Clear Politics Updates General election and States

[LSUfaninTN]

(09-11-2023, 11:26 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: Yeah, between you proving my point so well and this misuse of the word "fact," you've earned your place on my ignore list.

Oh no! Another lib who can’t listen to logic.

Let me know when the Republicans think 4 year olds should be taken seriously when they truly believe they’re of the other gender.

[*Nately120*]

(09-11-2023, 01:40 PM)LSUfaninTN Wrote: Oh no! Another lib who can’t listen to logic.

Let me know when the Republicans think 4 year olds should be taken seriously when they truly believe they’re of the other gender.

My wife and I believe in promoting both sides, so as soon as our kids reach the age of 5 we tell them they can be whichever gender they like and then we let them pick out either a pink or a camo "my first rifle."  

[Belsnickel]

(09-11-2023, 05:38 PM)Nately120 Wrote: My wife and I believe in promoting both sides, so as soon as our kids reach the age of 5 we tell them they can be whichever gender they like and then we let them pick out either a pink or a camo "my first rifle."  

Just go with plain ol' wood grain, it's a good gender neutral option. That way they can be genderfluid and it won't be an issue.

[LSUfaninTN]

(09-11-2023, 05:38 PM)Nately120 Wrote: My wife and I believe in promoting both sides, so as soon as our kids reach the age of 5 we tell them they can be whichever gender they like and then we let them pick out either a pink or a camo "my first rifle."  

Just spit out my coffee.  

I’m personally terrified of guns, won’t touch one, but I’m pro second amendment. Gives us a fighting chance against tyranny. The founding fathers weren’t idiots, even though the left wants to completely erase them from history despite making this country into a powerhouse within a few decades. /rant

Not sure, if I had kids, I would let them own guns until they’re teens, but, good on you for presumably not giving into the woke nonsense. I do worry about your kids going to school and being indoctrinated… make sure to keep an eye on that. Girlfriend’s kid thinks she’s trans (I think I said that before) along with several of her friends and her aunt. LOL. 

/rant2 

[hollodero]

(09-11-2023, 10:50 AM)LSUfaninTN Wrote: Also there is the fact that the left is clinically insane. 

What a friendly message. How can the country still be divided after such sweet talk.

In all those years, I sure did not hold most ardent Trump supporters in the highest regard. But clinically insane, I would never ever have said something like that, and neither has evil Hillary or most people. Being still hurt over the word deplorable or the term cult and countering it with 'clinically insane' really is something else.

[*Nately120*]

(09-11-2023, 10:41 PM)LSUfaninTN Wrote: I do worry about your kids going to school and being indoctrinated… make sure to keep an eye on that.

My kids are only going to school until they are old enough to work in a sawmill in Arkansas.  It's time they learned life isn't one big party and that you don't always get to have all 10 of your fingers. 

[LSUfaninTN]

(09-12-2023, 10:41 PM)Nately120 Wrote: My kids are only going to school until they are old enough to work in a sawmill in Arkansas.  It's time they learned life isn't one big party and that you don't always get to have all 10 of your fingers. 

LOL. I mean, I don’t know if you’re serious, but when I was in college one of my cousins from central Louisiana who never went to college, not the brightest guy on the planet, told me something like “at least I learned how to make a rocking chair.” I scoffed at him at the time. He was a millionaire by 30. And I still can’t make a rocking chair.

[Luvnit2]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

GENERAL ELECTION

Long way to go but Trump is moving upward and it appears Kennedy and West could play a role in 2024 POTUS.
Friday, October 20
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
2024 Republican Presidential Nomination Emerson Trump 59, DeSantis 8, Haley 8, Ramaswamy 3, Pence 3, Christie 4, Scott 1, Burgum 1, Hutchinson 1 Trump +51
2024 Republican Presidential Nomination Harvard-Harris Trump 60, DeSantis 11, Haley 7, Ramaswamy 6, Pence 4, Christie 2, Scott 2, Burgum 0, Hutchinson 0 Trump +49
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Harvard-Harris Trump 52, Biden 48 Trump +4
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Trump 47, Biden 45 Trump +2
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy Harvard-Harris Biden 36, Trump 42, Kennedy 22 Trump +6
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West Harvard-Harris Trump 41, Biden 34, Kennedy 21, West 3 Trump +7
General Election: DeSantis vs. Biden Harvard-Harris Biden 44, DeSantis 40 Biden +4
General Election: Haley vs. Biden Harvard-Harris Haley 38, Biden 42 Biden +4
General Election: Trump vs. Harris Harvard-Harris Trump 48, Harris 41 Trump +7
General Election: DeSantis vs. Harris Harvard-Harris Harris 42, DeSantis 42 Tie
General Election: Haley vs. Harris Harvard-Harris Harris 41, Haley 39 Harris +2
President Biden Job Approval Harvard-Harris Approve 44, Disapprove 53 Disapprove +9
President Biden Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 47, Disapprove 52 Disapprove +5
President Biden Job Approval Emerson Approve 42, Disapprove 50 Disapprove +8
2024 Generic Congressional Vote Emerson Republicans 44, Democrats 45 Democrats +1
Congressional Job Approval Harvard-Harris Approve 30, Disapprove 63 Disapprove +33
Direction of Country Harvard-Harris Right Direction 33, Wrong Track 58 Wrong Track +25
Thursday, October 19
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden Bloomberg/MrnConsult Trump 47, Biden 43 Trump +4
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden Bloomberg/MrnConsult Trump 48, Biden 43 Trump +5
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden Bloomberg/MrnConsult Trump 44, Biden 44 Tie

[Luvnit2]

Here is most recent as October 24, 2023 Biden versus Trump (no RFK Jr. or West)

Trump up .7 so very tight race. Then I will show polls for 2020 election. Biden was up 4.5% heading into the election. So as of now, a 5.2 wing towards Trump. Interesting considering all of the legal issues Trump is facing.

October 23, 2023 Polling Data
Poll Date Sample MoE
Trump ®
Biden (D) *
Spread
RCP Average 10/6 - 10/23 -- -- 44.8 44.1 Trump +0.7
USA Today/Suffolk 10/17 - 10/20 1000 RV 3.1 41 41 Tie
The Messenger/HarrisX 10/16 - 10/23 3029 RV 1.8 45 41 Trump +4
Morning Consult 10/20 - 10/22 5000 RV 1.0 43 43 Tie
Harvard-Harris 10/18 - 10/19 2116 RV 2.0 52 48 Trump +4
Emerson 10/16 - 10/17 1578 RV 2.4 47 45 Trump +2
Grinnell/Selzer 10/10 - 10/15 784 LV 3.5 40 40 Tie
Economist/YouGov 10/14 - 10/17 1296 RV 3.2 42 43 Biden +1
Yahoo News 10/12 - 10/16 1120 RV -- 43 44 Biden +1
CNBC 10/11 - 10/15 RV -- 46 42 Trump +4
NPR/PBS/Marist 10/11 - 10/11 1218 RV 3.9 46 49 Biden +3
FOX News 10/6 - 10/9 1007 RV 3.0 48 49 Biden +1

2020 Polling Data
Poll Date Sample MoE
Biden (D)
Trump ®
Spread
Final Results -- -- -- 51.4 46.9 Biden +4.5
RCP Average 10/25 - 11/2 -- -- 51.2 44.0 Biden +7.2
Economist/YouGov 10/31 - 11/2 1363 LV 3.3 53 43 Biden +10
IBD/TIPP* 10/29 - 11/2 1212 LV 3.2 50 46 Biden +4
Reuters/Ipsos 10/29 - 11/2 914 LV 3.7 52 45 Biden +7
CNBC/Change Research (D) 10/29 - 11/1 1880 LV 2.3 52 42 Biden +10
Rasmussen Reports 10/28 - 11/1 1500 LV 2.5 48 47 Biden +1
Quinnipiac 10/28 - 11/1 1516 LV 2.5 50 39 Biden +11
JTN/RMG Research* 10/29 - 10/31 1200 LV 2.8 51 44 Biden +7
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/29 - 10/31 1000 RV 3.4 52 42 Biden +10
SurveyUSA 10/29 - 10/31 1265 LV 3.2 52 44 Biden +8
FOX News 10/27 - 10/29 1246 LV 2.5 52 44 Biden +8
Harvard-Harris 10/27 - 10/28 LV -- 54 46 Biden +8
The Hill/HarrisX 10/25 - 10/28 2359 LV 2.0 49 45 Biden +4
Emerson 10/25 - 10/26 1121 LV 2.8 50 45 Biden +5

[Luvnit2]

To put the most recent polling in context, 159 million voted in 2020, a record turn out. Biden got over 81 million votes while Trump got over 74 million. If Biden lost 5% of the vote in 2024, he would lose 4.1 million votes, Trump would gain votes making it a possibility Trump beats Biden in the US popular vote. Of course, we use the electoral college.

Trump would win all of the purple states he lost in 2020 and also add some blue states.

Long way to go, but maybe I am wrong, but I don't see Biden's numbers improving by November, he just has a very bad record to run on and he is on the verge of getting us into a World War III while his poor border policies make America vulnerable to terrorist attacks on our soil. Add in the poor economy and Biden's age concerns, he may be closer to his peak now. If so, bad news for liberals in 2024.

[BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI]

At this point, these polls mean nothing as Biden hasn't even started campaigning.  Where you should be paying attention is to the special election results and in red states and areas where the Democrats are winning. This is due to the MAGA extremist right-wing agenda trying to push women's rights and minorities' voting rights back 100 years and eventually do away with all laws protecting civil and constitutional rights.  

Here in a few weeks, Ohio will be voting in a special election, and Issue 1,  addresses women's health care and their rights to protect things like their right to an abortion. Also, the physician is allowed to do their job,  such as a mother's water breaking in 18 weeks, and the fetus not being able to survive in that environment --- the fetus will die before 21-25 weeks, so the OBGYN will have to let fetus die and the mother's blood turn septic before the OBGYN can do a DnC procedure   Congress doesn't need to tell our physician's how to make life and death decisions. 

If issue 1 passes by a 60/40 margin as it did back in August to get it on the ballot, then Democrats are looking at a great 2024.

* I agree with a 25-week ban except for rape, incest, or to save mom's life.

[Luvnit2]

https://www.foxnews.com/media/james-carville-calls-democrats-ludicrous-discuss-bidens-viability

Looks like a staunch liberal Carville want Biden to step aside. He cites polling.
James Carville calls Democrats 'ludicrous' who don't want to discuss Biden's viability
Democratic strategist James Carville said in an interview with the Washington Post that it was "ludicrous" to avoid debating President Biden's viability fo a second term.
Carville told The New York Times in September that it was clear voters did not want Biden to run for re-election.

"The voters don’t want this, and that’s in poll after poll after poll," he said. Worrying these fears could lower voter turnout, he conceded, "You can’t look at what you look at and not feel some apprehension here."
A CNN poll found that 49% of those surveyed flagged Biden’s "age" as their biggest concern about Biden as a presidential candidate. Another 7% said that Biden’s "mental sharpness" was a concern, while 7% said "health," and another 7% said that Biden’s ability to do the job was a cause for concern.

"Well, I guess, to say the least, the polls were not great," Carville said when asked about the poll numbers. "And it tells us that voters are expressing some apprehension here. It’s pretty clear. There’s not much else you can say when you look at them."

Recent polls have shown Biden and former President Trump are neck-and-neck in a hypothetical rematch.

A poll released in October found that most Americans believe the president acted illegally or unethically in how he has handled the controversial business dealings of his son, Hunter.

[Luvnit2]

(10-25-2023, 03:50 PM)BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI Wrote: At this point, these polls mean nothing as Biden hasn't even started campaigning.  Where you should be paying attention is to the special election results and in red states and areas where the Democrats are winning. This is due to the MAGA extremist right-wing agenda trying to push women's rights and minorities' voting rights back 100 years and eventually do away with all laws protecting civil and constitutional rights.  

Here in a few weeks, Ohio will be voting in a special election, and Issue 1,  addresses women's health care and their rights to protect things like their right to an abortion. Also, the physician is allowed to do their job,  such as a mother's water breaking in 18 weeks, and the fetus not being able to survive in that environment --- the fetus will die before 21-25 weeks, so the OBGYN will have to let fetus die and the mother's blood turn septic before the OBGYN can do a DnC procedure   Congress doesn't need to tell our physician's how to make life and death decisions. 

If issue 1 passes by a 60/40 margin as it did back in August to get it on the ballot, then Democrats are looking at a great 2024.

* I agree with a 25-week ban except for rape, incest, or to save mom's life.

Trump is up 10 points in Ohio, sorry abortion on a state ballott will do little to help Biden beat Trump in Ohio.

As far as red states, I review polls probably more than anyone on these boards. For example, Biden leading Trump by only 7 or 9 points in NY should be very alarming to the DNC when Democrats hold a 40% registered voter advantage.

How excited will voters be to go to polls and vote for Biden in 1 year?

Time will tell, but I think his age issues and poor results on major issues will be a major issue for Biden or even a replacement. A sitting President campaigns daily with his policies.

As for abortion, the issue most conservatives have is giving liberals an inch and they take a mile. Most Americans in the US feel abortion should no longer be permitted after 24 weeks unless there is an issue of medical emergency for the baby or mother. I think your example would fall within that guideline. I hope a compromise can be agreed to on a national level (Congress) to eliminate late term abortions (anything after 24 weeks unless for medical reasons it is needed to save baby and or mother.

[*pally*]

(10-26-2023, 01:17 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Trump is up 10 points in Ohio, sorry abortion on a state ballott will do little to help Biden beat Trump in Ohio.

As far as red states, I review polls probably more than anyone on these boards. For example, Biden leading Trump by only 7 or 9 points in NY should be very alarming to the DNC when Democrats hold a 40% registered voter advantage.

How excited will voters be to go to polls and vote for Biden in 1 year?

Time will tell, but I think his age issues and poor results on major issues will be a major issue for Biden or even a replacement. A sitting President campaigns daily with his policies.

As for abortion, the issue most conservatives have is giving liberals an inch and they take a mile. Most Americans in the US feel abortion should no longer be permitted after 24 weeks unless there is an issue of medical emergency for the baby or mother. I think your example would fall within that guideline. I hope a compromise can be agreed to on a national level (Congress) to eliminate late term abortions (anything after 24 weeks unless for medical reasons it is needed to save baby and or mother.

Again, polls more than a year before the election are meaningless...but whatever floats your boat. Just don't be surprised when the votes repeat what happened in 2020.  Even an elderly Joe Biden is better than a destructive revengeful self-absorbed Donald Trump.  

How excited will people be to vote for convicted felon Donald Trump?  And if they do, the right needs to shut up about law and order.  You do not care.

The right has leaders that want to ban abortion at conception.  We've had politicians try to codify the required reimplantation of an ectopic pregnancy.  As noted politicians have banned travel through their jurisdiction to receive LEGAL healthcare.  The RIGHT has already gone that mile and then some.  

Since you like polls, Ohio issue 1 is favored in Ohio by 58% of Ohioans.  There has been record early turnout in Democratic areas of the state.  Issue 1 essentially codifies the restrictions of Roe. It also protects a woman's access to birth control of their choice, since some conservatives want to ban certain types of birth control and protect the rights to fertility treatments.  In other words, it gets politicians out of our uteruses.  Issue 1 is needed because of the extreme legislation of our illegally gerrymandered Ohio legislature.

[GMDino]

(10-26-2023, 01:58 PM)pally Wrote: Again, polls more than a year before the election are meaningless...but whatever floats your boat. Just don't be surprised when the votes repeat what happened in 2020.  Even an elderly Joe Biden is better than a destructive revengeful self-absorbed Donald Trump.  

How excited will people be to vote for convicted felon Donald Trump?  And if they do, the right needs to shut up about law and order.  You do not care.

The right has leaders that want to ban abortion at conception.  We've had politicians try to codify the required reimplantation of an ectopic pregnancy.  As noted politicians have banned travel through their jurisdiction to receive LEGAL healthcare.  The RIGHT has already gone that mile and then some.  

Since you like polls, Ohio issue 1 is favored in Ohio by 58% of Ohioans.  There has been record early turnout in Democratic areas of the state.  Issue 1 essentially codifies the restrictions of Roe. It also protects a woman's access to birth control of their choice, since some conservatives want to ban certain types of birth control and protect the rights to fertility treatments.  In other words, it gets politicians out of our uteruses.  Issue 1 is needed because of the extreme legislation of our illegally gerrymandered Ohio legislature.

Pumping up P01135809 is all he has.  FOX won't let him believe anything else.

[Luvnit2]

(09-04-2023, 02:47 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Everyone knows that The 538 is the only place to go for polling data.  As individual polling services may possibly be skewed or flawed, the 538 computes an average of all polling services to produce a most likely value.  (Credit to Belsnickle for sharing that with the board community)

That is fine with your method, but RCP also lists a ton of polls including all major polls

But feel free to post those poll results

[Luvnit2]

Vet Day Poll results
Friday, November 10
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden Bloomberg/MrnConsult Trump 48, Biden 41 Trump +7
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West Bloomberg/MrnConsult Trump 43, Biden 34, Kennedy 10, West 1 Trump +9
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Bloomberg/MrnConsult Trump 47, Biden 44 Trump +3
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West Bloomberg/MrnConsult Trump 41, Biden 38, Kennedy 8, West 1 Trump +3
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden Bloomberg/MrnConsult Trump 43, Biden 43 Tie
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West Bloomberg/MrnConsult Biden 38, Trump 37, Kennedy 10, West 2 Biden +1
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Bloomberg/MrnConsult Biden 46, Trump 47 Trump +1
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West Bloomberg/MrnConsult Trump 38, Biden 36, Kennedy 13, West 2 Trump +2
Nevada: Trump vs. Biden Bloomberg/MrnConsult Trump 46, Biden 43 Trump +3
Nevada: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West Bloomberg/MrnConsult Trump 39, Biden 35, Kennedy 11, West 1 Trump +4
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden Bloomberg/MrnConsult Trump 46, Biden 42 Trump +4
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West Bloomberg/MrnConsult Trump 40, Biden 36, Kennedy 11, West 1 Trump +4
Ohio: Trump vs. Biden Data for Progress (D)** Trump 51, Biden 43 Trump +8
Ohio Senate - Brown vs. Dolan Data for Progress (D)** Brown 47, Dolan 46 Brown +1
Ohio Senate - Brown vs. LaRose Data for Progress (D)** LaRose 46, Brown 46 Tie
Ohio Senate - Brown vs. Moreno Data for Progress (D)** Brown 47, Moreno 44 Brown +3
Ohio Senate - Republican Primary Data for Progress (D)** LaRose 30, Dolan 20, Moreno 7, Mutchler 0 LaRose +10
President Biden Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 45, Disapprove 53 Disapprove +8

[Luvnit2]

https://www.foxnews.com/media/black-voters-say-turning-away-weak-biden-2024-didnt-change-anything

I know many dismiss polls. I would argue in this case the loss of black voters to the GOP has yet to factored into the model used to get poll results. If they are using 8 or even 10% black support for Trump, they may under polling blacks.

Trump (GOP) received only 8 % of the black vote in 2020. According to recent polls ,he is above 20%, this is not just a Trump gain, this is a GOP gain. Biden is perceived as old and weak. Blacks feel he did nothing to help them.

Black voters say they're turning away from 'weak' Biden in 2024: 'He didn't change anything'
'This is a huge problem,' one battleground state Democrat confessed of Biden losing Black voters

A New York Times/Siena College poll this month raised alarm bells for Democrats after it found Trump had reached an unprecedented level of support from Black voters in battleground states that President Biden won in 2020. Black voters in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are now registering 22 percent support for Trump, up from eight percent in 2020.

Some Black voters in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, told the WSJ they were frustrated by how Biden has handled the economy and won't be voting for him again.

The Democrat from southwest Philadelphia said he would vote for Trump in a Trump-Biden rematch.

A mother from north Philadelphia working two jobs to make ends meet also described feeling let down by the president.

"I really did think he was going to help people in my situation," Michelle Smith, 46, said. "It’s like all of them talk a good game until they get elected."

Smith said she voted for Biden in 2020 but won't vote for him again due to inflation, higher rent prices and a feeling of being ignored, the report said.

"I think I’m not going to vote, period," she confessed.

President Biden bleeding support from Black voters has left some battleground state Democrats panicking.

"I am absolutely concerned. Frankly, I am extremely concerned," one elected Democrat said in the report. "This is a huge problem."

A poll from May showed only 41 percent of Black adults said they wanted Biden to run for a second term, and just 55 percent said they would likely support him in the general election. These figures starkly contrast with his first few months in office, when 9 out of 10 Black voters approved of the job he was doing.

[KillerGoose]

We still have a long way to go before election season, but I think there is enough here to start worrying if you are a Democrat (or Trump opponent). Biden has been polling behind Trump fairly consistently for a few weeks now, including trailing in all but one battleground state. Nate Silver talks about it a little more on his blog, which I enjoy. He is floating the idea of replacing Biden late in the cycle, which is a risk, but also points out how risky it is to nominate him in the first place.

One year ago, I would have said "If the election was today, Trump loses." Today, I am not saying that anymore. We'll have to see how this starts shaping as we get into Q1 & Q2 of 2024.

[Luvnit2]

(11-13-2023, 09:40 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: We still have a long way to go before election season, but I think there is enough here to start worrying if you are a Democrat (or Trump opponent). Biden has been polling behind Trump fairly consistently for a few weeks now, including trailing in all but one battleground state. Nate Silver talks about it a little more on his blog, which I enjoy. He is floating the idea of replacing Biden late in the cycle, which is a risk, but also points out how risky it is to nominate him in the first place.

One year ago, I would have said "If the election was today, Trump loses." Today, I am not saying that anymore. We'll have to see how this starts shaping as we get into Q1 & Q2 of 2024.

Many think I am 100% Trump. The truth is I am for anyone other than a liberal like Biden who has failed the country the past almost 3 years.

I would be on board with a Haley/Scott ticket for example, but only if they can beat Biden easily.

If it is Trump, I hope he chooses Scott or Haley as his running mate. I think based on both the front runners age, the VP choice will carry a lot more weight knowing at a moment's notice the VP could be the POTUS.

I always say long way to go, I could be wrong but not sure Bidenomics will show great improvement in 2024. We also have learned the number of new hire results are skewed due to number of people forced to work 2nd and 3rd jobs.