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Crunch Time - Reds
#1
The 2nd half of the season is upon us and the next two weeks will go a loooong way towards determining the Reds fate. There's 10 games in there against the Cards, Brewers, and Cubs with 3 at Rockies thrown in only the 4 against Cards are at home. Suffice is to say they need to do really well in this stretch.

The trade deadline is looming at the end of the month, which direction do they go ? Buy or sell ? Or just stand pat ? I'd say much depends on these two weeks.

https://www.mlb.com/reds/news/reds-could-be-buyers-before-trade-deadline
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#2
I think the Reds may buy AND sell if the price is right. I think two players in Gennett and Roark are on the block. Roark would maybe get some decent players in return. I think the Reds will keep Puig beyond this year if the price is right. I think they extend iggy (ss) and maybe Dietrich if they do not over charge. Senzel is doing well in CF but if Gennett is moved, he could go back to 2nd base. Hated to see Gennett's injury and I think it may cost him a lucrative contract, at least with the Reds.

Although Roark has been slightly better than Gray this year, I cannot see the Reds extending his contract. But I have been wrong before (See Castillo "meh"). Wood, if healthy, can be better than Roark and if he pitches this year well, I could see the team extending him for another year (prove me) contract. Reds need to find someone to replace Mahle.
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#3
I remember the Reds were only 6 games out of first and became sellers a few years ago. I think the same is about to happen. We could easily catch the division, but the Reds are quick to pull the trigger based on past history. I feel the Reds are going to move a few players like Gennett and Diektrich for some bullpen help. That's okay as long as they keep Puig and Izzy.
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#4
(07-11-2019, 04:39 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: I think the Reds may buy AND sell if the price is right. I think two players in Gennett and Roark are on the block. Roark would maybe get some decent players in return. I think the Reds will keep Puig beyond this year if the price is right. I think they extend iggy (ss) and maybe Dietrich if they do not over charge. Senzel is doing well in CF but if Gennett is moved, he could go back to 2nd base. Hated to see Gennett's injury and I think it may cost him a lucrative contract, at least with the Reds.

Although Roark has been slightly better than Gray this year, I cannot see the Reds extending his contract. But I have been wrong before (See Castillo "meh"). Wood, if healthy, can be better than Roark and if he pitches this year well, I could see the team extending him for another year (prove me) contract. Reds need to find someone to replace Mahle.

I don’t think you can trade Gennet at this point, he has zero value. If he had been able to comeback and have a few good games, then maybe, but he came back and had a setback. What contender would want an injured player?
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#5
I think players with good trade value right now are Jose Iglesias, Dietrich, Roark, and Puig.
Puig especially because he's really heated up and Ervin is waiting in the wings.
I think Dietrich has some value for an AL team looking for a power bat but he's really cooled off lately from a BA and HR standpoint. He's still getting on base via HBP though lol.
Roark worth trading too if he can fetch a good young pitcher as a replacement, as I don't know if the Reds have someone ready to come up next year to replace him. I don't believe Santillan is ready just yet. Reds could also find some cheaper veteran for a replacement like they did with Alfredo Simon or Dan Straily a few years ago.
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#6
(07-12-2019, 10:34 AM)Yojimbo Wrote: I don’t think you can trade Gennet at this point, he has zero value. If he had been able to comeback and have a few good games, then maybe, but he came back and had a setback. What contender would want an injured player?

Agree,

I believe Gennet's trade value is pretty minimal. 

(07-12-2019, 02:51 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I think players with good trade value right now are Jose Iglesias, Dietrich, Roark, and Puig.
Puig especially because he's really heated up and Ervin is waiting in the wings.
I think Dietrich has some value for an AL team looking for a power bat but he's really cooled off lately from a BA and HR standpoint. He's still getting on base via HBP though lol.
Roark worth trading too if he can fetch a good young pitcher as a replacement, as I don't know if the Reds have someone ready to come up next year to replace him. I don't believe Santillan is ready just yet. Reds could also find some cheaper veteran for a replacement like they did with Alfredo Simon or Dan Straily a few years ago.

If they would have traded Dietrich like end of May they might have got something ? Now, I doubt he carries much weight.
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#7
(07-11-2019, 04:39 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: I think the Reds may buy AND sell if the price is right. I think two players in Gennett and Roark are on the block. Roark would maybe get some decent players in return. I think the Reds will keep Puig beyond this year if the price is right. I think they extend iggy (ss) and maybe Dietrich if they do not over charge. Senzel is doing well in CF but if Gennett is moved, he could go back to 2nd base. Hated to see Gennett's injury and I think it may cost him a lucrative contract, at least with the Reds.

Although Roark has been slightly better than Gray this year, I cannot see the Reds extending his contract. But I have been wrong before (See Castillo "meh"). Wood, if healthy, can be better than Roark and if he pitches this year well, I could see the team extending him for another year (prove me) contract. Reds need to find someone to replace Mahle.

Mahle isn’t that bad. He’s the weakest link in the rotation but is better than most teams number 4 and 5 starters. His ERA is under 4.5 and he has a .9 WAR. He strikes out 9.5 per 9 while only walking 2.5 per 9. The Reds haven’t scored Runs when he pitches. He does give up too many Home Runs at just under 2 per 9 but he’s cheap and that matters to teams that won’t spend much on payroll. He usually keeps you in games and that matters playing in that ballpark when the balls are obviously juiced.
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#8
(07-13-2019, 05:22 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: Mahle isn’t that bad. He’s the weakest link in the rotation but is better than most teams number 4 and 5 starters. His ERA is under 4.5 and he has a .9 WAR.  He strikes out 9.5 per 9 while only walking 2.5 per 9. The Reds haven’t scored Runs when he pitches. He does give up too many Home Runs at just under 2 per 9 but he’s cheap and that matters to teams that won’t spend much on payroll. He usually keeps you in games and that matters playing in that ballpark when the balls are obviously juiced.

Mahle suffers from a severe case of his team sucking ass at the plate, especially when he pitches. Other than that, he's progressed nicely in his second year.
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#9
(07-13-2019, 07:15 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: Mahle suffers from a severe case of his team sucking ass at the plate, especially when he pitches. Other than that, he's progressed nicely in his second year.

Yep, he’s far from a problem area on the team. The Reds would probably have to replace him with a guy making 10 million a year to get much better. This team(especially with the Votto contract) can’t afford to pay a number 5 10 million per year.
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#10
The Reds are now 6 1/2 out after two disappointing one run losses. This next stretch 3-cubs, 4-Cards and 3-Brew Crew will probably determine the season. I say that because it could very well take away the grey area of buy or sell. My opinion is that one of the Cubs or Brewers will start to put some space between the rest, probably the Cubs. I would almost just go into sell mode if they lose 2 of 3 to the Cubs. The thing is that there isn’t much in-house that will bring much of a return. I think it will be a sellers market though because of how many teams have a wildcard shot. There’s just so many teams to leapfrog for a playoff spot. If they do buy, it better be for someone with team control. They shouldn’t give up any good prospects for a one year shot this year. The team just feels like it will finish in 4th or 5th place. They can’t gain anything without giving it right back.
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#11
Mahle suffers from an acute case of Bellitis.. such as leaving him in to cough up 6 runs in the 5th inning, etc..and yanking him when he's actually pitching good.
Bell doesn't deserve to be fired. He deserves to be hung from the stacks in GABP before the next game.
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#12
(07-14-2019, 08:08 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: The Reds are now 6 1/2 out after two disappointing one run losses. This next stretch 3-cubs, 4-Cards and 3-Brew Crew will probably determine the season. I say that because it could very well take away the grey area of buy or sell. My opinion is that one of the Cubs or Brewers will start to put some space between the rest, probably the Cubs. I would almost just go into sell mode if they lose 2 of 3 to the Cubs. The thing is that there isn’t much in-house that will bring much of a return. I think it will be a sellers market though because of how many teams have a wildcard shot. There’s just so many teams to leapfrog for a playoff spot. If they do buy, it better be for someone with team control. They shouldn’t give up any good prospects for a one year shot this year. The team just feels  like it will finish in 4th or 5th place. They can’t gain anything without giving it right back.

Since they bought Bell for what he's worth sell him for what he thinks he's worth and build a new domed stadium with the proceeds and give every fan $1000 just for driving by the stadium on Tuesdays.
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#13
Lets be honest here. The Reds are already in sell mode. They need bullpen help and maybe another starter. I don't see this team finishing the rest of the season on a winning note. The question is what pieces will they sell? Maybe Puig or Iggy are the most tradeable.
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#14
(07-14-2019, 09:11 PM)grampahol Wrote: Since they bought Bell for what he's worth sell him for what he thinks he's worth and build a new domed stadium with the proceeds and give every fan $1000 just for driving by the stadium on Tuesdays.

I’d argue that they paid Bell more than what he’s worth and I don’t know what they paid him.
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#15
(07-14-2019, 09:56 PM)guyofthetiger Wrote: Lets be honest here. The Reds are already in sell mode. They need bullpen help and maybe another starter. I don't see this team finishing the rest of the season on a winning note. The question is what pieces will they sell? Maybe Puig or Iggy are the most tradeable.

I was initially against offering Puig a deal but I’m for signing him now if it can get done at a reasonable rate.
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#16
Keep Puig. Quit hating on Bell. The team is not fully there yet and Bell is in his Rookie season as manager. They need another solid starter to replace Mahle and Disco to get it together. Funny how Disco was one of the better pitchers on the staff and now looks like #5-6 in rotation. I still would sign disco to another year. If Wood can pitch well in the last month, if at all, I would maybe sign the lefty to another year as well.

Roark has been solid with exception of his last poor outing. I don't know what he is worth. Sims has 4.57 ERA in minors so there goes that option.
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#17
(07-15-2019, 12:55 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: Keep Puig. Quit hating on Bell. The team is not fully there yet and Bell is in his Rookie season as manager. They need another solid starter to replace Mahle and Disco to get it together. Funny how Disco was one of the better pitchers on the staff and now looks like #5-6 in rotation. I still would sign disco to another year. If Wood can pitch well in the last month, if at all, I would maybe sign the lefty to another year as well.

Roark has been solid with exception of his last poor outing. I don't know what he is worth. Sims has 4.57 ERA in minors so there goes that option.

Bell is open to both criticism and praise, he’s a grown man. Stupid moves are allowed to be questioned. You’re right, Mahle and Disco are both decent number 5 starters. Neither are the problem, the problem is that they have 2 number 5 starters. The starting rotation has been less of a problem than the hitting, the bullpen or Bell’s managing.
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#18
(07-15-2019, 03:07 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote:  You’re right, Mahle and Disco are both decent number 5 starters. Neither are the problem, the problem is that they have 2 number 5 starters. 


Mahl and DeSclafani are both more like #3 or #4 starters.

On the 30 MLB teams there are only 128 pitchers with at least 7 starts and 60 innings pitched.  Mahle ranks 97th in ERA and DeSclafani is 75th.


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#19
IMO, stand pat this year, keep learning how to string wins together, extend Puig, who has become the heart and soul of the team, and make a big run next year.

And, for crying out loud, is there a Catcher who can hit anywhere in the organization?
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