Forget Politics, are we heading for a recession

[*pally*]

(09-04-2023, 08:58 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: No more talk about that in here.
Let's try to keep one thread clean. :)

Hey Mike, I was simply stating what the Freedom Caucus has publicly stated. If they block the legislation needed to fund the government by Oct 1, as required by law, because it doesn’t go far enough in slashing the budget and/or Kevin McCarthy doesn’t bend to their desire to impeach Biden, then the ensuing government shutdown can very easily topple to country into a recession. They’ve done it before in less perilous economic times.
The extreme cuts the Freedom Caucus wants would shove millions off the cliff into unemployment, homelessness and hunger, yank away healthcare (including those serviced by the VA), and thrust them into extreme poverty as essentially they only want to fund the DOD. Democrats will never agree to that and frankly neither will the moderate Republicans. The Senate would never pass such a budget as that plan will destroy the economy. But that won’t stop them from trying.
A government shutdown is a very real threat to the economy therefore pertinent to a discussion on whether we are heading for a recession.

[GreenDragon]

(09-03-2023, 01:46 AM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: take your pick, some are reporting a mild recession now or "soft landing" but the one sign that usually predicts it is still there.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/07/24/us-likely-headed-for-a-recession-in-end-2023-or-early-2024-jpmorgan.html#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20is%20likely%20headed,the%20“primary%20driving%20force.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/are-we-in-a-recession-2023-economy-federal-reserve-interest-rates-rcna67826

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-still-headed-for-recession-stock-market-crash-2023-8

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fed-staff-expects-banking-crisis-cause-recession-year/story?id=98540661

"tightening credit conditions" given as a reason on the first link. 

[Mike M (the other one)]

(09-05-2023, 01:51 AM)GreenDragon Wrote: "tightening credit conditions" given as a reason on the first link. 

if you are looking for the sign, it's in the third one.

"There is a key differentiating factor, Rosenberg said, that will indicate whether the economy is on the path to a true soft landing or will end up in a recession: the interest rates on different kinds of Treasurys. The Treasury yield curve measures the different interest rates that are paid out on various bonds issued by the US government. Usually, the interest rate on short-dated Treasuries — bonds that pay investors in less than a year — are lower than yields on far-out bonds like the 10-year Treasury. But when that flips and interest rates on short-term Treasurys are higher than their long-term cousins — known as a yield-curve inversion — is a sure sign of a recession, Rosenberg said. That's because it's a sign that investors are worried about the economy's stability over the next few months and are seeking safety in long-term bonds. The yield and curve has been inverted since the end of last year. Since the 1960s, the indicator has a perfect track record of preceding recessions."


for a better explanation of that:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/07/yield-curve-inverted-the-lowest-since-1981-what-it-means-for-yo.html

[JustWinBaby]

(09-03-2023, 03:08 PM)masonbengals fan Wrote: From what I understand the only permanent tax cuts were corporate tax rates.

All other tax rates are restored to prior tax schedule levels.

Upon further reading. The only reason the personal tax cuts are not permanent is because not one democrat voted for them, so the only way to get them done was through budget reconciliation which has an expiration date.

Guess who will vote against it in 2025. The same people as before would be my guess.

I'm certainly no expert & far from rich, but I did receive a tax cut.

I never read the corporate cuts were permanent.  I'm not sure how you'd carve out, and "pay" for those without the usual budget tricks.  I thought it was all part of one agreement that expired in 2025.

And I'm not sure it matters - corporate profits end up, one way or another, in the pockets of individuals taxed at individual rates.  There may be a marginal impact with publicly traded companies where the reduction eliminates some double-taxation, and could end-up being taxed at individual cap gains rates.  But to the extent those are wealthy people, that's a 20% cap gains rate vs an average corporate effective rate that, I think, was something like 24% or possibly 28% prior to the 2017 cuts.

Also, there is already talk of Republicans in blue states wanting to lift or eliminated the SALT deduction.  And barring Repubs controlling the Senate and WH, along with a decent majority in the House, it's likely to simply expire.

I'll just add that, no, tax cuts do not trickle down.  But tax increases do.

[JustWinBaby]

(09-05-2023, 02:31 AM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: if you are looking for the sign, it's in the third one.

I was going to say a "soft landing" has never been engineered, but I believe it has once or twice in the last 40 years.

A lot of traditional economic indicators seem to have broken after the 2008 financial crisis.  We had a record long expansion, in years (but likely not in total growth).  And then they papered over a recession during Covid.

We are again pretty highly levered, not unlike in 2008.  Difference is that leverage may be more widespread as opposed to being concentrated [in the mortgage market].  But I think the recent banking stress shows we're on pretty fragile footing.  So they are really trying to thread the needle for a "soft landing".  My guess is we won't see anything as severe as 2008, but something akin to 2001 is a distinct possibility.  There's a bubble in VC/Tech/SPAC that looks a lot like the old dotcom bubble.

I haven't looked at Uber in a while, but perfect example.  There guidance had been, basically, that they'll never be profitable until their fleet is all self-driving cars.  When you jack up interest rates like this, you're going to kill companies like that who have been propped up with easy money.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(09-05-2023, 01:51 AM)pally Wrote: Hey Mike, I was simply stating what the Freedom Caucus has publicly stated.  If they block the legislation needed to fund the government by Oct 1, as required by law, because it doesn’t go far enough in slashing the budget and/or Kevin McCarthy doesn’t bend to their desire to impeach Biden, then the ensuing government shutdown can very easily topple to country into a recession. They’ve done it before in less perilous economic times.
The extreme cuts the Freedom Caucus wants would shove millions off the cliff into unemployment, homelessness and hunger, yank away healthcare (including those serviced by the VA), and thrust them into extreme poverty as essentially they only want to fund the DOD.  Democrats will never agree to that and frankly neither will the moderate Republicans. The Senate would never pass such a budget as that plan will destroy the economy.  But that won’t stop them from trying.
A government shutdown is a very real threat to the economy therefore pertinent to a discussion on whether we are heading for a recessionSr

Sorry, i got my threads crossed on this one and the Fix Homeless/Poverty one

[Mickeypoo]

(09-03-2023, 10:00 PM)samhain Wrote: I mostly agree.  Maybe fully.  

I'm far from a Trump supporter or a conservative, but Trump should have been a real warning to the upper class in this country.  They want business as usual, ie making shitloads of cash while paying people down the pyramid as little as possible.  It works to an extent, but they continued to take and take and take year after year and decade after decade.  They sent jobs overseas to get out of paying decent wages here, benefitting from globalism while the rest of us suffered from it.  Benefits decreased until they became next to nothing compared to what they were in the 70's.  

Trump is A problem, but he's never been THE problem.  He's actually a sign that democracy is working and that when the American people become disaffected enough, they have the power to upset the entrenched power structure.  He never gets elected in a country where people have the spare cash to spend on distractions and hobbies.  When they don't, political propaganda becomes more enticing and blaming large groups of ethnicities, religions, and mainly foreigners becomes a fun hobby.  

It would be super cool if people focused their anger on getting better wages for working people, better funded local governments, and better access to affordable healthcare.  I guess it's easier and more fun to just get pissed at Mexicans and shit.

I'm not pissed at "Mexicans and shit".  I'm pissed our Federal Gov't currently wants to allow millions of illegal aliens to flood in.

[*Nately120*]

(09-06-2023, 04:03 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: I'm not pissed at "Mexicans and shit".  I'm pissed our Federal Gov't currently wants to allow millions of illegal aliens to flood in.

Currently?  Reagan granted amnesty and GW Bush told us they were here to do jobs Americans didn't want to do.  It wasn't that long ago Mexicans were here to do the fair work that lazy union workers thought they should get obscene amounts of money to do.  We had to let them in to bail out the suffering corporations.  That was the GOP's narrative on Mexicans and illegals.

Then Trump comes along and calls them rapists and suddenly they've gone from coming here to save business owners from lazy and entitled Americans, and they've just come here to rape and pillage.

So what is it?  Either both political parties, including the GOP messiah, Ronald Reagan, himself have been allowing rapists into the country for 40+ years, or Trump, other politicians, and political pundits are blowing something out of proportion in order to line their own pockets.  Take your pick, either way this is nothing new.  Hell, if you've ever been to a restaurant you were probably within raping distance of a bunch of illegals, so maybe we do need to lock the country down again for that reason.

You talk about hard times and recessions?  I don't think I can afford to have my roof fixed by a company that makes sure every one of their workers is a legal citizen who gets his mandated wages, benefits, breaks, and sick days.  Can you?

[Mickeypoo]

(09-06-2023, 05:09 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Currently?  Reagan granted amnesty and GW Bush told us they were here to do jobs Americans didn't want to do.  It wasn't that long ago Mexicans were here to do the fair work that lazy union workers thought they should get obscene amounts of money to do.  We had to let them in to bail out the suffering corporations.  That was the GOP's narrative on Mexicans and illegals.

Then Trump comes along and calls them rapists and suddenly they've gone from coming here to save business owners from lazy and entitled Americans, and they've just come here to rape and pillage.

So what is it?  Either both political parties, including the GOP messiah, Ronald Reagan, himself have been allowing rapists into the country for 40+ years, or Trump, other politicians, and political pundits are blowing something out of proportion in order to line their own pockets.  Take your pick, either way this is nothing new.  Hell, if you've ever been to a restaurant you were probably within raping distance of a bunch of illegals, so maybe we do need to lock the country down again for that reason.

You talk about hard times and recessions?  I don't think I can afford to have my roof fixed by a company that makes sure every one of their workers is a legal citizen who gets his mandated wages, benefits, breaks, and sick days.  Can you?

Clinton and Obama were both tough on immigration. I voted for both. I have zero problem with controlled immigration.

I Don’t care what politician or what party. Our borders should be tightly secured and controlled. Period.

Those sanctuary cities blowing things out of proportion also? Crying about getting a fraction of what’s pouring across the border. Begging for fed money and help and declaring emergencies. Ship them all to sanctuary cities. Maybe some of these dumbasses will realize their policies suck. I won’t hold my breath.

It just so happens I had to put a new roof on my house within the last year. 22k. Not fun. Probably paid 25%-40% more then it would have been prior to bidenomics. Fun times.

[*Nately120*]

(09-06-2023, 11:47 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: It just so happens I had to put a new roof on my house within the last year.  22k.   Not fun.   Probably paid 25%-40% more then it would have been prior to bidenomics.  Fun times.

If all the materials and labor were American you should feel proud to have your wallet battered about.  We've all got to sacrifice for this stuff.

[Mickeypoo]

(09-07-2023, 08:48 AM)Nately120 Wrote: If all the materials and labor were American you should feel proud to have your wallet battered about.  We've all got to sacrifice for this stuff.

Right, sacrifice since Biden was elected.  Prior to that, much less sacrifice.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(09-07-2023, 01:44 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: Right, sacrifice since Biden was elected.  Prior to that, much less sacrifice.

My 401k feels like a lamb being sacrificed since Biden moved in.
During Trump's tenure i enjoyed logging into it often and updating my spread sheets to monitor the daily up/downs (usually up). After the first year of Biden, i only log in monthly so as to not be pissed daily anymore.

[*Nately120*]

(09-07-2023, 01:44 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: Right, sacrifice since Biden was elected.  Prior to that, much less sacrifice.

Well, I just don't buy the notion that the issues we regular folk face started in 2021 and can be remedied by handing the country back over to Trump.  We're on a 40+ year ride to this juncture and we eagerly hopped in the proverbial car.  

[LSUfaninTN]

(09-03-2023, 10:00 PM)samhain Wrote: It would be super cool if people focused their anger on getting better wages for working people, better funded local governments, and better access to affordable healthcare.  I guess it's easier and more fun to just get pissed at Mexicans and shit.

Illegal* Mexicans. Most that have fallen (Byzantine, Roman, Ottoman, Soviet Union, to an extent Weimar Republic) experienced a huge influx of illegal immigrants. People like to give GOP a hard time for wanting stronger borders (we’ve gotta be the only country dumb enough to actually fight for that kind of thing), but mayor of NYC literally just said “illegal immigration will be the death of this city” a mere 2 years after saying “all are welcome.” Basically, “as long as it’s not in my backyard”

[Mickeypoo]

(09-07-2023, 05:13 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Well, I just don't buy the notion that the issues we regular folk face started in 2021 and can be remedied by handing the country back over to Trump.  We're on a 40+ year ride to this juncture and we eagerly hopped in the proverbial car.  

I never said unless we hand it back to Trump.

I just want politicians who actually make decisions that put America and it's legal citizens first.  I want moderates and 2 parties that can compromise instead of this 2 party all out nuclear war.  Dems went poco loco far left.  Even Bill Mahr and other old school/moderate Liberals acknowledge that.

The problem is that if one party is in power and the other tries to compromise and help make the best decisions then the chances of the party not in power getting into power is significantly less.  So no point in working to make anything better, just make shit really bad and try to blame the other side.

[Mickeypoo]

(09-08-2023, 12:13 AM)LSUfaninTN Wrote: Illegal* Mexicans. Most that have fallen (Byzantine, Roman, Ottoman, Soviet Union, to an extent Weimar Republic) experienced a huge influx of illegal immigrants. People like to give GOP a hard time for wanting stronger borders (we’ve gotta be the only country dumb enough to actually fight for that kind of thing), but mayor of NYC literally just said “illegal immigration will be the death of this city” a mere 2 years after saying “all are welcome.” Basically, “as long as it’s not in my backyard”

It's truly amazing to watch the epic levels of stupid.

[*Nately120*]

(09-08-2023, 12:14 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: I never said unless we hand it back to Trump.

I just want politicians who actually make decisions that put America and it's legal citizens first.  I want moderates and 2 parties that can compromise instead of this 2 party all out nuclear war.  Dems went poco loco far left.  Even Bill Mahr and other old school/moderate Liberals acknowledge that.

The problem is that if one party is in power and the other tries to compromise and help make the best decisions then the chances of the party not in power getting into power is significantly less.  So no point in working to make anything better, just make shit really bad and try to blame the other side.

Maybe I'm being hyperbolic, but I look at the 2024 election and I get the notion that only one of the candidates is going to 100% leave after his 4 years is up.  I can list a number of republicans I've liked and preferred to democrats over the past 20 or so years, but they've been thrown out because they aren't MAGA.  

You and I both want more moderate and reasonable candidates, yet you seem to think Trump is less of an impediment to that happening that I do.  If Trump wins in 2024 the idea of the GOP returning to moderation goes completely out the window.  When I look at Biden and Trump I personally see one political party that is moving towards the end of the spectrum a lot faster than the other.  Just my 2 cents.

[Mickeypoo]

(09-08-2023, 12:25 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Maybe I'm being hyperbolic, but I look at the 2024 election and I get the notion that only one of the candidates is going to 100% leave after his 4 years is up.  I can list a number of republicans I've liked and preferred to democrats over the past 20 or so years, but they've been thrown out because they aren't MAGA.  

You and I both want more moderate and reasonable candidates, yet you seem to think Trump is less of an impediment to that happening that I do.  If Trump wins in 2024 the idea of the GOP returning to moderation goes completely out the window.  When I look at Biden and Trump I personally see one political party that is moving towards the end of the spectrum a lot faster than the other.  Just my 2 cents.

I don't want Trump or Biden.

I don't think either will make anything more moderate.

If my choice is between the two though, I am voting for the guy who doesn't have dementia (or whatever cognitive disease he has), who won't attack fossil fuels, who had far better foreign policies, who doesn't want to ban guns, fuel sources, appliances, etc.  Basically the Regressives/far left have hijacked the Dem party and they are bat shit crazy.

[*Nately120*]

(09-08-2023, 01:04 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: I don't want Trump or Biden.

I don't think either will make anything more moderate.

If my choice is between the two though, I am voting for the guy who doesn't have dementia (or whatever cognitive disease he has), who won't attack fossil fuels, who had far better foreign policies, who doesn't want to ban guns, fuel sources, appliances, etc.  Basically the Regressives/far left have hijacked the Dem party and they are bat shit crazy.

Ok well a lot of people would say you want more moderate candidates but you are picking the less moderate of your two options.  I get it, politics is perception over all else.  It's easy to just pick one guy and say "Well, I don't like this guy but I'm picking him because the other guy is totally insane."  I guess that's how we got where we are on a lot of things.

I feel like you're the second person I've talked to in the past 24 hours who tells me that we both want more moderate candidates, but then hits me with a deluge of marketing-style misdirection about one candidate in an effort to convince me that the guy who is pushing one political party somewhere you are telling me you don't want it to go is the right choice.

I could be wrong, I just don't think people who want moderate candidates buy into the banning stoves and ceiling fans propoganda.  Or maybe Trump is the sane one and I've lost my mind, it's possible.

[hollodero]

(09-08-2023, 12:13 AM)LSUfaninTN Wrote: Illegal* Mexicans. Most that have fallen (Byzantine, Roman, Ottoman, Soviet Union, to an extent Weimar Republic) experienced a huge influx of illegal immigrants.

As of now I have never seen anyone argueing that illegal immigrants played a role in the fall of the Weimar republic.
So, it wasn't just the Germans who are to blame for Hitler's rise after all. It's those non-Germans flooding the country.

Rome, sure, it got overrun by the Goths. I guess one can paint getting conquered as a huge influx of illegal immigrants.