Iowa Polling: What it might tell us

[BmorePat87]

I love polling. It's great. My two big interest (politics and numbers) together.

So I was looking at Iowa polling.

Here's what caucus goers seem to be telling us:

17-29 vote went to Cruz.

Born again went Cruz, not born again went Trump.

Shares my values NOW is the important thing. 42% want this trait over change (21%), electability (21%) and "tells it like it is" (14%). Cruz took values (38 to Rubio's 21), Rubio took "can win in November" (44 to Trump's 24). Trump took change (33) and tells it like it is (66).

Rubio leads with the economy, Cruz with spending and terrorism, and Trump with immigration.


More analysis when I am not teaching

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/primaries/iowa-entrance-poll/

[BmorePat87]

Assuming these trends continue, it honestly seems like a Rubio-Cruz fight. Values versus electability. Can Rubio show he is strong with foreign policy?

[Benton]

(02-02-2016, 12:47 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: Assuming these trends continue, it honestly seems like a Rubio-Cruz fight. Values versus electability. Can Rubio show he is strong with foreign policy?

Rubio surprised me. I really thought Cruz wouldn't have much problem out of his party for another month or so. And even then I thought it would be Carson making a late run before Rubio.

[JustWinBaby]

I've never thought, and still don't, that Trump or Cruz would win. Obviously Cruz was going to do well in the bible-thumping states.

If Kasich does well in NH, then maybe he makes it a race. Rubio being Latino and charismatic and from FL was always going to make him a factor. He's going to do very well in states where moderates aren't drowned out by the evangelicals.

Also, Rubio has done this primarily on the strength of his debates. He doesn't have the money or name recognition of Trump, nor has he had the backing and grassroots machinery of Cruz.

[RoyleRedlegs]

(02-02-2016, 12:47 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: Assuming these trends continue, it honestly seems like a Rubio-Cruz fight. Values versus electability. Can Rubio show he is strong with foreign policy?

The interesting thing about Rubio-Cruz on foreign policy is, both have been rather gun shy on detailing too much of their plans but Cruz has actually almost endorsed the Obama method vs ISIS and people think he's being tough on them. His carpet bombing line is stupid and sounds tough and mean but it's really stupid and will only worsen things. 

[StLucieBengal]

(02-02-2016, 02:24 PM)Benton Wrote: Rubio surprised me. I really thought Cruz wouldn't have much problem out of his party for another month or so. And even then I thought it would be Carson making a late run before Rubio.

Rubio surprised me as well. Establishment money will now flow to him. He will be easier to control than trump.

[JustWinBaby]

(02-02-2016, 02:58 PM)StLucieBengal Wrote: Rubio surprised me as well.   Establishment money will now flow to him.    He will be easier to control than trump.

First the Clintons, and very soon Obama....now it's Rubio's turn to use politics to make himself wealthy.

So after all the whining about Clinton and Obama, it looks like the Republican primary is moving forward with an Obama clone, a Hillary clone, and a buffoon.

[StLucieBengal]

(02-02-2016, 03:06 PM)JustWinBaby Wrote: First the Clintons, and very soon Obama....now it's Rubio's turn to use politics to make himself wealthy.

So after all the whining about Clinton and Obama, it looks like the Republican primary is moving forward with an Obama clone, a Hillary clone, and a buffoon.

Being president shouldn't be a ticket to be a millionaire. The clinton's are the biggest abuser of that... And Obama will soon take it another level of nonsense.

[Benton]

(02-02-2016, 03:22 PM)StLucieBengal Wrote: Being president shouldn't be a ticket to be a millionaire.   The clinton's are the biggest abuser of that... And Obama will soon take it another level of nonsense.

Picking hairs (or heirs) but that's got to go to the Bush Dynasty. Go back to Prescott and his bouncing around the corporate and banking world, translated that into political office where he paid those corporate backers back and began a family tradition of money-election-payback. The family has used that to progress personally more than any other political family I can think of, as it extends to a very small network who accumulated a ton of wealth in the last century.

[BmorePat87]

(02-02-2016, 03:41 PM)Benton Wrote: Picking hairs (or heirs) but that's got to go to the Bush Dynasty. Go back to Prescott and his bouncing around the corporate and banking world, translated that into political office where he paid those corporate backers back and began a family tradition of money-election-payback. The family has used that to progress personally more than any other political family I can think of, as it extends to a very small network who accumulated a ton of wealth in the last century.

Political dynasties have been around for a very, very, very long time. Prescott just might be the best example of a contemporary American one.

[StLucieBengal]

(02-02-2016, 03:41 PM)Benton Wrote: Picking hairs (or heirs) but that's got to go to the Bush Dynasty. Go back to Prescott and his bouncing around the corporate and banking world, translated that into political office where he paid those corporate backers back and began a family tradition of money-election-payback. The family has used that to progress personally more than any other political family I can think of, as it extends to a very small network who accumulated a ton of wealth in the last century.

Fair point. I used the Clintons due to my age.

So much for the days of the president getting into their actual car with their wife and driving home as they leave office.

[BmorePat87]

Clinton tops Sanders on healthcare, the economy, and terrorism. He tops her on income inequality.

55% of their voters want to keep Obama's policies while 33% want more Liberal. Clinton cleans up with the Obama crowd. Surprising, the majority of the 7% who want LESS liberal policies support... Bernie.

[BmorePat87]

I've seen a lot of people complain about caucus practices, like the fact that Hillary won 6 coin tosses.

It's kind of funny because 20% of these caucus goers are self identified independents. 70% of them support Bernie. So 14% of these people are Independents trying to participate in a Democratic Party event to get another independent selected as the Democrat's nominees. Maybe don't complain about the fact that the leaders of the Democratic Party want to make sure a Democrat is their nominees. It's their party. They make the rules.