How good can Tee Higgins be?

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-21-2021, 01:49 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I am just saying I saw it a lot last year where our guys couldn't get open. 

Just for shitz and giggz let's look at it this way. 

If you see that happening 2, 3, 4 times a game--which seems pretty reasonable, that's at most, 64 times in a year. Let's say you see it 5 times a game. That's 80 times in a 16 game schedule. 

80 times out of 389 targets to WRs last year. That's a 20% clip of the total pass attempts to receivers.
Let's say you see it 8 times a game. 32% clip.
Let's say you see it 10 times a game. 41% clip.

So, if you see Bengals receivers struggling to get open 10 times every game, a pretty ridiculous number iyam, you're still only seeing it happen 41% of the time. Anything below 50% of the time and you can't realistically say they're "having trouble getting open". 

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-22-2021, 08:50 AM)yang Wrote: I think we get it.  You prefer WR’s with cornerbacks draped over them.   A lot of us like the ones that can get away from those guys, at least a little. 

No. I prefer logic, context and truth over subjective perception. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-22-2021, 09:41 AM)Housh Wrote: Tee is likely as good as he’s ever going to be right now. He’s not gonna get faster or develop Chad Johnson like feet. He’s a good WR and likely will be for a decade. No problem with that. Mohammad Sanu made a good career of it

How can you call a rookie (going into his 2nd year) as good as he's ever going to be? As athletic? Sure, probably. But you can't discount experience and learning better route running, tips/tricks etc. Most good receivers continue to get better at getting open as their career advances. 

[Dr.Z]

(04-22-2021, 01:58 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: How can you call a rookie (going into his 2nd year) as good as he's ever going to be? As athletic? Sure, probably. But you can't discount experience and learning better route running, tips/tricks etc. Most good receivers continue to get better at getting open as their career advances. 

You and Fred on previous page beat me to it, but I thought this was crazy too.   What on Earth would lead to such a declaration after a very good prospect has a very good rookie season....only to say: "he's as good as he's ever going to be." 

[fredtoast]

(04-22-2021, 01:43 PM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: But he’s not going to consistently generate separation on vertical routes. That’s not some controversial statement; it’s not reliant upon any statistic, and it’s not message board nonsense. It’s readily apparent.

Only a small percentage of deep routes are straight fly/post patterns.  Most of them are. "go routs" off a hook or slant or out pattern where the receiver creates srparation with route running skills instead of just pure speed.

[coachmcneil71]

I love this message board. Makes me laugh on a regular.

Some of the same dudes that were comparing Tee to AJ after we drafted him last season are the same dudes that are now beating the drum for Chase.

Too funny! So, last year he was an up and coming AJ. He did nothing but good things in his first season, but now the team suddenly needs a #1 WR...lol
Chase is a great talent that should only help the offense if we take him.
Ts, Tee Higgins IS a #1 WR, and many should go ahead and take note of that fact.

[Whatever]

(04-22-2021, 01:52 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Just for shitz and giggz let's look at it this way. 

If you see that happening 2, 3, 4 times a game--which seems pretty reasonable, that's at most, 64 times in a year. Let's say you see it 5 times a game. That's 80 times in a 16 game schedule. 

80 times out of 389 targets to WRs last year. That's a 20% clip of the total pass attempts to receivers.
Let's say you see it 8 times a game. 32% clip.
Let's say you see it 10 times a game. 41% clip.

So, if you see Bengals receivers struggling to get open 10 times every game, a pretty ridiculous number iyam, you're still only seeing it happen 41% of the time. Anything below 50% of the time and you can't realistically say they're "having trouble getting open". 

Dude, by this logic an OL that allows a QB hit on 49% of pass plays doesn't have trouble pass blocking.  A QB that completes 51% of his passes or a K that hits 51% of his kicks don't have accuracy issues.

The bar for good or bad performances by players is relative to the other players at the same position across the league and very rarely is that bar set at 50%.

[Shake n Blake]

(04-22-2021, 01:39 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: There's a lot of in and out cutting routes and a lot of hook routes. Those are a death knell for separation. That's why it's a useless stat. 

People can be my guest and study it all they want but they better check the types of routes that are run to see how it applies to each individual player. 

If Bengals receivers were running a lot of 7s, 8s and 9s and weren't getting enough space from the defender to be effective, then it's a problem but the Bengals don't run all that many of those routes. 

Great point. I watched Higgins' highlights earlier and noticed (A) the announcers exclaiming how "wide open" he was numerous times and (B) when Higgins had a defender draped all over him, it was usually a hook route where he boxed out the corner, but obviously got 0 "separation".

https://youtu.be/H5SOKucpgL8

[JaggedJimmyJay]

(04-22-2021, 02:29 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Only a small percentage of deep routes are straight fly/post patterns.  Most of them are. "go routs" off a hook or slant or out pattern where the receiver creates srparation with route running skills instead of just pure speed.

Right. I don't think Tyler Boyd has shown the capacity to get open downfield regardless of his speed or his route running or his footwork. "Route running skills" are not universal or ubiquitous. Players can be great with some routes and less great with others. It's not terribly different to what T.J. Houshmandzadeh provided 15 years ago. Both he and Boyd will occasionally make a catch downfield, but it isn't going to happen often. It's not what they do best.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-22-2021, 01:52 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Just for shitz and giggz let's look at it this way. 

If you see that happening 2, 3, 4 times a game--which seems pretty reasonable, that's at most, 64 times in a year. Let's say you see it 5 times a game. That's 80 times in a 16 game schedule. 

80 times out of 389 targets to WRs last year. That's a 20% clip of the total pass attempts to receivers.
Let's say you see it 8 times a game. 32% clip.
Let's say you see it 10 times a game. 41% clip.

So, if you see Bengals receivers struggling to get open 10 times every game, a pretty ridiculous number iyam, you're still only seeing it happen 41% of the time. Anything below 50% of the time and you can't realistically say they're "having trouble getting open". 

Okay, damn Rfaulk, just saying we can get better. What is wrong with that?

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-22-2021, 01:58 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: How can you call a rookie (going into his 2nd year) as good as he's ever going to be? As athletic? Sure, probably. But you can't discount experience and learning better route running, tips/tricks etc. Most good receivers continue to get better at getting open as their career advances. 

(04-22-2021, 02:14 PM)Dr.Z Wrote: You and Fred on previous page beat me to it, but I thought this was crazy too.   What on Earth would lead to such a declaration after a very good prospect has a very good rookie season....only to say: "he's as good as he's ever going to be." 

(04-22-2021, 02:29 PM)coachmcneil71 Wrote: I love this message board. Makes me laugh on a regular.

Some of the same dudes that were comparing Tee to AJ after we drafted him last season are the same dudes that are now beating the drum for Chase.

Too funny! So, last year he was an up and coming AJ. He did nothing but good things in his first season, but now the team suddenly needs a #1 WR...lol
Chase is a great talent that should only help the offense if we take him.
Ts, Tee Higgins IS a #1 WR, and many should go ahead and take note of that fact.

Agree with these posts completely. Tee has great upside after a very good to great rookie season. He can get much better
especially at catching the football as he had a few too many drops for my liking. From what Burrow said about Reiff going to
help us tons and what he said about Chase I am certain he will be the pick so everyone not wanting to hear it need to get 
over it. It IS a very deep class for Lineman and we need interior help more than OT help at this moment.

Why can't we get it all? A speedy WR that just has a gift at getting open that has played with Burrow and get the OL fixed?

Why not I ask?

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-22-2021, 01:14 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Is this what people really think of Higgins? Or are people trashing him because they want Chase?

Comparing Tee to Sanu is a really bad take. Tee is obviously a far better player. Tee’s ceiling to me is high end #2, or low end #1. That is obviously higher than Sanu’s ever was.

[Essex Johnson]

After watching Higgins improve as season went on and the offseason comments about him plus a year in our system with Burrow there I believe he will be out top WR this year regardless who we draft

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-22-2021, 07:27 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Okay, damn Rfaulk, just saying we can get better. What is wrong with that?

I'm just here to make your life more enjoyable and ease your concerns, Nate. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-22-2021, 03:21 PM)Whatever Wrote: Dude, by this logic an OL that allows a QB hit on 49% of pass plays doesn't have trouble pass blocking.  A QB that completes 51% of his passes or a K that hits 51% of his kicks don't have accuracy issues.

The bar for good or bad performances by players is relative to the other players at the same position across the league and very rarely is that bar set at 50%.

Nonononono. That's not any kind of reasonable logic that you are applying (i didn't apply it).

If a WRs beat CBs as often as a T or G beat a defender, they'd all be in the HoF. 

Context. Positions have their own expectations. 

[Shake n Blake]

(04-22-2021, 09:50 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Comparing Tee to Sanu is a really bad take. Tee is obviously a far better player. Tee’s ceiling to me is high end #2, or low end #1. That is obviously higher than Sanu’s ever was.

Agreed, although I'm hesitant to put a ceiling on a guy after 1 season.

I'm more "let's give him a chance and see what his ceiling really is" and go from there.

That's another reason I'm not on the Chase train...not to keep that going.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

(04-22-2021, 10:22 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: If a WRs beat CBs as often as a T or G beat a defender, they'd all be in the HoF. 

I am not remotely certain that this is a sound statement.

[*Synric*]

(04-23-2021, 01:55 AM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: I am not remotely certain that this is a sound statement.

It's not really a crazy statement. 

Even bad tackles have a 75% pass block win rate good ones have in the mid to low 90%. 

[Nicomo Cosca]

Nice little clip of Tee doing work.

@teehiggins5 working ? pic.twitter.com/KwXxzjKyYU

— Grade ?️ (@Grade_aTraining) April 23, 2021

[Bengalitis]

(04-22-2021, 02:29 PM)coachmcneil71 Wrote: I love this message board. Makes me laugh on a regular.

Some of the same dudes that were comparing Tee to AJ after we drafted him last season are the same dudes that are now beating the drum for Chase.

Too funny! So, last year he was an up and coming AJ. He did nothing but good things in his first season, but now the team suddenly needs a #1 WR...lol
Chase is a great talent that should only help the offense if we take him.
Ts, Tee Higgins IS a #1 WR, and many should go ahead and take note of that fact.

I remember when we had AJ, Marvin Jones and Sanu.  THAT fairytale didnt last long, that's why you don't invest too much on receivers, then you can't keep any. 

I would take Pitts, Sewell then Chase. It's gonna be nice to burn the Ravens & squeelers for all the years they've burned us with TEs.

A 7th round WR will be our miracle pick.