CBO Markups

[Belsnickel]

So, this has been something in the news as of late with the ACA legislation being bounced around, and often ends up in the media when one or the other party dislikes what the other is doing and demands a CBO estimate before voting. It has become quite the political football.

Let's take a moment to discuss the CBO before jumping into this:

1. The CBO is a non-partisan agency that reports directly to Congress.
2. The current head of the agency, Keith Hall, is a conservative Republican.
3. Policy analysis of any sort is based upon forecasting, which is an educated guess. That being said, the CBO had a pretty good track record with their educated guesses.
4. The most in the news estimate they screwed the pooch on was the ACA itself, though that was a result of the judiciary saying the states could not be forced to expand Medicaid, and so conservative states not doing so.
   

How do you feel about insuring that legislation receives a cost estimate from the CBO before proceeding to examine the impact on the deficit?

[GMDino]

(09-18-2017, 01:42 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: So, this has been something in the news as of late with the ACA legislation being bounced around, and often ends up in the media when one or the other party dislikes what the other is doing and demands a CBO estimate before voting. It has become quite the political football.

Let's take a moment to discuss the CBO before jumping into this:

1. The CBO is a non-partisan agency that reports directly to Congress.
2. The current head of the agency, Keith Hall, is a conservative Republican.
3. Policy analysis of any sort is based upon forecasting, which is an educated guess. That being said, the CBO had a pretty good track record with their educated guesses.
4. The most in the news estimate they screwed the pooch on was the ACA itself, though that was a result of the judiciary saying the states could not be forced to expand Medicaid, and so conservative states not doing so.
   

How do you feel about insuring that legislation receives a cost estimate from the CBO before proceeding to examine the impact on the deficit?

What can it hurt?  Better to have an estimated guess that is more right than wrong usually than just a guess from the politicians backing the bills/laws/programs.

[*michaelsean*]

Is the CBO limited to the data they are given, or can they make their own forecasts both on what they believe actual costs will be, and what they believe the future of the economy will be?

[Belsnickel]

(09-18-2017, 02:16 PM)michaelsean Wrote: Is the CBO limited to the data they are given, or can they make their own forecasts both on what they believe actual costs will be, and what they believe the future of the economy will be?

So, they do their own forecasting based on what they perceive to be the actual costs and what the economy will look like. They have particular methods that they use to come up with their estimates, much like think tanks such as Heritage or CAP have their own methods that result in more skewed results. As with any forecasting, they make a lot of assumptions, but those assumptions are based on years of experience.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

I think an estimate of the budget impact is important, but the way both parties treat the estimates practically makes it a moot point to even do the estimate to begin with because one of the two will poo poo the estimate and they both vacillate in their opinion of the CBO.

[BmorePat87]

(09-18-2017, 02:38 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: I think an estimate of the budget impact is important, but the way both parties treat the estimates practically makes it a moot point to even do the estimate to begin with because one of the two will poo poo the estimate and they both vacillate in their opinion of the CBO.

This sums up my feelings. If something doesn't fit your views then it's rejected.

[Yojimbo]

I think a CBO score should be a mandatory part of any legislation before it's allowed to be voted on. Whether you like their score or not, at least some kind of cost/saving is attached for debate.