was that between 2003-08?

What was your MOS, by the way? I believe as late as '09 tank mechanics were getting 50,000+ bonuses to RE-enlist.

By 2011, the Army was downsizing and incentives went the other way for lots of folks.

[*Synric*]

(07-16-2023, 12:48 PM)Dill Wrote: Was that between 2003-08?

What was your MOS, by the way? I believe as late as '09 tank mechanics were getting 50,000+ bonuses to RE-enlist.

By 2011, the Army was downsizing and incentives went the other way for lots of folks.

Yea I joined in 2002 at 17. I did Basic and AIT the summer between my Junior and Senior years in high school. I started out as a 12B but when I re-upped I switched to a 12R.

[*pally*]

(07-16-2023, 01:17 AM)samhain Wrote: Out of shape kids.  Drugs.

Out of shape kids and drugs are why they aren’t fit and are rejected for the military. Why they don’t attempt to join in the first place have different factors including…

1) pay-the civilian job market is good and pay is increasing outpacing what one can make in the military. Most kids are looking at short term fulfillment of a paycheck not long term benefits of military service. When jobs are scarce or low paying recruitment goes up.

2) elimination of JROTC and ROTC programs

3) fear of death, permanent disability, PTSD- all those Wounded Warrior and prevent veteran suicide have a negative effect on recruiting

4) multiple deployments into danger zones

5) no noble cause-no fight against some perceived evil

6) perceived levels of sexual harassment and assault

7) political fights-fights over pay, benefits, failing VA healthcare, accusations of “wokeness” magnifies minor or non existent concerns, base conditions, radicalization of the troops (both political and religious)

8) multi generational non military families-the elimination of the draft and no major conflicts means today’s kids often don’t have a parent or even a grandparent who served. Following in a parent’s footsteps is common in military families

[*Nately120*]

Additionally, the military is trying to recruit younger people, but politicians treat it as a literal facet of the republican party which markets itself towards mostly older white people.

Younger generations are more diverse and liberal, yet the political party associated with the army is speaking to and marketing itself towards retired white people. The Bush Kerry election was where I noticed the military become a Republican thing.  A democrat with 4 purple hearts was seen as being anti military or weak because the R was more important than the resume. 

Perception isn't everything, but I can see why the job path Trump and his supporters want you to take doesn't instantly appeal to gen z any more than going to a woke liberal arts college appeals to  conservative youth. Lines have been drawn yet again.

[GMDino]

(07-18-2023, 09:43 AM)Nately120 Wrote: Additionally, the military is trying to recruit younger people, but politicians treat it as a literal facet of the republican party which markets itself towards mostly older white people.

Younger generations are more diverse and liberal, yet the political party associated with the army is speaking to and marketing itself towards retired white people. The Bush Kerry election was where I noticed the military become a Republican thing.  A democrat with 4 purple hearts was seen as being anti military or weak because the R was more important than the resume. 

Perception isn't everything, but I can see why the job path Trump and his supporters want you to take doesn't instantly appeal to gen z any more than going to a woke liberal arts college appeals to  conservative youth. Lines have been drawn yet again.

And to add to this I have to laugh at the "this generation is lazy, weak, blah blah blah".  

In general every generation thinks the one before was stupid and the one after it isn't as good as they are.

These kids are weak or lazy...they are different.  They have a different life experience than we did or our parents did.  They had had the benefit of the internet their entire lives and can see what happens outside the bubble of their neighborhood/family.

I know kids who have signed up for the military, joined the police, protested guns, became involved with politics at an earlier age that we did...they are all over the map.  Just like we were.

And maybe, just maybe, if WE could break the pattern of "these kids don't know how hard I had it" and just let them fix the problems that made it hard, then maybe we'd have a better country and a better world.