GOP up to 6% point lead in latest generic poll

[Yojimbo]

(05-22-2018, 06:01 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Like so many Americans I see that you no longer care about the national debt. but here are a few more moves that will have negative effects on us.

His efforts to cut off health insurance for children (CHIP) were stymied, but not before putting some states so short of funds that they had to close enrollment.  Millions of families were threatened with loss of coverage for their children/

Appointing Scott Pruit as head of the EPA will lead to poison air and water.

Backing out of the Iran deal opens the door for Iran to develop nuclear weapons, and coupled with moving the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem it is lighting fuses in the middle east.  But that goes right along with the biggest increase in military spending since we started the Iraq War.

His public acceptance of white supremacists has emboldened them to the point that they don't worry about having to wear hoods in public.

He is empowering al-Qaida in Syria. By forging a de facto alliance with Russia and Iran to defeat the Islamic State, Trump is driving Sunni Arabs into the waiting arms of al-Qaida — which is preparing to replace the Islamic State and is much more dangerous.

To add a couple of huge gaffes:

Leaving the Iran deal cost boeing a huge contract, which was conviently filled by Russia.

The China trade tariff row lead to China buying billions of dollars worth of soy from....yup, Russia again.

[Bengalzona]

Sounds like a lot of GOPers have time during the day to sit around and take polls.

Probably easier to find time for that when your on the welfare rather than working for living!

[SunsetBengal]

(05-22-2018, 07:05 PM)fredtoast Wrote: No.  I did not know that.  I assumed that the #1 cable news network was the same as the #1 news network.

So what news network has more viewers than Fox?

However, is it really that important?  A continually growing number of Americans don't even watch "TV" in the traditional sense.  More and more, people are streaming their entertainment, and simply reading their information online.  

[treee]

Not worried. The turnout for the Dems will be just fine. I think it is possible they flip both houses, but not enough for impeachment to get through.

[*Nately120*]

(05-22-2018, 07:04 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Of course I found the birthers entertaining. But I do not find there to be a correlation as to the level. For instance how many Obama impeachment countdowns did you know about? 

I wasn't trying to make it a contest, I was legit curious if you thought people whining for 8 years of Obama's tenure were funny, too.  I googled Obama impeachment and found this...ehh, it's wikipedia so take it for what it's worth. 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efforts_to_impeach_Barack_Obama


Here is a clip of Hannity insinuating that Obama's mustard choice makes him some hoity toit sort..  Maybe Hannity is some sort of comedian, or something. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAvq12Sa3VE



But as I've said about Trump you have to realize that people have been making fun of and ripping on him for decades.  As I pointed out before, Sesame Street has made fun of Trump multiple times in the 80s and 90s so it's not exactly like being critical of Trump is entirely politically motivated.

[Belsnickel]

(05-22-2018, 07:52 PM)Bengalzona Wrote: Sounds like a lot of GOPers have time during the day to sit around and take polls.

Probably easier to find time for that when your on the welfare rather than working for living!

Interesting fact, many polls do tend to skew conservative because the respondents are often older. Older people are more likely to have landlines and more likely to stay on the line and answer questions.

[*Nately120*]

(05-22-2018, 09:02 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: Interesting fact, many polls due tend to skew conservative because the respondents are often older. Older people are more likely to have landlines and more likely to stay on the line and answer questions.

70 years after "Dewey Defeats Truman!" and we've learned so little.

[Belsnickel]

(05-22-2018, 09:15 PM)Nately120 Wrote: 70 years after "Dewey Defeats Truman!" and we've learned so little.

For those that aren't aware, the reason for the mistake in that race was because the pollsters, relying on landlines, didn't account for more affluent households having phones in them and being over represented in the sample. We try to account for these sorts of things, now, but it's not always on the money.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

The best type of "Polls" are stripper polls!

But in the political world, the best are Exit Polls. Oh man, the 2000 election of Bush over Gore was great. Everyone said they voted for Gore, news outlets were reporting Gore was going to win because of the Exit Polls and then Florida happened.

Polls are garbage, they just can't be taken seriously any more. 
Hillary was supposed to beat Trump
Romney was supposed to beat Obama, hell a houseplant should have beaten Obama but Romney disappeared, lol.
McCain was supposed to beat Obama but what's her face was named Vice Presidential Candidate.
Kerry, in his bicycle shorts was supposed to beat Bush.

I think the last time the polls predicted the winner was Clinton second term since he had to move to the center after his first terms mid-term elections.

Hell, I'm probably wrong on this but wasn't Mondale supposed to beat Ronny?

[SunsetBengal]

(05-22-2018, 09:23 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: For those that aren't aware, the reason for the mistake in that race was because the pollsters, relying on landlines, didn't account for more affluent households having phones in them and being over represented in the sample. We try to account for these sorts of things, now, but it's not always on the money.

Is that anything similar to Hillary being so far up on the Donald in the polls, prior to the election?

[Belsnickel]

(05-22-2018, 11:00 PM)Nebuchadnezzar Wrote: The best type of "Polls" are stripper polls!

But in the political world, the best are Exit Polls. Oh man, the 2000 election of Bush over Gore was great. Everyone said they voted for Gore, news outlets were reporting Gore was going to win because of the Exit Polls and then Florida happened.

Polls are garbage, they just can't be taken seriously any more. 
Hillary was supposed to beat Trump
Romney was supposed to beat Obama, hell a houseplant should have beaten Obama but Romney disappeared, lol.
McCain was supposed to beat Obama but what's her face was named Vice Presidential Candidate.
Kerry, in his bicycle shorts was supposed to beat Bush.

I think the last time the polls predicted the winner was Clinton second term since he had to move to the center after his first terms mid-term elections.

Hell, I'm probably wrong on this but wasn't Mondale supposed to beat Ronny?

(05-22-2018, 11:31 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Is that anything similar to Hillary being so far up on the Donald in the polls, prior to the election?

I wish you could have seen my body sigh when I read these posts. If you look at the polls from the 2016 election and compare that with the popular election results, you will see that many of the reputable pollsters had the results well within the MoE. The issue is that pollsters don't have a good way to account for the electoral college. They don't have the resources to really get down to the district level for each district. This is, coincidentally, the reason why the generic ballot national polls we're talking about in this thread have to be taken with a grain of salt.

Polling isn't garbage. The data in polls and the calculations used by pollsters to come up with their results is good. What isn't good is when the punditry in the media grabs hold of that information and makes claims from it that they think are supported by the data and the statistics, but really aren't. That's what is coloring the views of polls right now.

When you see a story that is about polling results, I recommend that everyone click in and read the actual polling toplines or the analysis from the pollster themselves. Even better is to find a meta-analysis (this is why I go to 538 often, because they do a meta of the various polls). But read what the pollsters have to say, not the pundits. 99% of the time you will find that the punditry is drawing an inference that may not be conclusive from the polling.

[jj22]

(05-22-2018, 07:07 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Obviously we must forgive him for winning the election. As I said; folks are entertaining. 

There's no forgiving joining forces with our top enemy (the one who has enough nukes pointed at us to wipe us off the map in 5 minutes) to attack a fellow American regardless of how you feel about that American. I don't care what party you belong to, there's no excusing that. How can you guys be so supportive of that and claim to be pro America?

Of course you guys think you can claim that because you believe Hillary and the Dems are the ones who colluded with Russia to I guess have them hack the DNC, HRC, and Podesta, spend months heading up to the election releasing those emails along with the Pro Hillary/OBAMA Justice Department leaking info on Hillary being under investigation while hiding the fact Trump was under Investigation for a far more serious crime than emails.... Alll in the hopes of helping Trump win..... I mean who really believes this? Folks have to stand up for themselves and let it be known they have some sense or they'll always be played for fools by politicians.

Just like you can't claim to be pro law enforcement while spending every day attacking our law enforcement. Truth is Trump supporters care nothing about law enforcement. Remember the "Law and Order" talking point they cheered? Right. That was quick. So much for blue lives mattering. They are losing that talking point more and more every day. They just don't want black people complaining about injustice. But let their POTUS be under investigation and well.... all bets are off. Injustice is rampant they too claim now.

They owe the black community an apology. Hell from the sounds of the complaining about our top law enforcement, yall may want to consider kneeling.

People are seeing through that and it will be tough for Trump to make these claims in 2020. His actions don't support his words. And Trump supporters aren't really pro America, pro law enforcement etc.

Independents will rescue this country since Trump supporters have no true philosophy and they've so painfully played their cards as hypocrites. What we say, you can believe. No spin, no conspiracy theories. No hypocrisy. Join us, quit playing the fool. Love and respect yourself, take a stance and enjoy the ability to stick with it no matter the party.

[*bfine32*]

(05-23-2018, 10:52 AM)jj22 Wrote: There's no forgiving joining forces with our top enemy (the one who has enough nukes pointed at us to wipe us off the map in 5 minutes) to attack a fellow American regardless of how you feel about that American. I don't care what party you belong to, there's no excusing that. How can you guys be so supportive of that and claim to be pro America?

Of course you guys think you can claim that because you believe Hillary and the Dems are the ones who colluded with Russia to I guess have them hack the DNC, HRC, and Podesta, spend months heading up to the election releasing those emails along with the Pro Hillary/OBAMA Justice Department leaking info on Hillary being under investigation while hiding the fact Trump was under Investigation for a far more serious crime than emails....  Alll in the hopes of helping Trump win..... I mean who really believes this? Folks have to stand up for themselves and let it be known they have some sense or they'll always be played for fools by politicians.

Just like you can't claim to be pro law enforcement while spending every day attacking our law enforcement. Truth is Trump supporters care nothing about law enforcement. Remember the "Law and Order" talking point they cheered? Right. That was quick. So much for blue lives mattering. They are losing that talking point more and more every day. They just don't want black people complaining about injustice. But let their POTUS be under investigation and well.... all bets are off. Injustice is rampant they too claim now.

They owe the black community an apology. Hell from the sounds of the complaining about our top law enforcement, yall may want to consider kneeling.

People are seeing through that and it will be tough for Trump to make these claims in 2020. His actions don't support his words. And Trump supporters aren't really pro America, pro law enforcement etc.

Independents will rescue this country since Trump supporters have no true philosophy and they've so painfully played their cards as hypocrites. What we say, you can believe. No spin, no conspiracy theories. No hypocrisy. Join us, quit playing the fool. Love and respect yourself, take a stance and enjoy the ability to stick with it no matter the party.

Glad to see you being more active in the forum 22. As to your point; you're barking up the wrong tree as I have made it known I voted 3rd party.

[*michaelsean*]

(05-22-2018, 04:44 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Give people tax breaks and they will forgive everything else.

But this "generic" poll is meaningless.  You have to break it down district by district.

Agreed.  

[jj22]

(05-23-2018, 11:56 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Glad to see you being more active in the forum 22. As to your point; you're barking up the wrong tree as I have made it known I voted 3rd party.

I am new to the forum. So I'm still learning.

[fredtoast]

(05-22-2018, 11:00 PM)Nebuchadnezzar Wrote: Polls are garbage, they just can't be taken seriously any more. 
Hillary was supposed to beat Trump
Romney was supposed to beat Obama, hell a houseplant should have beaten Obama but Romney disappeared, lol.
McCain was supposed to beat Obama but what's her face was named Vice Presidential Candidate.
Kerry, in his bicycle shorts was supposed to beat Bush.

I don't think you are remembering correctly.  Obama was ahead in the polls against both Romney and McCain, and Kerry was trailing bush by quite a bit I believe.

[Griever]

(05-23-2018, 12:06 PM)jj22 Wrote: I am new to the forum. So I'm still learning.

its ok

he says it, but his posting tells a different story

[*PhilHos*]

(05-22-2018, 11:00 PM)Nebuchadnezzar Wrote: Polls are garbage, they just can't be taken seriously any more. 

Those who know me, know I don't put much stock into ANY poll. Doesn't matter if they do their best to be as non-partisan or as honest or as trustworthy as possible, unless you're polling the entire group of whatever information you're seeking (and I know that's basically impossible) I'm not going to accept any poll as being representative of anything other than those polled.