Bidenomics - How is he doing???

[Luvnit2]

https://apnews.com/article/biden-poll-economy-survey-jobs-inflation-b3c77cb208f96f9b039cf48cbc4fb67b
In a major economic speech in Chicago, Biden said his administration’s efforts were sparking recovery after Republican policies had crushed America’s middle class. But the poll said only one in three U.S. adults approve of his economic leadership.

That 34% figure is even lower than his overall approval rating of 41%, according to the survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

People feel the poor economy, they feel inflation has risen
Since the beginning of Biden's presidency, prices have gone up 18.3 percent, with, again, only Carter having a higher inflation rate at this point in his presidency. Five of the six other presidents had rates that were 10 percent lower than Biden's — or more.Mar 15, 2023

Biden and his team can tout Bidenomics being great, but the facts are reducing inflation from the previous year is not reducing inflation since he took office in 2021. They can try and message away his economy, but te middle class who are having trouble putting food on the table and paying their rent outnumber those who can withstand high inflation.

Will a 34% approval rating get him elected again? Or will Newsome take over who has a worse record on the economy in California than Biden does in the US. The good news is red states like Florida are thriving due to DeSantos great job so his numbers actually inflate Biden's record high inflation number.

[Belsnickel]

Honestly, this is one of the biggest hurdles Biden is facing. The realities of the economy do not match what the perception is. First thing's first, there isn't much, if anything, POTUS can do about inflation. However, that is not the way people see things. What our government can do is pull policy levers to reduce the felt impact of inflation, which they have done a lot of. Our economic numbers are better than any other G7 nation post-pandemic. Our inflation rate is better, our growth is better, our job numbers are better.

To be clear, I am not saying this is all Biden's doing. This is a joint effort between a lot of different groups. But the public tends to shoulder the economy on POTUS. Because of this, and because the perception of our economic situation does not match reality in this country, the White House has a huge messaging problem to overcome.

[KillerGoose]

I think the conversation of economy is very complex. Biden touching on economic recovery is very true - the economy is recovering well. People can tout unemployment rates as a marker, or the real GDP recovery, both of which are positive. Inflation is going down, but one important thing to note is that there is always inflation. Inflation can be a healthy sign of an economy if it is in the right spot (roughly 2% per year). I think there is COVID fatigue and people are not only tired of hearing about it, but they are tired of it being the reason for something. However, many of the economic issues that the world is facing, including the U.S., stem from COVID. Biden inherited a very difficult situation and has, overall, done a fine job. I don't think public opinion not recognizing that is evidence that it is bad, but I also think that many people overrate the power a president has over the economy.

[Goalpost]

If you look at 'real' income, which is what you make in income when you account for inflation.....we went 24 consecutive months where real income dropped, or was negative. May of this year was the initial month it finally reversed.

[Mickeypoo]

(07-10-2023, 01:14 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I think the conversation of economy is very complex. Biden touching on economic recovery is very true - the economy is recovering well. People can tout unemployment rates as a marker, or the real GDP recovery, both of which are positive. Inflation is going down, but one important thing to note is that there is always inflation. Inflation can be a healthy sign of an economy if it is in the right spot (roughly 2% per year). I think there is COVID fatigue and people are not only tired of hearing about it, but they are tired of it being the reason for something. However, many of the economic issues that the world is facing, including the U.S., stem from COVID. Biden inherited a very difficult situation and has, overall, done a fine job. I don't think public opinion not recognizing that is evidence that it is bad, but I also think that many people overrate the power a president has over the economy.

So when will the recovery start to effect all the big increases in the bills the average American is dealing with?

Gas is still sitting at 3.65.  Was 2.20 when Biden took office
MY NG and electric bills are up 100% and 50%
Groceries are still 50%+ higher then when Biden took over.

I pay approx. 600-800 more a month since Biden took over and I don't believe I am alone.  The war on fossil fuels isn't helping.

[HarleyDog]

(07-10-2023, 01:14 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: many people overrate the power a president has over the economy.

True. However, the president does appoint many responsible for changing its course. To what extent I'm not sure, but he does have some control. I thought the economy was doing quite well until he took office. 

[*michaelsean*]

(07-10-2023, 01:12 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: Honestly, this is one of the biggest hurdles Biden is facing. The realities of the economy do not match what the perception is. First thing's first, there isn't much, if anything, POTUS can do about inflation. However, that is not the way people see things. What our government can do is pull policy levers to reduce the felt impact of inflation, which they have done a lot of. Our economic numbers are better than any other G7 nation post-pandemic. Our inflation rate is better, our growth is better, our job numbers are better.

To be clear, I am not saying this is all Biden's doing. This is a joint effort between a lot of different groups. But the public tends to shoulder the economy on POTUS. Because of this, and because the perception of our economic situation does not match reality in this country, the White House has a huge messaging problem to overcome.

They sort of walk into the blame by promising how awesome they are going to make the economy.

[*pally*]

(07-10-2023, 02:00 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: So when will the recovery start to effect all the big increases in the bills the average American is dealing with?

Gas is still sitting at 3.65.  Was 2.20 when Biden took office
MY NG and electric bills are up 100% and 50%
Groceries are still 50%+ higher then when Biden took over.

I pay approx. 600-800 more a month since Biden took over and I don't believe I am alone.  The war on fossil fuels isn't helping.

Massive profits by oil and gas companies aren't helping either

Gasoline prices were artificially low due to lack of demand in Jan 2021.  Do you want to go back to the lockdowns and unemployment of the pandemic just to get cheap gas again?

The food sector has been hit with a lot of crises (most of which can't be controlled) in the past few years from natural disasters (fires, floods, droughts, excessive heat or cold), diseases (avian flu killing poultry as well as the avocados, grapes, and grain crops have all been hit recently), climate change (rising average temperatures affects growing seasons, yields, animal reproduction, etc) Political uncertainty is affecting other food sources worldwide

That's the challenge with economics,  things can never be narrowed down to a single factor affecting it.

I saw you are in NY...are you away from the flood zones.  My cousins who live in Orange County said it was awful up in their neck of the woods

[Belsnickel]

(07-10-2023, 02:00 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: So when will the recovery start to effect all the big increases in the bills the average American is dealing with?

Gas is still sitting at 3.65.  Was 2.20 when Biden took office
MY NG and electric bills are up 100% and 50%
Groceries are still 50%+ higher then when Biden took over.

I pay approx. 600-800 more a month since Biden took over and I don't believe I am alone.  The war on fossil fuels isn't helping.

But what you're talking about is a global issue, not just one tied to the US. The fact remains that the global economic situation is affecting us less because of the efforts by our government than other nations. You're highlighting the exact problem I brought up.

[KillerGoose]

(07-10-2023, 02:00 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: So when will the recovery start to effect all the big increases in the bills the average American is dealing with?

Gas is still sitting at 3.65.  Was 2.20 when Biden took office
MY NG and electric bills are up 100% and 50%
Groceries are still 50%+ higher then when Biden took over.

I pay approx. 600-800 more a month since Biden took over and I don't believe I am alone.  The war on fossil fuels isn't helping.

Well, it isn't just Americans. It is a global issue. Gas is high around the world, but is slowly trending downwards as oil prices have stabilized and supply is going up. Inflation has rocked the entire world, not just America. 

Bels is right. It is an optics issue for the current administration. The issues that Americans are facing are a global issue and not Biden or anyone else's fault in particular but he will shoulder the blame here. It is residual effects from COVID and the Russo-Ukrainian war. Many people erroneously believe that the president has a lot more power than he does. For instance, on the gas topic. People love to talk about how cheap gas was under the Trump administration, but a fun little factoid is that gas actually went up under the Trump administration. The cheapest gas of nearly the last 20 years was under the Obama administration in 2016. His 2015 year also had low gas prices. Now, of course, this wasn't because Obama did something amazing that brought low gas prices. It happened due to production booms in the U.S. and the market dictated that price. The U.S. is producing a lot of oil right now, close to all-time high amounts of oil. I would be careful about believing the "War on Fossil Fuels" headlines. I'm not saying they are completely false as the Biden administration is really incentivizing renewables, but the U.S. oil industry is doing very, very well. 

I can't provide an answer of when that recovery will hit the average American, but I can say that the president gets undue criticism and praise over things like this when it really isn't under his control. This isn't occurring due to Biden, it is just occurring as a part of worldwide occurrences. 

[KillerGoose]

(07-10-2023, 02:07 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: True. However, the president does appoint many responsible for changing its course. To what extent I'm not sure, but he does have some control. I thought the economy was doing quite well until he took office. 

Well, the economy had just tanked when he took over. Q2 of 2020 saw the worst real GDP drop since the Great Depression. It started on the way to recovery and the Biden administration has carried it through that. I would argue, though, that they aren't really doing anything major that is causing it. There have been good bills passed such as the Infrastructure bill and the CHIPS act, but those aren't really affecting the economy right now. The economy is just a machine and doing what it does. As long as inflation keeps decreasing, things should level out and the economy will continue to improve as people spend more. 

The damage is already done, though. There are certain stereotypes about the economy and Dems/Repubs that aren't really true, but are widely believed. Many people are going to pin it on the Biden admin, fair or not, and he'll get grilled over it. It'll be up to him to try to explain what is going on and win people over. 

[Luvnit2]

(07-10-2023, 01:12 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: Honestly, this is one of the biggest hurdles Biden is facing. The realities of the economy do not match what the perception is. First thing's first, there isn't much, if anything, POTUS can do about inflation. However, that is not the way people see things. What our government can do is pull policy levers to reduce the felt impact of inflation, which they have done a lot of. Our economic numbers are better than any other G7 nation post-pandemic. Our inflation rate is better, our growth is better, our job numbers are better.

To be clear, I am not saying this is all Biden's doing. This is a joint effort between a lot of different groups. But the public tends to shoulder the economy on POTUS. Because of this, and because the perception of our economic situation does not match reality in this country, the White House has a huge messaging problem to overcome.

Simply not accurate. In Biden's case his attack on fossil fuel and adding more regulations hurt the economy. The price of gasoline impacts everything in the supply chain. It killed inflation year one in office. It is still impacting food prices and prices at the pump for every American.

Policy does and can have a positive impact on the economy. People can hate Trump, but he had the country on the verge of energy independence. Contrast Biden who was forced to import dirty oil from other countries and dipped into reserves.

[Luvnit2]

(07-10-2023, 04:12 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Well, the economy had just tanked when he took over. Q2 of 2020 saw the worst real GDP drop since the Great Depression. It started on the way to recovery and the Biden administration has carried it through that. I would argue, though, that they aren't really doing anything major that is causing it. There have been good bills passed such as the Infrastructure bill and the CHIPS act, but those aren't really affecting the economy right now. The economy is just a machine and doing what it does. As long as inflation keeps decreasing, things should level out and the economy will continue to improve as people spend more. 

The damage is already done, though. There are certain stereotypes about the economy and Dems/Repubs that aren't really true, but are widely believed. Many people are going to pin it on the Biden admin, fair or not, and he'll get grilled over it. It'll be up to him to try to explain what is going on and win people over. 

Biden is far from innocent on increasing inflation. Even now, he is increasing inflation year over year, acting like since he has slowed down the inflation losses, he is making gains when in fact add the numbers since 2021 and it is staggering. As I have mentioned the policy on fossil fuels is the culprit. It was a very bad policy decision and tanked the economy.

[KillerGoose]

(07-10-2023, 05:11 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Biden is far from innocent on increasing inflation. Even now, he is increasing inflation year over year, acting like since he has slowed down the inflation losses, he is making gains when in fact add the numbers since 2021 and it is staggering. As I have mentioned the policy on fossil fuels is the culprit. It was a very bad policy decision and tanked the economy.

Well, I'm not claiming he is innocent but more that you are really overestimating how much of it is his fault. Globally, the U.S. is clocking in at a below average inflation rate. Again, it is a global phenomenon, one that the Biden admin has inherited.

Which FF policies are you referring to? The U.S. oil industry is doing quite well right now so I am going to assume you aren't speaking on that. 

[Belsnickel]

(07-10-2023, 05:08 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Simply not accurate. In Biden's case his attack on fossil fuel and adding more regulations hurt the economy. The price of gasoline impacts everything in the supply chain. It killed inflation year one in office. It is still impacting food prices and prices at the pump for every American.

Policy does and can have a positive impact on the economy. People can hate Trump, but he had the country on the verge of energy independence. Contrast Biden who was forced to import dirty oil from other countries and dipped into reserves.

I hate to break it to you, but the idea that those policies did much to the price of gas is far from the truth. The price of gas was primarily due to global supply shortages which is why the gas prices were high all over the world. Biden approved a ton of new drilling permits during his first year, outpacing Trump by a long shot. As for "energy independence," we currently produce more energy than we consume. We have never been oil independent, though, and we weren't close to it under Trump, either.

You've fallen victim to partisan propaganda that is aimed at getting misinformed voters who aren't willing to look at the actual data to just parrot their talking points and pull the lever for their person.

Of course, all of this has been said in reply to you multiple times in this forum so I am not sure why typing it out again would produce any different results.

[Goalpost]

Bidenomics just seems a bit early of a term...which the intent is somewhat victory lapful. Fed governors are nowhere near this. They are in fact split on policy which is what caused the latest pause on interest rates. We don't have a clear path assured yet...the so called 'soft landing' people want.

[Belsnickel]

(07-10-2023, 06:19 PM)Goalpost Wrote: Bidenomics just seems a bit early of a term...which the intent is somewhat victory lapful. Fed governors are nowhere near this. They are in fact split on policy which is what caused the latest pause on interest rates. We don't have a clear path assured yet...the so called 'soft landing' people want.

Actually, the White House is just trying to claim the term after it has been used to denounce Biden's policies by conservative media and politicians. They didn't invent it, they are just embracing it.

[SunsetBengal]

(07-10-2023, 05:44 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: I hate to break it to you, but the idea that those policies did much to the price of gas is far from the truth. The price of gas was primarily due to global supply shortages which is why the gas prices were high all over the world. Biden approved a ton of new drilling permits during his first year, outpacing Trump by a long shot. As for "energy independence," we currently produce more energy than we consume. We have never been oil independent, though, and we weren't close to it under Trump, either.

You've fallen victim to partisan propaganda that is aimed at getting misinformed voters who aren't willing to look at the actual data to just parrot their talking points and pull the lever for their person.

Of course, all of this has been said in reply to you multiple times in this forum so I am not sure why typing it out again would produce any different results.

Would you agree that those shortages are manufactured by OPEC, in the name of profits?  We've seen this yo-yo effect for decades where when OPEC extorts the World market, nations like the US start ramping up domestic production, which threatens demand for OPEC oil and the price comes down for a while.

[Belsnickel]

(07-10-2023, 07:54 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Would you agree that those shortages are manufactured by OPEC, in the name of profits?  We've seen this yo-yo effect for decades where when OPEC extorts the World market, nations like the US start ramping up domestic production, which threatens demand for OPEC oil and the price comes down for a while.

Yes and no. There is no doubt that this occurs frequently, but the high prices immediately post COVID were because of a decrease in production that couldn't be ramped up fast enough to meet demand once people started hitting the roads again. There really was a perfect storm of things as we emerged from that situation. In general though, as with most things, the price of oil is regularly artificially inflated by those with a firm grasp on the levers to do so. Nothing has a value greater than what someone is willing to pay for it, and because of the reliance on oil to fuel the global economy the assholes at OPEC have us by the short and curlies.