Jobs report

[Goalpost]

So the monthly jobs report came out and it showed monthly unemployment dropped to 8.4 percent. Still a big number but jobs have been rebounding seemingly ahead of the forecasts. Couple things to note. It is estimated that 5.2 million people are still restricted in going back to work because some states haven't fully opened up yet. The Wall Street Journal is going to have a story tomorrow which is going to reference the relationship between reduced benefits and how that actually improves the job figures because it creates urgency for people to well...find jobs. There is little doubt in looking back that the stimulus plan was effective, And Washington is in disagreement how the second plan should go. As a snap shot of right now....the question seems to be where are we.....at this point and what is needed to spend.

[*bfine32*]

(09-04-2020, 10:21 AM)Goalpost Wrote: So the monthly jobs report came out and it showed monthly unemployment dropped to 8.4 percent.  Still a big number but jobs have been rebounding seemingly ahead of the forecasts.  Couple things to note.  It is estimated that 5.2 million people are still restricted in going back to work because some states haven't fully opened up yet.  The Wall Street Journal is going to have a story tomorrow which is going to reference the relationship between reduced benefits and how that actually improves the job figures because it creates urgency for people to well...find jobs.  There is little doubt in looking back that the stimulus plan was effective,   And Washington is in disagreement how the second plan should go.  As a snap shot of right now....the question seems to be where are we.....at this point and what is needed to spend.

We need to incentivize working instead of unemployment.

[Belsnickel]

Economists were forecasting about this number of job gains. I saw some expected numbers of 1.35 million, and the number was 1.371 million, so pretty close. The big concern with these numbers is that it is a slow down in job growth.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/09/04/unemployment-rate-jobs-report-august-m-jobs-added/5710737002/

We saw almost 5 million gained in June, but about 1.8 in July and now 1.4 in August. We're also seeing some that were temporary layoffs become permanent layoffs.

As for what the WSJ will put out there, there is a correlation between reducing the maximum time for unemployment benefits and increasing job finding rates (Filges, T., Jonassen, A.B. and Jørgensen, A.‐M.K. (2018), Reducing unemployment benefit duration to increase job finding rates: a systematic review. Campbell Systematic Reviews, 14: 1-194. doi:10.4073/csr.2018.2). The problem right now is that the supply of jobs isn't there to meet the demand of jobs because the demand on those employers isn't strong. It's a vicious loop, to be quite honest.

[fredtoast]

(09-04-2020, 10:37 AM)bfine32 Wrote: We need to incentivize working instead of unemployment.

How about this incentive.  You can't draw unemployment if your job returns and employment is offered to you.

[*bfine32*]

(09-04-2020, 10:44 AM)fredtoast Wrote: How about this incentive.  You can't draw unemployment if your job returns and employment is offered to you.

Great starting place, but I fear many will claim "unsafe" while there's still an incentive to stay home or "under employment".

Please don't try the usual twist and say 'bfine wants folks to risk their health".

I don not. If you cannot work you get unemployment. I see no need for added incentives.

Now provide the front line workers with incentives and we may get a little more becoming less "high risk".

[fredtoast]

(09-04-2020, 10:49 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Great starting place, but I fear many will claim "unsafe" while there's still an incentive to stay home or "under employment".

Are there not rules or guidelines about the safety of going back to work?   I would think that if the state says it is safe to reopen and go back to work then people either have to go back to work or give up unemployment benefits.

If someon drawing unemployment refuss to go back to work just because they claim it is unsafe do they still get to draw unemployment?

[Belsnickel]

(09-04-2020, 10:58 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Are there not rules or guidelines about the safety of going back to work?   I would think that if the state says it is safe to reopen and go back to work then people either have to go back to work or give up unemployment benefits.

If someon drawing unemployment refuss to go back to work just because they claim it is unsafe do they still get to draw unemployment?

No. That would end their unemployment benefits. Since the employer from whom they were separated to initiate the unemployment payments is liable to the state for paying more while they have folks drawing unemployment, they are incentivized to notify the state of that situation which would cut them off.

[*Nately120*]

(09-04-2020, 10:37 AM)bfine32 Wrote: We need to incentivize working instead of unemployment.

Seems logical, but any suggestion outside of reducing unemployment or welfare is going to be unpopular. 

[fredtoast]

(09-04-2020, 04:33 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Seems logical, but any suggestion outside of reducing unemployment or welfare is going to be unpopular. 

I don't know who would complain.  The money paid out in welfare and unemployment does not stay in the hands of the poor.  They spend it so it is injected into the economy.  The 3 trillion dollars from the first Coronavirus relief package is the only reason the stock market is at a record high despite so many businesses being shut down and so many people out of work.  And 90% of that is now in the accounts of the top 10% of the wealthiest people in America.

The federal deficit is like an ATM for the wealthy elite.  The more money the government gives poor people the richer the wealthy elite get.

[*Nately120*]

(09-04-2020, 06:12 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I don't know who would complain.  The money paid out in welfare and unemployment does not stay in the hands of the poor.  They spend it so it is injected into the economy.  The 3 trillion dollars from the first Coronavirus relief package is the only reason the stock market is at a record high despite so many businesses being shut down and so many people out of work.  And 90% of that is now in the accounts of the top 10% of the wealthiest people in America.

The federal deficit is like an ATM for the wealthy elite.  The more money the government gives poor people the richer the wealthy elite get.

I'm aware, but I didn't say people would be logical about it.