Brokered Convention?

[BmorePat87]

Current delegate count from Politico

Trump: 285
Cruz: 161
Rubio: 87
Kasich: 25
Carson: 8
Bush: 4
Fiorina: 1
Huckabee: 1
Paul: 1

573 delegates have gone out and 1899 remain, or 70%. Trump needs exactly half of them to lock up the 1237 minimum.

Prior to last night, Trump has gained 62% of all available delegates. Last night, he took only 46% of delegates. There are still delegates from many of these states left to be rewarded at conventions and you can still have supporters of other candidates win spots at the state conventions to be delegates.

Delegates are only bound on the first vote. If Trump does not have 1237 on that first convention vote, it becomes a free for all.

Assuming trends continue, Trump may only have say 1185-1200 delegates by the convention. At this point, it becomes a brokered convention with back room dealings and these state convention politics coming into play. Do they flock to Cruz or Rubio? Do they find a dark horse candidate (8th place Warren G Harding in 1920)?

There is absolutely no reason for Rubio and Cruz to drop out right now.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

All good points. However, if Trump doesn't get the nomination, and assuming trends hold up, he can logically claim that the party is deliberately subverting the democratic process and run as a third party candidate. That would win a landslide win for Hillary. The only shot the GOP has at the presidency is Trump. Why Trump is making more of a deal of Rubio's stated claim to want to win a brokered convention even if he doesn't win a single state is beyond me.

[Benton]

i wouldn't be surprised to see Rubio come out with the nomination out of the convention. Trump won't win the general and the party powers that be know that. But he will split the vote if he gets snubbed. Rubio will be their best bet as an opposite of whatever Democrat (probably Hillary) and trump.

this election is horrible for the country for the next four years, but as somebody who follows politics like a hobby, it's a hell of a lot of fun.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(03-02-2016, 12:17 PM)Benton Wrote: i wouldn't be surprised to see Rubio come out with the nomination out of the convention. Trump won't win the general and the party powers that be know that. But he will split the vote if he gets snubbed. Rubio will be their best bet as an opposite of whatever Democrat (probably Hillary) and trump.

this election is horrible for the country for the next four years, but as somebody who follows politics like a hobby, it's a hell of a lot of fun.

The last bit could not be more true.  I know you disagree with me on this but I think the GOP either nominates Trump or they concede defeat.  I also think Trump could win.  Hillary is the exact same thing as Bush, a political lifer and tied in establishment candidate.  Trump will eviscerate that and it's one of the things that draws people to him, his status as an outsider beholden to no one.  Trumps smashing win in Mass illustrates my second point, that Trump does exceptionally well with blue collar voters.  While this won't translate to a general election win in Mass it absolutely will in swing states like Ohio and Michigan.  If Trump wins Florida, which seems likely at this point, there's yet another swing state that would likely swing his way in the general.   I honestly think Trump could win the general against Clinton.

[Belsnickel]

Trump could absolutely still take the nomination, though. We have a few of the upcoming contests that are winner-take-all instead of proportional. Those will give Trump that boost with the spread field. He isn't getting the majority of votes, but with a 30-35% he can take all of the delegates in some of these states.

[fredtoast]

Here is what is going to happen.

There is no way in hell trump wins a general election. he knows that as well as the GOP leaders. He is just in it for a payout. he will carry enough delegates to lead to a brokered convention. Rubio (or maybe Cruz) will get the party nomination. Trump threatens to run as a third party candidate. Only 20% to 30% of his supporters are democrat/independent so that will throw the general election to the Democrats. So......


TRUMPS DEMANDS THE GOP PAY HIM A BILLION DOLLARS TO DROP OUT.


You heard it here first.

[fredtoast]

(03-02-2016, 12:41 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote:  I also think Trump could win.  Hillary is the exact same thing as Bush, a political lifer and tied in establishment candidate.  Trump will eviscerate that and it's one of the things that draws people to him, his status as an outsider beholden to no one.  Trumps smashing win in Mass illustrates my second point, that Trump does exceptionally well with blue collar voters.  While this won't translate to a general election win in Mass it absolutely will in swing states like Ohio and Michigan.  If Trump wins Florida, which seems likely at this point, there's yet another swing state that would likely swing his way in the general.   I honestly think Trump could win the general against Clinton.

I am not a big Hillary fan, but there is no way Trump wins a general election.  Usually people within a political party will vote for their party's candidate in a general election even if they don't like him/her that much.  But too many people see through Trump's BS.  He is an entertainer who is getting off telling people exactly what they want to hear.  There is no way enough people fall for that act to get him elected to the Presidency.  

[BmorePat87]

(03-02-2016, 01:08 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: Trump could absolutely still take the nomination, though. We have a few of the upcoming contests that are winner-take-all instead of proportional. Those will give Trump that boost with the spread field. He isn't getting the majority of votes, but with a 30-35% he can take all of the delegates in some of these states.

The Winner Take All's on March 15 can throw this prediction completely off. 

To address others: it does certainly come down to what would Trump do if a brokered convention happened and he did not win. If he runs as an independent, they lose. If he runs as a Republican, I believe they lose too.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(03-02-2016, 01:17 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I am not a big Hillary fan, but there is no way Trump wins a general election.  Usually people within a political party will vote for their party's candidate in a general election even if they don't like him/her that much.  But too many people see through Trump's BS.  He is an entertainer who is getting off telling people exactly what they want to hear.  There is no way enough people fall for that act to get him elected to the Presidency.  

You're quite honestly helping me make my point.  The general comes down to a few swing states in today's political climate.  Colorado and VA would absolutely go Hillary.  I think Ohio, Florida, NC and possibly Michigan would go Trump.  That, coupled with red and blue states staying red and blue and Trump could absolutely win. 

[fredtoast]

(03-02-2016, 01:26 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: You're quite honestly helping me make my point.  The general comes down to a few swing states in today's political climate.  Colorado and VA would absolutely go Hillary.  I think Ohio, Florida, NC and possibly Michigan would go Trump.  That, coupled with red and blue states staying red and blue and Trump could absolutely win. 

I don't know how I am making your point when I am pointing out that you are wrong.

When has a candidate been elected President when his own party does not back him?

[Belsnickel]

(03-02-2016, 01:26 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: You're quite honestly helping me make my point.  The general comes down to a few swing states in today's political climate.  Colorado and VA would absolutely go Hillary.  I think Ohio, Florida, NC and possibly Michigan would go Trump.  That, coupled with red and blue states staying red and blue and Trump could absolutely win. 

If Trump is the nominee, Virginia goes blue in the general. If Rubio is the nominee it will be a much bigger fight. Then it would all depend what Trump would do. Rubio damn near won Virginia yesterday. If it was between just him and Trump, he would have.

[Rotobeast]

(03-02-2016, 01:17 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I am not a big Hillary fan, but there is no way Trump wins a general election.  Usually people within a political party will vote for their party's candidate in a general election even if they don't like him/her that much.  But too many people see through Trump's BS.  He is an entertainer who is getting off telling people exactly what they want to hear.  There is no way enough people fall for that act to get him elected to the Presidency.  

What if Trump gets the Rep nod, Hilldog the Dem nod, and Bernie gets pissed and runs independent ?
Wouldn't that pretty much hand Trump the election ?

[BengalHawk62]

This is what I think. 

Trump is a plant.
Yes, it's tinfoil-hat-esque, but given his friendship with the Clintons and lack of previous conservative convictions, I can't shake it.


The only way to overcome HRC's personal unfavorables and the perceptions of a Democratic President's performance is for the Republicans to run someone perceived as being even worse than HRC. So Trump takes advantage of the Republican Party's poor management to throw himself in there and agitate the lowest common denominator.

This sounds like the script for an Adam Sandler movie.

[Vas Deferens]

(03-02-2016, 01:56 PM)BengalHawk62 Wrote: This is what I think. 

Trump is a plant.
Yes, it's tinfoil-hat-esque, but given his friendship with the Clintons and lack of previous conservative convictions, I can't shake it.


The only way to overcome HRC's personal unfavorables and the perceptions of a Democratic President's performance is for the Republicans to run someone perceived as being even worse than HRC. So Trump takes advantage of the Republican Party's poor management to throw himself in there and agitate the lowest common denominator.

This sounds like the script for an Adam Sandler movie.

Let me in under that hat bud, let me in there.

Makes even more sense once he breaks off last moment and runs 3rd party.  Also makes me despise Hillary even more.  

[fredtoast]

(03-02-2016, 01:55 PM)Rotobeast Wrote: What if Trump gets the Rep nod, Hilldog the Dem nod, and Bernie gets pissed and runs independent ?
Wouldn't that pretty much hand Trump the election ?

Yes it would.

But Trump won't get the party nod.

[Benton]

(03-02-2016, 12:41 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: The last bit could not be more true.  I know you disagree with me on this but I think the GOP either nominates Trump or they concede defeat.  I also think Trump could win.  Hillary is the exact same thing as Bush, a political lifer and tied in establishment candidate.  Trump will eviscerate that and it's one of the things that draws people to him, his status as an outsider beholden to no one.  Trumps smashing win in Mass illustrates my second point, that Trump does exceptionally well with blue collar voters.  While this won't translate to a general election win in Mass it absolutely will in swing states like Ohio and Michigan.  If Trump wins Florida, which seems likely at this point, there's yet another swing state that would likely swing his way in the general.   I honestly think Trump could win the general against Clinton.

you could be right. Part of what's making this so interesting is how unreliable polling data has become. Data from 2-3 years ago up until last fall, Clinton shouldn't have had to even campaign and the GOP looked like whoever could be the most Christian conservative and youngest would have stepped ahead (Carson and Rubio should have done much better according to polling for what people wanted, which should have opened it up for Jeb to be a balancing candidate on issues and age, according to what people polled were saying they wanted).

instead Hillary is winning by coin flips and the GOP frontrunner is the least religious and one of the oldest in terms of age.

I wonder what this will mean for the party next election cycle. Will trump's blatant racism and disparaging of .... Well, everybody.... Drive the next batch of candidates to follow suit? George W brought back the extremist Christian conservative. It worked for him and a lot of the GOP followed suit with how they acted (even though their votes didn't fall in that line). So is trump going to bring in the reign of the jackass? Where GOP candidates feel to get ahead they have to be the most aggressive, most offensive?

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(03-02-2016, 01:36 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I don't know how I am making your point when I am pointing out that you are wrong.

When has a candidate been elected President when his own party does not back him?

If you don't see the point being made then I'm going to have to assume it's deliberate because it's pretty clear.  However, I'll explain further.  You made the point that voters generally stick to party regardless of the nominee, i.e. red states will stay red and blue states will stay blue.  That being the case the general will come down to, as it always does of late, to a few swing states.  I illustrated how I think Trump can claim more of the swing states than Hillary and I further explained why I tend to think this. 

(03-02-2016, 01:47 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: If Trump is the nominee, Virginia goes blue in the general. If Rubio is the nominee it will be a much bigger fight. Then it would all depend what Trump would do. Rubio damn near won Virginia yesterday. If it was between just him and Trump, he would have.

I agree about VA and stated so in my post.  I think Trump wins OH, NC, FL, and possibly IO and MI as well.  If he could flip Michigan, which I think he'd have a strong chance to do for reasons already stated, he could easily win the GE.

[*wildcats forever*]

(03-02-2016, 02:10 PM)Benton Wrote: you could be right. Part of what's making this so interesting is how unreliable polling data has become. Data from 2-3 years ago up until last fall, Clinton shouldn't have had to even campaign and the GOP looked like whoever could be the most Christian conservative and youngest would have stepped ahead (Carson and Rubio should have done much better according to polling for what people wanted, which should have opened it up for Jeb to be a balancing candidate on issues and age, according to what people polled were saying they wanted).

instead Hillary is winning by coin flips and the GOP frontrunner is the least religious and one of the oldest in terms of age.

I wonder what this will mean for the party next election cycle. Will trump's blatant racism and disparaging of .... Well, everybody.... Drive the next batch of candidates to follow suit? George W brought back the extremist Christian conservative. It worked for him and a lot of the GOP followed suit with how they acted (even though their votes didn't fall in that line). So is trump going to bring in the reign of the jackass? Where GOP candidates feel to get ahead they have to be the most aggressive, most offensive?

IF Trump wins, I think he will push the country left by the end of his first term. Enter a woman president not named Hillary, and I don't necessarily mean Elizabeth Warren. Tulsi Gabbard might become a household name by then.

[Belsnickel]

Ben Stein said he would vote for a Democrat if Trump gets the nomination. Just saw that, figured it would fit in here.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(03-02-2016, 05:31 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: Ben Stein said he would vote for a Democrat if Trump gets the nomination. Just saw that, figured it would fit in here.

Ben Stein pretending Nixon was any better.  Ted Cruz is far worse, that guy is legitimately scary IMO.  He's the kind of guy who would have served in the Inquisition and enjoyed every single minute of it.