Oil Surplus Predicted This Decade

[NATI BENGALS]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/big-oil-given-stark-warning-as-a-major-supply-surplus-expected-by-2030.html
“The IEA said this would result in levels of spare capacity not seen before — other than at the height of the Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020.”
“This report's projections, based on the latest data, show a major supply surplus emerging this decade,”


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Slams-IEA-for-Dangerous-Forecast-of-Peak-Oil-Demand-by-2030.html
“OPEC Slams IEA for “Dangerous” Forecast of Peak Oil Demand by 2030”

We have the technology to get away from fossil fuels. Unsurprisingly some people (OPEC) would prefer we didn’t.

I remember when we ran out of storage space and the price of oil went negative when we had disastrous leadership. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52350082

Thank god we don’t have anybody coming in to power whose solution to all our problems is drill baby drill. Or anybody who might owe favors because their son in law got 2 billion dollars from one of the countries that founded OPEC who would prefer we stay dependent on oil…

[SunsetBengal]

Great, so in a few years we can have cheap gas without the specter of *mean tweets*

[NATI BENGALS]

(06-14-2024, 08:42 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Great, so in a few years we can have cheap gas without the specter of *mean tweets*

Doubt it. They will still be gouging.

Or if Trump wins it might be Mad Max.

[Stewy]

It isn't just OPEC that is predicting max Oil for years out much longer than IEA, most of the big bank lenders are doing the same. Why? Because EV's are becoming a bust, US buyers don't want them. It's becoming clear that they are more expensive and just as dirty as combustion engines because electricity is still very dirty.

On top of that Renewable installation is behind estimates due to supply chain and rare earth mineral and copper shortages slowing down progress. And on top of that the US energy grid CANNOT support an EV future. Period - no question. Because the US energy grid is controlled by local utilities and not the Fed, there is very little the Fed can do to fix this issue aside from providing loans and incentives to encourage local utilities to upgrade their grids. Biden has started down this path, but the amount their offering is a joke and not within 1% of the amount needed to get us to an EV future. I really this isn't just about the US, but as the US goes, so goes the world. 3rd world countries produce the most pollution, thus if the US can't get it's act in gear, then what of the 3rd world?

IEA is out to lunch and has an agenda that it is highly unrealistic considering the above. They won't move their peak oil outlook beyond 2030, until they're forced to do so in 2029.

These are not simple issues. One can't just say "let's just do it". Sure! Where's the money coming from? The materials? The manpower? On top of that renewables have the same decommissioning and pollution problems as oil and gas. Renewables wear out. Need replaced or fixed, all of which will require more materials and all those materials take energy produce.

The good news is that scientists and industry are innovating efficiency and progressive break throughs every day. But the technology (battery power, storage, efficiency, upgraded power grid, etc.) we need for an EV future simply doesn't exist yet. Thus the IEA's estimation of peak oil in 2030 is ridiculous.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(06-14-2024, 11:58 AM)Stewy Wrote: It isn't just OPEC that is predicting max Oil for years out much longer than IEA, most of the big bank lenders are doing the same.  Why?  Because EV's are becoming a bust, US buyers don't want them.  It's becoming clear that they are more expensive and just as dirty as combustion engines because electricity is still very dirty.  

On top of that Renewable installation is behind estimates due to supply chain and rare earth mineral and copper shortages slowing down progress.  And on top of that the US energy grid CANNOT support an EV future.  Period - no question.  Because the US energy grid is controlled by local utilities and not the Fed, there is very little the Fed can do to fix this issue aside from providing loans and incentives to encourage local utilities to upgrade their grids.  Biden has started down this path, but the amount their offering is a joke and not within 1% of the amount needed to get us to an EV future.  I really this isn't just about the US, but as the US goes, so goes the world.  3rd world countries produce the most pollution, thus if the US can't get it's act in gear, then what of the 3rd world?

IEA is out to lunch and has an agenda that it is highly unrealistic considering the above.  They won't move their peak oil outlook beyond 2030, until they're forced to do so in 2029.

These are not simple issues.  One can't just say "let's just do it".  Sure!  Where's the money coming from?  The materials?  The manpower?  On top of that renewables have the same decommissioning and pollution problems as oil and gas.  Renewables wear out.  Need replaced or fixed, all of which will require more materials and all those materials take energy produce.  

The good news is that scientists and industry are innovating efficiency and progressive break throughs every day.  But the technology (battery power, storage, efficiency, upgraded power grid, etc.) we need for an EV future simply doesn't exist yet.  Thus the IEA's estimation of peak oil in 2030 is ridiculous.

Came here for this response.  We've raised the topic of the grid not being able to handle EV's several times in the past.  We have rolling blackouts here during the summer just because of people using their AC, and charging an EV is equivalent, if not more energy intensive than running an AC.  I would add to your substantive post that EV's are also extremely labor intensive to produce, i.e. the rare earth mining and other raw materials needed have a substantive carbon footprint of their own.  Not to mention that the batteries will wear out, cost almost as much as the entire car and are highly toxic waste once they're no longer usable.

[Luvnit2]

(06-14-2024, 04:31 AM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/big-oil-given-stark-warning-as-a-major-supply-surplus-expected-by-2030.html
“The IEA said this would result in levels of spare capacity not seen before — other than at the height of the Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020.”
“This report's projections, based on the latest data, show a major supply surplus emerging this decade,”


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Slams-IEA-for-Dangerous-Forecast-of-Peak-Oil-Demand-by-2030.html
“OPEC Slams IEA for “Dangerous” Forecast of Peak Oil Demand by 2030”

We have the technology to get away from fossil fuels. Unsurprisingly some people (OPEC) would prefer we didn’t.

I remember when we ran out of storage space and the price of oil went negative when we had disastrous leadership. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52350082

Thank god we don’t have anybody coming in to power whose solution to all our problems is drill baby drill. Or anybody who might owe favors because their son in law got 2 billion dollars from one of the countries that founded OPEC who would prefer we stay dependent on oil…

Great, we will have cheaper gas prices, but will be dead due to climate change according to climate activists from the left.

I suggest you take a poll of the people who live in Nevada and Arizona to see if they would rather have Trump's gas prices or Biden's gas prices? Biden just took more oil from our reserve; God help us if he gets us into a war with Russia, we need gas to power our vehicles and planes.

His reserve steal was to take gas prices down in the northeast. They don't have the means to get extra gas to Nevada or Arizona, thus the higher-than-average prices in these 2 swing states. I am sure they are thrilled to know sometime in the next 10 years oil may be cheaper.

[Luvnit2]

(06-14-2024, 09:27 AM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Doubt it. They will still be gouging.

Or if Trump wins it might be Mad Max.

Do Democrats ever take responsibility for their failed policies? Biden put green energy and subsequent rise in oil prices over inflation and the economy.

Your answer is always someone else's fault. Yet, Obama got rich off politics, Biden got rich off politics. Neither one created major jobs in the public sector, their goal was to make themselves rich only.

A businessman and his family were rich prior to entering politics. They have employed millions of people of the past 45+ years, yet they are the bad guys. The job creators are the bad guys in your eyes.

Do you know who is being killed by Biden's 20% inflation in less than 4 years? It the low income who had trouble getting by with Trump's 5% inflation over 4 years. Their financial woes are real and Joe Biden's and Democrats open borders took money to help them and gave it to illegal immigrants. They get it, they lived it under Trump and now under Biden so your attacks using the liberal talking points don't cut it.

Human beings in the US are made to suffer because Biden and Democrats chose to open the border. The inflation is not price gouging, prices went up because the cost of goods and labor costs went up. California making fast food restaurants pay $20 an hour is insane and makes no business sense. Of course, to stay in business prices for fast food is going to go up significantly and jobs will be lost.

Maybe once, take off your liberal tin foil hat and use your common sense. You may be surprised what you would discover if you opened your mind.

[FormerlyBengalRugby]

(06-14-2024, 12:35 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Great, we will have cheaper gas prices, but will be dead due to climate change according to climate activists from the left.

I suggest you take a poll of the people who live in Nevada and Arizona to see if they would rather have Trump's gas prices or Biden's gas prices? Biden just took more oil from our reserve; God help us if he gets us into a war with Russia, we need gas to power our vehicles and planes.

His reserve steal was to take gas prices down in the northeast. They don't have the means to get extra gas to Nevada or Arizona, thus the higher-than-average prices in these 2 swing states. I am sure they are thrilled to know sometime in the next 10 years oil may be cheaper.

[Luvnit2]

Here is a look at gasoline prices for regular gas [b][/b] state by state in June 2024.

Add $.60 to $1.00 for higher grade gasoline. Note highest prices are out west and those needing premium fuel are paying over $5.00 a gallon. In contrast cost of gasoline in January 2021 was $2.39 a gallon for regular. Now nationally site at $3.42 a gallon Nationally or a 47% increase since Biden took office. This includes prices slightly dropping recently.

People can't wait 10 years for gasoline prices, inflation and the economy to get better. Biden had his shot and Bidenomics sucked for most voters.

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/personal-finance/gas-prices-by-state/

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/national-gas-prices-double-since-biden-took-office

National gas prices have doubled since Biden took office (in 2022)
The Biden administration denies that its policies could be contributing to the inflation surge

On Jan. 20, 2021, the average price for a gallon of regular gas nationwide was approximately $2.39. As of Saturday, the price for a gallon of gas has skyrocketed to $4.81, up five cents from Friday, according to AAA.

[Stewy]

(06-14-2024, 12:25 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: Came here for this response.  We've raised the topic of the grid not being able to handle EV's several times in the past.  We have rolling blackouts here during the summer just because of people using their AC, and charging an EV is equivalent, if not more energy intensive than running an AC.  I would add to your substantive post that EV's are also extremely labor intensive to produce, i.e. the rare earth mining and other raw materials needed have a substantive carbon footprint of their own.  Not to mention that the batteries will wear out, cost almost as much as the entire car and are highly toxic waste once they're no longer usable.

Good points and conveniently forgotten or not realized by people on both sides of the issue.  This is where we need advancement and innovation in battery technology.  But like any innovation, it doesn't come for free.  it has to be valued and money has to be thrown at it and if not, researches and scientists can only do so much.  This is innovation that NEEDS to happen, so at least money has been supporting it more lately.

Additionally Fusion is coming along, but I say were at least 20 years from an efficient scaled up model that provides real power.  And one thing people don't realize about fusion, is that it produces nuclear waste, but like fission reactors.  I'd say 95%+ of the population doesn't even know that little point.

Anyway....baby steps.  You can't force progress or innovation.  You can support it, but you can't dictate it.

[FormerlyBengalRugby]

(06-14-2024, 04:34 PM)Stewy Wrote: Good points and conveniently forgotten or not realized by people on both sides of the issue.  This is where we need advancement and innovation in battery technology.  But like any innovation, it doesn't come for free.  it has to be valued and money has to be thrown at it and if not, researches and scientists can only do so much.  This is innovation that NEEDS to happen, so at least money has been supporting it more lately.

Additionally Fusion is coming along, but I say were at least 20 years from an efficient scaled up model that provides real power.  And one thing people don't realize about fusion, is that it produces nuclear waste, but like fission reactors.  I'd say 95%+ of the population doesn't even know that little point.

Anyway....baby steps.  You can't force progress or innovation.  You can support it, but you can't dictate it.

I have been reading about fly-wheels, which seem to be more cost efficient. But then I recall an episode of Myth-Busters where a massive flywheel became terrifying...

But assume if buried deep enough underground, huge expense, some danger could be mitigated.

Maybe a discussion for another thread...

[Stewy]

(06-14-2024, 04:49 PM)FormerlyBengalRugby Wrote: I have been reading about fly-wheels, which seem to be more cost efficient. But then I recall an episode of Myth-Busters where a massive flywheel became terrifying...

But assume if buried deep enough underground, huge expense, some danger could be mitigated.

Maybe a discussion for another thread...

Ok I had to look this up, so for anyone interested in what Rugby is talking about - google - Flywheel Energy Storage  <-- Add mythbusters to that if you want that instead

[NATI BENGALS]

(06-14-2024, 12:49 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Do Democrats ever take responsibility for their failed policies? Biden put green energy and subsequent rise in oil prices over inflation and the economy.

Your answer is always someone else's fault. Yet, Obama got rich off politics, Biden got rich off politics. Neither one created major jobs in the public sector, their goal was to make themselves rich only.

A businessman and his family were rich prior to entering politics. They have employed millions of people of the past 45+ years, yet they are the bad guys. The job creators are the bad guys in your eyes.

Do you know who is being killed by Biden's 20% inflation in less than 4 years? It the low income who had trouble getting by with Trump's 5% inflation over 4 years. Their financial woes are real and Joe Biden's and Democrats open borders took money to help them and gave it to illegal immigrants. They get it, they lived it under Trump and now under Biden so your attacks using the liberal talking points don't cut it.

Human beings in the US are made to suffer because Biden and Democrats chose to open the border. The inflation is not price gouging, prices went up because the cost of goods and labor costs went up. California making fast food restaurants pay $20 an hour is insane and makes no business sense. Of course, to stay in business prices for fast food is going to go up significantly and jobs will be lost.

Maybe once, take off your liberal tin foil hat and use your common sense. You may be surprised what you would discover if you opened your mind.

Sure bud. If only I parroted the right wing media talking points. Then we would be on the same page.

So how’s this fit in to your narrative?

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/11/economy/oil-industry-profits-under-biden/index.html

“The top five US-based oil and gas companies by market cap, according to S&P Global — ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (CPP), EOG Resources (EOG) and Schlumberger (SLB) — have raked in more than $250 billion in profits between 2021 and 2023. That’s a 160% jump compared to the first three years of the pro-big-oil Trump administration, according to calculations by CNN.”

“According to the US Energy Information Administration, the US produced more crude oil than ever in 2023, beating the previous record set in 2019 — and Investors have been richly rewarded. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), which tracks the performance of the largest oil and gas companies, is up more than 100% since Biden’s inauguration.“

[NATI BENGALS]

(06-14-2024, 11:58 AM)Stewy Wrote: It isn't just OPEC that is predicting max Oil for years out much longer than IEA, most of the big bank lenders are doing the same. Why? Because EV's are becoming a bust, US buyers don't want them. It's becoming clear that they are more expensive and just as dirty as combustion engines because electricity is still very dirty.

On top of that Renewable installation is behind estimates due to supply chain and rare earth mineral and copper shortages slowing down progress. And on top of that the US energy grid CANNOT support an EV future. Period - no question. Because the US energy grid is controlled by local utilities and not the Fed, there is very little the Fed can do to fix this issue aside from providing loans and incentives to encourage local utilities to upgrade their grids. Biden has started down this path, but the amount their offering is a joke and not within 1% of the amount needed to get us to an EV future. I really this isn't just about the US, but as the US goes, so goes the world. 3rd world countries produce the most pollution, thus if the US can't get it's act in gear, then what of the 3rd world?

IEA is out to lunch and has an agenda that it is highly unrealistic considering the above. They won't move their peak oil outlook beyond 2030, until they're forced to do so in 2029.

These are not simple issues. One can't just say "let's just do it". Sure! Where's the money coming from? The materials? The manpower? On top of that renewables have the same decommissioning and pollution problems as oil and gas. Renewables wear out. Need replaced or fixed, all of which will require more materials and all those materials take energy produce.

The good news is that scientists and industry are innovating efficiency and progressive break throughs every day. But the technology (battery power, storage, efficiency, upgraded power grid, etc.) we need for an EV future simply doesn't exist yet. Thus the IEA's estimation of peak oil in 2030 is ridiculous.

It definitely takes investment. And it is happening.

I wouldn’t call EVs a bust. I think we are at the tip of the iceberg and it’s accelerating. I don’t think hybrids and EVs are going anywhere, their adoption will continue to expand.
https://www.iea.org/news/the-worlds-electric-car-fleet-continues-to-grow-strongly-with-2024-sales-set-to-reach-17-million
“The number of electric cars sold globally in the first three months of this year is roughly equivalent to the number sold in all of 2020.”

And China is pumping them out.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/14/chinese-automakers-overtake-us-rivals-in-sales-for-the-first-time.html

We haven’t seen mass adoption of alternative fuel tractor trailers yet. Which I hope isn’t too far off. That will be another blow to oil demand.

I like my hybrid. But I would never want to have to plug my vehicle in for hours to get range. I’ve got my fingers crossed hydrogen takes off. Able to refuel in minutes and get hundreds of miles of range, and still have my instant acceleration with my electric motors.

[Stewy]

(06-14-2024, 08:57 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: It definitely takes investment. And it is happening.

I wouldn’t call EVs a bust. I think we are at the tip of the iceberg and it’s accelerating. I don’t think hybrids and EVs are going anywhere, their adoption will continue to expand.
https://www.iea.org/news/the-worlds-electric-car-fleet-continues-to-grow-strongly-with-2024-sales-set-to-reach-17-million
“The number of electric cars sold globally in the first three months of this year is roughly equivalent to the number sold in all of 2020.”

And China is pumping them out.  
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/14/chinese-automakers-overtake-us-rivals-in-sales-for-the-first-time.html

We haven’t seen mass adoption of alternative fuel tractor trailers yet. Which I hope isn’t too far off. That will be another blow to oil demand.

I like my hybrid. But I would never want to have to plug my vehicle in for hours to get range. I’ve got my fingers crossed hydrogen takes off. Able to refuel in minutes and get hundreds of miles of range, and still have my instant acceleration with my electric motors.

Hope and reality are two different things.  Battery limitations and supply chain issues are problems that are not going away any time soon and hope won't fix them.  The current estimates of peak demand COMPLETELY ignore these factors, thus why I mention them.

[NATI BENGALS]

(06-14-2024, 10:20 PM)Stewy Wrote: Hope and reality are two different things.  Battery limitations and supply chain issues are problems that are not going away any time soon and hope won't fix them.  The current estimates of peak demand COMPLETELY ignore these factors, thus why I mention them.

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/iea-expects-global-clean-energy-investment-hit-2-trillion-2024-2024-06-06/

Two trillion dollars worth of clean energy investments just this year alone. Out pacing fossil fuel investments 2-1.

https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/trends-in-electric-cars

Nearly 1 out of every 5 cars sold in 2023 was an EV. A 35% y/y increase.

The train is just getting started but it has left the station and is rolling down the track.


The battery on my 2017 hybrid was my biggest concern. I’ve been pleasantly surprised. Zero issues, I thought maybe I would see a little decline by now, but I haven’t noticed anything. With as much R&D that has been taking place. I have to imagine battery technology now is way better than what I got seven years ago.