Bengals predicted to win most games

[Soonerpeace]

Pro Football Focus released its latest 2023 season simulation and has the Bengals finishing with the most wins this season.

PFF’s latest simulation has Cincinnati earning a league-high 11.36 wins and drafting 32nd overall.

This simulation was only for the regular season.

Of course, the Chiefs finished right behind the Bengals with 11.17 wins, and they are the only two teams in the simulation to reach over 11 wins in 2023.

That’s crazy with Joe Mixon at RB . Seems low for us and KC

[HarleyDog]

Since it seems we're staying with Mixon, I hope they have a backup plan and keep him on a short leash. He either performs or by game 3 we give his duties to someone else.

[Soonerpeace]

(07-10-2023, 09:54 AM)HarleyDog Wrote: Since it seems we're staying with Mixon, I hope they have a backup plan and keep him on a short leash. He either performs or by game 3 we give his duties to someone else.

They aren’t worried in the least if you listen to Zac on Solomon Wilcots podcast. They’d been more aggressive keeping Samaje or drafted a back sooner or gone after Cook or Zeke. They like Trayveon

[HarleyDog]

(07-10-2023, 10:12 AM)Soonerpeace Wrote: They aren’t worried in the least if you listen to Zac on Solomon Wilcots podcast. They’d been more aggressive keeping Samaje or drafted a back sooner or gone after Cook or Zeke. They like Trayveon

Good to know. If their gonna roll with Trayveon, I prefer they do so out the gate.

[Soonerpeace]

(07-10-2023, 10:18 AM)HarleyDog Wrote: Good to know. If their gonna roll with Trayveon, I prefer they do so out the gate.

As a backup it appears so. After listening to Taylor’s effusive praise of Joe’s abilities on Solomon Wilcot’s podcast sounds like Mixon would have to fumble on the goal line numerous times in order to get replaced.

[Soonerpeace]

Solomon Wilcots “ I’m sitting in pubs and coffee houses and get questions all the time about Joe Mixon and I keep telling them he’s a rare find and opposing coaches tell me we wish we had him” Zac Taylor “ Joe’s so physical especially when he’s out in space. Even if these guys take him down they pay the price for it and eventually you see on film they don’t want to do it anymore. It’s kinda Like when he makes them miss or runs them over. When he gets on the perimeter he helps he helps Tee and Ja Mar by wearing down those guys guarding them by wearing them down. He’s a great leader and before the game the opposing coaches are moaning about going up against him. We like his efficiency and in the passing game we love his effectiveness.

(06-21-2023, 01:28 PM)depthchart Wrote: Joe Mixon weighed in at 228 pounds at his Combine when he was just 21 years old and ran a 4.45 forty yard dash, so he was in shape.
Early in his career he may have dropped down to 220 pounds but now at age 26 I believe that he is playing at 225 pounds plus to 230 pounds.

Solomon Wilcotts should know (as a former NFL Safety) what it means to tackle a player of Mixon's size and strength during an NFL game.
Wilcotts said "Even if these guys take him down they pay the price for it". "He helps Tee and JaMar by wearing down those guys guarding them by wearing them down".

The Bengals appear to see a Strategic Advantage in having Mixon wear down defenders that may somewhat offset his lack of eye popping yards per carry or making people miss statistics. Similar to how large 330 plus pound Offensive Lineman can use their weight to wear down defenders as games draw on into the 3rd and 4th quarters. Anyone who may have wrestled in High School like I did would likely know how just a few extra pounds on an opponent can wear on you as a match goes on and on. It is a factor that Solomon Wilcotts implies is a Real Factor that can be used as one more tool to help a Team win at the NFL Level.

[HarleyDog]

(07-10-2023, 10:27 AM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Solomon Wilcots “ I’m sitting in pubs and coffee houses and get questions all the time about Joe Mixon and I keep telling them he’s a rare find and opposing coaches tell me we wish we had him” Zac Taylor “ Joe’s so physical especially when he’s out in space. Even if these guys take him down they pay the price for it and eventually you see on film they don’t want to do it anymore. It’s kinda Like when he makes them miss or runs them over. When he gets on the perimeter he helps he helps Tee and Ja Mar by wearing down those guys guarding them by wearing them down. He’s a great leader and before the game the opposing coaches are moaning about going up against him. We like his efficiency and in the passing game we love his effectiveness.

IYO, is this worth trading for production? Ideally, we want both, and since we are a pass-first team now, maybe we overlook the fact he only had 1 game over 100+ yds rushing and 5 games under 30 yards rushing last year? With these stats, I could see him having more benefits in a FB role. If he's that abusive, but his YPC at 3.9 in 22, this makes more sense to me. Use more of a lead blocker role. But I guess not if that's not in the Bengals' offense. 

[Soonerpeace]

(07-10-2023, 10:46 AM)HarleyDog Wrote: IYO, is this worth trading for production? Ideally, we want both, and since we are a pass-first team now, maybe we overlook the fact he only had 1 game over 100+ yds rushing and 5 games under 30 yards rushing last year? With these stats, I could see him having more benefits in a FB role. If he's that abusive, but his YPC at 3.9 in 22, this makes more sense to me. Use more of a lead blocker role. But I guess not if that's not in the Bengals' offense. 

The coaches I was told feel it’s more about the OL. He had a big game against Carolina and the Bills and averaged 5 yards a carry in several games. The coaches grade and look at the films. They immediately know if it’s the OL or Mixon. They could have dumped Mixon and saved a lot of salary cap. Seems a no brainer but they didn’t. Could have drafted one early like the Charbonett kid out of UCLA. But did they? Nope. They could have been more aggressive in keeping Perine but didn’t. They are perfectly comfortable with Mixon it’s crystal clear.

[HarleyDog]

(07-10-2023, 10:57 AM)Soonerpeace Wrote: The coaches I was told feel it’s more about the OL. He had a big game against Carolina and the Bills and averaged 5 yards a carry in several games. The coaches grade and look at the films. They immediately know if it’s the OL or Mixon. They could have dumped Mixon and saved a lot of salary cap. Seems a no brainer but they didn’t. Could have drafted one early like the Charbonett kid out of UCLA. But did they? Nope. They could have been more aggressive in keeping Perine but didn’t. They are perfectly comfortable with Mixon it’s crystal clear.

Excellent points. In Zac I trust.

[grampahol]

Can't wait for that .36th win! 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-10-2023, 10:46 AM)HarleyDog Wrote: IYO, is this worth trading for production? Ideally, we want both, and since we are a pass-first team now, maybe we overlook the fact he only had 1 game over 100+ yds rushing and 5 games under 30 yards rushing last year? With these stats, I could see him having more benefits in a FB role. If he's that abusive, but his YPC at 3.9 in 22, this makes more sense to me. Use more of a lead blocker role. But I guess not if that's not in the Bengals' offense. 

He was credited with only 8 broken tackles as a runner in 2022 (and just 1.5 yards per carry after contact). I feel like he had at least that many tackles against him where nothing more than a hand touched his leg and brought him down.

[*jason*]

(07-10-2023, 10:18 AM)HarleyDog Wrote: Good to know. If their gonna roll with Trayveon, I prefer they do so out the gate.

Going into his 5th season... The breakout is coming. Feels like coachspeak to me.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-10-2023, 02:11 PM)jason Wrote: Going into his 5th season... The breakout is coming. Feels like coachspeak to me.

If you really think hard about it, he's BASICALLY a rookie this year.   

[*jason*]

(07-10-2023, 02:20 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: If you really think hard about it, he's BASICALLY a rookie this year.   

You really only have to squint a lil bit.

I think he's just a poor man's Cedric Peerman.

[Soonerpeace]

(07-10-2023, 12:34 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: He was credited with only 8 broken tackles as a runner in 2022 (and just 1.5 yards per carry after contact). I feel like he had at least that many tackles against him where nothing more than a hand touched his leg and brought him down.

That peaked my interest. Mixon had a rough year but he was #10 best rushing back in 2021 and way ahead of Zeke and Dalvin and slightly ahead of Chubb.

Even in Joe’s worst year of his career ….


PFF grades for 2022: Mixon ranked 13th of 60 qualifying halfbacks with an overall grade of 80.8, his highest in six seasons despite his stat production being down in the running game (his receiving numbers were up). He was 22nd of 51 halfbacks in run grade (80.9) and he was seventh of 60 halfbacks in receiving grade (77.0).

And PFF’s Trevor Sikkema ranks him the #22 best overall back going into 2023.

And according to PFF and not theleonardleap’s lol PFF says he had he had 23 rushing forced missed tackles and Rotowire has him in the 83% of all running backs for positive run %.

Mixon ranked seventh in PFF receiving grade among RBs who received at least 40 targets last year. He finished 18th in this same measure in 2021.

[jj22]

(07-10-2023, 10:57 AM)Soonerpeace Wrote: The coaches I was told feel it’s more about the OL. He had a big game against Carolina and the Bills and averaged 5 yards a carry in several games. The coaches grade and look at the films. They immediately know if it’s the OL or Mixon. They could have dumped Mixon and saved a lot of salary cap. Seems a no brainer but they didn’t. Could have drafted one early like the Charbonett kid out of UCLA. But did they? Nope. They could have been more aggressive in keeping Perine but didn’t. They are perfectly comfortable with Mixon it’s crystal clear.

They seem to think it's the Oline. But I feel like both Perine and Gio proved that wrong as they were both able to star when given the opportunity behind those same lines. I'm not sold it was all the Oline.

[Soonerpeace]

(07-10-2023, 03:01 PM)jj22 Wrote: They seem to think it's the Oline. But I feel like both Perine and Gio proved that wrong as they were both able to star when given the opportunity behind those same lines. I'm not sold it was all the Oline.

Respectfully they do look at the film exhaustively. Their jobs are on the line. Their responsibility to the team to win is foremost. Yet they didn’t draft Charbonett or aggressively try to keep Samaje. They didn’t trade for anyone or go get one in FA? Mixon with all his off the field issues could have been waived. They could have saved a bunch of money.

So why is he still here?

[Soonerpeace]

ESPN ranks us with 5th best roster. 1. KC 2. Philly 3. Bills 4. Dolphins

5. Cincinnati Bengals
Strongest unit: Wide receiver. The Bengals' wideouts paced the NFL in receiving touchdowns (25) last season, despite superstar duo Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both missing substantial game action (not to mention that the Bengals played only 16 games).
Chase, 23, and Higgins, 24, are early in their prime and form the league's best WR duo, whereas veteran Tyler Boyd remains one of the NFL's top slot receivers.
-- Clay
Weakest unit: Safety. Cincinnati's safety position is in transition after Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell departed during free agency. The succession plan will include 2022 No. 31 pick Dax Hill (141 snaps), ex-Rams starter Nick Scott and third-round rookie
Jordan Battle. The future might be bright, but some development will be required. -- Clay
X factor for 2023: RT Jonah Williams. According to ESPN Analytics research, his 84% pass block win rate last season ranked 55th out of 64 tackles, and he has never posted an average PBWR for a tackle. Williams is on the right side now, but unless he improves on his past performance, he's still a weakness in quarterback
Joe Burrow's protection. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: RB Chase Brown. I'm keeping an eye on Brown, a fifth-round pick who forced 73
missed tackles (fourth-most in FBS) last season at
Illinois, because Joe Mixon averaged between minus
-0.2 and 0.2 rush yards over expectation per carry in the past four seasons. Brown is cheaper and could be
Mixon's successor. -- Walder

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-10-2023, 02:36 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: That peaked my interest. Mixon had a rough year but he was #10 best rushing back in 2021 and way ahead of Zeke and Dalvin and slightly ahead of Chubb.

Even in Joe’s worst year of his career ….


PFF grades for 2022: Mixon ranked 13th of 60 qualifying halfbacks with an overall grade of 80.8, his highest in six seasons despite his stat production being down in the running game (his receiving numbers were up). He was 22nd of 51 halfbacks in run grade (80.9) and he was seventh of 60 halfbacks in receiving grade (77.0).

And PFF’s Trevor Sikkema ranks him the #22 best overall back going into 2023.

And according to PFF and not theleonardleap’s lol PFF says he had he had 23 rushing forced missed tackles and Rotowire has him in the 83% of all running backs for positive run %.

Mixon ranked seventh in PFF receiving grade among RBs who received at least 40 targets last year. He finished 18th in this same measure in 2021.

I will counter that with just 1 sentence....

PFF had Andy Dalton as the 7th highest rated QB in the NFL in 2023.


- - - - - - - -


Absurdities from PFF aside, Mixon will always have 1-2 games in a year where you're like "oh man, that is potentially the Mixon we could have" but then it's balanced out by the rest of the season being meh-to-terrible.

In his last 36 regular season games (the last 3 years), he's had 19 of them at under 3.5ypc. He just has too many stinkers to keep believing in the couple games a year where he shows what could-have-been.

I never claimed my broken tackle stats was from PFF. It's on PFR.

[Soonerpeace]

(07-10-2023, 03:37 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I will counter that with just 1 sentence....

PFF had Andy Dalton as the 7th highest rated QB in the NFL in 2023.


- - - - - - - -


Absurdities from PFF aside, Mixon will always have 1-2 games in a year where you're like "oh man, that is potentially the Mixon we could have" but then it's balanced out by the rest of the season being meh-to-terrible.

In his last 36 regular season games (the last 3 years), he's had 19 of them at under 3.5ypc. He just has too many stinkers to keep believing in the couple games a year where he shows what could-have-been.

I never claimed my broken tackle stats was from PFF. It's on PFR.

Well the Mixon debate is a controversial and a stimulator of discussion for sure. You never know but it appears they feel very comfortable with him. It’s a few weeks before camp. They get paid the big bucks in a business that’s highly scrutinized by owners. But the biggest scrutinizers are your team leaders. They don’t want any weak links. Mixon likely has survived in 2023. We’ll be cussing and discussing him all season. It’ll be interesting to see if he plays like 2021 ( which rewarded him top 40 player in the entire NFL regardless of position by his peers) or after 2022 little respect here.