GOP candidate leads by 0.9% in OH 12th; 8,400 outstanding ballots left to be counted

[BmorePat87]

Balderson leads O'Connor by 0.9% or roughly 1,800 votes in the special election for Ohio 12th. There are 8,400 outstanding ballots left to be counted.

The deep red district went Republican in 2016 by nearly 40% and Balderson held double digit leads in polling in June.

Balderson is claiming victory, O'Connor isn't conceding until the other ballots are counted, and the race hasn't been called yet. Trump tweeted out congratulations to Balderson, claiming Balderson was down in the race before Trump came to Ohio.

This continues the trend since the 2016 election of special elections shifting substantially to the left. Though most seats have been retained by the GOP, they have all been seats where Republicans won by 15-40% in the previous election.

Arizona's 4th went from +37 R to +4.
Georgia's 6th went from +23 to +3.
South Carolina's 5th went from +21 to +3.
Montana's at large went from +16 to +5.
Kansas' 4th went from +31 to +6.
Utah's 3rd was the only one that stayed strong red, going from +47 to +33.

Democrats took PA's 18th with a +0.5% margin. Republican Murphy went unopposed where in 2014 and 2016 and defeated his Democratic opponent by 28% in 2012.

Democrats also took Alabama's senate seat by a margin of 2%, a seat Jeff Sessions won unopposed in 2014 and by 28% in 2008.

[GMDino]

Shows hows districts are set up to support one party...but also how higher voter turnout can swing things.

[*michaelsean*]

(08-08-2018, 01:05 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: Balderson leads O'Connor by 0.9% or roughly 1,800 votes in the special election for Ohio 12th. There are 8,400 outstanding ballots left to be counted.

The deep red district went Republican in 2016 by nearly 40% and Balderson held double digit leads in polling in June.

Balderson is claiming victory, O'Connor isn't conceding until the other ballots are counted, and the race hasn't been called yet. Trump tweeted out congratulations to Balderson, claiming Balderson was down in the race before Trump came to Ohio.

This continues the trend since the 2016 election of special elections shifting substantially to the left. Though most seats have been retained by the GOP, they have all been seats where Republicans won by 15-40% in the previous election.

Arizona's 4th went from +37 R to +4.
Georgia's 6th went from +23 to +3.
South Carolina's 5th went from +21 to +3.
Montana's at large went from +16 to +5.
Kansas' 4th went from +31 to +6.
Utah's 3rd was the only one that stayed strong red, going from +47 to +33.

Democrats took PA's 18th with a +0.5% margin. Republican Murphy went unopposed where in 2014 and 2016 and defeated his Democratic opponent by 28% in 2012.

Democrats also took Alabama's senate seat by a margin of 2%, a seat Jeff Sessions won unopposed in 2014 and by 28% in 2008.

Losing those close ones has to hurt the most because it probably takes a lot of things breaking your way to close that gap.  But they may get a second shot since next time Trump will be up for election which should bring people out.  

It's about time for a congressional turnover I would guess.  Seems since the Republicans broke the 40+ year hold Democrats had on the House it's been bouncing back and forth.

[*bfine32*]

I think the fact that O' Connor is not a supporter of many of the more liberal agendas gives hope that maybe the Dems will make a concerted effort to move more central than left.