Coronavirus

[Goalpost]

Figured I'd start a thread on this because the impact has substantial consequences if not already it's made. To the best of my knowledge on this the virus is transmitted from animals to humans 1st. The epicenter is China with the city of Wuhan the culprit, food markets apparently. I've heard references of snakes and bats to other animals being involved with this passing it on, and then of course, humans passing it on.

Much of China's cities are on lockdown due to it spreading...over 50 million people locked down. The virus is mostly a respiratory concern, especially to older or younger people being at the most risk, and even dying from it. Most of the deaths are in China with handfuls throughout other countries now being afflicted.

The virus seems to have a long incubation period, as much as two weeks making it tough to screen. Although you will see many people wearing masks, it seems touch might be the main way to transfer it. Doctors are saying wash your hands, avoid touching your face etc. A medical cure for this is roughly 12 months out, at best.

President Trump has ordered screening at 20 US airports, Airlines are cancelling flights into China. Disney closed it's theme park there. Hotel and casino companies, travel and recreational companies like Royal Caribbean are seeing the effects. The stock market is a bit on edge right now.

If there is any good news, the virus may not be as fatal as other virus's. But it is still early to say, as this virus initiated in China where information can be a bit foggy to come out.

[Benton]

Doc said just to take limes and make the most of it.



I don't get worked up about these things. I know it stinks, but flu like illness complications are always one of the biggest killers globally

[Au165]

It seems to be more hype than actual concern, very similar to how the SARS panic was not really as serious as everyone acted like it would be. During the SARS outbreak years back only 800 people died worldwide. While 800 deaths isn't good, when looking at things like the flu that has killed 8,000 people in the U.S. alone THIS YEAR you realize people tend to sensationalize the new things and disregard the issues they are familiar with.

[GMDino]

The flu can be deadly if you are susceptible to suffering from it worse than others.

A different strain is the same.

[GMDino]

Never mind.

It's good for "business". 

"I don't want to talk about a victory lap" -- Secretary Wilbur Ross on a deadly pandemic https://t.co/EAJqCYuo3Y

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) January 30, 2020

 

[*michaelsean*]

When I first heard about this it sounded as deadly as ebola or something. Maybe a little more dangerous than the average flu to the people who are susceptible?

[GMDino]

(01-30-2020, 10:57 AM)michaelsean Wrote: When I first heard about this it sounded as deadly as ebola or something.  Maybe a little more dangerous than the average flu to the people who are susceptible?

Or worse than vaping?

Just received a briefing on the Coronavirus in China from all of our GREAT agencies, who are also working closely with China. We will continue to monitor the ongoing developments. We have the best experts anywhere in the world, and they are on top of it 24/7! pic.twitter.com/rrtF1Stk78

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 30, 2020

 

[Au165]

(01-30-2020, 10:57 AM)michaelsean Wrote: When I first heard about this it sounded as deadly as ebola or something.  Maybe a little more dangerous than the average flu to the people who are susceptible?

At this point it's less lethal than the average flu but it's still early. The fear is more centered around how easily it spreads but it seems to be less lethal than what was originally thought.

[Benton]

(01-30-2020, 11:50 AM)Au165 Wrote: At this point it's less lethal than the average flu but it's still early. The fear is more centered around how easily it spreads but it seems to be less lethal than what was originally thought.

That's not uncommon with something "new". I say 'new" because lots of strains have been around centuries, gently mutating to adapt and stay alive. 

[Au165]

(01-31-2020, 04:06 AM)Benton Wrote: That's not uncommon with something "new". I say 'new" because lots of strains have been around centuries, gently mutating to adapt and stay alive. 

There are always levels though even in regards to new viruses. I've seen a couple articles that compare it's ability to be transmitted as similar to the 1918 Spanish Flu, which would make it one of the most quickly spreading viruses we have seen in a long time. It's still early in this whole thing so we shall see.

[Benton]

(01-31-2020, 09:24 AM)Au165 Wrote: There are always levels though even in regards to new viruses. I've seen a couple articles that compare it's ability to be transmitted as similar to the 1918 Spanish Flu, which would make it one of the most quickly spreading viruses we have seen in a long time. It's still early in this whole thing so we shall see.

It could be, but what made things like the Spanish Flu is typically what makes all flu strains deadly: lack of access to clean water and basic healthcare.

[Au165]

(01-31-2020, 11:20 AM)Benton Wrote: It could be, but what made things like the Spanish Flu is typically what makes all flu strains deadly: lack of access to clean water and basic healthcare.

It was far more complex then that, It wiped out 675k people in the U.S. many of which had plenty of access to basic heath care ,although it wasn't very good it was the same care they received for other Flu's of the time, and clean water. In fact it originally started with U.S. soldiers it is believed who essentially spread the virus across the country and eventually into Europe when they crossed over to France for the war. What made the Spanish Flu so deadly was that it was not only deadly to the young or elderly but ravished the 20-40 year old demographic at almost the same rate as the more at risk groups. It was unique because it went after the upper and lower respiratory system. By infecting the upper tract it was very easily transmittable but by infecting the lower tract as well it became far more dangerous. This was somewhat unique because most flu viruses are an either or, not necessarily both.

Coming back full circle to this strain of coronavirus, it's how easily it can be transmitted that has scientist worried. It doesn't appear the mortality rate is especially high when treated for non at risk groups but there is a certain amount of degradation in healthcare overall if the system gets over run.

[Benton]

(01-31-2020, 12:04 PM)Au165 Wrote: It was far more complex then that, It wiped out 675k people in the U.S. many of which had plenty of access to basic heath care ,although it wasn't very good it was the same care they received for other Flu's of the time, and clean water. In fact it originally started with U.S. soldiers it is believed who essentially spread the virus across the country and eventually into Europe when they crossed over to France for the war. What made the Spanish Flu so deadly was that it was not only deadly to the young or elderly but ravished the 20-40 year old demographic at almost the same rate as the more at risk groups. It was unique because it went after the upper and lower respiratory system. By infecting the upper tract it was very easily transmittable but by infecting the lower tract as well it became far more dangerous. This was somewhat unique because most flu viruses are an either or, not necessarily both.

Coming back full circle to this strain of coronavirus, it's how easily it can be transmitted that has scientist worried. It doesn't appear the mortality rate is especially high when treated for non at risk groups but there is a certain amount of degradation in healthcare overall if the system gets over run.

https://insider.si.edu/2015/01/six-cold-flu-medicines-youre-not-taking-today-good-reason/

Healthcare today is a lot different than healthcare in the early 1900s. Medical treatment for the flu, even in the US, would have included whiskey, menthol smokes, bloodletting and quinine (one of the items listed at the link). Quinine kills parasites, but, as we know now, doesn't do anything for the flu.

And even today, there's places in the US where the majority of the community doesn't have potable water. I worked in a county for over a decade and one of their biggest local government achievements was finally running water line to every main road in the county. Not every neighborhood, just state highway. And it's not just rural places. Look at Detroit's water woes. It's hard to fight off infections and diseases when your water isn't clean, making your organs work even harder.

[Au165]

(01-31-2020, 01:21 PM)Benton Wrote: https://insider.si.edu/2015/01/six-cold-flu-medicines-youre-not-taking-today-good-reason/

Healthcare today is a lot different than healthcare in the early 1900s. Medical treatment for the flu, even in the US, would have included whiskey, menthol smokes, bloodletting and quinine (one of the items listed at the link). Quinine kills parasites, but, as we know now, doesn't do anything for the flu.

And even today, there's places in the US where the majority of the community doesn't have potable water. I worked in a county for over a decade and one of their biggest local government achievements was finally running water line to every main road in the county. Not every neighborhood, just state highway. And it's not just rural places. Look at Detroit's water woes. It's hard to fight off infections and diseases when your water isn't clean, making your organs work even harder.

Your article is a fun read but that's not what made the Spanish Flu as deadly as it was, or why it spread so quickly. I covered those reasons, but there is a lot of good information out there on it. World wide it killed 50 Million people, there had been other world wide pandemics in that same time period that didn't kill close to that so t put it off to healthcare and clean water is disregarding other diseases were treated under those same conditions. For instance the Russian Flu that occurred in 1889 to 1890 only killed about a million people with worse conditions 30 years prior but had far less death.

Genetic makeup of viruses matter, that is my point. The things I am reading are from world renowned scientists and they are the ones saying it potentially could be able to spread at a rate of the Spanish Flu. The lethality of the virus as I said earlier isn't the scary part it's how hard it is to contain because with higher volume the quality of health care will drop in general. Obviously no disease today would be as lethal, hell the plague isn't as lethal today because of medicine, but the reality is we are still at risk of being overrun by a disease that is highly adept to person to person transmission.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(01-31-2020, 12:04 PM)Au165 Wrote: It was far more complex then that, It wiped out 675k people in the U.S. many of which had plenty of access to basic heath care ,although it wasn't very good it was the same care they received for other Flu's of the time, and clean water. In fact it originally started with U.S. soldiers it is believed who essentially spread the virus across the country and eventually into Europe when they crossed over to France for the war. What made the Spanish Flu so deadly was that it was not only deadly to the young or elderly but ravished the 20-40 year old demographic at almost the same rate as the more at risk groups. It was unique because it went after the upper and lower respiratory system. By infecting the upper tract it was very easily transmittable but by infecting the lower tract as well it became far more dangerous. This was somewhat unique because most flu viruses are an either or, not necessarily both.

Coming back full circle to this strain of coronavirus, it's how easily it can be transmitted that has scientist worried. It doesn't appear the mortality rate is especially high when treated for non at risk groups but there is a certain amount of degradation in healthcare overall if the system gets over run.

People generally don’t die of the flu. The generally die of complications from the flu. Like the pneumonia they got as a result of getting the flu first. Usually, these complications affect high risk groups; under age 2, over age 65, chronic diseases, such as asthma or diabetes, they take medicines which can suppress their immune system like methotrexate, or they’ve had a surgery which can affect their immune system such as a splenectomy.

Most healthy adults with a normal working immune system usually feel terrible for about a week, but recover. With the information you provided it makes me suspect the Spanish Flu most likely caused pneumonia in these usually low risk patients. I wonder if they got a community acquired pneumonia which could be treated with an antibiotic which wasn’t available then? If so, I would expect a lower mortality rate during a similar outbreak today. Or did they get a viral pneumonia in which case an antibiotic wouldn’t have been effective if it was available? If the leading cause of mortality was a viral pneumonia as a complication of the flu what would the mortality rate be like today?

[Belsnickel]

Well, I guess it's a good thing that Trump Has Sabotaged America’s Coronavirus Response

Quote:When Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the World Health Organization (WHO), declared the Wuhan coronavirus a public health emergency of international concern on Thursday, he praised China for taking “unprecedented” steps to control the deadly virus. “I have never seen for myself this kind of mobilization,” he noted. “China is actually setting a new standard for outbreak response.”

The epidemic control efforts unfolding today in China—including placing some 100 million citizens on lockdown, shutting down a national holiday, building enormous quarantine hospitals in days’ time, and ramping up 24-hour manufacturing of medical equipment—are indeed gargantuan. It’s impossible to watch them without wondering, “What would we do? How would my government respond if this virus spread across my country?”

For the United States, the answers are especially worrying because the government has intentionally rendered itself incapable. In 2018, the Trump administration fired the government’s entire pandemic response chain of command, including the White House management infrastructure. In numerous phone calls and emails with key agencies across the U.S. government, the only consistent response I encountered was distressed confusion. If the United States still has a clear chain of command for pandemic response, the White House urgently needs to clarify what it is—not just for the public but for the government itself, which largely finds itself in the dark.

[GMDino]

Trump proves again that he is completely clueless...

Part 1

Referring to the coronavirus, Trump says he was told by China's President Xi, "By April, during the month of April, the heat generally kills this kind of virus, so that would be a good thing." pic.twitter.com/AbYyX4qRzZ

— Oliver Willis (@owillis) February 10, 2020

 


Part 2


https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/02/11/trump-proposes-16-cut-to-cdc-as-global-number-of-coronavirus-infections-and-deaths-rise/?fbclid=IwAR3GwJjT8y5vaJqQ2Qa83hCr_MvXlPIZGZuFDDO-i-96ubMeZIqXwgmKE_o#2b00ba3918da

Quote:Trump Proposes 16% Cut To CDC As Global Number Of Coronavirus Infections And Deaths Rise


An additional 34% reduction is proposed for overall global health programs, but Trump is asking for ... [+]

Topline: As the coronavirus continues to spread, President Trump’s proposed 2021 budget calls for drastic cuts to funding for the Centers for Disease Control and the World Health Organization that critics say could prevent preparedness for a pandemic at home. 

• Trump released his proposed 2021 budget Monday, which included a 16% cut to the CDC’s budget and a 10% overall reduction to the Department of Health and Human Services’ funding, according to the Washington Post.
• The U.S. contributes about 2.5% of the World Health Organization’s overall $4.8 billion budget, and Trump’s proposal calls for a $65 million cut to the group; if enacted, the U.S.’ contribution would be reduced by over 40%. 
• An additional 34% reduction is proposed for overall global health programs, but Trump is asking for $115 million to be set aside for global health security for the purpose of combating “infectious disease threats.” 
• However, the proposed budget is unlikely to pass the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives, which the Post notes has the power of the purse, and will ultimately decide how the funds will be spent, after various committees weigh in.  
• The coronavirus⁠ (which was renamed Tuesday by the World Health Organization as COVID-19) has not been declared a pandemic, but the group has called for an immediate $675 million investment in “rational and evidence-based interventions” to stop the outbreak.
• As of Monday, the U.S. has 12 confirmed cases, with one patient erroneously diagnosed as testing negative for the disease, based on a “mix-up” between the CDC and a San Diego hospital, CNN reported.
  

Chief critics: The Senate Budget Committee (led by Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) as the ranking member) said Trump’s budget would “destroy discretionary programs [by] cutting them by $1.9 trillion. These are things like Section 8, Head Start, WIC, LIHEAP, public housing, NOAA, NIH, NASA, NSF, the CDC—most of the programs that we think of when we think of what the government does.” And James Hamblin, a doctor who writes for The Atlantic, said on Twitter that the budget “doesn’t consider pandemic preparedness a matter of national security.”

What to watch for: How Trump and his administration continue to respond to coronavirus. During a Monday speech in New Hampshire, Trump said, “By April . . . when it gets a little warmer, [coronavirus] miraculously goes away,” a theory debunked by infectious disease experts. The president is a known germaphobe, and experts are concerned that Trump’s phobia, combined with his suspicions of foreigners and previous dismissals of science, could be dangerous.



Key background: Trump’s budget proposals have historically taken aim at science funding, although the 2021 proposal amps up spending for NASA⁠—to get astronauts back on the moon⁠—and to build the National Quantum Internet, which would theoretically be impossible to hack, according to the Post. Including HHS and the CDC, other programs possibly facing deep cuts include affordable housing, student loan assistance, Medicaid and food stamps. But the budget will wend its way through the Congressional Budget Office, as well as House and Senate committees and subcommittees, before any dollar amounts are approved by Congress. “Presidents’ budgets are a reflection of administration priorities, but in the end, they are just a list of suggestions,” Sen. Michael M. Enzi (R-Wyo.), who chairs the Senate Budget Committee, told the New York Times Monday.  

Tangent: WHO said the coronavirus’ new name, COVID-19, which comes from “coronavirus disease” and the year in which it was discovered, was chosen to avoid stigma based on geographical location, the name of an animal, a person or a group of people. 

I sincerely doubt he can his budget passed but it's always nice to see what Trump's "priorities"are with them.

[GMDino]

You all are NOT going to believe this but DJT said in India today that many people are saying he has handled the disease perfectly by not allowing certain people into the country (perhaps never done before) AND he's requesting 2.5 billion to study it.



Meanwhile...

Some perspective on Trump's $2.5 billion #coronavirus request:

-His budget cuts $3 billion from global health programs, $3 billion from NIH, and another 16% from CDC

-He's eliminated WH pandemic position

-He's more concerned about health of stock market than public health https://t.co/KyeJRYFzvI

— Chris Lu (@ChrisLu44) February 25, 2020

 

[Goalpost]

So an update on this. There have been 80,290 confirmed cases with 2704 deaths. Asia/Pacific is responsible for 79,809 of the cases. The stock market tanked yesterday about 1000 points. The big story seemed to be the spreading of....with Iran, South Korea, and Italy seeing increases in infections with. There is an issue here with containing this. So much of the focus has been on China and restricting travel. Unfortunately it has spread into other countries, and with this incubation period that the virus operates at, it is difficult to get accurate testing. You have to wonder now where the virus has spread to...do you create travel bans to other countries....and have people already slipped thru from now Italy or some other country, etc. It seems drug companies are working pro actively with this attempting to create a vaccine. Gilead and other biotech companies along with Johnson and Johnson seem to be the fore leaders here. All is not lost.....Dupont cant make lab suits quick enough...ha.

[GMDino]

Some more of Trump's "best people" handling this.

I just tried again, and it looks like Johns Hopkins put the information behind a membership wall of some kind. Seems like bad timing to stop helping the world with this (previously) useful resource. Here's hoping it goes back up soon.

— Acting Deputy Secretary Ken Cuccinelli (@HomelandKen) February 24, 2020

 

Great news on the virus information front... in addition to https://t.co/cWXnMtAwVn, Johns Hopkins’ website is back up too. Apparently it crashed b/c so many people have been going to it to get info on the virus’ progression.

— Acting Deputy Secretary Ken Cuccinelli (@HomelandKen) February 24, 2020