MAGA Foreign Policy: "Not Another Penny for Ukraine!"

[Dill]

I was considering a thread on “The Coming Chaos”—i.e., what happens if Repubs contest a dozen or so elections, Dems lose the house, and “investigations” into the DOJ and FBI begin, along with Biden’s impeachment.  

Too much for one thread, and perhaps too early. But the foreign policy question is not. Trump praised and befriended dictators, let our NATO allies know they were a burden, pulled us out of the Paris Agreement, blew up the Iran Deal, and negotiated an Afghanistan pull out without consulting their government. If there is a “Trump Doctrine,” it’s trajectory is disruptive and dismissive of responsible international leadership.

So now MTJ has promised to defund our program of aid to Ukraine if the GOP takes over the House. That fits the disruptive and chaotic Trump precedent.

But if GOP win back the House, will that only mean a brief fight among Republicans, with the Greene Party toeing the McCarthy line? Or will the MAGAs grind down their leadership over the next year with obstruction, getting concessions like funding reductions? Or is there some unforeseeable third outcome which includes elements of both—the Ukraine funding continues, but the fracture weakens party unity still needed for upcoming political vendettas, tax cuts, and budget votes?  

I would be more confident of the first option if we had not seen such terrible and unpredictable political swings over the last decade. The second would require a lot of destructive brinksmanship, likely during votes on the debt, for they’d have to get the entire GOP membership on board. A portion of the base would have to do a 180 as well, to threaten MJT opponents. Could the linkage to immigration and controlling our own border bring the majority of the MAGA base along, and party leadership with them?

Might the internecine fight though, if there is one, have international effects, emboldening Putin and allies, discouraging U.S. allies and friends of democracy, advancing the narrative of our unreliability and fouling other policies in wholly unforeseen ways? 

Marjorie Taylor Greene: ‘Under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine’
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3719467-marjorie-taylor-greene-under-republicans-not-another-penny-will-go-to-ukraine/

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) promised on Thursday that “not another penny will go to Ukraine” if Republicans retake control of Congress in Tuesday’s midterm elections.
“The only border they care about is Ukraine, not America’s southern border,” Greene said of Democrats at a Trump rally in Sioux City, Iowa. “Under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine. Our country comes first. They don’t care about our border or our people.”

The Ukrainians are publicly confident the funding will continue.


Ukraine Reacts to Marjorie Taylor Greene's Vow to Defund                          
https://www.newsweek.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-ukraine-support-midterms-kyiv-1756954

Kyiv is confident that rhetoric about cutting military aid to Ukraine will not change Washington's commitment to fighting Russian aggression, no matter what happens in next week's U.S. midterm elections, Ukrainian MPs told Newsweek.
. . . Sviatoslav Yurash, a Duma for President Volodymyr Zelensky's Servant of the People Party said that he was "very confident in bipartisan consensus in the U.S. on the matter of supporting our struggle" following the midterms no matter who controls the House.

[BigPapaKain]

Well they've gotta make the people signing their checks happy.

[kalibengal]

(11-05-2022, 10:36 AM)BigPapaKain Wrote: Well they've gotta make the people signing their checks happy.

I find it hard to believe after shelling out 60+ BILL on Ukraine we stop cold turkey. I can see a scenario where its paired down a little but we need to finish the job now. 

[Dill]

(11-05-2022, 11:26 AM)kalibengal Wrote: I find it hard to believe after shelling out 60+ BILL on Ukraine we stop cold turkey. I can see a scenario where its paired down a little but we need to finish the job now. 

We do. But will we be able to? 

If Ukraine is still teetering in January, I wonder if some disruption in voting on continued funding could

have serious consequences on the ground, encouraging Putin to hang in there 

and limiting Ukraine to defense again.

If the war drags on, for lack of requisite funding possibly, it will become Biden's War and so something to
organize against. No way a majority of Americans supports leaving Ukraine high and dry, but superminority
control of the House could disrupt needed help. 

Anyway, this is something to watch, along with the proposed vengeance hearings. 

[samhain]

It's a matter of how the GOP deals with their newfound (likely) majorities. Voices like Greene's will be loud. She will have several cohorts like Jordan, Boebert, Gaetz, Gosar, etc that will help her push this kind of agenda.

With that said, and it pains me to say it, we may have to hope for the good ol' military-industrial complex to prevail here. Weapons manufacturers and their lobbyists probably won't love the idea of scaling back production and profit for some crackpot isolationist agenda. I'm sure they have no shortage of congressional Republicans on speed dial to have conversations about campaign contributions and the like.

I'm 45. In my lifetime, I've never seen the military industrial complex lose. Granted, we live in strange times regarding the GOP shift toward authoritarian populism in some scenarios. Maybe they really have turned into some strange new party that cares less about having global hegemony and more about image-based Caudillismo, but I doubt it. If they care less about payola than insane ideological bluster, then we're all in deep shit. if money can't control the crazies, then buckle up.

McCarthy will have some decisions to make and they won't be easy ones.

[Dill]

(11-05-2022, 02:01 PM)samhain Wrote: It's a matter of how the GOP deals with their newfound (likely) majorities.  Voices like Greene's will be loud.  She will have several cohorts like Jordan, Boebert, Gaetz, Gosar, etc that will help her push this kind of agenda.  

With that said, and it pains me to say it, we may have to hope for the good ol' military-industrial complex to prevail here.  Weapons manufacturers and their lobbyists probably won't love the idea of scaling back production and profit for some crackpot isolationist agenda.  I'm sure they have no shortage of congressional Republicans on speed dial to have conversations about campaign contributions and the like.  
I'm 45.  In my lifetime, I've never seen the military industrial complex lose.  Granted, we live in strange times regarding the GOP shift toward authoritarian populism in some scenarios.  Maybe they really have turned into some strange new party that cares less about having global hegemony and more about image-based Caudillismo, but I doubt it.  If they care less about payola than insane ideological bluster, then we're all in deep shit.  if money can't control the crazies, then buckle up.  

McCarthy will have some decisions to make and they won't be easy ones.

All good points, Sam. Though I'm not sure pulling out of Vietnam or the Iraq War fit the MIC agenda.

The war lobby will likely be a powerful lobby here. I'm just wondering, though, if the MAGA contingent can
gum up the works, so the Ukraine aid runs like a car driving with one flat tire, but still going.