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Burrow under pressure last year
#1
This thread is not an attempt to bash Burrow. But I think an honest assessment of last year is necessary to recognize his improvement this year.

FootballOutsiders measures QB production with DVOA. It is a formula that uses traditional objective stats like yards and completions, but adjusts the value of each play based on down-and-distance (3 yard gain on third-and-2 is more valuable than 3 yard gain on first-and-10) and the opposing defense. I think it is a valuable stat. They also analyze how a QB performs "under pressure" compared to "no pressure". I assume "pressure" is based on some subjective judgement, but I don't really know. According to them Burrow had the 11th (out of 36) LOWEST pressure rate (23.2%) in the league last year. So I wonder what their exact definition of "pressure" is.

When Burrow was not under pressure his DVOA ranked 18th. However when under pressure his DVOA ranked 33rd. Only one QB (Goff) had a greater drop in his DVOA when under pressure compared to no pressure.

Looking at these numbers I think that the problem may be that a lot of the plays that FO rated as "no pressure" actually involved some pressure that dropped Burrow's efficiency. And then only the worst of the worst ended up in the "with pressure" category.

But these numbers do actually back up my perception from last year. Burrow was MUCH better in a clean pocket than under pressure. For all his ability to escape Joe rarely got off the big plays that occur when scrambling QBs break down the defense. We all remember some of the great throws he made after scrambling, but the fact is that overall he was not that efficient under pressure.

I don't think Burrow will scramble as much this year, but I do expect him to fully recover and eventually be just as nimble as he was last year. So what he has to do more of is turn those scrambles into big plays.
" 'Deserves' got nothing to do with it."
-Will Munny
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#2
I don't know who these guys are, but if they think Burrow had the 11th lowest pressure, they didn't watch the same Bengals games I did. Kid was seemingly running for his life on every play.
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#3
(Yesterday, 08:37 AM)Sled21 Wrote: I don't know who these guys are, but if they think Burrow had the 11th lowest pressure, they didn't watch the same Bengals games I did. Kid was seemingly running for his life on every play.

did you watch the other games?  there were a lot of QBs doing the same thing
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#4
Also a key factor is how many rushers created the pressure and how fast they pressure came. Last year teams almost instantly created pressure with 4 rushers against us, leaving extra passing defenders. I'll trust my eyes. Burrow recognizes defenses and shreds them when he has a fair chance.
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#5
(Yesterday, 10:16 AM)pally Wrote: did you watch the other games?  there were a lot of QBs doing the same thing


7 teams allowef a higher sack percentage than the Bengals. So we may not have been the absolute worst like some people claim. But I don't see Burrow being one of the top 11 protected QBs.
" 'Deserves' got nothing to do with it."
-Will Munny
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#6
Clearly, then, we need to find out how they measured "pressure".
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#7
(Yesterday, 12:36 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Clearly, then, we need to find out how they measured "pressure".

Its the terror of knowing what the world is about.

Watching some close friends screaming "Let me out"
" 'Deserves' got nothing to do with it."
-Will Munny
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#8
(Yesterday, 01:55 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Its the terror of knowing what the world is about.

Watching some close friends screaming "Let me out"

Ummm, I mean in regards to football. 

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