Forget Politics, are we heading for a recession

[Luvnit2]

https://www.foxnews.com/media/kevin-oleary-warns-chaos-begin-us-economy-wake-smell-roses

Kevin Oleary of Shark Tank fame is predicting major chaos due to a number of factors. I am a former business owner and know a lot of current business owners. The spike in interest rates is a major concern for them to grow or borrow money for needed repairs or new equipment. Small business owners represent 60% of our economy providing jobs and stability to the workforce.

This is a very good read.

I keep hearing we are headed for a soft landing, but if small commercial lending banks go belly up, that is a sign of turbulence to come in the financial sector. I also noticed the price of diesel fuel has gone up almost .40 a gallon since last month. Gasoline prices are starting to rise

again.https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_m.htm

The spike in diesel is critical. Restaurants, grocery stores and every business that depends on trucking to get their product will be forced to pass on a portion of these costs to consumers fueling higher inflation.

You have to manually insert the link above, but based on it, I am very concerned for the middle class and the lower income citizens who get impacted by these inflationary increases. I am lucky and inflation while very high does not cause me hardship. I spent 50 years working to be ready for these spikes.

Do you think we are heading for a recession. What do you hear from relatives, friends, small business owners about their ability to absorb inflation?

Are we heading for a recession?

[NATI BENGALS]

I think real estate will be responsible for the next economic catastrophe. Giant empty office buildings. Crazy high rent and home prices. I’ve been hearing for awhile about a major commercial real estate problem brewing.

We had the Dodd Frank act after the 2008 collapse. Regulations were put in place to prevent a future crisis. Trump rolled back some of those regulations that were put in place in 2018 and 5 years later here we are with another bank crisis bubbling… 4 bank failures in 2023.

We also had an economy doing great. Then decided to cut taxes for the rich while keeping interests rates incredibly low. And for some reason we are surprised it caught up to us.

[Goalpost]

Obviously inflation has been the big issue. The Fed has tamed it but at the expense of higher rates which has now weakened the consumer. I knew we were cursed awhile back. We were stuck between a rock and a hard place.

[JustWinBaby]

(09-02-2023, 12:56 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: We had the Dodd Frank act after the 2008 collapse. Regulations were put in place to prevent a future crisis. Trump rolled back some of those regulations that were put in place in 2018 and 5 years later here we are with another bank crisis bubbling… 4 bank failures in 2023.

The great irony is that Barney Frank was on the Board of one of those failed banks...

The banks were done in by interest rates rising too fast too quickly, causing an excessive imbalance between assets & liabilities.  I doubt Dodd-Frank then or now would have made any difference.

I don't know all the minutia if Dodd-Frank had an impact to a degree, but inverted yield curves being a real challenge for banks is a long-established and well known reality.

[GreenDragon]

(09-02-2023, 12:09 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: https://www.foxnews.com/media/kevin-oleary-warns-chaos-begin-us-economy-wake-smell-roses

Kevin Oleary of Shark Tank fame is predicting major chaos due to a number of factors. I am a former business owner and know a lot of current business owners. The spike in interest rates is a major concern for them to grow or borrow money for needed repairs or new equipment. Small business owners represent 60% of our economy providing jobs and stability to the workforce.

This is a very good read.

I keep hearing we are headed for a soft landing, but if small commercial lending banks go belly up, that is a sign of turbulence to come in the financial sector. I also noticed the price of diesel fuel has gone up almost .40 a gallon since last month. Gasoline prices are starting to rise

again.https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_m.htm

The spike in diesel is critical. Restaurants, grocery stores and every business that depends on trucking to get their product will be forced to pass on a portion of these costs to consumers fueling higher inflation.

You have to manually insert the link above, but based on it, I am very concerned for the middle class and the lower income citizens who get impacted by these inflationary increases. I am lucky and inflation while very high does not cause me hardship. I spent 50 years working to be ready for these spikes.

Do you think we are heading for a recession. What do you hear from relatives, friends, small business owners about their ability to absorb inflation?

Are we heading for a recession?

Any sources other than Fox News? 

[Mike M (the other one)]

(09-03-2023, 01:10 AM)GreenDragon Wrote: Any sources other than Fox News? 

take your pick, some are reporting a mild recession now or "soft landing" but the one sign that usually predicts it is still there.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/07/24/us-likely-headed-for-a-recession-in-end-2023-or-early-2024-jpmorgan.html#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20is%20likely%20headed,the%20“primary%20driving%20force.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/are-we-in-a-recession-2023-economy-federal-reserve-interest-rates-rcna67826

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-still-headed-for-recession-stock-market-crash-2023-8

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fed-staff-expects-banking-crisis-cause-recession-year/story?id=98540661

[masonbengals fan]

(09-02-2023, 12:56 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: I think real estate will be responsible for the next economic catastrophe. Giant empty office buildings. Crazy high rent and home prices. I’ve been hearing for awhile about a major commercial real estate problem brewing.

We had the Dodd Frank act after the 2008 collapse. Regulations were put in place to prevent a future crisis. Trump rolled back some of those regulations that were put in place in 2018 and 5 years later here we are with another bank crisis bubbling… 4 bank failures in 2023.

We also had an economy doing great. Then decided to cut taxes for the rich while keeping interests rates incredibly low. And for some reason we are surprised it caught up to us.

At the time I was still working, myself & everyone I worked with got a tax cut. 

[GMDino]

(09-03-2023, 12:17 PM)masonbengals fan Wrote: At the time I was still working, myself & everyone I worked with got a tax cut. 

Aye.  Those expire unless you make above a certain amount.  The tax cuts for the top percenters was made permanent.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-era-tax-cuts-set-160750197.html#:~:text=When%202025%20draws%20to%20a,revert%20to%20pre%2DTCJA%20levels.

It was designed to end when 1135809 thought he would be ending his second term and so he couldn't be blamed for it.

[masonbengals fan]

From what I understand the only permanent tax cuts were corporate tax rates.

All other tax rates are restored to prior tax schedule levels.

Upon further reading. The only reason the personal tax cuts are not permanent is because not one democrat voted for them, so the only way to get them done was through budget reconciliation which has an expiration date.

Guess who will vote against it in 2025. The same people as before would be my guess.

I'm certainly no expert & far from rich, but I did receive a tax cut.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(09-03-2023, 03:08 PM)masonbengals fan Wrote: From what I understand the only permanent tax cuts were corporate tax rates.

All other tax rates are restored to prior tax schedule levels.

Upon further reading. The only reason the personal tax cuts are not permanent is because not one democrat voted for them, so the only way to get them done was through budget reconciliation which has an expiration date.

Guess who will vote against it in 2025. The same people as before would be my guess.

I'm certainly no expert & far from rich, but I did receive a tax cut.

Depends if the POTUS is an R or a D.


If a D, they will likely vote for it this time to make it permanent like they did with Bush's cuts. 
If an R, they will fight it tooth and nail.

It's all about getting the credit for "helping".

[NATI BENGALS]

(09-03-2023, 03:08 PM)masonbengals fan Wrote: From what I understand the only permanent tax cuts were corporate tax rates.

All other tax rates are restored to prior tax schedule levels.

Upon further reading. The only reason the personal tax cuts are not permanent is because not one democrat voted for them, so the only way to get them done was through budget reconciliation which has an expiration date.

Guess who will vote against it in 2025. The same people as before would be my guess.

I'm certainly no expert & far from rich, but I did receive a tax cut.

How can they make the corporate tax cuts permanent. But blame the dems for the personal tax cuts not being permanent. Why didn't they just make them permanent like they did the corporate ones?

[masonbengals fan]

(09-03-2023, 04:10 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: How can they make the corporate tax cuts permanent. But blame the dems for the personal tax cuts not being permanent. Why didn't they just make them permanent like they did the corporate ones?

 Can't remember the media spin at the time but I found this explanation. 

 Republicans Explain Why They Want Permanent Tax Cuts For Corporations But Not People | HuffPost Latest News

[GMDino]

(09-03-2023, 04:48 PM)masonbengals fan Wrote:  Can't remember the media spin at the time but I found this explanation. 

 Republicans Explain Why They Want Permanent Tax Cuts For Corporations But Not People | HuffPost Latest News

They still think it will trickle down.  They'll think that until the end of time and it never happens.

Oh, they said a bunch of other stuff...but that's the bottom line.

[Bengalion]

Not sure the label matters much. We’re in the midst of one of the worst economic situations of our lifetime. The biggest transfer of wealth from middle and lower class to the upper class. The biggest attack on small businesses through rampant inflation and jacked interest rates which allow the biggest corporations to gobble up everything in sight while small businesses are just holding on with little opportunity to expand. High real estate prices and cost of living through the roof. Small business owners are the heart of this country, cut the damn taxes and make it easy to create jobs and open a business.

[samhain]

(09-03-2023, 06:13 PM)Bengalion Wrote: Not sure the label matters much. We’re in the midst of one of the worst economic situations of our lifetime. The biggest transfer of wealth from middle and lower class to the upper class. The biggest attack on small businesses through rampant inflation and jacked interest rates which allow the biggest corporations to gobble up everything in sight while small businesses are just holding on with little opportunity to expand. High real estate prices and cost of living through the roof. Small business owners are the heart of this country, cut the damn taxes and make it easy to create jobs and open a business.

I mostly agree.  Maybe fully.  

I'm far from a Trump supporter or a conservative, but Trump should have been a real warning to the upper class in this country.  They want business as usual, ie making shitloads of cash while paying people down the pyramid as little as possible.  It works to an extent, but they continued to take and take and take year after year and decade after decade.  They sent jobs overseas to get out of paying decent wages here, benefitting from globalism while the rest of us suffered from it.  Benefits decreased until they became next to nothing compared to what they were in the 70's.  

Trump is A problem, but he's never been THE problem.  He's actually a sign that democracy is working and that when the American people become disaffected enough, they have the power to upset the entrenched power structure.  He never gets elected in a country where people have the spare cash to spend on distractions and hobbies.  When they don't, political propaganda becomes more enticing and blaming large groups of ethnicities, religions, and mainly foreigners becomes a fun hobby.  

It would be super cool if people focused their anger on getting better wages for working people, better funded local governments, and better access to affordable healthcare.  I guess it's easier and more fun to just get pissed at Mexicans and shit.

[Arturo Bandini]

Call me a commie but you need a social revolution. You do the work, they get the money. It's not acceptable.

But as long as billionnaires makes the news and tell you what you are supposed to think, it ain't happening.

Don't be fooled, they own both sides of the political spectrum.

[samhain]

I'm only 46, so my perspective on this is mainly as someone who's only lived through the economic ups and downs of the last half-century. I could be mistaken in this opinion. Here goes:

America is a relatively young nation. It has vast resources and a lot of land area that's tough to control by any one government entity. Outside of the British aristocrat cast-offs that founded the country in it's current state, the upper-class here has been in the process of forming over the last couple hundred years. There was opportunity for a wider range of people to become part of that upper class, and more quickly than in older Western societies.

In this, America seemed like a very special thing. It was something to fight for and protect. People (well, white people, to be honest) felt like they had a stake in something that was great.

Get into the postwar 50's, and the US is becoming a/the superpower. The baby boom created a massive economy, and the move from agrarian societies to industrial ones provided both jobs to work and products to buy and sell. Anyone could get a good job, relatively speaking, meaning anyone could live the "American Dream" of owning a home, a car, having two kids, etc on one salary. People with real ambition could do even more, but the baseline was honest work for a decent, respectable life with a few fun distractions tossed in on weekends.

What am I getting at? Well, it's my belief that although we are tribal animals, people don't want to spend their lives in conflict. People with a purpose and some economic stability (and potential for upward mobility) do not want radical change to their political environment. They don't elect clown candidates. They definitely don't regard political opposition as "the enemy". They drink with them, make fun of them, shake hands and go back to work on Monday. I recall it being this way right up until the early 2000's. Maybe even the Clinton administration in the 90's. Things were going so good economically and geopolitically that we sat around talking about some hillbilly getting a beej for a couple of years. The right wing radio got huge, right about when jobs were getting shipped elsewhere en-masse. Perfect storm again, as the right wing radio pioneers were successful in goading their minions to blame the social safety net and brown folk for the disappearance of their American Dream, when they should have been trying to get a grip on corporate greed run wild.

We took our collective eyes off the ball in this country in order to bicker with each other rather than the people who were slowly turning us into a high-rent banana republic. Fortunately or unfortunately, the system works. The good old middle class done turned feral on everyone. Companies and the ruling class have forgotten the value of a contented citizenry that believes in the basic "goodness" of their nation. The lost the motivation to keep people contented and secure enough to feel like there's something worth fighting to keep. Now they are feeling the brunt of that oversight. This would always lead to either enhanced socialism or authoritarian populism. I still think authoritarianism will win out which will do nothing for jobs and nothing for salaries/wages. It may boost the investor class, but that niche continues to shrink.

[*pally*]

If the government shuts down on Oct 1 because Congress can't get its act together and fund it, we will absolutely have major problems with the economy. Right now, the Freedom caucus has no plans to agree to any bill unless 1) Joe Biden is impeached and 2) their draconian extreme budget cuts happen

[samhain]

(09-04-2023, 12:59 PM)pally Wrote: If the government shuts down on Oct 1 because Congress can't get its act together and fund it, we will absolutely have major problems with the economy.  Right now, the Freedom caucus has no plans to agree to any bill unless 1) Joe Biden is impeached and 2) their draconian extreme budget cuts happen

That whole finger pointing game is dumb as shit.  Everyone know's it's all political theater of the most low-brow variety at this point.  If the Freedom caucus is dumb enough to believe that they won't suffer for causing a default, then they aren't paying attention.  The gain for them is minimal.  Then again, they are composed of some pretty special kinds of morons.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(09-04-2023, 12:59 PM)pally Wrote: If the government shuts down on Oct 1 because Congress can't get its act together and fund it, we will absolutely have major problems with the economy. Right now, the Freedom caucus has no plans to agree to any bill unless 1) Joe Biden is impeached and 2) their draconian extreme budget cuts happen

(09-04-2023, 07:03 PM)samhain Wrote: That whole finger pointing game is dumb as shit.  Everyone know's it's all political theater of the most low-brow variety at this point.  If the Freedom caucus is dumb enough to believe that they won't suffer for causing a default, then they aren't paying attention.  The gain for them is minimal.  Then again, they are composed of some pretty special kinds of morons.

No more talk about that in here.
Let's try to keep one thread clean. :)