CBO Analysis of Trump's Proposed Budget

[Belsnickel]

tl;dr:

Quote:Under the President’s proposals, budget deficits from 2018 through 2027 would total nearly one-third less than those in CBO’s baseline projections, ranging between 2.6 percent and 3.3 percent of GDP, down from 3.6 percent in 2017.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52846

So, a continuation of deficit spending.

I do want to note this section of the report from page 12:

Quote:The President’s budget includes a set of principles to guide deficit-neutral reform of the tax system. Because that proposal lacks the specific details that CBO and JCT would need to estimate any effects on the budget and the economy (which could be significant), this analysis includes the Administration’s estimate of no effect as a placeholder; many combinations of policy changes could have such an effect.

Essentially, the tax plan is not hashed out. While the administration talks about it being deficit neutral, it may not be. It could be a surplus, it could be a deficit. So this analysis is based on the assumption that it is neutral. So if the tax plan brings in less revenue (which is what most tax analysts have been saying based on the Trump messaging on taxes) then the deficits will be larger.

[GMDino]

(07-13-2017, 12:18 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: tl;dr:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52846

So, a continuation of deficit spending.

I do want to note this section of the report from page 12:


Essentially, the tax plan is not hashed out. While the administration talks about it being deficit neutral, it may not be. It could be a surplus, it could be a deficit. So this analysis is based on the assumption that it is neutral. So if the tax plan brings in less revenue (which is what most tax analysts have been saying based on the Trump messaging on taxes) then the deficits will be larger.

But the WH posted a video saying we can't trust the CBO!!!

The Congressional Budget Office's math doesn't add up.

Faulty Numbers = Faulty Results pic.twitter.com/zdf4bZ01ma

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) July 12, 2017

[Belsnickel]

(07-13-2017, 12:25 PM)GMDino Wrote: But the WH posted a video saying we can't trust the CBO!!!

The Congressional Budget Office's math doesn't add up.

Faulty Numbers = Faulty Results pic.twitter.com/zdf4bZ01ma

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) July 12, 2017

That's because they don't understand how government works, so I don't expect them to understand how policy analysis works.

[GMDino]

(07-13-2017, 12:29 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: That's because they don't understand how government works, so I don't expect them to understand how policy analysis works.

Bravo.

[JustWinBaby]

You make assumptions about spending reductions 4-8 years down the road that are unlikely to be passed and you get a balance budget...

I like to fantasize when Washington "kicks the can" that Lucy is holding the football. Of course, in reality Lucy is a single mom on welfare...