Coronavirus Information...who do you trust?

[*michaelsean*]

(07-15-2020, 08:01 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: So, my sister is a scientist and progressive as hell. We both enjoy statistics because, well, statistics. She put this together.


What you see here is the new cases for the second week of July in each state. Negative numbers means the case rate is going down. This is all normalized for population, meaning these are cases per 100,000 residents. Now, when I say my sister is progressive, it is because she decided to break it out by states that voted for Clinton v. Trump in 2016; this the red and the blue. Then she ran a t-test on that data, which came in at p=0.0002. Interesting stuff.

So if Biden wins and flips a bunch of states are we going to see this chart again?  Florida and Lousisiana  could easily go Biden.  

Edit: And this chart sort of treats states like one belief. Some are runaway blue or red, but many are purple with narrow margins. Personally I'm going to say dividing it into blue and red via presidential vote was something she noticed would favor her ideology and serves no real purpose.

Super Edit: I forgot to add "No offense". Whew

[Belsnickel]

(07-16-2020, 10:06 AM)michaelsean Wrote: So if Biden wins and flips a bunch of states are we going to see this chart again?  Florida and Lousisiana  could easily go Biden.  

And this chart sort of treats states like one belief. Some are runaway blue or red, but many are purple with narrow margins.

No category is perfect, we just have to do the best we can. The election result from 2016 is the best choice for the categories. As for seeing it if Biden wins, I doubt you'll see it next week (it's weekly data). This was just something my sister threw together. I'd say it was out of boredom, but she has a 5 year old, a farm, and they just bought a rental property they are fixing up, so I don't know when the hell she has time to do anything.

[BmorePat87]

(07-16-2020, 10:06 AM)michaelsean Wrote: So if Biden wins and flips a bunch of states are we going to see this chart again?  Florida and Lousisiana  could easily go Biden.  

Edit: And this chart sort of treats states like one belief.  Some are runaway blue or red, but many are purple with narrow margins.  Personally I'm going to say dividing it into blue and red via presidential vote was something she noticed would favor her ideology and serves no real purpose.

Super Edit:  I forgot to add "No offense".  Whew

(07-16-2020, 10:12 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: No category is perfect, we just have to do the best we can. The election result from 2016 is the best choice for the categories. As for seeing it if Biden wins, I doubt you'll see it next week (it's weekly data). This was just something my sister threw together. I'd say it was out of boredom, but she has a 5 year old, a farm, and they just bought a rental property they are fixing up, so I don't know when the hell she has time to do anything.

I understand this was posted not as something to be published but out of personal interest, and I am not knocking it as it is still a good graph, but as a social studies teacher, I would want to see the same chart with governor party and legislature party as well. All three would be relevant. 

For example, Maryland is heavy blue but with a GOP governor. He is mostly responding to the will of the liberal population, which puts him at odds with many high profile governors. The fact that he is a Republican, the legislature is a veto proof Dem majority, and the state voted heavy Clinton all play into that. 

Louisiana has a blue governor but heavy red legislature and went heavy Trump. Their governor is trying to implement covid rules but is having their GOP AG push back on it as illegal. 

Beyond ideology, we'd also need to see it groups by mask and closure policies, which then could also have their own ideological graphs to see if thse policies correlate to party. 

[BmorePat87]

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/16/891718516/georgias-governor-issues-order-rescinding-local-mask-mandates?fbclid=IwAR3P9rL8uVljXDwbhS360DjMHqaFbomvMGWUE7RgR8sSfuIfFHZ1P2jPP4A

The governor of Georgia is pushing back on any locality that tries to implement mandatory mask use, saying that no local rule could be more or less stringent than his, which is just an executive order asking people to consider wearing masks but not requiring it.

This means no city can require masks to be worn in public buildings. This comes as the the Mayor of Atlanta accused Trump of breaking her city's law by not wearing a mask, which the WH then responded to by saying he was following the CDC's guidelines.

[*jason*]

(07-16-2020, 11:19 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/16/891718516/georgias-governor-issues-order-rescinding-local-mask-mandates?fbclid=IwAR3P9rL8uVljXDwbhS360DjMHqaFbomvMGWUE7RgR8sSfuIfFHZ1P2jPP4A

The governor of Georgia is pushing back on any locality that tries to implement mandatory mask use, saying that no local rule could be more or less stringent than his, which is just an executive order asking people to consider wearing masks but not requiring it.

This means no city can require masks to be worn in public buildings. This comes as the the Mayor of Atlanta accused Trump of breaking her city's law by not wearing a mask, which the WH then responded to by saying he was following the CDC's guidelines.

When Ohio reopened governor DeWine ® ordered masks in public. The next day he reversed course because of complaints, and said he went too far. All the while he has encouraged using a mask. A couple of weeks ago the mayor of Dayton, a Democrat ordered a city wide mask mandate. DeWine jumped back in, and ordered it county wide. This also includes all of the metro counties except Hamilton (Cincinnati)... And they are on the brink.

On Tuesday, DeWine cancelled his briefing and anounceed he would give a speech Wednesday evening... People wondered what was coming. The speech was sort of a heart to heart talk. In an encouraging way he essentially told us if you wanna be Florida or Texas keep doing what you're doing. He said this is our second chance, and come the fall and winter we will not get a third. He stopped short of a state wide mandate, and is being called a coward by Dems, and having republican lawmakers telling the public to disregard him.

I was walking into a gas station this morning. As I got to the door I was putting a mask on when an employee told me they had to put a sign on the door, but aren't enforcing it. I didn't respond. I'm just about done with a certain segment of my fellow citizens.

[Earendil]

I see that Walmart is now mandating masks in all their stores. While I applaud their efforts, it's hard enough to get people to wear pants in Walmart. How do they expect to enforce masks?

[*bfine32*]

(07-16-2020, 11:10 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: I understand this was posted not as something to be published but out of personal interest, and I am not knocking it as it is still a good graph, but as a social studies teacher, I would want to see the same chart with governor party and legislature party as well. All three would be relevant. 

For example, Maryland is heavy blue but with a GOP governor. He is mostly responding to the will of the liberal population, which puts him at odds with many high profile governors. The fact that he is a Republican, the legislature is a veto proof Dem majority, and the state voted heavy Clinton all play into that. 

Louisiana has a blue governor but heavy red legislature and went heavy Trump. Their governor is trying to implement covid rules but is having their GOP AG push back on it as illegal. 

Beyond ideology, we'd also need to see it groups by mask and closure policies, which then could also have their own ideological graphs to see if thse policies correlate to party. 

Damn

[*bfine32*]

(07-16-2020, 12:36 PM)Earendil Wrote: I see that Walmart is now mandating masks in all their stores.  While I applaud their efforts, it's hard enough to get people to wear pants in Walmart. How do they expect to enforce masks?

The whole "only shop in this direction" is a hoot. They cannot count to 10 items or less.

[Earendil]

(07-16-2020, 01:01 PM)bfine32 Wrote: The whole "only shop in this direction" is a hoot. They cannot count to 10 items or less.

I'll admit, the last time I was in Publix I went down the aisle the wrong way. But I was also in a hurry because I was trying to get in and out before my mask made me have a panic attack.

[BmorePat87]

(07-16-2020, 12:36 PM)Earendil Wrote: I see that Walmart is now mandating masks in all their stores.  While I applaud their efforts, it's hard enough to get people to wear pants in Walmart. How do they expect to enforce masks?

My wife a manager at a family owned hardware store in a liberal state that has mandated masks for months and she still gets shit from people about their masks. 

I cannot imagine being a worker on Walmart in a state like Georgia trying to enforce this. Why even bother? It won't be worth the vitriol. 

[BmorePat87]

(07-16-2020, 12:27 PM)jason Wrote: When Ohio reopened governor DeWine ® ordered masks in public. The next day he reversed course because of complaints, and said he went too far. All the while he has encouraged using a mask. A couple of weeks ago the mayor of Dayton, a Democrat ordered a city wide mask mandate. DeWine jumped back in, and ordered it county wide. This also includes all of the metro counties except Hamilton (Cincinnati)... And they are on the brink.

On Tuesday, DeWine cancelled his briefing and anounceed he would give a speech Wednesday evening... People wondered what was coming. The speech was sort of a heart to heart talk. In an encouraging way he essentially told us if you wanna be Florida or Texas keep doing what you're doing. He said this is our second chance, and come the fall and winter we will not get a third. He stopped short of a state wide mandate, and is being called a coward by Dems, and having republican lawmakers telling the public to disregard him.

I was walking into a gas station this morning. As I got to the door I was putting a mask on when an employee told me they had to put a sign on the door, but aren't enforcing it. I didn't respond. I'm just about done with a certain segment of my fellow citizens.

Meanwhile Hogan came out swiftly with the mask order and hasn't looked back. He's jockeying for 2024, but at least he is banking on his defying Trump being a plus for 2024.

[Belsnickel]

(07-16-2020, 11:10 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: I understand this was posted not as something to be published but out of personal interest, and I am not knocking it as it is still a good graph, but as a social studies teacher, I would want to see the same chart with governor party and legislature party as well. All three would be relevant. 

For example, Maryland is heavy blue but with a GOP governor. He is mostly responding to the will of the liberal population, which puts him at odds with many high profile governors. The fact that he is a Republican, the legislature is a veto proof Dem majority, and the state voted heavy Clinton all play into that. 

Louisiana has a blue governor but heavy red legislature and went heavy Trump. Their governor is trying to implement covid rules but is having their GOP AG push back on it as illegal. 

Beyond ideology, we'd also need to see it groups by mask and closure policies, which then could also have their own ideological graphs to see if thse policies correlate to party. 

Looking at those comparisons could be relevant and could provide a more comprehensive picture. However, the most useful category is still the 2016 election results. Even if you looked at the legislature and governor makeups, you have too much of a spectrum on ideology. When you compare election results of those two people, it isn't just a party breakdown, it is two individuals. When you break it up by party but multiple people, the categories really become useless for any sort of comparative statistics.

The idea behind providing comparative statistics like this is to provide the information in an easily digestible format that still provides the correct information. Looking at governors or legislatures alone wouldn't work because, as you point out, often the governor is playing to the tune of the legislature. Well,t he legislature is bicameral in all but one state, so what if that is split? If unified, for or against? And how far to the left or right is each chamber and the executive? There is no way to do that comparison without at least eight categories on party alone, not getting into ideological spectrum. That is a much more complex analysis that would not be as helpful to the reader. Would it be interesting data to get into? Sure. But it defeats the purpose of providing a graph like that when it gets that complex.

[BmorePat87]

(07-16-2020, 02:08 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: Looking at those comparisons could be relevant and could provide a more comprehensive picture. However, the most useful category is still the 2016 election results. Even if you looked at the legislature and governor makeups, you have too much of a spectrum on ideology. When you compare election results of those two people, it isn't just a party breakdown, it is two individuals. When you break it up by party but multiple people, the categories really become useless for any sort of comparative statistics.

The idea behind providing comparative statistics like this is to provide the information in an easily digestible format that still provides the correct information. Looking at governors or legislatures alone wouldn't work because, as you point out, often the governor is playing to the tune of the legislature. Well,t he legislature is bicameral in all but one state, so what if that is split? If unified, for or against? And how far to the left or right is each chamber and the executive? There is no way to do that comparison without at least eight categories on party alone, not getting into ideological spectrum. That is a much more complex analysis that would not be as helpful to the reader. Would it be interesting data to get into? Sure. But it defeats the purpose of providing a graph like that when it gets that complex.

Like I said, I get why it was made, the legitimacy of comparing those two stats, and it's a fair argument to make to look at voter preference Trump given the role Trump has taken in supporting or opposing covid measures. This is more easily digestible. 

But, as someone who works in a related field and wants to see more, I also want to get into the nuances beyond that. That part is a personal preference and not an indictment of the graphic itself. 

[Earendil]

I don't understand why wearing a mask is a political stance at all. And no amount of explaining it will convince me.

[hollodero]

(07-16-2020, 03:00 PM)Earendil Wrote: I don't understand why wearing a mask is a political stance at all.  And no amount of explaining it will convince me.

Yeah that is really the most amazing thing, how wearing a mask in public, keeping social distance and avoiding large gatherings to fight an epidemic got politicized.

Only in America. Really.

[*Nately120*]

(07-16-2020, 03:28 PM)hollodero Wrote: Yeah that is really the most amazing thing, how wearing a mask in public, keeping social distance and avoiding large gatherings to fight an epidemic got politicized.

Only in America. Really.

I don't usually buy into the whole "these younger generations are weak!" hyperbole, but the idea that my father, uncle, grandfathers etc were plucked from their normal lives by the government and sent across the globe to fight to protect America and we are throwing fits over having to wear masks to save American lives really makes us look like a bunch of entitled wimps.

I guess in hindsight my ol' man should have just declared Vietnam to be a big hoax designed to slander LBJ and he could have stayed home and smoked pot. I'm not a draft-dodger and I'm not a mask-dodger...I don't need to sacrifice because there is no danger at all. That was easy.

[Earendil]

My brother-in-law's sister just had a gender reveal party with 80 people and no masks, distancing, etc... 

[*jason*]

(07-16-2020, 03:00 PM)Earendil Wrote: I don't understand why wearing a mask is a political stance at all. And no amount of explaining it will convince me.

It's more petulantly childish than it is political.

[*Nately120*]

(07-16-2020, 05:24 PM)Earendil Wrote: My brother-in-law's sister just had a gender reveal party with 80 people and no masks, distancing, etc... 

Virus Reveal party. 

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(07-16-2020, 11:19 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/16/891718516/georgias-governor-issues-order-rescinding-local-mask-mandates?fbclid=IwAR3P9rL8uVljXDwbhS360DjMHqaFbomvMGWUE7RgR8sSfuIfFHZ1P2jPP4A

The governor of Georgia is pushing back on any locality that tries to implement mandatory mask use, saying that no local rule could be more or less stringent than his, which is just an executive order asking people to consider wearing masks but not requiring it.

This means no city can require masks to be worn in public buildings. This comes as the the Mayor of Atlanta accused Trump of breaking her city's law by not wearing a mask, which the WH then responded to by saying he was following the CDC's guidelines.

I guess there are state’s rights, but none for government bodies below the state level.