GOP Debate Tonight

[West Union KennyG]

(10-31-2015, 01:41 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: Why not? Trump has slumped and he is acting erratic. Rubio was seen by most as being the winner of the debate. Jeb falling only helps him.

I agree Rubio had a good performance.  I like Rubio.
But Trump isn't slumping, and is dominating polling and even the debate polling.
Most will vote for Trump regardless of what the guy says or does, largely because they know he's not bought by the donor class.  A majority of Republican voters feel the small group they can trust to not get to Washington and vote with democrats consists of Trump, Carson, and Cruz.  And the Republican nominee will be one of those three.

[JustWinBaby]

(10-31-2015, 12:17 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I still think Kasich would be one of the best bets to win a general election. 

I don't disagree.  He'd likely take OH, which is almost literally halfway to POTUS (plus Florida, locked-up with Rubio as VP).

I see Kasich as a real unifier willing to make deals and reach across the aisle.  Hillary COULD be that, but only if the polls tell her to do it.  But she's also a dishonest snake.

My preference is for Paul, but he's kind of an unpresidential asshole.  Our choices suck as much as ever.  I really wish Gov. Schweitzer had run, because that would have made things interesting on multiple levels...

[JustWinBaby]

(10-31-2015, 11:48 PM)West Union KennyG Wrote: I agree Rubio had a good performance.  I like Rubio.

Honestly, if you despise Obama I'm not sure how you can support Rubio.  Rubio is basically a Repub version of Obama-lite....MAYBE a bit less of an uncompromising, pandering idealogue....but similar career politician-never-had-a-real-job inexperienced campaigner.

When I look at Obama, I see a guy who's made every decision with his post-POTUS standing in mind - that's where the money and legacy is.  Rubio will be exactly the same.  That's not good for the country.

Yet, if you don't support Rubio that may pave a path for Cruz, which would be far worse.

[StLucieBengal]

(11-01-2015, 04:47 AM)JustWinBaby Wrote: I don't disagree.  He'd likely take OH, which is almost literally halfway to POTUS (plus Florida, locked-up with Rubio as VP).

I see Kasich as a real unifier willing to make deals and reach across the aisle.  Hillary COULD be that, but only if the polls tell her to do it.  But she's also a dishonest snake.

My preference is for Paul, but he's kind of an unpresidential asshole.  Our choices suck as much as ever.  I really wish Gov. Schweitzer had run, because that would have made things interesting on multiple levels...

Ok this is interesting .... You support rand but also like kasich.... They are totally opposite ends on a policy perspective. Can you explain what you like in his policies?

And I agree Rand has come off like an ahole in debate 1 and that hurt him.

[StLucieBengal]

(11-01-2015, 04:51 AM)JustWinBaby Wrote: Honestly, if you despise Obama I'm not sure how you can support Rubio.  Rubio is basically a Repub version of Obama-lite....MAYBE a bit less of an uncompromising, pandering idealogue....but similar career politician-never-had-a-real-job inexperienced campaigner.

When I look at Obama, I see a guy who's made every decision with his post-POTUS standing in mind - that's where the money and legacy is.  Rubio will be exactly the same.  That's not good for the country.

Yet, if you don't support Rubio that may pave a path for Cruz, which would be far worse.

I think Trump is most like Obama. Ok the sense that he will just "do it himself" if congress doesn't do what he wants. This is bad for the country.

Rubio is basically Romney. Which will be like another bush. He is doing whatever he can to get elected and proving that he stands for nothing conservative. Which is a shame, as he is my senator.

[StLucieBengal]

Bush, Rubio, kasich, Christie, Fiorina, Huckabee all pull the same establishment voters.

Carson, trump, Cruz, rand. Pull from similar pools. I think a lot of walker people went to Carson.

As people bow out we can see where their support should probably go or be divided.

Huckabee and his evangelicals will prob go to Cruz or Carson over an establishment.

[JustWinBaby]

(11-01-2015, 06:07 AM)StLucieBengal Wrote: Ok this is interesting ....  You support rand but also like kasich....  They are totally opposite ends on a policy perspective.  

I don't think it's difficult.  I like Paul, but think Kasich will be more effective.  The POTUS has to be a leader and a deal maker.  That's Kasich, Bush, Trump, Fiorina and Clinton. I can't stand 2-3 of those, but those are the people who will get shit done.

Being further right or left might be good optics, but it doesn't mean they are capable of actually accomplishing more then someone closer to the center.  Paul on his best day probably can't move the needle more than Kasich and - this might be difficult for some to grasp - if he's an idealogue he may actually move the needle LESS than Kasich.

[Belsnickel]

(10-31-2015, 11:48 PM)StLucieBengal Wrote: That's fair. But maybe we should try one. Certainly electing a progressive hasn't gotten that accomplished.

We need a Calvin Coolidge conservative.

Someone like that at POTUS is not going to shrink the govt. Congress holds the purse strings. The WH can propose anything they like, create any program, Congress can just not fund it. On the reverse, the WH can veto appropriations/spending and Congress can override. There are some things both sides can do there, but Congress has much more power with the budget than the POTUS.

[BmorePat87]

(10-31-2015, 11:48 PM)West Union KennyG Wrote: I agree Rubio had a good performance.  I like Rubio.
But Trump isn't slumping, and is dominating polling and even the debate polling.
Most will vote for Trump regardless of what the guy says or does, largely because they know he's not bought by the donor class.  A majority of Republican voters feel the small group they can trust to not get to Washington and vote with democrats consists of Trump, Carson, and Cruz.  And the Republican nominee will be one of those three.

A 14 point lead in September to a 4 point lead (in some polls, losing) in October suggests a slump. Kasich criticism against Trump and Carson was legitimate and I think people will begin to take notice of this. They're in over their heads and they look ridiculous sometimes in their policy suggestions. The straight man always wins the GOP nomination, and of the straight men left in the bunch, Rubio is the best one. He has experience, he's latino, he's in his 40's, and he's conservative enough but can appeal to independents. He destroys Hillary in a general election. The only people to beat someone over 10 years younger than them (and he's nearly 25 years younger than her) since the Great Depression were FDR and Reagan, the two contemporary darlings of their respective parties.

Cruz will offer some primary challenge, but Carson and Trump are going to be afterthoughts by March. Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich were polling in the 20's the October before Iowa while Santorum was polling 1%.

[StLucieBengal]

(11-01-2015, 08:15 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: Someone like that at POTUS is not going to shrink the govt. Congress holds the purse strings. The WH can propose anything they like, create any program, Congress can just not fund it. On the reverse, the WH can veto appropriations/spending and Congress can override. There are some things both sides can do there, but Congress has much more power with the budget than the POTUS.

Well this is why I wanted a tea party speaker. But the tea party has a good enough grasp on the house to stop almost anything the progressives want to do. Ryan claims he will be taking back some of the financial power of the house so we will see.

[StLucieBengal]

(11-01-2015, 06:58 AM)JustWinBaby Wrote: I don't think it's difficult.  I like Paul, but think Kasich will be more effective.  The POTUS has to be a leader and a deal maker.  That's Kasich, Bush, Trump, Fiorina and Clinton.  I can't stand 2-3 of those, but those are the people who will get shit done.

Being further right or left might be good optics, but it doesn't mean they are capable of actually accomplishing more then someone closer to the center.  Paul on his best day probably can't move the needle more than Kasich and - this might be difficult for some to grasp - if he's an idealogue he may actually move the needle LESS than Kasich.

Kasich scares me because he seems too willing to do any deal. I think his value is as a VP.... If he can deliver Ohio. For the progressives they would love to see a Rubio/Kasich ticket. Unless Bush comes back from the dead Ofc.