Dems win VA and NJ Gubernatorial Races

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(11-08-2017, 10:43 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: Not a member, no party membership in Virginia. I don't deny I am a liberal, though, and for the most part the Democractic candidates represent my values more than the Republican candidates. I dislike the party structure we have here and how the party acts as an elitist club (I could tell stories about this from this most recent election cycle, but that would get me a bit more fired up than I need to be this morning) but if you're going to cause change, you have to work with what you're given.

I'm not familiar with Virginia state politics so maybe for you this is a good thing.  I can tell you that our state legislature needs a lot fewer Dems.  Them having a super majority has fuqed this state up big time.  I'm hoping the recent 12 cent gas tax that they just rammed up our ass comes back to bite them in theirs.  They're spending money on bullshit like there's an endless supply of it.  Don't even get me started on the soft as Sponge Bob crime bills that have passed of late.

(11-08-2017, 10:47 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: Virginia is still a very purple state, this was a reaction to Trump, plain and simple. Our turnout, on average across the state, was 13% higher than 2013, which is the most recent comparable year. Interesting note, Charlottesville saw a bump of 31% from 2013. As one Richmond NPR reporter put it, that's what happens when Nazis come to town.

I'm going to have to disagree with you there, I don't really consider VA a swing state anymore.  I don't see it going blue in a national election anytime soon.  Governor could definitely go blue, with the right candidate.  The NJ win for the Dems means absolutely nothing though, there was zero chance anyone with a D by their name was losing that election.

[Belsnickel]

(11-09-2017, 12:39 AM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: I'm not familiar with Virginia state politics so maybe for you this is a good thing.  I can tell you that our state legislature needs a lot fewer Dems.  Them having a super majority has fuqed this state up big time.  I'm hoping the recent 12 cent gas tax that they just rammed up our ass comes back to bite them in theirs.  They're spending money on bullshit like there's an endless supply of it.  Don't even get me started on the soft as Sponge Bob crime bills that have passed of late.

Well, our elected officials run with a D or an R. Our legislature is usually pretty conservative, though. It's a pro and con thing. There are things we have done well because of a conservative legislature, but there are things we do poorly as well. I know I harp on it a lot, but we compensate our public employees worse than any other state. That has taken a toll on our administrative infrastructure. We can't keep state troopers, they train, take their stretch of highway, make nice with the locals, and then get a better paying job working for the municipality because they pay better than the state does. We can conservative legislatures for decades to thank for this.

So it's a give and take.

(11-09-2017, 12:39 AM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: I'm going to have to disagree with you there, I don't really consider VA a swing state anymore.  I don't see it going blue in a national election anytime soon.  Governor could definitely go blue, with the right candidate.  The NJ win for the Dems means absolutely nothing though, there was zero chance anyone with a D by their name was losing that election.

I think a lot of people don't realize that the Democrats that win here are usually more moderate. McAuliffe squeaked out a win, and he was the most liberal Democrat in recent history that has won the office. Had Trump not fired up the liberal base, and had Gillespie not embraced some of the Trump rhetoric, this would have been closer.

On a cold, rainy Tuesday, the Democrats managed to get people motivated to vote. Democrats are notoriously the ones that tend to stay home in bad weather. This wasn't a shift in the ideology in the state as much as it was a situational victory when you start looking at the local results and how everything played out. Being a bit of a data nerd, I have been spending way more time than I should looking at the breakdowns in different races, demographics, etc.

Now, NoVA does play a role in this, that can't be denied. NoVA has become more blue in the past couple of decades and their population has increased. So there is a shift occurring, there, but this result was definitely a lot more situational than anything else.