Did You Know... (AJ Green)

[fredtoast]

(05-29-2020, 01:39 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote:   Where did I say anywhere that draft picks or free agents always work out? 

The same place you said it was a "no brainer" to trade a productive WR for draft picks and cap space.

[Wes Mantooth]

(05-29-2020, 02:02 PM)fredtoast Wrote: The same place you said it was a "no brainer" to trade a productive WR for draft picks and cap space.

Teams trade "productive" players all of the time for draft picks and to free up space. Some also trade "productive" players in the last year of their deal.

Just answer this question honestly, and tell me which option you would personally choose.

Which scenario sounds best to you:

A: AJ walks after the season. We get no compensation.

B: We extend a 33 yr old AJ Green until 2022 or 2023 @ 13-16 mil per seaon.

C: We acquire a 1st or 2nd round pick AJ for and invest 13-16 mil elswhere.

Please answer.

[*Synric*]

(05-29-2020, 02:10 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Teams trade "productive" players all of the time for draft picks and to free up space. Some also trade "productive" players in the last year of their deal.

Just answer this question honestly, and tell me which option you would personally choose.

Which scenario sounds best to you:

A: AJ walks after the season. We get no compensation.

B: We extend a 33 yr old AJ Green until 2022 or 2023 @ 13-16 mil per seaon.

C: We acquire a 1st or 2nd round pick AJ for and invest 13-16 mil elswhere.

Please answer.

Why would a team give up a first or second round pick for a "older, expensive, injury prone" WR?

The same reason a team would give up a high draft pick is the same reason you can argue the Bengals should resign him. AJ Green is one of the better players in the league.

[Circleville Guy]

(05-29-2020, 01:39 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I don't see AJ getting anything besides an incentive laden contract. He has missed 24 straight frickin' games man.

3 year 42 million dollar contract but incentive laden is about where I would offer if he is healthy. If he misses significant time
still he should lose a lot of money from his contract. Just the way it is. You never know, he might come back fresh as ever 
essentially having 2 years off.

You’re saying 14 mil a year if he’s healthy. I still believe he will hold out for guaranteed money. I thought earlier you were saying to extend him now? What’s to determine the “if he’s healthy” without watching him play multiple games?

[Circleville Guy]

I don’t think anyone has ever answered with a yes or a no when I’ve asked this question. Would you want to bring in other players through free agency in the same Scenario that you have with AJ? You have a huge one year deal or a 3 year, 14 million a year deal on a very good player that’s middle past middle aged for a football receiver and that hasn’t played for a year and a half because of injuries? Would it have been better to try to grab that type of free agent vs the youth that they brought in this year? It sounds like a terrible idea when you take out the personal part of it being AJ Green.

[fredtoast]

(05-29-2020, 02:10 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Teams trade "productive" players all of the time for draft picks and to free up space. Some also trade "productive" players in the last year of their deal.

Just answer this question honestly, and tell me which option you would personally choose.

Which scenario sounds best to you:

A: AJ walks after the season. We get no compensation.

B: We extend a 33 yr old AJ Green until 2022 or 2023 @ 13-16 mil per seaon.

C: We acquire a 1st or 2nd round pick AJ for and invest 13-16 mil elswhere.

Please answer.

My problem with Green is that I don't know if he is still able to play at a high level.

If he comes back and plays at a high level then I would rather extend him than gamble on another first round picks like Ross, Price, or Ogbuehi.  

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-29-2020, 03:06 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: You’re saying 14 mil a year if he’s healthy. I still believe he will hold out for guaranteed money. I thought earlier you were saying to extend him now? What’s to determine the “if he’s healthy” without watching him play multiple games?

Well when I say extend him now I mean before the season after the coaches have seen AJ practice.

I don't know all the particulars but if AJ starts the season and plays multiple games does that mean the tag is locked in?

[Wes Mantooth]

(05-29-2020, 02:38 PM)Synric Wrote: 1.) Why would a team give up a first or second round pick for a "older, expensive, injury prone" WR?

2.) The same reason a team would give up a high draft pick is the same reason you can argue the Bengals should resign him. AJ Green is one of the better players in the league.

1.) Do I really need to answer this?  The answer is supply and demand.  And you see it every year at the trade deadline.

A team that feels it has a true chance at contending will make bold moves when they feel needed.  If there's a player who they feel like will put them over the top then it's often considerd worth trying.  If they have a guy go down to injury there aren't many available guys to bring in.  There's no Free Agency in November. There's no draft in the middle of the season.  They can't go down to Wide Receiver tree and pluck off a starter.

This is why you see a guy like Mohomed Sanu go for a 2nd rounder in the middle of the year.  You have a team desperate for help, while in the middle of contention.  With limited options they'll overpay.

2.) Entirely different situations.

The team trading for AJ Green is sacrficing a pick to try to win now.  The dollars spent is a partial season's salary.  If AJ Green were to be traded in week 10 then he would essentially be a 7 million dollar rental.

Just because a guy has trade value in a sellers market doesn't mean by comparison he should be worthy of a muti-year deal with 25+ mil in guarantees. 

[Wes Mantooth]

(05-29-2020, 03:46 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I don't know all the particulars but if AJ starts the season and plays multiple games does that mean the tag is locked in?

Pretty sure the tag locks in on July 15th.

[Essex Johnson]

(05-29-2020, 01:40 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Yeah, AJ has been as good as anybody when healthy pretty much and I would argue with lesser QB play than Julio.

I give an Ryan  edge over Dalton but I way AJ had less to work with at WR/TE than Julio has.. 

[Whatever]

(05-29-2020, 02:02 PM)fredtoast Wrote: The same place you said it was a "no brainer" to trade a productive WR for draft picks and cap space.

AJ hasn't been productive for a season and a half, though.

Another issue is that you're projecting AJ's production based on what he has done almost entirely in Jay Gruden's offense with Andy Dalton at QB.  The reasons why resigning your veteran WR would be safer than bringing in an outside FA are you've seen how productive he is in your system and he already has chemistry with your QB.  AJ has never played a snap in Zac's offense or a down with Burrow.  He's no safer or riskier to maintain his level of play than the next guy, presuming good health.  However, he's injury prone and hasn't played in a year and half.  

[fredtoast]

(05-29-2020, 05:41 PM)Whatever Wrote: AJ hasn't been productive for a season and a half, though.

I know.

But Mantooth's hypothetical has him playing at a high level in 2020.  So that is what I was basing my opinion on.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(05-29-2020, 01:40 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Yeah, AJ has been as good as anybody when healthy pretty much and I would argue with lesser QB play than Julio.

Pretty easy argument to make. Julio has Ryan with a career rating of 94.6 (Dalton’s is 87.5) has won an MVP, and went to the Super Bowl.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(05-29-2020, 03:18 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: I don’t think anyone has ever answered with a yes or a no when I’ve asked this question. Would you want to bring in other players through free agency in the same Scenario that you have with AJ? You have a huge one year deal or a 3 year, 14 million a year deal on a very good player that’s middle past middle aged for a football receiver and that hasn’t played for a year and a half because of injuries? Would it have been better to try to grab that type of free agent vs the youth that they brought in this year? It sounds like a terrible idea when you take out the personal part of it being AJ Green.

So you think AJ would still be looking for work right now had we not tagged him? Because I pretty much guarantee he would have been snatched up early on in FA. He’s worth the gamble.

[Essex Johnson]

(05-29-2020, 08:13 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Pretty easy argument to make. Julio has Ryan with a career rating of 94.6 (Dalton’s is 87.5) has won an MVP, and went to the Super Bowl.

Julio and Ryan has played with a better WR/TE core than AJ and Dalton which narrows that difference.. Matt on average has less playoff appearances than Andy.. still a losing record in playoffs and was the 3rd pick overall in the draft.. I agree Ryan has had a better career but the question is really how greatly has his career been better than Andy.. since  he had a better supporting cast and as the 3rd overall pick compared to 2nd round pick in Andy outside of the S.B. run is there that much difference between the two when you compare their career and record?? I don;t think so...

[Nicomo Cosca]

(05-29-2020, 08:32 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Julio and Ryan has played with a better WR/TE core than AJ and Dalton which narrows that difference.. Matt on average has less playoff appearances than Andy.. still a losing record in playoffs and was the 3rd pick overall in the draft.. I agree Ryan has had a better career but the question is really how greatly has his career been better than Andy.. since  he had a better supporting cast and as the 3rd overall pick compared to 2nd round pick in Andy outside of the S.B. run is there that much difference between the two when you compare their career and record?? I don;t think so...

This is a lot of words to say you agree with me and Nate that Julio has had the better QB so far...

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-29-2020, 08:13 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Pretty easy argument to make. Julio has Ryan with a career rating of 94.6 (Dalton’s is 87.5) has won an MVP, and went to the Super Bowl.

Feel the same, definitely helps having an accurate QB. Don't know how many times AJ has had to make amazing grabs.

(05-29-2020, 08:17 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: So you think AJ would still be looking for work right now had we not tagged him? Because I pretty much guarantee he would have been snatched up early on in FA. He’s worth the gamble.

Very early, it was the right move to tag him and try to work on a deal. Especially after Burrow said he wanted him here.

[Whatever]

(05-29-2020, 08:17 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: So you think AJ would still be looking for work right now had we not tagged him? Because I pretty much guarantee he would have been snatched up early on in FA. He’s worth the gamble.

It depends.  Jadaveon Clowney is still out there looking for work.  If AJ were willing to take a cheap one year prove it deal, he would probably have been signed.  Nobody is giving him this fat multi-year deal he wants, though, and nobody else is gonna pay him $18 mil for 2020, though.  

That's the thing about gambling.  It's risk vs reward.  If AJ were willing to take a deal that was like $6-7 mil base and goes up to $10 mil with incentives, sure, it's worth the risk.  However, $18 mil is the 4th highest paid WR in the league by yearly average.  Statistically, 100 catches, 1200 yards, and 9 TD's would rank him 4th in all 3 categories.  What are the chances he hits those numbers?  Even if we're talking prime health, which we aren't, he has never had a 100 catch season.  He's had 2 over 90, but none since '13.  He's had 3 1200+ yard seasons, the last of which was '15.  He's also had 3 9+ TD seasons, the last of which was also in '15.  The Bengals will be lucky if he plays up to the FT.  There's very little reason to think he exceeds that level of play and very much reason believe he falls well short due to decline and/or injury.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(05-29-2020, 09:50 PM)Whatever Wrote: It depends.  Jadaveon Clowney is still out there looking for work.  If AJ were willing to take a cheap one year prove it deal, he would probably have been signed.  Nobody is giving him this fat multi-year deal he wants, though, and nobody else is gonna pay him $18 mil for 2020, though.  

That's the thing about gambling.  It's risk vs reward.  If AJ were willing to take a deal that was like $6-7 mil base and goes up to $10 mil with incentives, sure, it's worth the risk.  However, $18 mil is the 4th highest paid WR in the league by yearly average.  Statistically, 100 catches, 1200 yards, and 9 TD's would rank him 4th in all 3 categories.  What are the chances he hits those numbers?  Even if we're talking prime health, which we aren't, he has never had a 100 catch season.  He's had 2 over 90, but none since '13.  He's had 3 1200+ yard seasons, the last of which was '15.  He's also had 3 9+ TD seasons, the last of which was also in '15.  The Bengals will be lucky if he plays up to the FT.  There's very little reason to think he exceeds that level of play and very much reason believe he falls well short due to decline and/or injury.

Clowney has already received at least one offer though. He chose not to take it.

[Whatever]

(05-29-2020, 03:18 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: I don’t think anyone has ever answered with a yes or a no when I’ve asked this question. Would you want to bring in other players through free agency in the same Scenario that you have with AJ?  You have a huge one year deal or a 3 year, 14 million a year deal on a very good player that’s middle past middle aged for a football receiver and that hasn’t played for a year and a half because of injuries? Would it have been better to try to grab that type of free agent vs the youth that they brought in this year? It sounds like a terrible idea when you take out the personal part of it being AJ Green.

Yup.

Here's an even better one.  Would anyone here offer Dez Bryant a 1 year $18 mil deal?