Helsinki--the Tipping Point?

[Benton]

(07-17-2018, 03:55 PM)Dill Wrote: Concisely expressed and persuasive.  


Not always. We pretty much have FDR (plus a world war) to thank for the UN, World Bank, IMF, NATO etc., even if Truman had to see all that through. You are right that these complex foreign policy relations are "beyond" any one president, if by that you mean to directly control. But it is not beyond any one president to maintain existing alliances, and it is not beyond any one to sabotage them. I think this president may effect a massive re-arrangement, and there will be little our own intel community and DOD, or comparable "in-house" forces, can do about it. (I made this argument earlier this year regarding the Far East as well.)

I say that because Trump is forcing allies to step back and re-consider their national interest. The problem goes beyond Trump, since there is a significant segment of the American voting public who embraced his bad judgment as good sense. They cannot be voted out of office and will remain long after Trump. Our allies understand this. The impetus for change will come largely from the EU itself, and will be hard to stop once put in motion. Countries have to figure out how to insure economic and military security. That imperative drives them to consider alternatives, to create, and sometimes go with, a plan B or a plan C.  

To the bold, you could be right. Although, I would be surprised. The same folks that pushed for Bush to expand government bloat and put multiple agencies under fewer umbrellas are largely the same folks who are still holding those umbrella handles. And many of the appointments and advancements in agencies like CentComm fall in line with that so that when someone like Obama comes along, it makes it easier to manipulate data and facilitate outcomes.

And having typed that, I sound like a conspiracy theorist. But it's really not, it's just the same big Washington players who have been floating around appointments and departments since the 70s. No conspiracy, they do their manipulating out in the open, pretty much.

As far as the last graf, I dunno. I think most countries realize minor changes are going to happen from time to time. Sometimes we love Turkey, sometimes we shake our head, for example. But we're still allies. Those allies know that what the American people want is largely irrelevant. Almost every poll will tell you the same: US citizens want jobs, wage growth, less involvement in other countries, less war, better healthcare and more education opportunities. And we keep getting the same results because, by and large, the same people are in charge: stagnant job growth, flat wages, more fighting, more involvement in other countries, worse healthcare and less education/higher secondary ed costs.

[*michaelsean*]

This fallout hasn't occurred since the Helsinki episode of 1919, and I think we all remember how THAT turned out!

[Dill]

Trump straightens it all out at today's news conference.

At Helsinki he meant to say "Why wouldn't" not "Why would it be Russia?"

He accepts the judgment of our intel services that Russia "influenced" our election.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/growing-number-in-gop-call-for-trump-to-fix-the-damage-from-helsinki-news-conference/2018/07/17/7ea15178-8902-11e8-8aea-86e88ae760d8_story.html?utm_term=.ce4657b9556c

 He adds that there still could have been other players.

[Dill]

(07-17-2018, 04:07 PM)Benton Wrote: And having typed that, I sound like a conspiracy theorist. But it's really not, it's just the same big Washington players who have been floating around appointments and departments since the 70s. No conspiracy, they do their manipulating out in the open, pretty much.

As far as the last graf, I dunno. I think most countries realize minor changes are going to happen from time to time. Sometimes we love Turkey, sometimes we shake our head, for example. But we're still allies. Those allies know that what the American people want is largely irrelevant. Almost every poll will tell you the same: US citizens want jobs, wage growth, less involvement in other countries, less war, better healthcare and more education opportunities. And we keep getting the same results because, by and large, the same people are in charge: stagnant job growth, flat wages, more fighting, more involvement in other countries, worse healthcare and less education/higher secondary ed costs.

I don't think so. Your explanation is just multi-factoral, taking into account how institutions and organizations, even in government, have a degree of autonomy, and their own resistance to others' purposes. (At the same time, they can be occasionally "re-purposed"--like ICE-- to do things the weren't supposed to do.) You understand how individuals are constrained by institutions, have to work within them, and how institutions may sometimes work at cross purposes--especially when leaders and rank and file think they are protecting their own interests. So we get results and policies sometimes that are certainly "there" but not really what anyone wanted.

Conspiracy theories go the opposite direction. They eliminate resistance so otherwise opposed players suddenly work together in frictionless coordination--thousands in different departments of the DoD conspire to take down the twin towers for the White House and a cabal of neocons, and make it look like terrorists did 9/11; none were concerned about killing their own family members and fellow Americans; or how so many could keep it all secret for so long, planting bombs on every other floor of the towers and building or commandeering commercial jets etc.  Smooth operation and secret. Or was it the Mossad?  How did all the Jews know beforehand not to show up for work that day? That's not what you are doing.

I mostly agree with your second paragraph--except my question is whether Trump is moving us beyond the "norm," the expectation that things will settle down again.  You mention Turkey--I could pose the same question with regard to Erdogan. 

Not sure about the last point. Is the problem the same people or that one group keeps blocking healthcare, etc.

[*PhilHos*]

(07-17-2018, 04:28 PM)michaelsean Wrote: This fallout hasn't occurred since the Helsinki episode of 1919, and I think we all remember how THAT turned out!

If you can dodge a wrench, you can dodge a fallout.

[Dill]

(07-17-2018, 05:05 PM)PhilHos Wrote: If you can dodge a wrench, you can dodge a fallout.

You cannot dodge "a" noncount noun.

[hollodero]

(07-17-2018, 02:55 PM)Griever Wrote: nothing will happen

His base won't turn, so politicians won't turn, so FOX won't turn, so his base won't turn.

After more than one year, this pattern will remain.

Now about the Trump tolerators, Conservatives ant anti-Liberals, that aren't really supporters... one shall see. Those are usually outraged for a day or so, before Maxine Waters or some college campus becomes the more urgent issue again.

[*bfine32*]

Did the OP really lament the fact that there was not another Trump thread?

As to his comments: anyone with any rationality at all realizes they were beyond the pale.

[Dill]

(07-17-2018, 06:32 PM)hollodero Wrote: His base won't turn, so politicians won't turn, so FOX won't turn, so his base won't turn.

After more than one year, this pattern will remain.

Now about the Trump tolerators, Conservatives ant anti-Liberals, that aren't really supporters... one shall see. Those are usually outraged for a day or so, before Maxine Waters or some college campus becomes the more urgent issue again.

So you are saying no tipping point?

Remember, Trump hit bottom at Helsinki like never before; no president has ever stood beside an adversary who attacked the US and sided with him against our own intel services; no one can equivocate this with a "whataboutObama?", who never sank that low or appeared so plainly out of his element. And on the issue of national security no less, after ignoring his own staff and advisors. His credibility as deal maker and "strong" politician has been irreparably damaged, and the gaslighting today finally looked like just that to some supporters.  The bullying will continue when opportunity presents itself, but only a Churchill style wartime performance could repair the tough man rep now.  You don't think this incident might peel away a significant percentage of his base--say 10%?

Trump toleraters and anti-liberals might see how close they come to getting burned/embarassed for defending someone who has been throwing up red flags for three years as others called it right.  I expect them to withhold support, or share it more grudgingly now, and even to voice some criticism.

People who might have been genuinely on the fence or unsure if all the negative comments about Trump's competence were spot on or just Hillary butthurt will now likely be off the fence. Some may realize a bad president is bad for them and the country and the world, even if tomorrow nothing has changed in their lives.

I want to throw in one more factor here. If I am right about Trump, this humiliation will de-stabilize his personality further. His behavior will become more erratic, making it easier for supporters to disavow the resulting unforced errors, but harder to endorse the man making them. Any of the other candidates from either party would respond to an unforced error of this magnitude by becoming more cautious and disciplined; Trump will not. Cannot.

I see an effort to repair Trumpworld, stitching back together all that Congressional support, disparaging the press, leading supporters in "build the wall" chants; but it will be weaker, even on Fox, whose commentators have had a glimpse now of what could go wrong for the party, how things could get worse, with no one but Trump himself to blame--and those remembered as his enablers.

Note Bene--just watching Thomas Friedman on CNN, after reading Amanda Carpenter's book on Trump's gaslighting. His method is becoming an explicit theme, which I think will inhibit its effectiveness, especially after Helsinki. Friedman is highlighting the frequent deployment of contradictory statements. Trump said in an interview that May handled Brexit badly. NO he did not say anything like that. Fake news etc.

[Bengalholic]

I rarely post in here, and don't really don't care much either party anymore, but what Trump did in Helsinki was inexcusable. To have the POTUS defend and kiss the ass of a vile dictator who is continuously trying to attack and undermine our democracy...was just stunning and infuriating.

I don't care who you voted for, or which party you stand with...the cowardice and weakness that Trump displayed while standing along side Putin was just downright embarrassing and extremely disappointing. And even worse, this comes on the heels of him shitting on the G7, EU and NATO.

I just don't know how any citizen that considers themselves even slightly patriotic can be OK with what transpired in Helsinki.

[Dill]

(07-17-2018, 09:04 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: I rarely post in here, and don't really don't care much either party anymore, but what Trump did in Helsinki was inexcusable. To have the POTUS defend and kiss the ass of a vile dictator who is continuously trying to attack and undermine our democracy...was just stunning and infuriating.

I don't care who you voted for, or which party you stand with...the cowardice and weakness that Trump displayed while standing along side Putin was just downright embarrassing and extremely disappointing. And even worse, this comes on the heels of him shitting on the G7, EU and NATO.

I just don't know how any citizen that considers themselves even slightly patriotic can be OK with what transpired in Helsinki.

So . . . still can't accept that Hillary lost?  

No, just kidding Bengalholic. I agree. Trump showed astonishingly bad judgment.  And you are right, it wasn't just that. It was also weakness. Perhaps fear.

Why haven't we ever heard Trump challenge "little Putin" the way he did Jeb and Marco and "Rocket man"?  

[Dill]

(07-17-2018, 06:43 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Did the OP really lament the fact that there was not another Trump thread?

As to his comments: anyone with any rationality at all realizes they were beyond the pale.

I am pretty sure the "lament" was that there was not a single thread on Helsinki, so far the most consequential event of Trump's presidency, in terms of its effect on his credibility. And I add that anyone with any rationality ought to have seen this fiasco coming--like before the election.

If his comments were "beyond the pale,"  then how should "rational" folks respond? 

[*bfine32*]

(07-17-2018, 09:17 PM)Dill Wrote: I am pretty sure the "lament" was that there was not a single thread on Helsinki, so far the most consequential event of his presidency, in terms of its effect on his credibility.

If his comments were "beyond the pale,"  why wouldn't they deserve their own thread?

How should "rational" folks respond? 

Meh, start as many threads as you like; just found it funny with the "I cannot believe there's not a thread" when to current most active thread in this forum is about Trump and Putin.

Rational folks should be outraged over his comments. I know I am and would love to see a heart-felt apology to the American people and their investigative branch. 

Irrational folks might cll it treason

[samhain]

I doubt it hurts him much with his base, if at all. He's virtually beyond reproach with them. I actually listened to Willie Cunningham this morning because I was interested to hear where he's fall on the issue of the summit.

I was a bit surprised to hear him be 100 percent ride or die with Trump, right along with his guest, Rand Paul. He even went with the "we do it, too" excuse when it comes to influencing elections in other nations. While the US has certainly done that and more abroad, it's kind of shocking for me to hear this from a rightwing talking head. The right has been the bastion of "American Exceptionalism" ever since the phrase became a thing. Now they're equating the actions of our military and intelligence services with that of one of the worst imaginable actors on the world stage in Vlad Putin. We're god's representative on earth, but at the same time we're no better than a kleptocrat who illegally annexes territory, funnels money to oligarchs (and himself), kills people who publicly oppose him in his own nation, and fantasizes about nuking Florida.

It didn't make America sound very exceptional at all. When liberals are critical of US policy abroad, we're unpatriotic and anti-America. Now however, the right must defend their wrecking ball, therefore our foreign policy is no better than Putin's Russia.

They have way too much to gain from keeping Trump in office. There's virtually nothing that will change their minds about him, this summit included.

[Belsnickel]

(07-17-2018, 03:00 PM)treee Wrote: I think the midterm elections (for the House in particular) will be a true referendum on how the US public feels about Trump representing the U.S. on the world stage. I'm pretty sure this worries a lot of R incumbents in purple states.

I don't think they will be. The approval rate of Congress has been abysmal for years, yet the same folks keep getting elected. People piss and moan but then vote for the same people time and time again.

(07-17-2018, 03:29 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: pretty sure you just described every politician in DC Dem or Rep....

Its why some of us voted for the non politician option

Yeah, non-politicians in the House of Representatives is fine. Even in the Senate it can be okay because of the structures in place. But putting someone who doesn't understand the bureaucracy in charge of the bureaucracy isn't smart. He wasn't really an outsider. He was one of the people pulling the strings and making everyone disgusted with Washington, by paying off politicians to get his way. Yet he pulled the wool over the eyes of so many, making them feel like he was just like them, that he had their best interests in mind. He has always been a part of the problem, but he made people think he was the solution. What's worse is that he is is inept and lacks any real values to guide him. The word is that his bearing is set by whomever he speaks with last.

I understand the desire for something new. But what has happened is that we were having a problem with foxes killing the hens and then put a fox in the hen house. Albeit he isn't the brightest of the foxes, not as sly as most of them, but he is a fox none the less.

[hollodero]

(07-17-2018, 08:57 PM)Dill Wrote: So you are saying no tipping point?

I don't know. To me, that depends on the bfines, Sunsets and SSF's etc. of this world, figures I of course regard as some kind of allegoric entities representing a certain part of America. Yeah not really, they are just dudes with brains, but I guess those will decide Trump's fate in the end. If they start to fully turn against him, the electoral majority will slip.

Will they turn? I doubt it. There's still Maxine Waters, and that would be what they'd have to turn to. And tomorrow Trump maybe bombs some bad folks that more or less deserve it, and Helsinki will be past and you and I are back to being called deranged again. It's not like Trump didn't go that route with Putin before. He already said that it could also have been Tschaina, that Putin assured him he didn't do it and that he gets offended by the allegations by now. Those statements probably aren't that much less worse, but pretty much forgotten still.

All the "deplorables" who do know exactly what Breitbart is are lost anyway. I see the "he could shoot a guy (or Comey) and not lose support" as pretty much accurate for those people. The narrative that the real crazy america-hating enemy is within the own country and votes blue runs far too deep and beats every possible argument from the start. I'm sure Breitbart etc. will soon discover that Russia is good, the radical leftists+MSM+deep state is hateful and warmongering and that's that. Good enough for sure.

(07-17-2018, 08:57 PM)Dill Wrote: Remember, Trump hit bottom at Helsinki like never before;

Remember, the same was true in several instances before. And people always tought that's it. From Grabbing to Charlottesville etc. Always rock bottom, never a real problem.

(07-17-2018, 08:57 PM)Dill Wrote: no president has ever stood beside an adversary who attacked the US and sided with him against our own intel services; no one can equivocate this with a "whataboutObama?", who never sank that low or appeared so plainly out of his element. And on the issue of national security no less, after ignoring his own staff and advisors. His credibility as deal maker and "strong" politician has been irreparably damaged, and the gaslighting today finally looked like just that to some supporters.  The bullying will continue when opportunity presents itself, but only a Churchill style wartime performance could repair the tough man rep now.  You don't think that might peel away a significant percentage of his base--say 10%?

I don't know. I agree with your perception of Trump, but Helsinki didn't really alter or change my mind about him to begin with. What drives those who didn't share our perspective on him before, I dare not say.

(07-17-2018, 08:57 PM)Dill Wrote: I see an effort to repair Trumpworld, stitching back together all that Congressional support, disparaging the press, leading supporters in "build the wall" chants; but it will be weaker, even on Fox, whose commentators have had a glimpse now of what could go wrong for the party, how things could get worse, with no one but Trump himself to blame.

Then again, foxy lady and her friends had to sit through an awful, cringeworthy live interview with Trump and still managed to not be forever shamed and disgusted. And who gets through that can get through anything to come through for Trump.

[Dill]

(07-17-2018, 09:23 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Meh, start as many threads as you like; just found it funny with the "I cannot believe there's not a thread" when to current most active thread in this forum is about Trump and Putin.

Rational folks should be outraged over his comments. I know I am and would love to see a heart-felt apology to the American people and their investigative branch. 

Irrational folks might cll it treason

He apologized for the Hollywood Access tape. But as a "strong" leader who was going to show us how easy it all is, will he admit to bad political judgment on the foreign policy stage?

Can anything more than "outrage" follow from rational folks? Will that translate into a message vote in 2018 or a shrug?

[Bengalholic]

(07-17-2018, 09:12 PM)Dill Wrote: So . . . still can't accept that Hillary lost?  

No, just kidding Bengalholic. I agree. Trump showed astonishingly bad judgment.  And you are right, it wasn't just that. It was also weakness. Perhaps fear.

Why haven't we ever heard Trump challenge "little Putin" the way he did Jeb and Marco and "Rocket man"?  

I was visiting my dad - a 22 year Army vet, 28 year member of law enforcement and lifelong Republican - during that Helsinki presser. As soon as it was over, my dad said: "Either Trump is the most clueless, delusional politician that ever lived, or Putin truly does have him by the short and curlies". 

Now, I don't know if those are the only two options, but damn...it's getting harder to think of another one that makes much sense when you look at his actions with Putin and Russia.

[Belsnickel]

(07-17-2018, 09:54 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: I was visiting my dad - a 22 year Army vet, 28 year member of law enforcement and lifelong Republican - during that Helsinki presser. As soon as it was over, my dad said: "Either Trump is the most clueless, delusional politician that ever lived, or Putin truly does have him by the short and curlies". 

Now, I don't know if those are the only two options, but damn...it's getting harder to think of another one that makes much sense when you look at his actions with Putin and Russia.

I heard some folks talking about this a little, recently. One of the theories is that Trump just doesn't want to run any risk of seeming like he didn't win on his own accord. But these folks brought up a good point in that Trump has been more friendly to Putin pre-2016. He has been friendly with Putin in other realms.

There might be another explanation, but I don't know what it would be.

[*Nately120*]

(07-17-2018, 09:54 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: I was visiting my dad - a 22 year Army vet, 28 year member of law enforcement and lifelong Republican - during that Helsinki presser. As soon as it was over, my dad said: "Either Trump is the most clueless, delusional politician that ever lived, or Putin truly does have him by the short and curlies". 

Now, I don't know if those are the only two options, but damn...it's getting harder to think of another one that makes much sense when you look at his actions with Putin and Russia.

We elected a guy who had no political experience and now he's looking like the most clueless politician that ever lived.  What are the odds?