NYT: Russians paid Afghans to kill American troops

[GMDino]

(06-30-2020, 09:45 PM)bfine32 Wrote: I hate when a political party won't let something go. 

I think Fred more meant that the Hillary clip is taken completely without context and cut to imply something that wasn't said more than the fact that the right keeps using it all these years later.

[fredtoast]

(06-30-2020, 10:26 PM)GMDino Wrote: I think Fred more meant that the Hillary clip is taken completely without context and cut to imply something that wasn't said more than the fact that the right keeps using it all these years later.

Exactly.

I cite the results of the seven in-depth investigations conducted by Republican and Bi-Partisan Congressional committees and what do I get as a response?

"Yeah, but what about this 10 second clip taken out of context that Fox Network played a thousand times?  Who needs in-depth investigations when you have shallow propaganda that supports exactly what you want to believe?"

[Dill]

(06-30-2020, 08:09 PM)michaelsean Wrote: I’m just going to jump to the end here  with some deep political analysis.Russia sucks. They will always suck anyone who trusts them is a moron.

Ok Mike. We've heard your view on this.  But Putin disagrees. He says Russia is great and the US sucks.

He is the leader of the largest country in the world, after all, and a nuclear power. So he must be a smart guy.

When there are "conflicting views" on a subject like this, how can the rest of us decide who is more credible?

[Dill]

Another complication:

NATO officials say they were briefed on Russian bounties on US soldiers in Afghanistan — even though Trump claims he wasn't https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-bounty-us-soldiers-afghanistan-nato-officials-briefed-trump-denies-2020-6

"We were briefed [by the Americans] on a potential threat to our troops in Afghanistan from operatives potentially linked to the Russian intelligence services," one NATO military intelligence official told Insider on Monday.

"There is no indication that our troops — or any non-US NATO troops — have been targeted in these attacks, but all NATO services with casualties in Afghanistan over the past two years are currently checking for any connections."

Two other NATO officials — who represent countries with troops who regularly support the NATO mission in Afghanistan — confirmed similar briefings. Twenty-six coalition members were killed in Afghanistan in 2019.

So our NATO allies watched as the US did nothing about this, and the American people did not know.  
Their troops were also in harm's way.

Trump has been outed, so now voters need to watch how he responds. Will he continue to do nothing, perhaps even believing Putin over the CIA and other intel agencies (as in Finland), or will he be forced to "get tough"?

Will Congress finally have to respond?  

[fredtoast]

When this story first started breaking I didn't think it would be much.

But it is really blowing up. I think it is because it involves the military who are supposed to be cherished by the Donald.

[Belsnickel]

(07-01-2020, 06:31 PM)fredtoast Wrote: When this story first started breaking I didn't think it would be much.

But it is really blowing up. I think it is because it involves the military who are supposed to be cherished by the Donald.

It still won't be much. He has disrespected the military from his 2016 campaign on. His voters won't care.

[Dill]

(07-01-2020, 07:26 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: It still won't be much. He has disrespected the military from his 2016 campaign on. His voters won't care.

Some of them will. And more independents. And more and more military. (Hope Bfine weighs in at some point.)

Once again Trump believes Putin over his own intel, as in Finland, but this time his denials are accompanied by segments of CNN and MSNBC interviewing the mothers of recently slain US soldiers. More stories to come about whether any and if so which deaths are connected to the program.

His claim that the bounty story is another "fake news" hoax commits him to doing nothing about it.  

Fully Briefed' Trump Calls Russia Bounty Report 'Fake News Media Hoax'
https://www.voanews.com/usa/fully-briefed-trump-calls-russia-bounty-report-fake-news-media-hoax

In a series of early morning tweets Wednesday, the president called media reports about the intelligence “just another HOAX!” and said the source for the original report in The New York Times “probably does not even exist.”

Trump also cited a statement from the Pentagon that military officials have "no corroborating evidence." 

"Do people still not understand that this is all a made up Fake News Media Hoax started to slander me & the Republican Party" the president wrote on Twitter. "I was never briefed because any info that they may have had did not rise to that level."

As we learn that NATO nations were briefed on this threat to their soldiers, and the NSC went forward preparing options for response, the "did-not-rise-to-that-level" claim will be denounced as patently false.

Even most Republican Senators recognize that US HAS to respond somehow to this now widespread report. If Trump doesn't assume the burden/direction of national defense here, I'm pretty sure Congress will be drafting legislation that meets this need. Trump will look even less incontrol and more competent has tries to manage this failure to protect during a pandemic--another failure to protect.

Not a minor scandal. And pro-Military Republican Senators know that.

[Belsnickel]

(07-02-2020, 04:44 AM)Dill Wrote: Some of them will. And more independents. And more and more military. (Hope Bfine weighs in at some point.)

Once again Trump believes Putin over his own intel, as in Finland, but this time his denials are accompanied by segments of CNN and MSNBC interviewing the mothers of recently slain US soldiers. More stories to come about whether any and if so which deaths are connected to the program.

His claim that the bounty story is another "fake news" hoax commits him to doing nothing about it.  

Fully Briefed' Trump Calls Russia Bounty Report 'Fake News Media Hoax'
https://www.voanews.com/usa/fully-briefed-trump-calls-russia-bounty-report-fake-news-media-hoax

In a series of early morning tweets Wednesday, the president called media reports about the intelligence “just another HOAX!” and said the source for the original report in The New York Times “probably does not even exist.”

Trump also cited a statement from the Pentagon that military officials have "no corroborating evidence." 

"Do people still not understand that this is all a made up Fake News Media Hoax started to slander me & the Republican Party" the president wrote on Twitter. "I was never briefed because any info that they may have had did not rise to that level."

As we learn that NATO nations were briefed on this threat to their soldiers, and the NSC went forward preparing options for response, the "did-not-rise-to-that-level" claim will be denounced as patently false.

Even most Republican Senators recognize that US HAS to respond somehow to this now widespread report. If Trump doesn't assume the burden/direction of national defense here, I'm pretty sure Congress will be drafting legislation that meets this need. Trump will look even less incontrol and more competent has tries to manage this failure to protect during a pandemic--another failure to protect.

Not a minor scandal. And pro-Military Republican Senators know that.

You'll have to excuse me if I have little hope in the people having those critical thinking skills or in Republican officials having backbones. How may times do we have to look at a scandal and go "this will be the one that is his downfall!" before we realize that we are Charlie Brow trying to kick a football being held by Lucy. The majority of voters consume their one-sided media and don't even know what's going on. We've seen this play out in studies where, using Fox as an example, the people don't even know the basic facts of a situation because of the disinformation campaigns. The Republican Senators have proven themselves time and time again to put the party over the country, and if there is even a whiff of insubordination, McConnell swoops in and blocks any possible efforts to have legitimate oversight as their constitutional duty requires.

[Dill]

(07-02-2020, 06:55 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: You'll have to excuse me if I have little hope in the people having those critical thinking skills or in Republican officials having backbones. How may times do we have to look at a scandal and go "this will be the one that is his downfall!" before we realize that we are Charlie Brow trying to kick a football being held by Lucy. The majority of voters consume their one-sided media and don't even know what's going on. We've seen this play out in studies where, using Fox as an example, the people don't even know the basic facts of a situation because of the disinformation campaigns. The Republican Senators have proven themselves time and time again to put the party over the country, and if there is even a whiff of insubordination, McConnell swoops in and blocks any possible efforts to have legitimate oversight as their constitutional duty requires.

Your skepticism has been well founded in the past, though I don't recall anyone on this MB or in the news actually saying "this one will be his downfall," though during the first year there was always speculation surrounding his scandals.

You are, of course, right about "the base's" habits of news consumption, and the Senate's fear of Trump.
And you could very well be right about this scandal.  Some Republican Senators are beginning to follow the Trump line--partially. They are harping on the "unverified" claim. They know that one thread, if drawn sufficiently, can unravel Trump's seeming mantel of invulnerability. And theirs.

Senate Republicans defend Trump's response on Russian bounties
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/505348-senate-republicans-defend-trumps-response-on-russian-bounties

But I see elements of the Bounty scandal which, in conjunction with the COVID pandemic, make it particularly hard to manage. You can read longer posts, so here goes.

First, "real" Benghazi. In effect, a continuing STAND DOWN ORDER under public scrutiny. The public discussion has already moved from "whether" Trump got the intel to whether he thought it actionable. It's now about his judgment. The substance of the scandal is such that willful neglect can be directly tied to soldiers' deaths, or the increased likelihood thereof.  And it looks like a pattern of deference to Putin. Democrats will hammer home the fact that Trump killed an Iranian general on weaker intel.  Attempts to put this back on the Intel community for "misleading" Trump will produce yet more damaging leaks. 

Second, the intel did not originate with the NYT and WaPo, which weakens the claim this all began with the newspapers. It's going to be "deep state" vs parents of the bereaved in public disucssion. Attempts to put this back on the Intel community for "misleading" Trump will produce more damaging leaks.

Third, the 23 Republican Senators up for reelection are NOT all invulnerable on this issue. This will be discussed in local news papers and on local news and raised in state debates. It will be in local campaign adds. "When Trump puts Putin over troops, and Senator X supports Trump, Senator X puts Trump over the troops." Even "Moscow Mitch" cannot rest easy.  Further, unlike Trump's base, many Senators genuinely see the problem here, and have close ties with the military. I doubt there will the kind of party unanimity over this there was over impeachment.

Fourth, the US military and families. The Trump's response to the bounty will be discussed on military bases and ships at sea. It will be the substance of many long distance conversations between military members and family. Letters will appear in the Stars and Stripes, to be read even by those reliant primarily on Fox and Rush. Senators and Representatives from each state will have to present this constituency with some position on the scandal. "Trump's still got your back" some may claim, while trying to explain a vote against Russia sanctions. "And Putin's" their opponents will respond. Military families look at politics affecting the military much more intensely than non-military. Military mothers especially.

I.e., People who accept "both sides do it" in response to the Ukraine scandal will suddenly scrutinize more closely the side actually in power when they have family in bad places. We've already seen a similar effect in the drop of Trump support among the elderly, who pay closer attention to his handling of the pandemic.

3 and 4 above will be moving people beyond "one-sided media" to get more info. This scandal won't be put to bed before August. Trump supporters on this board were willing to defend his misogyny and immigration policies and other scandals. And Trump defenders-not-supporters were always ready to attack Dem critics of Trump. If we don't see that recur, that absence could indicate the difficulty I impute to this scandal at this moment.

I argue, then, that "this time it's different," though by that I don't mean that this ONE will be Trump's downfall. But it is one which opens the bubble more than previous ones. I am making a "conjunctural" argument, there is a conjuncture of events coming together to drive down Trump support.  People will be considering Trump's bombastic defense of his intel judgment as they also listen to his bombastic defense of Trump's COVID response amidst exponentially rising case numbers. Those who wanted conservative judges and the defunding of Planned Parent will remain unmoved. But that's really barely half of Trump's base.