MLB Draft

[Goalpost]

It gets less coverage than the NFL and NBA drafts because the players take longer to develop. The Reds will have 7 picks within the top 150...7, 38, 43, 74, 105, 141. The draft is July 9th thru 11th.

Imo they should look at college pitchers this year. I don't mind High School pitchers but they take longer to develop.

Here is a list of prospects...

https://futurestarsseries.com/2023-mlb-draft-the-top-400-prospects-dylan-crews-paul-skenes-wyatt-langford-max-clark-chase-dollander/

I think Skenes is likely gone by pick 7, and Dollander is likely 50/50 to be there. Waldrop and Lowder likely there.

The other option to me would be possibly a catcher if Stephenson is only a part time answer.

[Goalpost]

Reds choose Rhett Lowder RHP out of Wake Forest with pick number 7.

The reigning ACC Pitcher of the Year, Lowder has some of the best pitchability in the entire class. He's been into the mid-90's with the fastball, sitting in the low-90s later into starts with running life, mixing it with a good slider in the low-80's and a diabolical change-up with late parachute and fading life out of the zone in the mid-80's. It's one of the best changeups in the class and comfortably projects plus. He can pitch backwards off the slider and change-up with ease and has good command and feel of his entire arsenal.

[Nicomo Cosca]

With the 7th pick in the 2023 #MLBDraft, the Cincinnati Reds select RHP Rhett Lowder.

Welcome to Reds Country, Rhett️ pic.twitter.com/yeOQzLnALs

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) July 9, 2023

Long and luxurious flow is apparently very important to the Reds these days.

[Murdock2420]

Reminds me of Mike Leake. Polished college pitcher with a stable floor and not a ton of potential upside. Plus, good hair.

[NATI BENGALS]

You would think we could have found somebody with a few more awards picking so high....

























2023 Anthony J. McKevlin Award (ACC Male Athlete of the Year)
2023 ACC Pitcher of the Year
2023 ACC Scholar-Athlete of the Year
2023 Baseball America First Team All-American
2023 Collegiate Baseball First Team All-American
2023 ABCA First Team All-American
2023 NCBWA First Team All-American
2023 National Pitcher of the Year Finalist
2023 First Team All-ACC
2023 All-ACC Academic Team Selection
2023 Dick Howser Trophy Finalist
2023 NCBWA District 4 Player of the Year
2023 First Team CSC Academic All-American
2023 Winston-Salem Regional All-Tournament Team
2023 Golden Spikes Award Semifinalist
2023 ACC All-Tournament Team
2023 ACC Pitcher of the Week (May 8)
2023 ACC Pitcher of the Week (April 17)
2023 Golden Spikes Award Midseason Watch List
2023 ACC Pitcher of the Week (March 27)
2023 Perfect Game National Pitcher of the Week (March 27)
2023 Golden Spikes Award Preseason Watch List
2023 Perfect Game First Team Preseason All-American
2023 Collegiate Baseball First Team Preseason All-American
2023 Baseball America First Team Preseason All-American
2023 D1Baseball First Team Preseason All-American
2023 NCBWA First Team Preseason All-American
2023 D1Baseball Preseason ACC Pitcher of the Year
2023 Perfect Game Preseason ACC Pitcher of the Year
2023 Perfect Game Preseason All-ACC
2022 ACC Pitcher of the Year (First ever in program history)
2022 Unanimous All-American (Third in program history)
2022 ABCA First Team All-American
2022 Baseball America First Team All-American
2022 D1Baseball Second Team All-American
2022 Perfect Game Second Team All-American
2022 Collegiate Baseball Second Team All-American
2022 NCBWA Third Team All-American
2022 ABCA/Rawlings First Team All-Region
2022 USA Baseball Collegiate National Team Member
2022 First Team All-ACC
2022 Pitcher of the Year Finalist (First ever in program history)
2022 All-ACC Academic Team Selection
ACC Pitcher of the Week (May 23, 2022)
Perfect Game Pitcher of the Week (May 23, 2022)

[cinci4life]

Pick 38 Reds take Ty Floyd RHP LSU.

[guyofthetiger]

Good picks. The Reds need pitching help asap.

[Goalpost]

https://www.theadvertiser.com/story/sports/college/lsu/2023/07/09/cincinnati-reds-mlb-draft-2023-lsu-baseball-ty-floyd/70371456007/

He really rose his stock with his College World Series performance.

[CJD]

Fun fact for those who care about mock drafts.

Keith Law had all three of the Reds' picks tonight going in the first round.

Quote:9. Colorado Rockies – Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest
I’ve been told the safest bet in the top 10 is the Rockies taking a college arm, which would be Lowder, Dollander or maybe Hurston Waldrep. I haven’t heard Ty Floyd with them but I wouldn’t fall out of my chair with surprise either.

Quote:17. Baltimore Orioles – Ty Floyd, RHP, LSU
If you’re asking me to bet on a category, I’d still bet they’re more likely to take a hitter than a pitcher, but Floyd has flown up everyone’s boards lately and he does have the fastball characteristics that the Orioles seem to value. If they go bat, it could be Houck, Arjun Nimmala or Eldridge, or maybe they just take any good college bat who slides like Troy or Shaw.

Quote:26. New York Yankees – Sammy Stafura, SS, Walter Panas High (Cortlandt, N.Y.)
This connection keeps coming back around, whether it’s because they really value Stafura’s defense and speed that highly or just because they saw the local kid the most. I’ve heard them with Eldridge, Head, Thomas White and Peete; and wouldn’t be surprised if they went after a college arm here like Floyd or Joe Whitman.

https://theathletic.com/4671798/2023/07/07/mlb-mock-draft-langford-pirates-crews-clark/

Seems we got decent value in these first three picks.

I also really like the intention behind these picks. In my mind, the Reds need to do two things in the coming years:
1. Amp up their MLB pitching quickly.
2. Maintain the stream of MLB bats as the current set of rookies enter arbitration and, eventually, free agency/being traded away.

The first point is fairly straight forward. We are in the thick of a playoff race and seem to be legit. Our main weakness is pitching. Pitching is EXPENSIVE both in free agency and via trade, so why not develop your own? We've done it with Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Abbott and Diaz, and are working on it with Petty and Phillips. Adding more college arms to this farm system increases the odds that we can improve our MLB pitching in the next 2 seasons to bolster any development, free agents and trades we may make in the next 10 months as we prepare for the beginning of our true window of contention, 2024 (or maybe we just surprise people and go on a run this year :) ).

The second point is a little more controversial, but we have a group of potential stars that are playing on rookie level money. Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Johnathan India, Spencer Steer, TJ Friedl, Will Benson, Jake Fraley, Tyler Stephenson, and, in the near future, CES and Noelvi Marte are playing for less than a million dollars each per year.

India's arbitration is about to start, so his salary will jump, but the others are looking at ~750k per year for the next 2 to 3 seasons.

Eventually, these players will all graduate from our control, somewhere around 2027 or 2028 for the first set (Fraley, Stephenson, Friedl and whoever comes in 2nd place in RoTY voting behind Carroll, probably McLain or Elly). 

We'll be able to pay some of them...but we won't be able to pay all of them. 

So drafting young high school bats with projectable traits means that, around 2027 or 2028, they may be ready to make the leap to the major leagues. Maybe apprentice behind the player they're replacing for a year, and then take over in 2029. They started last year with Cam Collier and continue the trend here with Stafura.

I don't know who we'll keep over the others. I really hope we sign Elly and McLain to 10 year contracts, but the Reds are historically a very fickle team. So planning for the future with high upside high school bats is a good strategy.

I don't think college bats will be all that helpful for this team (relative to college arms and high school bats), as our line up is pretty stacked for the foreseeable future. It's all about planning for that end of this window in preparation for the next window. College bats will gain more value in the 2025 through 2027 drafts, I imagine, when we're looking for that next crop of Matt McLains and Johnathan Indias (and Nick Senzels, even though he hasn't worked out quite like we hoped, he's still a contributor to the team's success).

Elly De La Cruz, after all, was signed in 2018. Friedl was signed in 2016. Rebuilds start half a decade before they manifest in the major leagues and I like the forward thinking of picking high school bats at this stage of the team's development.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

Mark Sheldon has a nicely done writeup on Day 2.
https://www.mlb.com/news/reds-college-players-day-2-of-2023-mlb-draft

Rounds 3 through 10 were all college except for a 4th round HS pitcher committed to UC Santa Barbara, however the chance to eventually play with De La Cruz may be a bit too tempting. You just know his high school friends are going to be reminding him of that everyday.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-10-2023, 02:15 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Seems we got decent value in these first three picks.

I also really like the intention behind these picks. In my mind, the Reds need to do two things in the coming years:

Of the first three picks I really like the first one. The other two guys are lacking in the most important part for me to be excited.

A pitcher with iffy pitching history in college whose biggest weakness is control.
A shortstop whose bat is the tool most in doubt.

Give me control from pitchers (92 on the black is better than 98 that is 6" out of the zone or right down broadway) and give me hit tool on batters. If you can't have all the tools (hey Elly), hit tool is the most important. Give me Adam Dunn over Billy Hamilton every day, if a guy can hit you can always find him at bats and hide him defensively, if he can't hit then the best he can be is a late inning defensive replacement which isn't particularly worth a roster spot.

[Earendil]

OK, I keep seeing you guys refer to CES, but I have no idea who that is.

[CJD]

(07-11-2023, 12:42 PM)Earendil Wrote: OK, I keep seeing you guys refer to CES, but I have no idea who that is.

Christian Encarnacion Strand. We acquired him as part of the Tyler Mahle trade last year (along with Spencer Steer). He is a hard hitting right handed 1B/DH who has dabbled at 3B (although we have much better options at that position in the major leagues) who is playing incredibly well in the minor leagues this season (and last season).

At the moment, he is hitting .321/.392/.620/1.012 over 65 games and 306 plate appearances in AAA. He's hit 20 homeruns, with 17 doubles and 2 triples.

This is after a season in 2022 where he hit .304/.368/.587/.955 across 122 games and 538 plate appearances between A+ and AA (before and after the trade). 

[CJD]

(07-10-2023, 10:21 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Of the first three picks I really like the first one. The other two guys are lacking in the most important part for me to be excited.

A pitcher with iffy pitching history in college whose biggest weakness is control.
A shortstop whose bat is the tool most in doubt.

Give me control from pitchers (92 on the black is better than 98 that is 6" out of the zone or right down broadway) and give me hit tool on batters. If you can't have all the tools (hey Elly), hit tool is the most important. Give me Adam Dunn over Billy Hamilton every day, if a guy can hit you can always find him at bats and hide him defensively, if he can't hit then the best he can be is a late inning defensive replacement which isn't particularly worth a roster spot.

That's fair. I like that Stafura has plus speed, which has become a bit of a team identity for us, but you're right that his hit tool is currently his worst one. I do not follow the MLB draft closely enough to form my own opinions on how these guys play, that's why I kept my evaluation to the philosophy behind the selections (we need pitchers in the majors now - draft college pitchers. We will need hitters 5 to 7 years from now - draft high school bats with high ceilings), but I've seen some outlets say his hit tool could stand to improve.

There are so many draft picks in the MLB draft, it's hard to know (or expect) much about anyone but the top 15 to 30 prospects within the system, so I'm just glad we got a good player that should impact the major league team during this competitive window in the first round. 

[*ochocincos*]

(07-10-2023, 10:21 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Of the first three picks I really like the first one. The other two guys are lacking in the most important part for me to be excited.

A pitcher with iffy pitching history in college whose biggest weakness is control.
A shortstop whose bat is the tool most in doubt.

Give me control from pitchers (92 on the black is better than 98 that is 6" out of the zone or right down broadway) and give me hit tool on batters. If you can't have all the tools (hey Elly), hit tool is the most important. Give me Adam Dunn over Billy Hamilton every day, if a guy can hit you can always find him at bats and hide him defensively, if he can't hit then the best he can be is a late inning defensive replacement which isn't particularly worth a roster spot.

Out of all the position players, I feel SS and CF can be the least-good at hitting. Defense is extremely important for those two positions.
Obviously though, being able to hit from either of those positions just makes the player that much better.

I'm not overly worried about who they draft.
Drafted players move organizations all the time.

[*bengalfan74*]

(07-15-2023, 09:00 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Out of all the position players, I feel SS and CF can be the least-good at hitting. Defense is extremely important for those two positions.
Obviously though, being able to hit from either of those positions just makes the player that much better.

I'm not overly worried about who they draft.
Drafted players move organizations all the time.

Agree

The oldschool set up of a baseball team was speed and defense up the middle. Power on the edges.

You kinda sorta, there's always exceptions here and there. But you let your SS, CF, 2B, and C get away with not being all-star's at the plate if their defense was excellent. Now there's a line there. You can't stay on the field as SS batting .142, see Barrero

Your power, hitting, RBI's came from LF, RF, 1B, 3B and I still believe the better teams adhere to that set up for the most part. If your 1B for example is not producing at the plate you gotta make it up somewhere. And if you SS and CF are only kinda MEH hitting you start getting in trouble. Now your RFer isn't producing as well and you've just hit the wall. There's nowhere else to run.

And drafted players positions isn't that big a deal. Drafted as SS ends up RF. Drafted as 1B ends up C. Drafted as LF ends up pitcher, so on.