Mahle traded to the Twins

[CJD]

The #Reds have acquired IF Spencer Steer (Twins No. 7 prospect according to MLB Pipeline), IF Christian Encarnacion-Strand (No. 23) and LHP Steven Hajjar (No. 18) from Minnesota in exchange for RHP Tyler Mahle.

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) August 2, 2022

Was told weeks ago by #stlcards official what a good fit Mahle would be for their needs but with asterisk: 'Not the kind of thing we do in the division.'

Prospect tally: Steer (97th in Top 100), Encarnacion-Strand (14th in MN Top 30), Hajjar (11th in MN Top 30). Control galore. https://t.co/sz4MtjJLXQ

— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) August 2, 2022

Reds are sending Tyler Mahle to the Twins for a package of three prospects: INF Spencer Steer (No. 4 in Twins' system via Baseball America's rankings), LHP Steven Hajjar (No. 11) and 3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand (No. 14). https://t.co/AdfULLVtYc

— Bobby Nightengale (@nightengalejr) August 2, 2022

These three players boast some pretty insane stats right now:

Quote:Steer had a .269 batting average and a .361 on-base percentage in 83 games between Double-A and Triple-A this year with 23 doubles, 20 homers and 62 RBI. The 24-year-old has experience at shortstop, third base and second base, and he’s known for his contact-oriented approach with 42 walks to 66 strikeouts.

Hajjar, a 21-year-old listed at 6-foot-5, 215 pounds, had a 2.47 ERA in 12 starts at Single-A with 71 strikeouts and 22 walks in 43 2/3 innings. Opposing hitters have a .168 batting average against him.

Encarnacion-Strand, 22, was batting .302 with 25 doubles, 25 homers and 85 RBI in 87 games between High-A and Double-A. He's a 6-foot, 224-pound right-handed hitter with a .374 on-base percentage.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/mlb/reds/2022/08/02/reds-trade-tyler-mahle-minnesota-twins-ahead-trade-deadline/10181687002/

All three of these players seem to be ascending players, as their stats do not match their rankings in the Twin's systems. I think all three are in the midst of break out seasons, so you could argue the Twins are selling high on them. They are in the early 20s, so there isn't as much projection required for these 3 as there were for the prospects from the Naquin and Castillo trades, but they certainly seem like solid additions to the farm system and could be up in the majors within a year or 2.

[CJD]

Spencer Steer:

Quote:Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Arm: 50 | Field: 45 | Overall: 45

Power was never a significant part of Steer's skillset as a three-year starter for the University of Oregon, where his .349/.456/.502 slash line and control of the strike zone as an everyday shortstop during his junior year earned him a third-round selection in the 2019 Draft. After Steer maintained that profile with four homers and a .385 on-base percentage in '19, the Twins worked with him during the shutdown to drive the ball more effectively, and he responded with 24 homers in his first taste of full-season ball.

Steer doesn’t have any big tools, but his natural affinity for putting the barrel to the ball helps his skillset play up. The swing tweaks didn't affect his bat path or approach too much but allowed him to use his lower half more effectively to transfer force from the ground into his bat speed. He didn't trade off too much of his excellent discipline, maintaining a .348 on-base percentage with 55 walks in '21, though the strikeout rate jumped and the Twins hope those numbers could rebound some more. He’s an average runner, but isn’t really a base-stealing threat.

Though Steer's collegiate shortstop experience has helped him play three infield positions with good hands, his throwing needs work and his focus has been more at second and third than at shortstop, with continuing uncertainty as to where he'll fit best. Previously, he likely profiled best as a utility type at the highest level, but if he can maintain this newfound power, he could push into consideration as a regular with defensive versatility, with third base becoming more realistic if the power stays and his arm improves.

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/twins/spencer-steer-668715

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

Quote:Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 50 | Run: 40 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Oveall: 40

All Encarnacion-Strand did as an amateur was hit, spanning two seasons at Yavapai (Ariz.) College in the JUCO circuit and one year at Oklahoma State, where he was Big 12 Conference newcomer of the year after hitting .361/.442/.661 with 15 homers. He didn't slow down after the Twins selected him in the fourth round in 2021, hitting .391/.424/.598 in A-ball across 22 games in the notoriously pitcher-friendly Low-A Southeast.

He chases outside the zone a little too much, perhaps borne of seeking contact and hits instead of waiting for his pitch, but he's got solid bat-to-ball skills and the ability to drive the ball hard to all fields. The results have obviously spoken for themselves throughout his amateur career, but the Twins hope he'll make strides with his plate discipline and selectivity, with some mechanical adjustments with his stride also in play to help his consistency.

Though he mostly played first base in his first professional season, the 22-year-old also opened eyes with his defense at the hot corner, where he moves well with his big frame and features strong instincts and angles to the ball and good hands. If he can address the plate discipline, his bat could carry him up the system, with the ability to contribute from either corner infield spot.

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/twins/christian-encarnacion-strand-687952

Steve Hajjar

Quote:Scouting Grades: Fastball: 50 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45

Hajjar was a solid pitching prospect while in high school in Massachusetts, but opted not to sign with the Brewers as a late-round choice in 2018 to honor his commitment to Michigan. He missed his freshman year after tearing his ACL playing pickup basketball, but came back and led the Wolverines rotation the next two years. While his stuff wasn’t super-sharp, he led the Big Ten in strikeouts in 2021 and landed in the second round of the Draft, where the Twins signed him to full slot.

The big lefty didn’t throw an official pitch for the Twins after a full workload at Michigan, but the Twins were thrilled to see his stuff tick up in the short time they worked with Hajjar after he signed. While his fastball averaged around 90 mph in college in 2021, he was more around 93 mph, touching a bit higher, in bullpen sessions with the Twins. He can miss bats with all of his secondary offerings and he used his plus low-80s changeup with good tumble and his mid-70s curveball effectively last year. The Twins have encouraged him to add velocity to his low-80s slider and to focus on adding lateral movement to it so it can be a better weapon against left-handed hitters.

Hajjar’s overhand delivery creates deception and the Twins don’t think it needs much work for him to have success at this level. He has a good feel for pitching and should continue to improve his command as he progresses, with perhaps more in the tank as he keeps adding strength to that 6-foot-5 frame.

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/twins/steve-hajjar-680727

[BenZoo2]

This seems like a reasonable haul for Mahle. Though I would have had no issue keeping him either.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[leonardfan40]

Another good deal for us. Never know how it turns out but at least we are getting good/great value at the time of these trades. More than I could say about 5-10 years ago when we shipped big guys off.

[*bengalfan74*]

Sounds like the Reds have a good chance of doing very well in these trades. We'll see

[The D.O.Z.]

Steer is almost MLB ready. If he keeps improving, I expect him to be a September call up this year.

[*ochocincos*]

At this point, it's Votto, Moose, Farmer, and a bunch of young bucks on their first contract.
Some of these guys like India, Stephenson, Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft are exciting, but the Reds will need a couple more players to start competing again.
Hopefully some of these guys who came in via trade will help build the new core.

[samhain]

I wonder if perhaps India gets moved to left. He's booted a lot more balls this year, and they have a ton of young infielders that need seasoning. Maybe Steer at 2nd, Barrero at short, and farmer at 3rd next year with India/Senzel/dead end right fielder in the OF.

[CJD]

(08-03-2022, 10:17 PM)samhain Wrote: I wonder if perhaps India gets moved to left.  He's booted a lot more balls this year, and they have a ton of young infielders that need seasoning.   Maybe Steer at 2nd, Barrero at short, and farmer at 3rd next year with India/Senzel/dead end right fielder in the OF.

It's possible that our 2024 opening day lineup is something along the lines of:
C: Tyler Stephenson
1B: Christian Encarnacion-Strand/Free Agent
2B: Spencer Steer
3B: Elly De La Cruz
SS: Noelvi Marte
LF: Johnathan India
CF: Matt McLain
RF: Austin Hendrick/Free Agent
DH: Free Agent (maybe Rece Hinds/Tyler Callihan?)

Of course, this line up will require a lot of prospects to progress and graduate to the majors on schedule, which is not a given by any means, but this is what I would consider the ideal scenario line up and it is brimming with potential. I think 1B, RF and DH are the most likely positions that we'd fill via free agency, but we have some potential at each position as well, especially if Encarnacion-Strand continues his hot hitting. Cam Collier also is said to be a young but potentially quick development player, since he was playing in JUCO with players 3 to 4 years his senior and dominating. 

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-04-2022, 02:14 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: It's possible that our 2024 opening day lineup is something along the lines of:
C: Tyler Stephenson
1B: Christian Encarnacion-Strand/Free Agent
2B: Spencer Steer
3B: Elly De La Cruz
SS: Noelvi Marte
LF: Johnathan India
CF: Matt McLain
RF: Austin Hendrick/Free Agent
DH: Free Agent (maybe Rece Hinds/Tyler Callihan?)

Of course, this line up will require a lot of prospects to progress and graduate to the majors on schedule, which is not a given by any means, but this is what I would consider the ideal scenario line up and it is brimming with potential. I think 1B, RF and DH are the most likely positions that we'd fill via free agency, but we have some potential at each position as well, especially if Encarnacion-Strand continues his hot hitting. Cam Collier also is said to be a young but potentially quick development player, since he was playing in JUCO with players 3 to 4 years his senior and dominating. 

I've heard some talk, not official of course, about moving Stephenson to 1B. Mostly to avoid the injury problems of course. 

Perhaps they'll move Votto to DH/ part time role next season ?

[CJD]

(08-04-2022, 10:44 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I've heard some talk, not official of course, about moving Stephenson to 1B. Mostly to avoid the injury problems of course. 

Perhaps they'll move Votto to DH/ part time role next season ?

Honestly, that's probably for the best. A catcher who is good with the pitchers who can also hit well is one of the rarest things in baseball (Buster Posey style player) and Stephenson would lose a bit of that "specialness" if we reverted him to 1B, but we can't have him breaking bones from foul tips all season. First, it was a concussion on a play at the plate (with him as catcher, not runner), then it was his thumb on a foul tip, and now it is his collarbone on another foul tip. Either this guy is too fragile to be back there or is one of the most unlucky dudes ever. Either way, maybe taking him out of the line of fire is a good idea.

With that said, if we do that, we'll have a gaping hole at Catcher that we'd need to fill in some way if we want to compete. Papierski and Kolozsvary are not major league quality players, especially not if we hope to be a contender in the next few years.

[samhain]

(08-04-2022, 11:18 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Honestly, that's probably for the best. A catcher who is good with the pitchers who can also hit well is one of the rarest things in baseball (Buster Posey style player) and Stephenson would lose a bit of that "specialness" if we reverted him to 1B, but we can't have him breaking bones from foul tips all season. First, it was a concussion on a play at the plate (with him as catcher, not runner), then it was his thumb on a foul tip, and now it is his collarbone on another foul tip. Either this guy is too fragile to be back there or is one of the most unlucky dudes ever. Either way, maybe taking him out of the line of fire is a good idea.

With that said, if we do that, we'll have a gaping hole at Catcher that we'd need to fill in some way if we want to compete. Papierski and Kolozsvary are not major league quality players, especially not if we hope to be a contender in the next few years.

I think Stephenson should be protected and moved to first, but the organization seems extremely reluctant.  A catcher with his offensive skills is extremely rare.  It's an apples and oranges comparison, but it's sort of like having a freak TE like Gronk or Gates in an offense.  It's such an unusual advantage that the WAR gains in metrics get skewed heavily in your favor.  That's how I think they view it.  That's a dumb way to go if you want to keep your best offensive player on the field, but it's what it is.  Plus, what's the use of keeping him behind the plate to skew the WAR metric if you don't have anyone else in the offense to help you capitalize?  Soto, Biggio, Schwarber, etc, were all cathers until it could no longer be justified.  I think eventually the same happens for Stephenson.  

By 2024, Votto and Moose are gone and so are their contracts.  The team will have between 80-90 mil in payroll obligations in 2023.  Subtract those two albatross deals, and you're looking at 40 mil plus coming off the books.  They will have a practically non-existent payroll of 50 mil or so.  They can go out and buy a serviceable (thinking Barnhart caliber) to good catcher with that kind of payroll structure.  

[CJD]

(08-04-2022, 11:55 AM)samhain Wrote: I think Stephenson should be protected and moved to first, but the organization seems extremely reluctant.  A catcher with his offensive skills is extremely rare.  It's an apples and oranges comparison, but it's sort of like having a freak TE like Gronk or Gates in an offense.  It's such an unusual advantage that the WAR gains in metrics get skewed heavily in your favor.  That's how I think they view it.  That's a dumb way to go if you want to keep your best offensive player on the field, but it's what it is.  Plus, what's the use of keeping him behind the plate to skew the WAR metric if you don't have anyone else in the offense to help you capitalize?  Soto, Biggio, Schwarber, etc, were all cathers until it could no longer be justified.  I think eventually the same happens for Stephenson.  

By 2024, Votto and Moose are gone and so are their contracts.  The team will have between 80-90 mil in payroll obligations in 2023.  Subtract those two albatross deals, and you're looking at 40 mil plus coming off the books.  They will have a practically non-existent payroll of 50 mil or so.  They can go out and buy a serviceable (thinking Barnhart caliber) to good catcher with that kind of payroll structure.  

I agree with you completely about how the Reds view it. A player of Stephenson's offensive caliber who also plays one of the most valuable defensive positions well is the type of player that a World Series team is built around (The same goes for a shortstop with elite offensive production), but if he is getting injured because of it, you eventually need to make the change. And I think they ultimately will. I just hope he doesn't get too banged up before they have that realization.

I'm really excited for the 2024 season because, like you said, they have the opportunity to buy out both Votto's and Moose's contracts at the exact time that so many of these top prospects are projected to hit the major leagues. That leaves them with a team full of cheap, young talented players and only a handful of veteran contracts. They could really go out and make a splash in free agency if the prospects like EDLC, Marte etc come through and shine as we hope they do.