Baghdadi's death: More details emerge from US raid

[GMDino]

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/baghdadi-monday-dle-intl/index.html

Always a good thing when one of the leaders of a terrorist organization is found and "removed".

Sadly Trump did Trump things to make himself the center of the story and managed to muck it all up, even faking the photo of him "watching" the raid.

He's why we can't have nice things right now.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(10-28-2019, 09:34 AM)GMDino Wrote: https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/baghdadi-monday-dle-intl/index.html

Always a good thing when one of the leaders of a terrorist organization is found and "removed".

Sadly Trump did Trump things to make himself the center of the story and managed to muck it all up, even faking the photo of him "watching" the raid.

He's why we can't have nice things right now.

It's rather more important to focus on the raid and not these meaningless side issues.  Do you charge Trump rent for living in your head 24/7?

[Belsnickel]

(10-28-2019, 10:07 AM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: It's rather more important to focus on the raid and not these meaningless side issues.  Do you charge Trump rent for living in your head 24/7?

I get what you're saying, here, but Trump made the story more about him than the raid itself and then the media took off with it. Hard to blame an individual for going in that direction.

[Au165]

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2019/10/27/trump-almost-ruined-the-operation-against-al-baghdadi/

Quote:Armed with that initial tip, the C.I.A. worked closely with Iraqi and Kurdish intelligence officials in Iraq and Syria to identify Mr. al-Baghdadi’s more precise whereabouts and to put spies in place to monitor his periodic movements, allowing American commandos to stage an assault Saturday in which President Trump said Mr. al-Baghdadi died.

But Mr. Trump’s abrupt decision to withdraw American forces from northern Syria disrupted the meticulous planning and forced Pentagon officials to press ahead with a risky, night raid before their ability to control troops and spies and reconnaissance aircraft disappeared, according to military, intelligence and counterterroism officials. Mr. al-Baghdadi’s death, they said, occurred largely in spite of Mr. Trump’s actions.

The officials praised the Kurds, who continued to provide information to the C.I.A. on Mr. al-Baghdadi even after Mr. Trump’s decision to withdraw the American troops left the Syrian Kurds to confront a Turkish offensive alone. The Syrian and Iraqi Kurds, one official said, provided more intelligence for the raid than any single country.

[GMDino]

(10-28-2019, 10:16 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: I get what you're saying, here, but Trump made the story more about him than the raid itself and then the media took off with it. Hard to blame an individual for going in that direction.

How do I make a post on the raid without mentioning the POTUS who announced it (on twitter) and held the press conference on it?

The raid was good.  The follow up was bad.

But then I don't pretend about how I feel about DJT either.  Honesty gets a bad rap around here sometimes.  

[Belsnickel]

Now that my commentary on commentary has been had, my thoughts on the raid itself:

I'm glad this individual is no longer in place. It's sad that he took three children with him. I'm curious if this would've ended differently had the timeline not been moved up drastically due to our withdrawal from Syria. In the long term I have to wonder what this will do to IS. I don't know about the organizational structure that he had in place, but it would be difficult to fill those shoes. He was a piece of shit, but he managed to be far more organized than Bin Laden. IS as an organization was much more difficult to manage than AQ logistically. So someone being able to fill in that void would be difficult.

All of that being said, does this mean IS weakens, or becomes more dangerous? Now there are ~15k fighters scattered in different parts of the globe with no central leader (that I know of, anyway). Do they put down their arms and slip back into society, or do they form in more locally focused organizations and we will now have dozens of different terrorist groups to deal with? That's left to be seen, but the death of Baghdadi is still a good thing.

As to how it was carried out, not notifying the Gang of Eight is concerning to me. I'm not saying that Trump did wrong in this--I don't know the actual rules/policies with this--but it signals an issue with cooperation between the branches. I'm curious if Republican leadership was left completely in the dark as well. It is also my understanding that this was a joint effort with Kurdish fighters, so it just reminds me how sad it is to me that we are abandoning them.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(10-28-2019, 10:27 AM)GMDino Wrote: How do I make a post on the raid without mentioning the POTUS who announced it (on twitter) and held the press conference on it?

The raid was good.  The follow up was bad.

But then I don't pretend about how I feel about DJT either.  Honesty gets a bad rap around here sometimes.  

It's rather more your constant comments about how he's "sad", a "loser", "why we can't have nice things".  Not a single person here is uncertain about how you perceive Trump.  Give the editorial flourishes a rest, I know I'm far from the only person who would appreciate it.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(10-28-2019, 10:16 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: I get what you're saying, here, but Trump made the story more about him than the raid itself and then the media took off with it. Hard to blame an individual for going in that direction.

Trump makes every positive story about himself, this isn't news to anyone.  I just find it odd/amusing/annoying how so many who, correctly, call out Trump for his poor behavior respond to said behavior in kind.

[Au165]

Stop congratulating Obama for killing Bin Laden. The Navy Seals killed Bin Laden. #debate

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 23, 2012

It is crazy, there is literally an old crazy Trump tweet for everything.

[GMDino]

(10-28-2019, 10:30 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: Now that my commentary on commentary has been had, my thoughts on the raid itself:

I'm glad this individual is no longer in place. It's sad that he took three children with him. I'm curious if this would've ended differently had the timeline not been moved up drastically due to our withdrawal from Syria. In the long term I have to wonder what this will do to IS. I don't know about the organizational structure that he had in place, but it would be difficult to fill those shoes. He was a piece of shit, but he managed to be far more organized than Bin Laden. IS as an organization was much more difficult to manage than AQ logistically. So someone being able to fill in that void would be difficult.

All of that being said, does this mean IS weakens, or becomes more dangerous? Now there are ~15k fighters scattered in different parts of the globe with no central leader (that I know of, anyway). Do they put down their arms and slip back into society, or do they form in more locally focused organizations and we will now have dozens of different terrorist groups to deal with? That's left to be seen, but the death of Baghdadi is still a good thing.

As to how it was carried out, not notifying the Gang of Eight is concerning to me. I'm not saying that Trump did wrong in this--I don't know the actual rules/policies with this--but it signals an issue with cooperation between the branches. I'm curious if Republican leadership was left completely in the dark as well. It is also my understanding that this was a joint effort with Kurdish fighters, so it just reminds me how sad it is to me that we are abandoning them.

To me it just reinforces the dysfunction present in the government right now caused by (IMHO) the POTUS.  There doesn't seem to be adults willing to tell him he's wrong anymore (Kelly may have been right).

On ISIS who knows?  They allegedly announced a new leader already.  I'd trust our intelligence community to have a good idea of what is going on but I agree with you that a rag-tag bunch of 15,000 with no leader is much harder to trace than when the orders are coming from a centralized location and person.

To DJT's credit he didn't say this was the end of ISIS and it's not. 

Just weird that we get a "big name" right as Trump is allowing Turkey to cleanse the land they wanted.  I won't say quid pro quo....just weird.

And Russia is saying they aren't sure they believe it.  I thought I read one article that said Russia claimed to have killed him a couple years ago too.

[Belsnickel]

(10-28-2019, 10:57 AM)GMDino Wrote: Just weird that we get a "big name" right as Trump is allowing Turkey to cleanse the land they wanted.  I won't say quid pro quo....just weird.

I've seen reports that this operation had been in the works for months and was still slated for a few months down the road. The timeline had to be moved up, though, because of the troop withdrawal.

[GMDino]

(10-28-2019, 11:01 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: I've seen reports that this operation had been in the works for months and was still slated for a few months down the road. The timeline had to be moved up, though, because of the troop withdrawal.

More proof of dysfunction.

[GMDino]

(10-28-2019, 10:52 AM)Au165 Wrote:

Stop congratulating Obama for killing Bin Laden. The Navy Seals killed Bin Laden. #debate

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 23, 2012

It is crazy, there is literally an old crazy Trump tweet for everything.

Eh, he doesn't care.  Trump claimed during his announcement Sunday morning no one ever heard of Bin Laden before Trump wrote the US should kill him in a book before 9/11.

Nothing in that statement is true except that Trump made the claim Sunday morning.

DJT is fluid.  Everything is about what he "believes" and how he feels right then.  The kind of impulsiveness most of us lose as adults and a bad trait for any elected official let alone the POTUS.

[Goalpost]

Washington Post...ha

https://www.businessinsider.com/washington-post-isis-leader-baghdadi-parody-wapodeathnotices-2019-10

[Dill]

(10-28-2019, 10:30 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: All of that being said, does this mean IS weakens, or becomes more dangerous? Now there are ~15k fighters scattered in different parts of the globe with no central leader (that I know of, anyway). Do they put down their arms and slip back into society, or do they form in more locally focused organizations and we will now have dozens of different terrorist groups to deal with? That's left to be seen, but the death of Baghdadi is still a good thing.

As to how it was carried out, not notifying the Gang of Eight is concerning to me. I'm not saying that Trump did wrong in this--I don't know the actual rules/policies with this--but it signals an issue with cooperation between the branches. I'm curious if Republican leadership was left completely in the dark as well. It is also my understanding that this was a joint effort with Kurdish fighters, so it just reminds me how sad it is to me that we are abandoning them.

My thoughts on two points here:

1. The reason ISIS was so well organized was because its command structure was composed largely of ex-Saddam officers who knew how to set up and operate modern military bureaucracy. If enough of that group remains at large, or enough trained in its workings, then it is hard not to see either the old ISIS return or a new incarnation of it, possibly under a new name.  But not nearly as powerful or influential. Weaker than Al Nusra, if the 9,000 or so fighters currently in custody don't go free. They won't have armor and artillery any more, which was crucial to their ability to take and hold territory before.

Baghdadi's death will have some immediate impact on how well ISIS will reconstitute in Syria in the current apparent vacuum appearing south of the Turkish safe zone.  By that I mean there may be some struggle among the remaining leadership for the top spot. He had a line of succession six deep, last year, but who knows how many of those are still alive. And they have learned how to function/fight in decentralized fashion. That tends to produce new charismatic leaders.

Whether the original group returns, or returns in strength, its most worrisome legacy is that it established a model which continues to be replicated in Africa and central Asia.  It's media savy was instrumental in inspiring "martyrs" in North America and Europe, but the "franchises" like Boko Haram have not had that success. It's not clear whether that can work again.

2. As far as notifying the gang of eight, I agree with your comments. Were Trump introducing new forces into Syria that would be a problem. Right now I don't see any legal violation. Doesn't fall under the War Powers Act.

HOWEVER, if he wanted to work with Congress better in the future, that would have been a good thing to do. The government is leaking now precisely because the top dog is erratic and breaking laws which concern his staff and cabinet. The refusal to inform just looks like more pique. His personal anger and pettiness dominate national governance.

Trump made a BIG show of thanking Turkey and Russia, who were impediments to the kill operation, with a barely audible shout out to the Kurds who were our real eyes and ears in the region in the months leading up to the attack. Even those who don't much care if the Kurds bled for us (cuz we paid them, right?) should see that so unnecessarily alienating them can't bode well for consistent policy, for possible future needs. "Leadership" without judgment.

[Dill]

(10-28-2019, 10:27 AM)GMDino Wrote: How do I make a post on the raid without mentioning the POTUS who announced it (on twitter) and held the press conference on it?
The raid was good.  The follow up was bad.
But then I don't pretend about how I feel about DJT either.  Honesty gets a bad rap around here sometimes.  

I don't think anyone should discuss the raid without mentioning/discussing Trump. Even it killing Baghdadi is a "win," it does matter if the timeline of the raid had to be moved up and we had to work around Russia and Turkey because of an impulsive green light given Erdogan two weeks ago, while the US pullback leaves any follow up/consolidation unclear. It matters that he appears to have put more thought into self marketing his "situation room" image than in actual policy.

However, I think us Trump critics need to make it clear WHY events like the Baghdadi raid are not separable from Trump's policy and how Trump policy is not separate from his personality--from his personal fears, imagined conspiracies, desired attention from authoritarian leaders, contempt for his own staff, limited knowledge, lack of self discipline, petty anger etc .

Many Americans don't really grasp why Trump "making the raid about himself" should be of serious concern.  They understand very well what bad judgement means in a school superintendent or a hospital administrator or a football coach or a front office, but have difficulty seeing why that's a big issue in someone who "does it all the time" while in charge of foreign policy and thousands of lives. Where people like us see substance, they only see "style," separate from events and facts on the ground. That's why its important to connect the style to substance.

[GMDino]

I wonder why he allowed himself to be in a fake photo with Trump other than just following orders...

REPORTER: Gen. Milley, President Trump described al-Baghdadi as 'whimpering & crying' before he died. Can you confirm those details?

GEN. MILLEY: I don't know what the source of that was. pic.twitter.com/eWA12nH3Lc

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 28, 2019

[*bfine32*]

Why must we always try to find the gray cloud behind the silver lining? The raid was a good thing and very successful. The rest is white noise.

[ballsofsteel]

They identified Buttwad by his dna. They took a sample from his shit stained underwear that we saved from GBay.
The sectary of defense said Trump deserved alot of credit for giving the "go ahead". Good job Donald.

[GMDino]

(10-28-2019, 05:08 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Why must we always try to find the gray cloud behind the silver lining? The raid was a good thing and very successful. The rest is white noise.

Because your boy can't let the sun shine on anyone but himself.

Blame Trump for making the story about him.