CNN attempting to create a new narrative

[basballguy]

CNN dropped this gem yesterday

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/15/economy/russia-ukraine-inflation/index.html

"Exclusive: Russia-Ukraine conflict could cause inflation to hit 10%, new analysis finds"

Before I go into why this is wrong, here are some fun bits from the article:

Quote:If the Russia-Ukraine crisis drives oil to about $110 a barrel, inflation in the United States would exceed 10% on a year-over-year basis, according to a new analysis by RSM shared exclusively with CNN.

The first problem here is there's an unpublished study shared 'exclusively' with CNN that nobody else has access to. That's some Adam Schefter shit right there.

It's also seems to be implying the inflation rate is primarily impacted by the price of oil. Like most goods, they're correlated, but not as much as one would think. It's a lazy narrative.

Here's an article on the relationship between oil and inflation: https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/167245/economics/the-relationship-between-oil-prices-and-inflation/

Quote:Brusuelas estimates that a roughly 20% increase in oil prices to around $110 would lift consumer prices by 2.8 percentage points over the course of the following 12 months, lifting inflation above the 10% threshold. That would run counter to current expectations for inflation to gradually cool off from elevated levels.

Here's the real driver of the headline. So here we're saying it will slowly impact inflation over a period of time...which to the normal person they'd say "oh that makes sense" but it has not been true since the 70s. However, there's no real way we can see how this was determined because it's an 'exclusive' study and we have to take the word of CNN/RSM.

Moving on.....

Gas prices (49.6% increase) are definitely tops in the CPI for 2021, but the price of oil is not the reason we saw used vehicles (37.3%), Utility gas (24.1%), Meat (12.5%), or tobacco (9%) increases. The chip shortage has been killing us for the last 18 months or so. Wage growth has been stupid high over the last year. Supply chain issues also keep coming up.

My whole point is this headline seems to want to say "Blame Russia for inflation" with an article saying the price of crude oil will be responsible for inflation going over 10%. When in reality inflation has been a problem for at least a year (long beyond this Ukraine thing) and there are more serious impacts to inflation than the price of oil...which this article doesn't care to cover.

Sadly, I'll still go to CNN first for news because i only have to type 3 letters to get to the website.

[Belsnickel]

Not surprising. I mean, they aren't wrong, but the attempt to change the narrative is something common among the media outlets. We just saw it recently from right-wing news agencies when there was news about Trump breaking the law regarding the handling of documents.

[basballguy]

(02-16-2022, 11:28 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: Not surprising. I mean, they aren't wrong, but the attempt to change the narrative is something common among the media outlets. We just saw it recently from right-wing news agencies when there was news about Trump breaking the law regarding the handling of documents.

Haha, what?  Aside from me saying they're silly for tying inflation to Russia, my entire post is how I do think they're wrong.  :)  

Why do you think they're right?  

[Belsnickel]

(02-16-2022, 11:34 AM)basballguy Wrote: Haha, what?  Aside from me saying they're silly for tying inflation to Russia, my entire post is how I do think they're wrong.  :)  

Why do you think they're right?  

If there were a conflict it would boost oil prices for us, and would boost inflation. Your inference that they are saying it is the primary driver of inflation doesn't seem to be sound. What they said is that is would boost inflation.

[basballguy]

(02-16-2022, 12:14 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: If there were a conflict it would boost oil prices for us, and would boost inflation. Your inference that they are saying it is the primary driver of inflation doesn't seem to be sound. What they said is that is would boost inflation.

That's not how inflation works.  Crude Oil isn't even a contributor to the actual published inflation rate  It's one of many influences to it.  Oil prices could skyrocket and the overall inflation rate could still go down.  

Also, the entire article is about the price of oil and inflation.  I'm not inferring anything, bud.  

Nonetheless, you seem to be missing the point entirely.  

[Belsnickel]

(02-16-2022, 12:31 PM)basballguy Wrote: That's not how inflation works.  Crude Oil isn't even a contributor to the actual published inflation rate  It's one of many influences to it.  Oil prices could skyrocket and the overall inflation rate could still go down.  

Also, the entire article is about the price of oil and inflation.  I'm not inferring anything, bud.  

Nonetheless, you seem to be missing the point entirely.  

Possibly. I'm not devoting much effort to this conversation.

[Dill]

(02-16-2022, 11:20 AM)basballguy Wrote: My whole point is this headline seems to want to say "Blame Russia for inflation" with an article saying the price of crude oil will be responsible for inflation going over 10%.  When in reality inflation has been a problem for at least a year (long beyond this Ukraine thing) and there are more serious impacts to inflation than the price of oil...which this article doesn't care to cover.  

Seems like one could grant "more serious impacts to inflation" and, without contradiction, still grant that a steep rise in oil prices could drive inflation higher. Unless one thinks Ukraine, the U.S. and/or NATO is driving the current conflict, Russia IS the culprit if war drives oil prices up, right? 

The thesis of the CNN article is the second statement quoted: 

The cost of living is already very high in America. The Russia-Ukraine crisis could make it even worse.

This surely acknowledges that inflation was already a problem, along with discussions later in the article about the rate of inflation in January of 2021.  The entire article is mostly in subjunctive mode--"could" "possibly" "if" etc.  

The NYPost also reports the CNN report, apparently agreeing that a Russian invasion would drive up inflation.
https://nypost.com/2022/02/15/inflation-would-rise-if-russia-invaded-ukraine/

Are they also trying to "change the narrative"?  If so from what to what? Whom would the NYP be helping here? 

Finally, we are not made privy to the RSM report, but we do have their chief economist on record. That's some accountability.

I am curious about why the report has not been published. Problem solved if they eventually do publish it.

[basballguy]

(02-16-2022, 12:14 PM)Dill Wrote: Seems like one could grant "more serious impacts to inflation" and, without contradiction, still grant that a steep rise in oil prices could drive inflation higher. Unless one thinks Ukraine, the U.S. and/or NATO is driving the current conflict, Russia IS the culprit if war drives oil prices up, right? 

That's one of my complaints/issues with the article.  The headline says the "conflict" will cause inflation to rise.  When really the article suggests the conflicts impact on oil prices would drive inflation up, not the conflict.  I know it sounds like mincing words how many people don't read the articles and just assume the title is the detail?  

Separately, i would argue even with out the conflict, it's not unreasonable to expect oil prices to continue to rise with everything else.  Oil was already trending up before this "conflict" for the last year (as has almost everything else)

(02-16-2022, 12:14 PM)Dill Wrote: The cost of living is already very high in America. The Russia-Ukraine crisis could make it even worse.

Ya this line made me chuckle but wasn't really relevant to my gripe.  "Cost of Living" is totally different from inflation.  The entire article talks about inflation but has this one-liner in there.  Cost of Living has been a problem for MUCH longer than inflation has....our buddy Belsnickel would happily testify to that in his case for a universal basic income (i think).  :)

(02-16-2022, 12:14 PM)Dill Wrote: The NYPost also reports the CNN report, apparently agreeing that a Russian invasion would drive up inflation.

https://nypost.com/2022/02/15/inflation-would-rise-if-russia-invaded-ukraine/

My man, this is EXACTLY how these things happen.  CNN reports something exclusive and other media outlets pick it up and cite CNN.  If the story circulates to 100 different news outlets, it's still originally CNN content.  So I would say the NYPost is enabling CNN. 

(02-16-2022, 12:14 PM)Dill Wrote: Finally, we are not made privy to the RSM report, but we do have their chief economist on record. That's some accountability.


I am curious about why the report has not been published. Problem solved if they eventually do publish it.

Sure, he's got some accountability.  So does Roger Goodell in all things NFL.  So did Bush when he said there were WMDs (i know, extreme example).  

Publishing the report would for sure solve the problem, but then could they say "The Russia conflict will raise inflation"?  We'll never know.  

For now all i see is a sensational headline and an article that's very loosely tied to the headline....and the kicker is I don't even agree with the the idea the price of oil will have their suggested impact but I'll never get to see why this report says that.

[NATI BENGALS]

I always imagined high oil prices had a compounding effect on cost. Cost more for raw materials if they are oil based or oil based energy is involved in its production. Cost more to get raw material to the manufacturer. Cost more to manufacture if there is oil based energy consumption involved in the manufacturing process. Costs the manufacturer more to get it to the distributor. Cost the distributor more to get it to the store. Costs the consumer more to get to and from the store to buy it.

I'm still confused on what narrative you think they are changing?

Title Exclusive: Russia-Ukraine conflict could cause inflation to hit 10%, new analysis finds

"The current rate of inflation -- consumer prices soared by 7.5% in January from the year before -- is the highest since February 1982. The high cost of living has weighed heavily on consumer sentiment, which tumbled earlier this month to a fresh decade low."

"Brusuelas estimates that a roughly 20% increase in oil prices to around $110 would lift consumer prices by 2.8 percentage points over the course of the following 12 months, lifting inflation above the 10% threshold. That would run counter to current expectations for inflation to gradually cool off from elevated levels."

7.5 + 2.8 = 10.3

[basballguy]

(02-16-2022, 09:51 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: I always imagined high oil prices had a compounding effect on cost. Cost more for raw materials if they are oil based or oil based energy is involved in its production. Cost more to get raw material to the manufacturer. Cost more to manufacture if there is oil based energy consumption involved in the manufacturing process. Costs the manufacturer more to get it to the distributor. Cost the distributor more to get it to the store. Costs the consumer more to get to and from the store to buy it.

I'm still confused on what narrative you think they are changing?

Title Exclusive: Russia-Ukraine conflict could cause inflation to hit 10%, new analysis finds

"The current rate of inflation -- consumer prices soared by 7.5% in January from the year before -- is the highest since February 1982. The high cost of living has weighed heavily on consumer sentiment, which tumbled earlier this month to a fresh decade low."

"Brusuelas estimates that a roughly 20% increase in oil prices to around $110 would lift consumer prices by 2.8 percentage points over the course of the following 12 months, lifting inflation above the 10% threshold. That would run counter to current expectations for inflation to gradually cool off from elevated levels."

7.5 + 2.8 = 10.3

I didn't say they were changing a narrative I said they were creating a new one.  

I thought i was clear in my OP but I guess not so let me try bullet my points.  These issues are unique from each other.  
 
1) The article title implies a conflict will cause an increase in inflation.  That's just not true.  the article content (price of crude oil) is where the speculation actually is.  Again, reference my OP for thoughts.    

2) I am stunned to see a study imply the price of crude oil would have this massive of a impact on the inflation rate.  It's unprecedented and the article doesn't give any indication how any of the 31 different categories that make up the Consumer Pricing Index (the inflation metric) are impacted by this price increase.  Crude oil is not even used to calculate inflation.    

3) The study itself is not published so there's no ability to do a fact check for personal education and we are expected to just accept the speculation as a possibility.  

So for someone like me who read the title, read the article, and has a basic understanding of how inflation is calculated and the factors that impact it.....it doesn't make sense.  I want to know more, but I can't because the study isn't shared.  Many people will not be as inquiring and they will just assume Russia/Ukraine is raising inflation.  

This is just bad dissemination of information.  Every news organization does shit like this.  CNN just happens to be the main site i get my news from.  

[GMDino]

(02-16-2022, 11:07 PM)basballguy Wrote: I didn't say they were changing a narrative I said they were creating a new one.  

I thought i was clear in my OP but I guess not so let me try bullet my points.  These issues are unique from each other.  
 
1) The article title implies a conflict will cause an increase in inflation.  That's just not true.  the article content (price of crude oil) is where the speculation actually is.  Again, reference my OP for thoughts.    

2) I am stunned to see a study imply the price of crude oil would have this massive of a impact on the inflation rate.  It's unprecedented and the article doesn't give any indication how any of the 31 different categories that make up the Consumer Pricing Index (the inflation metric) are impacted by this price increase.  Crude oil is not even used to calculate inflation.    

3) The study itself is not published so there's no ability to do a fact check for personal education and we are expected to just accept the speculation as a possibility.  

So for someone like me who read the title, read the article, and has a basic understanding of how inflation is calculated and the factors that impact it.....it doesn't make sense.  I want to know more, but I can't because the study isn't shared.  Many people will not be as inquiring and they will just assume Russia/Ukraine is raising inflation.  

This is just bad dissemination of information.  Every news organization does shit like this.  CNN just happens to be the main site i get my news from.  

I freely admit I never looked much into how these numbers are created or determined but a quick search showed they do include fuel oil under "energy" for the CPI.

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/household-energy.htm


And there were multiple articles dating back a year or so about how rising oil prices are a harbinger of inflation historically.  Usually because it leads to higher production costs, transportation costs, etc.

The article itself never uses the word "massive".  That is you "implying" what the article means.

[jmccracky]

I've only skimmed through this thread. Are you saying CNN is pushing this narrative, so Biden can get elected again and have an excuse for the inflation? Just seeing if I want to read the whole thread or not.

[SunsetBengal]

(02-17-2022, 11:15 AM)jmccracky Wrote: I've only skimmed through this thread. Are you saying CNN is pushing this narrative, so Biden can get elected again and have an excuse for the inflation? Just seeing if I want to read the whole thread or not.  

The way I interpret the message is that CNN is pushing a narrative, so as to deflect public opinion for blaming the current administration for the inflation.

[basballguy]

(02-17-2022, 11:15 AM)jmccracky Wrote: I've only skimmed through this thread. Are you saying CNN is pushing this narrative, so Biden can get elected again and have an excuse for the inflation? Just seeing if I want to read the whole thread or not.  

Eh, i guess we can all speculate on motives.  My points are more it's shitty journalism and incomplete data.  

[basballguy]

(02-17-2022, 10:50 AM)GMDino Wrote: I freely admit I never looked much into how these numbers are created or determined but a quick search showed they do include fuel oil under "energy" for the CPI.

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/household-energy.htm


And there were multiple articles dating back a year or so about how rising oil prices are a harbinger of inflation historically.  Usually because it leads to higher production costs, transportation costs, etc.

The article itself never uses the word "massive".  That is you "implying" what the article means.

It's super interesting when you start diving into the meat and potatoes on it.  

"Massive" is my choice word.  Without trying to go into details, a 2.8% increase is massive.  

Crude Oil as a commodity is not tracked in CPI.  It is not a component of Energy.  It 100% has an impact on CPI via fuel prices, energy, and other things like transportation costs for industries.

For someone to say (paraphrasing and slight exaggeration) "Crude Oil is going to give us a bump in inflation that we haven't seen in 50 years" and then not publish the study?  That's silly.  It's why people don't trust CNN or FOX or MSNBC news reporting.  

It could very well be a legit study, but there's no way to know since we can't see the study.  

[*Nately120*]

(02-17-2022, 12:39 PM)basballguy Wrote: Eh, i guess we can all speculate on motives.  My points are more it's shitty journalism and incomplete data.  

Careful, if you keep trashing value of the for-profit media they'll be calling you a commie. 

[NATI BENGALS]

Put me in the a Russia vs Ukraine and nato war WILL INCREASE inflation category. Not sure how one would think it wouldn’t.

[basballguy]

(02-17-2022, 05:34 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Put me in the a Russia vs Ukraine and nato war WILL INCREASE inflation category. Not sure how one would think it wouldn’t.

you didn't read a single thing I wrote.

[jmccracky]

(02-17-2022, 12:39 PM)basballguy Wrote: Eh, i guess we can all speculate on motives.  My points are more it's shitty journalism and incomplete data.  

You'll get no argument from me about the big news networks being crap. 

[NATI BENGALS]

(02-17-2022, 05:46 PM)basballguy Wrote: you didn't read a single thing I wrote.

Yea man. I did.



You said
“1) The article title implies a conflict will cause an increase in inflation. That's just not true. the article content (price of crude oil) is where the speculation actually is. Again, reference my OP for thoughts.”


Again the title of the article:
Exclusive: Russia-Ukraine conflict could cause inflation to hit 10%, new analysis finds

So you either think Russia vs Ukraine and nato will have zero effect on oil prices. Or oil prices have zero impact on inflation. Or both. Either way I disagree.


I guarantee if a war breaks out. You will pay more for oil and you will pay more for just about everything else.

I don’t see them trying to create new narrative. I see them acknowledging current inflation and saying it will get worse if there is a war.