Posts: 37,609
Threads: 892
Reputation:
123486
Joined: May 2015
Mood: None
(01-02-2020, 09:35 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: Nate Silver, the man behind FiveThirtyEight, actually cautioned pollsters against that interpretation. National polls are designed for the popular vote, not the EC, and as such can be interpreted poorly for the presidential election. The polls weren't wrong, they actually predicted Clinton's popular vote win quite well. This does present a problem for Trump because these polls show a shifting public opinion which they need to change.
Doesn't the latest FiveThirtyEight poll Fred quoted consider percentage of people and not the EC?
Posts: 16,257
Threads: 415
Reputation:
60100
Joined: May 2015
Location: Shenandoah Valley
Mood:
(01-02-2020, 10:01 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Doesn't the latest FiveThirtyEight poll Fred quoted consider percentage of people and not the EC?
This is why I talked about how they show a shifting opinion. I'm not saying it means he won't win the election as it stands right now. I am saying that if more of the public are seeing this as wrong then it is a problem for Trump because of the potential implications.
"A great democracy has got to be progressive, or it will soon cease to be either great or a democracy..." - TR
"The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." - FDR
Posts: 835
Threads: 25
Reputation:
2401
Joined: Aug 2015
Mood: None
(01-02-2020, 09:35 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: Nate Silver, the man behind FiveThirtyEight, actually cautioned pollsters against that interpretation. National polls are designed for the popular vote, not the EC, and as such can be interpreted poorly for the presidential election. The polls weren't wrong, they actually predicted Clinton's popular vote win quite well. This does present a problem for Trump because these polls show a shifting public opinion which they need to change.
So in other words, the polls weren't as reliable as most thought when it came to actually winning the election?
Posts: 835
Threads: 25
Reputation:
2401
Joined: Aug 2015
Mood: None
(01-02-2020, 10:12 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: This is why I talked about how they show a shifting opinion. I'm not saying it means he won't win the election as it stands right now. I am saying that if more of the public are seeing this as wrong then it is a problem for Trump because of the potential implications.
Shifting opinion amongst whom though? And to what degree? And how closely does it relate realistically to the opinion of the American population overall?
Posts: 16,257
Threads: 415
Reputation:
60100
Joined: May 2015
Location: Shenandoah Valley
Mood:
(01-03-2020, 12:34 AM)Matt_Crimson Wrote: So in other words, the polls weren't as reliable as most thought when it came to actually winning the election?
Nope. In other words, people were the problem not the polls.
(01-03-2020, 12:54 AM)Matt_Crimson Wrote: Shifting opinion amongst whom though? And to what degree? And how closely does it relate realistically to the opinion of the American population overall?
Independent voters. Enough to make it a plurality thus far. Pretty closely. As with all things there is a margin of error. However, what Nate does with his meta analyses is take these sorts of things into account. Meta analyses are far more representative of the population than any single poll in the analysis.
"A great democracy has got to be progressive, or it will soon cease to be either great or a democracy..." - TR
"The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." - FDR
Posts: 40,628
Threads: 1,062
Joined: May 2015
Mood: None
(01-03-2020, 12:54 AM)Matt_Crimson Wrote: Shifting opinion amongst whom though? And to what degree? And how closely does it relate realistically to the opinion of the American population overall?
I provided the link. You can look for yourself.
Among Republicans support for impeachment has risen 2.5 points (8.8 to 11.3) since the beginning of the impeachment hearings. Apparently some of them are actually listening to the evidence instead of circle-jerking in the echo chamber.
Posts: 37,609
Threads: 892
Reputation:
123486
Joined: May 2015
Mood: None
(01-03-2020, 11:53 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I provided the link. You can look for yourself.
Among Republicans support for impeachment has risen 2.5 points (8.8 to 11.3) since the beginning of the impeachment hearings. Apparently some of them are actually listening to the evidence instead of circle-jerking in the echo chamber.
I haven't changed mind since the hearing began. Admittedly, unlike many, I hadn't reached a verdict prior to them beginning. I now support an impeachment trial where both sides get their day in court.
Posts: 835
Threads: 25
Reputation:
2401
Joined: Aug 2015
Mood: None
(01-03-2020, 11:53 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I provided the link. You can look for yourself.
Among Republicans support for impeachment has risen 2.5 points (8.8 to 11.3) since the beginning of the impeachment hearings. Apparently some of them are actually listening to the evidence instead of circle-jerking in the echo chamber.
I figured you knew since it seems to be such a big problem for Trump.
Posts: 38,881
Threads: 1,711
Reputation:
55832
Joined: May 2015
Location: SW PA
Mood:
(01-03-2020, 11:53 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I provided the link. You can look for yourself.
Among Republicans support for impeachment has risen 2.5 points (8.8 to 11.3) since the beginning of the impeachment hearings. Apparently some of them are actually listening to the evidence instead of circle-jerking in the echo chamber.
No one needs to click a link or read anything Fred...they "know".
![[Image: giphy.gif]](https://media0.giphy.com/media/1kwsTjL8BNqlszNtnCE/giphy.gif)
Your anger and ego will always reveal your true self.
Posts: 38,881
Threads: 1,711
Reputation:
55832
Joined: May 2015
Location: SW PA
Mood:
Meanwhile during the current Trump distraction:
Your anger and ego will always reveal your true self.
Posts: 38,881
Threads: 1,711
Reputation:
55832
Joined: May 2015
Location: SW PA
Mood:
Also...
Your anger and ego will always reveal your true self.
Posts: 835
Threads: 25
Reputation:
2401
Joined: Aug 2015
Mood: None
(01-03-2020, 08:33 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: Nope. In other words, people were the problem not the polls.
But by the very fact that national polls are designed for the popular vote, would that not translate to the polls themselves not being reliable considering the popular vote doesnt decide who wins the presidency?
Posts: 835
Threads: 25
Reputation:
2401
Joined: Aug 2015
Mood: None
(01-03-2020, 02:51 PM)GMDino Wrote: No one needs to click a link or read anything Fred...they "know".
Huh?
Posts: 16,257
Threads: 415
Reputation:
60100
Joined: May 2015
Location: Shenandoah Valley
Mood:
(01-03-2020, 02:59 PM)Matt_Crimson Wrote: But by the very fact that national polls are designed for the popular vote, would that not translate to the polls themselves not being reliable considering the popular vote doesnt decide who wins the presidency?
The polls are reliable for the information they are providing. It is when people try to take the information and infer conclusions from them that they are not intended to provide that they become a problem.
"A great democracy has got to be progressive, or it will soon cease to be either great or a democracy..." - TR
"The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." - FDR
Posts: 835
Threads: 25
Reputation:
2401
Joined: Aug 2015
Mood: None
(01-03-2020, 03:16 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: The polls are reliable for the information they are providing. It is when people try to take the information and infer conclusions from them that they are not intended to provide that they become a problem.
But is that not the problem here? It is being inferred that Trump has a problem because polls Fred posted "suggest" that public support is swaying away from him.
Posts: 16,257
Threads: 415
Reputation:
60100
Joined: May 2015
Location: Shenandoah Valley
Mood:
(01-03-2020, 03:41 PM)Matt_Crimson Wrote: But is that not the problem here? It is being inferred that Trump has a problem because polls Fred posted "suggest" that public support is swaying away from him.
The polling data shows that the public supported the impeachment vote and has generally been trending in a way that is not favorable for Trump. That is a problem. Does it mean he won't win reelection? No one has said that (that I have seen) because there are too many other variables. However, Senators will watch these numbers and it will guide their votes more than anything else.
"A great democracy has got to be progressive, or it will soon cease to be either great or a democracy..." - TR
"The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." - FDR
Posts: 37,609
Threads: 892
Reputation:
123486
Joined: May 2015
Mood: None
(01-03-2020, 03:16 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: The polls are reliable for the information they are providing. It is when people try to take the information and infer conclusions from them that they are not intended to provide that they become a problem.
Such as "Trump is in trouble come reelection"?
Poll all they want. The only thing that will matter is if he is impeached and removed from office.
Posts: 16,257
Threads: 415
Reputation:
60100
Joined: May 2015
Location: Shenandoah Valley
Mood:
(01-03-2020, 04:03 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Such as "Trump is in trouble come reelection"?
Poll all they want. The only thing that will matter is if he is impeached and removed from office.
Who are you quoting?
"A great democracy has got to be progressive, or it will soon cease to be either great or a democracy..." - TR
"The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." - FDR
Posts: 40,628
Threads: 1,062
Joined: May 2015
Mood: None
(01-03-2020, 03:02 PM)Matt_Crimson Wrote: Huh?
He is talking about how you did not see a problem because only Democrats support impeachment.
Posts: 40,628
Threads: 1,062
Joined: May 2015
Mood: None
(01-03-2020, 04:03 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Poll all they want. The only thing that will matter is if he is impeached and removed from office.
Not really. The Republicans in the Senate will never remove him from office, but the hearings could expose enough information to the voters to get them to vote him out of office.
So these hearings could still be key to removing Trump from office.
|
![[Image: bfine-guns2.png]](https://i.ibb.co/YBkDQJV/bfine-guns2.png)
![[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]](https://i.imgur.com/4CV0TeR.png)
