Biden's approval ratings drop

[Goalpost]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

He still clings to a somewhat positive rating on COVID....he's about plus 5 on that. But since late August, the Afghan mission, he's gone the wrong way overall, and is now over 50 percent disapproval at this time.

[*Nately120*]

I'm surprised his rating was as high as it was to begin with. The guy is a flop spinoff TV show in president form. But there was nothing better on so we had to tune in for one season.

[HarleyDog]

He's a joke.

[BigPapaKain]

Oh no - a sub 50% approval rating. That puts him in line with pretty much every president for the last 30 years.

[*Nately120*]

(10-21-2021, 10:55 AM)HarleyDog Wrote: He's a joke.

Imagine how people who don't love Trump feel about things. 

[HarleyDog]

(10-21-2021, 11:10 AM)BigPapaKain Wrote: Oh no - a sub 50% approval rating. That puts him in line with pretty much every president for the last 30 years.

I think it's worse than the numbers show. But then again, I've never put much faith in polls.

[*Nately120*]

(10-21-2021, 11:53 AM)HarleyDog Wrote: I think it's worse than the numbers show. But then again, I've never put much faith in polls.

What makes you think their methodology is off?

[HarleyDog]

(10-21-2021, 11:59 AM)Nately120 Wrote: What makes you think their methodology is off?

Polls are too easily manipulated. Hillary Clinton should agree.

[BigPapaKain]

(10-21-2021, 11:53 AM)HarleyDog Wrote: I think it's worse than the numbers show. But then again, I've never put much faith in polls.

The same thing could be said for every other president, too. 

It's all subjective and based strongly on how the pollsters are wording the questions and the political bent of the reporting body.

[*Nately120*]

(10-21-2021, 12:01 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: Polls are too easily manipulated. Hillary Clinton should agree.

Meh, in modern polling only Carter in 76 and Trump in 2016 won the presidency after being predicted to lose it and both were unpopular presidents who were voted out after a single term.

Plus, FiveThirtyEight was right about Biden winning in 2020 after they realized they underestimated the emerging "non college educated" vote shift towards the new Trump-style GOP.


Also, in way too early polls, Trump is the favorite to win the white house in 2024, so I'd wager a bunch of liberals are going to be joining you in hoping that the polls are wrong.

[KillerGoose]

It’s been under 50% for a little bit now, I believe. Early August. I love 538 for all election data and his approval rating is 43.8%, only better than Trump’s 37.9%. One thing to keep in mind is it is still very early; even Trump saw his rating rise, though it never went higher than 45.8%. Biden might see an increase if the infrastructure bill passes.

[GMDino]

An unscientific poll conducted by reading through my FB friend list show it right at 50% too.

Given the way we are divided as a country around 50% might be the best he can do...lol.

[*Nately120*]

(10-21-2021, 12:53 PM)GMDino Wrote: An unscientific poll conducted by reading through my FB friend list show it right at 50% too.

Given the way we are divided as a country around 50% might be the best he can do...lol.

I think the thing with the internet age is that we are less likely to see the huge swings in approval rating that we used to.  

Biden's range at the moment is at 14 points, Trump's at most was 15, Obama's was 29, while presidents like Clinton/Bush #1/Reagan saw a range of 40+ percentage points between their highs and lows.

I just don't see enough people being able to change their opinions, for good or bad, in the age where some googling is all it takes to find something telling you that you are right.

[CarolinaBengalFanGuy]

(10-21-2021, 11:59 AM)Nately120 Wrote: What makes you think their methodology is off?

The presidential polls were way off for 16 and 20

[*Nately120*]

(10-22-2021, 03:17 AM)CarolinaBengalFanGuy Wrote: The presidential polls were way off for 16 and 20

Ah so you think Biden's approval rating is probably not as low as it looks?

[KillerGoose]

(10-22-2021, 03:17 AM)CarolinaBengalFanGuy Wrote: The presidential polls were way off for 16 and 20

No they weren’t. The 2020 polls pretty much nailed it. They predicted the correct winner in 48/50 states. Biden’s final margin in the poll aggregation was 8.4 points. He won by 4.4, which is a pretty standard margin of error. This is why Biden was such a huge favorite to win the election in the first place; he had such a large polling lead that he could survive a normal polling error and STILL win by several points.

At the end of the day, the 2020 polls predicted a commanding win for Biden, and he got a comfortable win instead. He 2016 polls predicted a narrow victory for Hillary, and Trump got a narrow victory.

[*Nately120*]

(10-22-2021, 09:31 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: No they weren’t. The 2020 polls pretty much nailed it. They predicted the correct winner in 48/50 states. Biden’s final margin in the poll aggregation was 8.4 points. He won by 4.4, which is a pretty standard margin of error. This is why Biden was such a huge favorite to win the election in the first place; he had such a large polling lead that he could survive a normal polling error and STILL win by several points.

At the end of the day, the 2020 polls predicted a commanding win for Biden, and he got a comfortable win instead. He 2016 polls predicted a narrow victory for Hillary, and Trump got a narrow victory.

Additionally, fivethirtyeight addressed at length what they didnt account for in their 2016 poll and what they learned and how they adjusted based upon that to more accurately firecast 2020. 

There are hours of discussion about their sampling and research methods and demographics and 2016 compared to prior elections and so on.  Just saying the 2016 election was the first time the candidate who probably wouldn't win was the one who did win since Carter in 76, ergo polls are wrong is overly simplified. 

Trump's influence and appeal was hard to gague but they learned from 16 and provided a clearer picture in 2020. 

[KillerGoose]

(10-22-2021, 09:48 AM)Nately120 Wrote: Additionally, fivethirtyeight addressed at length what they didnt account for in their 2016 poll and what they learned and how they adjusted based upon that to more accurately firecast 2020. 

There are hours of discussion about their sampling and research methods and demographics and 2016 compared to prior elections and so on.  Just saying the 2016 election was the first time the candidate who probably wouldn't win was the one who did win since Carter in 76, ergo polls are wrong is overly simplified. 

Trump's influence and appeal was hard to gague but they learned from 16 and provided a clearer picture in 2020. 

Yes, exactly. When it comes to polling and elections, FiveThirtyEight is as good as it gets. I love their content and I was on that website nonstop during election season.

[*Nately120*]

(10-22-2021, 09:52 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: Yes, exactly. When it comes to polling and elections, FiveThirtyEight is as good as it gets. I love their content and I was on that website nonstop during election season.

And thry used the 2016 election as a learning experience as discussed it in depth rather than making excuses.  

The weather channel said 76% chance of rain today and it didn't rain.  Meterology is dead.  No one knows what the weather will be now. 

[Belsnickel]

I mean, Biden sucks. He sucks less than Trump, but it was the proverbial shit sandwich and giant douche choice.