Games against losing teams last year

[fredtoast]

(05-14-2022, 09:09 PM)Sled21 Wrote: When they rank schedules, it's by how teams finished the year before.

Not when we are talking about last year and know exactly how the teams finished.

Any talk about last year's SOS will be based on how the teams did last year.

[Rubekahn29]

I mean, we can talk about SOS or SOV or ABC, but we still beat 3 playoff teams when it mattered, 2 on the road, and 1 that won 2 straight AFC championships, and was in its 4th consecutive. We also barely lost the super bowl. This with one of the worst lines in NFL and worst line to ever make the super bowl. I won’t be worried until we start losing more games than we are winning.

[Essex Johnson]

(05-14-2022, 03:28 PM)Joelist Wrote: Let's also remember that last year especially earlier on Burrow was not fully himself yet - he was still shaking off rust and getting back in his groove after the injury. Without this we win the Bears game and the Packers game and possibly Cleveland Game #1. It happens.

it some ways I am happy with Mayfield gone out of Cleveland, he totally had our number while he was QB 6-1 114 rating against us.. 

[impactplaya]

(05-15-2022, 11:17 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: it some ways I am happy with Mayfield gone out of Cleveland, he totally had our number while he was QB 6-1 114 rating against us.. 

Everytime the Bengals faced Mayfield the pass rush failed to show up that day 
Clean jersey the whole game. But on the flip side Garrett and Co. 
Had their way with the Bengals Oline 

[Mike M (the other one)]

(05-15-2022, 10:48 PM)impactplaya Wrote: Everytime the Bengals faced Mayfield the pass rush failed to show up that day 
Clean jersey the whole game. But on the flip side Garrett and Co. 
Had their way with the Bengals Oline 

Wonder how much their C had to do with that.... 

[*michaelsean*]

I really don't care much about preseason SoS. Teams move all over the place from year to year. And those worried about a first place schedule, the Bengals went 1-2 with their last place schedule last year.

[WeezyBengal]

It's so beyond me how someone can say the Bengals "lucked" into the playoffs.

They literally beat the hottest/best team in the league to secure the division.

[TecmoBengals]

(05-16-2022, 02:20 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: It's so beyond me how someone can say the Bengals "lucked" into the playoffs.

They literally beat the hottest/best team in the league to secure the division.

Agreed. Sure, luck might always be in play but this team earned their victories. 

[XenoMorph]

(05-16-2022, 02:20 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: It's so beyond me how someone can say the Bengals "lucked" into the playoffs.

They literally beat the hottest/best team in the league to secure the division.

Well early in the year we had some lucky breaks go our way. 1 or 2 less wins and who knows how the pecking order would have went.

Played really well down the stretch though.

[THE PISTONS]

(05-15-2022, 10:48 PM)impactplaya Wrote: Everytime the Bengals faced Mayfield the pass rush failed to show up that day 
Clean jersey the whole game. But on the flip side Garrett and Co. 
Had their way with the Bengals Oline 

The Browns did have a solid offensive and defensive line for the past couple seasons.

[fredtoast]

(05-16-2022, 02:20 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: It's so beyond me how someone can say the Bengals "lucked" into the playoffs.

I give the Bengals credit for playing well enough to get 10 regular season wins.  But sometimes in close games a big break can make the difference in the game.  Bengals did have a few things go in their favor. 

Vikings...Dalvin Cook only fumbled 3 times last year, but one of them came with the Vikings in range for a 55 yard FG with less than 2 minutes left in overtime.

Jacksonville....Trailed by 7 in 4th quarter.  Burrow sacked on third down in final drive, but it is wiped out by a defensive holding penalty. Won on FG with 0:00 left.

Denver.....Drew Lock only fumbled twice last year but one of them was at the Bengals 9 yard line in the 4th quarter of a 15-10 game.

Chiefs.....Trailed by 4 in 4th quarter.  Converted a 3rd and 27 on final drive to set up game winning FG with 0:00 left.

[ATOTR]

Imagine if we can ever start to beat the browns, even once a year.

Benglas have been miserable vs Cleveland over the last 5 years.

Even worse than the reds have been against the tribe over the same stretch

Clev has owned cincy of late.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(05-16-2022, 04:20 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I give the Bengals credit for playing well enough to get 10 regular season wins.  But sometimes in close games a big break can make the difference in the game.  Bengals did have a few things go in their favor. 

Vikings...Dalvin Cook only fumbled 3 times last year, but one of them came with the Vikings in range for a 55 yard FG with less than 2 minutes left in overtime.

Jacksonville....Trailed by 7 in 4th quarter.  Burrow sacked on third down in final drive, but it is wiped out by a defensive holding penalty. Won on FG with 0:00 left.

Denver.....Drew Lock only fumbled twice last year but one of them was at the Bengals 9 yard line in the 4th quarter of a 15-10 game.

Chiefs.....Trailed by 4 in 4th quarter.  Converted a 3rd and 27 on final drive to set up game winning FG with 0:00 left.

And some that didn't go in their favorl

GB FG attempts
SF We Got FG in OT, but couldn't stop SF from scoring TD.

Also, to note, there was 2 different Joe B's out there in 1st half of season vs 2nd half of the season. I that had more to do with him getting his confidence back from his injury. 

Joe should come out playing now like he was in 2nd half of the season last year, and with the OL improvements, it's quite possible he plays even better! 

TBH I feel 8-1 headed into the Bye is not out of the question.

[Murdock2420]

(05-16-2022, 02:20 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: It's so beyond me how someone can say the Bengals "lucked" into the playoffs.

They literally beat the hottest/best team in the league to secure the division.

And beat every other playoff team they faced to get to the Super Bowl.

The only luck I saw from the Bengals was they were lucky with the lack of injuries. 

[ATOTR]

(05-16-2022, 05:26 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: And beat every other playoff team they faced to get to the Super Bowl.

The only luck I saw from the Bengals was they were lucky with the lack of injuries. 

I think they were incredibly lucky against the chiefs week 17 to get bailed out on the .5 yard line numerous times w flags that let them kick the time expiring fg

Were they pentalties? Yes. But can you always count on them so help you so many times. No

That was some pretty bad execution and play calling

[fredtoast]

(05-16-2022, 05:19 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: Also, to note, there was 2 different Joe B's out there in 1st half of season vs 2nd half of the season. I that had more to do with him getting his confidence back from his injury. 

Joe should come out playing now like he was in 2nd half of the season last year,

Some fans did not like it in 2020 when I kept reminding them that Burrow's passer rating was 24th in the league.  But at the same time I always pointed out that as a rookie behind a terrible O-line Burrrow had the second lowest int percentage in the league (1.2%).  That is a ridiculous number for rookie.  It is also a ridiculous number for a QB with no running game who knows he has to carry the offense.

So I did not really panic when Burrow threw all those picks last year.  I knew that if he could not read defenses he would never have had a 1.2% interception percentage as a rookie.

But a big reason that after 14 weeks we were just 7-6 and struggling to stay in the playoff race was that Joe was leading the league in interceptions (14).  But once he relaxed and stopped trying to force too many high risk passes we caught fire.  Here is an interesting breakdown of Joe's career.

First 10 games..........  5 ints
next 13 games.......... 14 ints
last 8 games.............  2 ints

I don't think we have anything to worry about Burrow coming out throwing a bunch of picks.

[casear2727]

(05-16-2022, 04:20 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I give the Bengals credit for playing well enough to get 10 regular season wins.  But sometimes in close games a big break can make the difference in the game.  Bengals did have a few things go in their favor. 

Vikings...Dalvin Cook only fumbled 3 times last year, but one of them came with the Vikings in range for a 55 yard FG with less than 2 minutes left in overtime.

Jacksonville....Trailed by 7 in 4th quarter.  Burrow sacked on third down in final drive, but it is wiped out by a defensive holding penalty. Won on FG with 0:00 left.

Denver.....Drew Lock only fumbled twice last year but one of them was at the Bengals 9 yard line in the 4th quarter of a 15-10 game.

Chiefs.....Trailed by 4 in 4th quarter.  Converted a 3rd and 27 on final drive to set up game winning FG with 0:00 left.

Out of 17 games Im pretty sure that every team can pinpoint an instance like the ones above that occurred to help them win a game.  The injury situations in the division and lack thereof to us is most likely the biggest "luck" factor.

[reuben.ahmed]

(05-14-2022, 05:58 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Math is way wrong

Last year our opponents went 135-152-2  .471%

You must be looking at the 2022 schedule.

Nope, math isn't way wrong.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-strength-of-schedule-2021-hardest-easiest/y6gf4dqghy9n1cv6gwhn0rytu

Opponents' 2020-21 (the season before 2021-22)'s record: .529 (144-128).

Strength of schedule is determined before the season starts not after it's over.

[reuben.ahmed]

(05-14-2022, 05:27 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: If you use raw record, then yes. However, there is a better way to try to assess SOS, in my opinion. I like the SOS metric that PFR provides. It is looking at your opponents margins of victory and who they have played to get there. Long story short, a lot of the Bengals opponents had mediocre records but didn’t really play tough schedules themselves.

By this metric, the Bengals had the easiest schedule in the league. I’m not entirely certain that I agree with that, but I don’t believe that the Bengals had the third toughest schedule by any stretch. The answer is probably somewhere in between what we are discussing here. I think Cincinnati had a fairly easy schedule. None of the divisional teams were very good except for Baltimore, who was eaten alive by injuries. Then you add in teams like the Jets, Lions, Jaguars, and Bears and it starts looking pretty unimpressive.

I think they showed out well against the tough teams, aside from the Chargers. They played GB and SF tough while outright beating KC.

That is an interesting take. Now the Bengals play a lot of close games (margin of victory). I wonder how many wins we could attribute to Evan Mcpherson. A lot of doubters seem to reference this "The Bengals might have lost 4-5 more games because of" the kicker. I mean Fat Randy wouldn't have taken us to the super bowl let alone the playoffs, probably.

They mention this as if the game could have swung the other way, there aren't many McPherson/Tuckers around.

[KillerGoose]

(05-22-2022, 09:36 PM)reuben.ahmed Wrote: Nope, math isn't way wrong.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-strength-of-schedule-2021-hardest-easiest/y6gf4dqghy9n1cv6gwhn0rytu

Opponents' 2020-21 (the season before 2021-22)'s record: .529 (144-128).

Strength of schedule is determined before the season starts not after it's over.

For pre-season projections, yes. It makes no sense to use 2020 data to determine how difficult a schedule was in 2021. Do you think that Cincinnati was an easy opponent in 2021? I don’t, but by this method, they were.

Calculating SOS using prior season data is a way to discuss the upcoming schedule before it’s played. In reality, Cincinnati had the 29th ranked schedule by opponent win percentage. It wasn’t a tough schedule.