Economy Under Trump

[BFritz21]

You don't hear much about the good parts of Trump's term so far because the liberal media looks for his flaws to ***** about and get more clicks and the Democrats just find things to ***** about because, well, that's what Democrats do.

One of the good things you don't hear about is how well the economy is doing because people are too concerned with finding reasons to ***** about bathroom usage and things like that.

I decided to take a look at the numbers and see how well things are actually going.

Quote:1. Jobs
It's hard to find fault with the latest jobs numbers. The unemployment rate is 4.3%, a 16-year low. The economy has added more than 1 million jobs since Trump took office.
On the other hand, wage growth has yet to really pick up. Employers still don't feel pressure to offer big salaries to attract the workers they need. Average hourly earnings have increased only 2.5% over the past 12 months. The Federal Reserve would rather see 3% to 3.5%.



Still, because inflation is low, those wage gains are helping many Americans.

Businesses are hiring more because they were/are confident about the economy under Trump and they know that his policies will only help build and sustain the economy.

Quote:2. Housing prices
They're red hot.
The average price for an existing home in June was a record $263,800, or 6.5% higher than a year ago. June was the 64th consecutive month of gains compared with a year earlier.



And borrowing money to buy a house remains relatively affordable, despite recent interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The average rate for a 30-year mortgage is just 3.93%, according to Freddie Mac, down from 4.02% three months ago.

Prices are above where they were even before the recession, which means the market is stronger.

Borrowing money and building houses helps more than just the construction companies, furniture companies, etc., because borrowing money to buy houses also keeps money circulating and helps make banks stronger.

Quote:3. Lending
Consumers aren't borrowing just to buy homes. They're taking on debt for cars and using credit cards for lots of other things.
Americans had $3.843 trillion in loans outstanding in May, up from $3.766 trillion at the end of last year, according to the Fed.
And businesses are borrowing more, reversing a trend from earlier this year. That could be a good sign for Trump and the economy. Consumers can't prop up the economy alone: Companies need to pull their weight and invest.

People aren't scared to take out loans and spend now, which is what helped cause the recession because people think bad times are coming and stop spending, and then companies have less money to keep people employed and keep buying/selling/producing products.

Quote:4. Consumer spending
Big stores including Macy's (M), Kohl's (KSS) and J.C. Penney (JCP) report earnings this week, and the results could be lousy.
The dominance of Amazon (AMZN, Tech30) is one reason. But Americans may also be spending less on clothes, toys and other smaller purchases -- even though they're taking out more loans.
Retail sales fell 0.2% in June. Economists were expecting a slight increase. And overall consumer spending was up just 0.1% in June.
Spending has increased 2.8% over the past 12 months, a bit below the 3% pace many experts feel is necessary to keep the economy on track.

Can't blame him too much for that because people are lazy and would rather just order from their phones or computers. I asked my brother-in-law and sister to order me batteries and they ordered them off Amazon! I was like "you're too lazy to walk into a drug store or gas station on your way home from work?! We have a gas station less than a hundred yards from the house!"

Quote:5. Trade
Trump wants more consumers -- in the United States and around the globe -- to buy American. And it looks like that's starting to happen.
The trade deficit fell slightly in June from three months ago, to $43.6 billion. That's the lowest since just before the election.
America's suddenly vibrant oil industry is a big reason the balance is shifting. Thanks to technologies like fracking, the United States exported more crude in June and imported less.
Exports to Canada and Mexico rose in June, too, a possible sign that Trump's tough talk is working with America's two big North American trading partners.
China is still a sore spot. The U.S. trade deficit with China is up more than 6% this year.

I love that because, if we build things here and import less, we'll become a lot less dependent and a lot more powerful. Cheap labor in China is a tough one to beat, but, my thing is, if all the companies just started building things here, even if it cost more, then everyone would have more money to buy and it would offset the cost because you could raise prices.

Quote:6. Stocks
An undeniable win for the president. Fears of a market collapse under Trump have proved to be misguided.
The Dow keeps hitting records and is up 12% this year.



And the blue chips are lagging. The Nasdaq has surged nearly 20% thanks to big gains in Amazon, Apple (AAPL, Tech30), Google owner Alphabet (GOOGL, Tech30) and Facebook (FB, Tech30).
For now, Wall Street is willing to ignore the turmoil in the Trump administration. Investors are hoping for eventual changes to the tax code and deregulation of the financial industry.
Strong earnings don't hurt, either. Profits for the companies in the S&P 500 are up more than 10% from a year ago.

Everyone focuses on the bad because controversy gets clicks, but things are going pretty well under Trump.

Am I wrong?

[Belsnickel]

None of this is really attributable to Trump. One, this a continuation of a multi-year trend. Two, presidents have little to nothing to do with most of these things. I don't give credit or blame to presidents for economic things unless they sign something that makes a substantial impact. Trump has not done this.

[Johnny Cupcakes]

If it looks like this in year 4, I'll take notice, but most of this stuff is just the positive effects of the Barack Obama presidency, and you're unwittingly giving him praise. Presidents have little to do with numbers like this in their first year.

[*bfine32*]

(10-11-2017, 09:04 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: None of this is really attributable to Trump. One, this a continuation of a multi-year trend. Two, presidents have little to nothing to do with most of these things. I don't give credit or blame to presidents for economic things unless they sign something that makes a substantial impact. Trump has not done this.

Wasn't pulling us out of the Trans-pacific Partnership viewed a a good economic move for American jobs? 

[BFritz21]

(10-11-2017, 09:04 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: None of this is really attributable to Trump. One, this a continuation of a multi-year trend. Two, presidents have little to nothing to do with most of these things. I don't give credit or blame to presidents for economic things unless they sign something that makes a substantial impact. Trump has not done this.

Policies and taxes are examples of things a president can do.  There's ways he can give incentives to hiring people and spending money, as well as other things that it mentioned, like promoting buying American.  

Even one of those examples can have a trickle-down impact and improve the rest.

I think it's also just confidence that Trump knows what he's doing business-wise and won't screw over business owners and bosses, so they see the potential in growth and reasons to hire.

[*Nately120*]

I don't understand why people even care about the president creating jobs or fixing the economy because only lazy people are unemployed or poor.

Work harder and you don't need to worry about the president bailing you out.

[Dill]

(10-11-2017, 09:23 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Policies and taxes are examples of things a president can do.  There's ways he can give incentives to hiring people and spending money, as well as other things that it mentioned, like promoting buying American.  

Even one of those examples can have a trickle-down impact and improve the rest.

I think it's also just confidence that Trump knows what he's doing business-wise and won't screw over business owners and bosses, so they see the potential in growth and reasons to hire.

????

So far as I can tell, you attribute positive signs in the economy to "what Trump wants," not anything he has actually done or long-term trends.

What sort of specific incentives can Trump give businesses to hire people and spend money in the US?

He wants the biggest tax cuts in history, mostly for the richest 5%, but why would that incline businesses to spend in the US?

[Belsnickel]

(10-11-2017, 09:11 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Wasn't pulling us out of the Trans-pacific Partnership viewed a a good economic move for American jobs? 

He didn't pull us out, we were never in it. It never passed Congress. Also, its economic impact is debated.

(10-11-2017, 09:23 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Policies and taxes are examples of things a president can do.  There's ways he can give incentives to hiring people and spending money, as well as other things that it mentioned, like promoting buying American.  

Even one of those examples can have a trickle-down impact and improve the rest.

I think it's also just confidence that Trump knows what he's doing business-wise and won't screw over business owners and bosses, so they see the potential in growth and reasons to hire.

And once he enacts policies or signs laws to affect the economy in that way, then we can discuss that economic impact. As of yet, nothing really of note with fiscal or monetary policy. The confidence in Trump factor would be a more likely answer we're these not just a continuation of economic trends that have been occurring for a while.

[*bfine32*]

(10-11-2017, 09:44 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: He didn't pull us out, we were never in it. It never passed Congress. Also, its economic impact is debated.

I thought we signed an agreement to participate in 2016. 



Every economic impact is debated; however, I do believe the majority sided with cutting jobs, helping rich. 


But I understand your not wanting to give him any credit, 

[Yojimbo]

I don’t see the Dow at record highs and home prices at record highs, while debt is record high and wages are stagnant, as positive things. It’s just another bubble that’s really close to popping.

[Belsnickel]

(10-11-2017, 09:50 PM)bfine32 Wrote: I thought we signed an agreement to participate in 2016. 



Every economic impact is debated; however, I do believe the majority sided with cutting jobs, helping rich. 


But I understand your not wanting to give him any credit, 

The agreement had to be ratified in order for us to officially be in, Congress never ratified as McConnell never brought it to a vote.

As for impacts, I don't know if it is a majority that said that. I have read quite a few opinions on both sides. I personally think that it would have had a negative impact on workers in the US, but I know economists are split.

[Benton]

The first year of a president is pretty well the last year of the last.

So... kudos Obama.

Really, trump hasn’t done much yet except golf and complain. He will have his chance, and an opportunity to negotiate policy. But so far he’s just tweeting and waiting for congress to do something.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(10-12-2017, 02:37 AM)Benton Wrote: The first year of a president is pretty well the last year of the last.

So... kudos Obama.

Really, trump hasn’t done much yet except golf and complain. He will have his chance, and an opportunity to negotiate policy. But so far he’s just tweeting and waiting for congress to do something.

Yeah, I am not sure Trump has been involved with anywhere close to the majority of the benefits the market has seen so far. That said, all we heard all last year on the campaign trail was how the economy would crash under Trump, the markets would never recover, he would doom us all, etc. Election night the markets even took a big drop because of all that talk when it looked like Trump might actually win.

I mean... I guess you shouldn't be expected to praise someone for not F'ing something up, lol. That said, it's been way way better than the second Great Depression people were talking about. So at least that absurd false hyperbole needs to be acknowledged.

[ballsofsteel]

All those charts and stats don't mean shit. When I look at my pay stub and see that I didn't have as much in taxes taken out then I'll be impressed. Talking about doing tax cuts and actually doing them are two different things. Do your taxes in January and see if your any better off. Trump wants to give the middle class a five dollar tax cut so he can get the inheritance tax abolished so he can save his kids hundreds of millions of dollars. Just tell it like it really is. BTW. that tax does seem wrong. wasn't that money already taxed once? Its like buying a used car.

[GMDino]

I'm not sure Trump understands anything let alone can take credit for anything.

http://crooksandliars.com/2017/10/trump-says-stock-market-bump-wiping-out

[/url]

Quote:Trump Says Stock Market Bump Is Wiping Out National Debt


I'm not going to try and explain this. I'm not going to try and translate it. I'll just leave it here and let you try and figure it out.

This was right at the top of Trump's strokefest interview with Sean Hannity tonight. I don't really know what to say other than...WTF. Also, this comes from a guy who proudly calls himself the "King of Debt." Just sayin'.

Quote:"The country -- we took it over and owed over 20 trillion. As you know, over the last eight years, they borrowed more than it did in the whole history of our country. So they borrowed more than $10 trillion, right? And yet, we picked up 5.2 trillion just in the stock market."
"Possibly picked up the whole thing in terms of the first nine months, in terms of value. So you could say, in one sense, we're really increasing values. And maybe in a sense we're reducing debt. But I'm very honored by it."

That's not how it works. That's not how any of this works.

Update: Stephanie Ruhle tried to figure it out too, but now she's just trying to explain it. Or chastise him.

Quote:[url=https://twitter.com/SRuhle] Follow
Stephanie Ruhle 

@SRuhle
Dear @realDonaldTrump - this is ABSOLUTELY false. It makes no sense. https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/918296242660302848 …
10:46 PM - Oct 11, 2017

[Yojimbo]

(10-12-2017, 08:59 AM)GMDino Wrote: I'm not sure Trump understands anything let alone can take credit for anything.

http://crooksandliars.com/2017/10/trump-says-stock-market-bump-wiping-out

[url=http://crooksandliars.com/2017/10/trump-says-stock-market-bump-wiping-out][/url]

How much have spent in Afghanistan and Iraq alone? Last number I read was $11 trillion. How much education, healthcare, infrastructure and housing could we have done in this country for that amount?

[*jason*]

He seems to be looking into "creating" a lot of military jobs.

[Benton]

(10-12-2017, 03:28 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Yeah, I am not sure Trump has been involved with anywhere close to the majority of the benefits the market has seen so far. That said, all we heard all last year on the campaign trail was how the economy would crash under Trump, the markets would never recover, he would doom us all, etc. Election night the markets even took a big drop because of all that talk when it looked like Trump might actually win.

I mean... I guess you shouldn't be expected to praise someone for not F'ing something up, lol. That said, it's been way way better than the second Great Depression people were talking about. So at least that absurd false hyperbole needs to be acknowledged.

Oh, I expect there to be a turn. Economists were predicting — regardless of who was elected — that we'd be hitting a downturn soon. It's just the ups and downs of the market. But Trump is a 'wide open throttle' guy on the economy, and that tends to lead to bigger peaks and lower valleys. So we will probably hit some recent highs as far as investing is concerned, but it will lead to some significant lows eventually. 

It's like the Carrier deal. Great for the company, great for the stockholders, but at the end of the day, it did little to nothing to improve the economy. 

[*Nately120*]

(10-12-2017, 11:43 AM)Yojimbo Wrote:


How much have spent in Afghanistan and Iraq alone? Last number I read was $11 trillion. How much education, healthcare, infrastructure and housing could we have done in this country for that amount?

What good is education and healthcare when Muslims are running wild in this country killing all of us?  Well, actually healthcare might come in handy then, but you get my point.  Jingoism never fails.

[BengalHawk62]

Hey look!  The sun came up today.  Thank God Trump is in there to make sure that happens each and every day.