Libs eating Libs over Biden stance in Israel

[CJD]

(11-06-2023, 02:02 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: Some interesting positions here.  I have a few follow ups.  I see Trump "weakening" NATO raised a lot.  I don't know if that's necessarily the case.  I'm sure both of you could provide specific examples of this, but I also recall him castigating NATO members for not living up to the agreed upon defense budgets (Germany especially).  I do recall him warning Europe about Putin and his using his gas and heating oil supplies to hold them hostage..  Are you both referring to his being abrasive and turning our allies off because of that?  Because while I will certainly acknowledge that being the case my response to it is, where are they gonna go?  Is the POTUS being an ass who berates you publicly enough to throw your lot in with the China axis, including Iran, Russia and North Korea?  I would think not.  Go it alone as the EU?  Good luck with that.

I think the worst case for NATO under Trump is hard feelings that dissipate a few years into a more normal presidency.  Honestly, I think getting rid of NATO is a good idea.  By that I mean abandoning the name and it's cold war implications, and expanding the alliance to include democracies like Japan and South Korea, maybe even India is they can make some guarantees.  Call it something else, keep the same structure, agreements and guarantees.  I honestly think something as simple as a name change would go some ways towards making Russia less bellicose about the alliance.

The thing I was thinking of was the rumblings from White House aides and staff members saying Trump had privately discussed leaving NATO over the other NATO members not meeting their required defense spending.

Trump later mentioned that he did in fact threaten to leave NATO in private conversations in one of his meandering "Sir" speeches:

Quote:Someone said, “Sir!” Someone calls me Sir, that that shows me respect. He says, “would you leave us if we don’t pay our bills?” They hated my answer. I said, “Yeah, I would consider it.” They hated the answer Michael Powell. But if I said, “No, I won’t leave you. I promise you we will always protect you.” Then they will never pay their bills. So I said, “Yes, I will leave you.” You could see those checkbooks coming out for billions of dollars. They paid their bills. I think we will pick up in the next short while over $100 billion.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/trump-confirms-he-threatened-to-withdraw-from-nato/

Normally, I would have just brushed this off as Trump talking about all the things he plans to do but never does, but this was shortly after he did withdraw from the Paris Agreement and around the time he ended up withdrawing from the Iran deal.

Now, leaving NATO would have been a much larger step than leaving either of those agreements, but the precedent was there for him to just...leave international agreements if he didn't like them. And he claims he only threatened it to make them pay their share, but he still discussed the possibility, whether he would have actually done it or not is another question. Leaving NATO didn't feel like that big of a leap after those two withdrawals.

[*Nately120*]

Trump easily could have withdrawn us from NATO because it's easily framed under that "we need to put America first" and "why should we pay for others to _____" rhetoric.

[Belsnickel]

(11-06-2023, 02:02 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: Some interesting positions here.  I have a few follow ups.  I see Trump "weakening" NATO raised a lot.  I don't know if that's necessarily the case.  I'm sure both of you could provide specific examples of this, but I also recall him castigating NATO members for not living up to the agreed upon defense budgets (Germany especially).  I do recall him warning Europe about Putin and his using his gas and heating oil supplies to hold them hostage..  Are you both referring to his being abrasive and turning our allies off because of that?  Because while I will certainly acknowledge that being the case my response to it is, where are they gonna go?  Is the POTUS being an ass who berates you publicly enough to throw your lot in with the China axis, including Iran, Russia and North Korea?  I would think not.  Go it alone as the EU?  Good luck with that.

I think the worst case for NATO under Trump is hard feelings that dissipate a few years into a more normal presidency.  Honestly, I think getting rid of NATO is a good idea.  By that I mean abandoning the name and it's cold war implications, and expanding the alliance to include democracies like Japan and South Korea, maybe even India is they can make some guarantees.  Call it something else, keep the same structure, agreements and guarantees.  I honestly think something as simple as a name change would go some ways towards making Russia less bellicose about the alliance.

I'm thinking specifically of things like this: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/14/us/politics/nato-president-trump.html

There are ways to approach these things that don't alienate our allies. That, combined with Trump's apparent affinity for strongmen with autocratic tendencies really makes me concerned for all of that.

[Luvnit2]

More liberal threats in interview with Psaki.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/democrat-warns-jen-psaki-she-sees-great-trouble-biden-2024

Democrat warns Jen Psaki she sees 'great trouble' for Biden in 2024
Pramila Jayapal warns young people abandoning Biden over Israel stance

I predicted this summer Joe's poll numbers would tank due to his age, his policies on inflation, economy and immigration.

Now add in he has 2 voting blocks, Jews and Arab Americans whose vote hangs in the balance. A recent poll also said Trump now has 22% (he had 8% in 2020) of the black vote.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(11-06-2023, 12:32 PM)Dill Wrote: Would you vote for Trump instead of Biden?

Have said many times on here I never have and never will vote for Trump.

[Dill]

(11-06-2023, 01:24 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I actually agree with this. I think other nations were scared of Trump and his unpredictability. If Putin invaded Ukraine while Trump was president, it would be a roll of the dice whether Trump would have just sat there and let it happen, if he would have backed Ukraine, or if he just declared war on Russia and sent in ground troops or, worse, threats of nuclear war (I don't think the US government would ever allow him to launch them though, but you never know). Or, you know, Trump could have further weakened NATO, which would have benefitted Putin and emboldened him. It's really hard to say.

Trump supporters offer this as a positive of Trump's presidency, but what they either don't realize or refuse to admit is that it cuts both ways. Trump is extremely unpredictable internationally, which creates hesitation in our enemies, but he is also extremely unpredictable with our allies and domestically, which causes a lot of chaos in its own right. He created fluctuations in the stock market just by tweeting, after all.

Totally agree with the bolded, the flip side of the "Trump is unpredictable" argument. 

His erratic behavior has surely stoked more fear in allies than foes. 
Remember his Kim-like violent rhetoric towards NK suddenly became love letters to Kim
and two summits--enough legitimation to let Kim out of his box to be received by many other Asian nations.
--US "leadership" in reverse. Then T pulled out of the TPP and China filled the vacuum.

Pulling out from the Iran Deal damaged allies and adversaries alike. 
Two years of laborious, intense diplomacy eventually convinced China, GB, Germany, France, the EU Russia and Iran that
ALL would benefit from from this historic deal.  Then BOOM! The work of all those nations gone--with Iran in compliance!! 
France already had over a billion sunk into producing autos in Iran and prospect of expanding employment at home. PFFFT gone. 
The chance to expand internal opposition to Iranian regime also gone, as the hardliners were proven right--can't EVER trust the Great Satan,
leaving them firmly back in the saddle. Flip side of our own right, which insisted it's Iran that can never be trusted. 

China and Russia lost too, but there is a positive for them in the blow to US credibility and its negative effect on our allies.
Bad for the Iranian people and their moderates, but good for the hard line clerics and Rev. Guard. 

Now there's a war in the ME and Iran is only a few weeks from break out. 

What can allies and adversaries alike be thinking as polls show Trump ahead in swing states? 
Before the Hamas war, I'd have said China and Russia would love that, since Trump unpredictability tends to
harm US interests. Now I think the entire world outside MAGA shudders at the prospect of him back at
the helm, and backing Israel in the ME. 

[Dill]

(11-06-2023, 01:58 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I haven't kept up on Trump's take on Putin or Russia but I feel like he's been about as consistent as he can be regarding his admiration and respect for him.  I take his assertions that he wouldn't have allowed this on his watch more as a loving parent or spouse would straighten Putin out with tough love rather than Putin being afraid Trump would declare war on him.
When I think of Trump talking about how he'd keep Putin from being bad, I feel him channeling the same energy as this cringe woman:

If Putin wanted to be Trump's friend as much as Trump wanted to be his, perhaps Trump would not have "allowed" a sovereign state with thousands of nukes and little fear of sanctions to do what it wanted. He kept China, Iran, and NK on such a short leash, after all.

But the bolded is one of those more disturbing aspects of Trump's behavior, allied with his admiration for other autocrats and impatience with democracy. It's just very hard to see him standing up to someone whose admiration he longs for.

I think that during his first two years in office, he'd have made crazy ambiguous statements about Putin's genius while mildly condemning him under pressure from some in his party, especially the Senate, and from the "adult" advisors, while at the same time standing aside as Congress voted aid to Ukraine.

During his last year, his adult advisors gone, it is much harder to say. People who forced him to react might be fired. He had people in the House who would support NO aid to Ukraine. And I don't seem him actually LEADING an international coalition or our NATO treaty partners with any clarity or decisiveness. At best he would be reluctantly reacting to advisors' prompts. 

Sometimes people for get he has no knowledge of world history or the genesis of the post-WWII world order. So howz he going to make informed decisions about what is or is not a threat to US national interest? 

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(11-06-2023, 02:16 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: The thing I was thinking of was the rumblings from White House aides and staff members saying Trump had privately discussed leaving NATO over the other NATO members not meeting their required defense spending.

Trump later mentioned that he did in fact threaten to leave NATO in private conversations in one of his meandering "Sir" speeches:

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/trump-confirms-he-threatened-to-withdraw-from-nato/

Normally, I would have just brushed this off as Trump talking about all the things he plans to do but never does, but this was shortly after he did withdraw from the Paris Agreement and around the time he ended up withdrawing from the Iran deal.

Now, leaving NATO would have been a much larger step than leaving either of those agreements, but the precedent was there for him to just...leave international agreements if he didn't like them. And he claims he only threatened it to make them pay their share, but he still discussed the possibility, whether he would have actually done it or not is another question. Leaving NATO didn't feel like that big of a leap after those two withdrawals.

(11-06-2023, 02:35 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: I'm thinking specifically of things like this: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/14/us/politics/nato-president-trump.html

There are ways to approach these things that don't alienate our allies. That, combined with Trump's apparent affinity for strongmen with autocratic tendencies really makes me concerned for all of that.

It would be very difficult for me to have already admitted that Trump is unpredictable and then turn around and definitively state he wouldn't have left NATO.  Consequently, I'll confine myself to stating I find it highly unlikely he would have and this is likely an example of his talking off the cuff because someone, or some country, did something that pissed him off around that time.

I just don't see these sources as indicating a big a threat to NATO as the two of you do.

[CJD]

(11-06-2023, 07:47 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: It would be very difficult for me to have already admitted that Trump is unpredictable and then turn around and definitively state he wouldn't have left NATO.  Consequently, I'll confine myself to stating I find it highly unlikely he would have and this is likely an example of his talking off the cuff because someone, or some country, did something that pissed him off around that time.

I just don't see these sources as indicating a big a threat to NATO as the two of you do.

To be clear, my general sentiment is, "this would be too extreme even for Trump." But he's unpredictable. You never know what lengths Trump will go to to screw over whoever he feels has slighted him. Everything is a roll of the dice with him.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(11-07-2023, 09:52 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: To be clear, my general sentiment is, "this would be too extreme even for Trump." But he's unpredictable. You never know what lengths Trump will go to to screw over whoever he feels has slighted him. Everything is a roll of the dice with him.

I absolutely agree.  This rather highlights a real issue with Trump's detractors, not Bel or yourself, but in general.  I read Bel's article and honestly found it to be a bit hyperbolic.  That happens a lot with Trump and I think it really muddies the waters.  There are/were so many complaints about his behavior that genuine ones can easily be obscured by the more histrionic ones.