Latest Polling Since Trump verdict in NY from 3 polling sites

[Luvnit2]

We are now less than 5 months out until November 5th. Many are wondering what the conviction of Trump in NY will have on the election. It appears not much thus far. When do you start paying attention to polling, if ever. I understand, November 5th will determine the POTUS and Congress.

I included 3 sites for review.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
Trump up 1.1% Nationally

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/
Polling by states. Biggest surprise is Trump and Biden are tied in Virginia. Trump is up in Georgia, NC, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and down in Wisconsin.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls

Shows nationally and also state by state. Trump is up slightly (dead heat) Nationally only .5%. He leads in majority of swing states.

Some of these sites as you page through them also show a lot of underlining data on different voting groups.

Democrats normally outgain Republicans with fund raising. I am interested to see how. the DNC did in May and moving forward. Trump had a huge May and is headed to SF of all places this weekend to fundraise with tech donors. This dd not happen in 2016 nor 2020.

Thoughts?

[*pally*]

The most telling stat in many of these polls is Biden is leading among LIKELY voters

[Mike M (the other one)]

(06-07-2024, 02:06 PM)pally Wrote: The most telling stat in many of these polls is Biden is leading among LIKELY voters

?

[FormerlyBengalRugby]

(06-07-2024, 04:05 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: ?

The mail in ballots already filled out for the fictional, dead, and illegal aliens voters.

[Luvnit2]

(06-07-2024, 02:06 PM)pally Wrote: The most telling stat in many of these polls is Biden is leading among LIKELY voters

There are different polling sites and methods. Are you referring to National polls or to all of the swing state polls? For reference, Biden simply can't win if he loses Nationally as he carried the National vote by 7 million votes in 2020.

Also, the swing states as always will determine the winner. In 2020 Biden, won Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania. As of now, Trump is leading outside the margin of error on average of state polls in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia.

Biden is also trailing in Pa., & Michigan outside the margin of error. The underlying issues say in those swing state polls Trump has gained with Black, Hispanic and under 30 voters. Those voters may all come home, but that is no guarantee.

Also, in swing states voters list their decision will be based on in order below:

Economy
Inflation
Border Security
Crime
Abortion

Long way to go, lots can happen, but it appears if election was tomorrow, Trump wins and wins big.

[Luvnit2]

(06-07-2024, 04:09 PM)FormerlyBengalRugby Wrote: The mail in ballots already filled out for the fictional, dead, and illegal aliens voters.



Democrats will claim no issue with election integrity in 2020. On other hand, it appears RNC has already hired thousands of lawyers in swing states to start the watchful eye now, versus just election day. Red states are purging the voter rolls to ensure accuracy.

The lawyers in swing states are also verifying voters' eligibility, this is reason RNC hired them now. 

My opinion will be a lot tougher for anyone to cheat to cheat on either side in 2024. Laura Trump has said every red county in every swing state is already purging illegal voters. Then, the lawyers are being used to go into blue counties in swing states and verify their voters.

Much different scenario than in 2020.

[Luvnit2]

Has anyone seen a bump in the swing state polls since the Trump conviction in NY?

I have noticed something big; Trump's fundraising has gone off the chart. He raised 33.5 million in a west coast swing, over 12 million in SF.

Has Biden's fundraising increased since the conviction?

[Luvnit2]

I say don't just look at the polls, look at the underlying issues voters care about. The far left recently got a wakeup call in Europe due to illegal immigration spiraling out of control. Bill Maher shares his views on Biden's chances of reelection.

"Voters keep saying over and over again we are not comfortable with this level of immigration. I understand why. It doesn't make you a racist to say that," Maher said.


Maher went on to cite a poll that showed "64% of Latinos" support giving the president authority to shut down the border and that "62% of registered voters" would deport all illegal immigrants in the U.S.

"Yeah, people hate immigrants," Stein reacted.

"They don't hate immigrants!" Maher fired back.

Maher later said, "The question that Democrats don't seem to be able to have the balls to answer is just how many is too many? And like, infinity is the answer- if you don't give that answer, you're a racist. That's their essential problem with this issue."


https://www.foxnews.com/media/bill-maher-sounds-alarm-immigration-chaos-itll-get-dems-f-ed-election-day

Bill Maher sounds alarm on immigration chaos: It'll get Dems 'f---ed on Election Day'
The HBO host brought up this week's European elections and said Democrats are facing a similarly angry electorate over the issue of immigration.



Voters in Europe, particularly in Germany and France roundly rejected far-left policies in the European Union Parliament elections, where immigration was top of mind as the crisis has unfolded in recent years.

"Voters again for the European Parliament said we do not like this much immigration," Maher said.

"And then they all stand back and go, 'We don't want to be called a racist. So we will not make a move on to immigration.' It's going to get them f---ed on Election Day. It's happening. It's happening in Europe right now. That proves it in Europe, and it's going to happen here in America. It happened with Brexit. It's going to happen again," Maher insisted.