Making France Great Again?

[Dill]

Just wondering--anyone here following the French elections? Despite the EU scandal, the Front National continues to make a strong showing in the polls.  Le Pen is ready to withdraw from Nato, lock down French borders, and start deporting.

Just saw an MSNBC interview with a Le Pen supporter this morning complaining that everywhere in the world France's greatness was "going down."  He expects her to fix that.


http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/792176/French-election-Marine-Le-Pen-president-Front-National-Macron-Fillon-Melenchon

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/french-election-marine-le-pen-emmanuel-macron-francois-fillon-jean-luc-melenchon-polls-too-close-to-a7686466.html

Putin has already mad Russia great again. Any other countries out there in need of greatness? I am wondering if this need correlates to economic downturns, real or perceived.
https://www.facebook.com/Make-Greece-Great-Again-944113992303713/

[hollodero]

(04-16-2017, 03:44 PM)Dill Wrote: Just wondering--anyone here following the French elections?

Sure. Every poll indicates Le Pen might win the first round, but has no real shot to actually become president.

Plus, there's the Trump effect that allegedly already dampened Wilders' success. I guess Europe can dodge the Le Pen bullet for now.

Apart from her, what Jean-Luc Melenchon is able to do will be very interesting to see. Whoever finishes in the top two along Le Pen probably becomes the next president, and he suddenly seems to have a shot. Which would be... strange.

[Dill]

(04-16-2017, 07:30 PM)hollodero Wrote: Sure. Every poll indicates Le Pen might win the first round, but has no real shot to actually become president.

Plus, there's the Trump effect that allegedly already dampened Wilders' success. I guess Europe can dodge the Le Pen bullet for now.

Apart from her, what Jean-Luc Melenchon is able to do will be very interesting to see. Whoever finishes in the top two along Le Pen probably becomes the next president, and he suddenly seems to have a shot. Which would be... strange.

Strange in a good way.

Socialisme ou Barbarie--not just a slogan now.

I am not sure the Trump effect can be counted on in every national election.

[Bengalzona]

I've been a bit more concerned with the results in Turkey's election where Erdogwan got the powers he wanted.

Not good.

[Dill]

(04-17-2017, 12:26 AM)Bengalzona Wrote: I've been a bit more concerned with the results in Turkey's election where Erdogwan got the powers he wanted.

Not good.

It's officially a trend now, with pressure building in France and Greece. 

[hollodero]

(04-17-2017, 12:23 AM)Dill Wrote: Strange in a good way.

So you say. I of course like many of his positions. What I don't like is his broad EU-scepticism, talking about not honorng the contracts and even leaving it. I also don't like him praising Castro and Chavez and having some totalitarian ideas. It's a bit like left-wing populism, and I'm not so sure that's the answer.

(04-17-2017, 12:23 AM)Dill Wrote: I am not sure the Trump effect can be counted on in every national election.

Oh, I do. I count on it.
Then again, what else is there I can do.

(04-17-2017, 12:26 AM)Bengalzona Wrote: I've been a bit more concerned with the results in Turkey's election where Erdogwan got the powers he wanted.

Not good.

Not at all.
Flynn might be happy though.

[Dill]

(04-17-2017, 07:00 AM)hollodero Wrote: So you say. I of course like many of his positions. What I don't like is his broad EU-scepticism, talking about not honorng the contracts and even leaving it. I also don't like him praising Castro and Chavez and having some totalitarian ideas. It's a bit like left-wing populism, and I'm not so sure that's the answer.

Praise of Castro and Chavez?--depends on what he is praising there.

I am more worried about the public performance--e.g., telling Merkel to "shut up" and calling Germans "Teutons," as if they just can't help dominating other people. Anything that smacks of Trumpism now, concerns me. He is right to worry about Germany but for the same reasons we all need to worry about nations (including the US) that seem to provide privileged shelter for finance capital and push for unqualified liberalization of trade and otherwise use their economic clout to reward and punish. 

I guess I am still sorting out what I think of West European leftists right now. I should be very pleased that figures like Melenchon and Lafontaine target neoliberalism. But the inconsistencies in their records sometimes smack of opportunism. I like Turrion in Spain but he doesn't have much of a record yet.

Politics is more complicated than it used to be.

[hollodero]

(04-18-2017, 08:54 PM)Dill Wrote: I guess I am still sorting out what I think of West European leftists right now. 

Yeah. Me too.

I can't quite overlook the populism aspect - promising or demanding things that are not quite achieveable. Even if I think many ideas are the right ones, the principle for me still is not.

[Dill]

Obama phones Macron, which he does not call an endorsement.

Then Trump apparently endorses Le Pen.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/794965/french-election-2017-donald-trump-marine-le-pen-polls-results

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/21/donald-trump-wades-french-election-apparent-endorsement-marine/

"She's the strongest on borders and she's the strongest on what's been going on in France," Mr Trump said. "Whoever is the toughest on radical Islamic terrorism, and whoever is the toughest at the borders, will do well in the election."

US presidents typically avoid weighing in on specific candidates running in overseas election. But Mr Trump suggested his opinion was no different from an average observer, saying: "Everybody is making predictions on who is going to win. I'm no different than you."

This following his endorsement of Erdogan's successful referendum.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(04-17-2017, 01:30 AM)Dill Wrote: It's officially a trend now, with pressure building in France and Greece. 

Except Turkey is descending into theocratic autocracy.  Greece and France, not so much.

[THE Bigzoman]

France's situation is unique in that a lot of youth are supporting La Pen. This is different from say, the Brexit vote, where the overwhelming majority of youth supported the Remain camp.

I wouldn't put a lot of stock in the recent shooting in France. It's a love tap when compared to the Charlie Hebdo attack and the bigger one in 2015.

[Dill]

(04-22-2017, 11:09 AM)THE Bigzoman Wrote: France's situation is unique in that a lot of youth are supporting La Pen. This is different from say, the Brexit vote, where the overwhelming majority of youth supported the Remain camp.

I wouldn't put a lot of stock in the recent shooting in France. It's a love tap when compared to the Charlie Hebdo attack and the bigger one in 2015.

Sometimes a "tap" is all that's needed, though I have no idea whether that is the case here. 

That Le Pen has been polling in the 20s is disturbing, though.

I do think though that Trump may now be having a muting effect on the authoritarian trend in some European states. People on the fence now have reason to pause before voting, lest they put an unstable leader at the helm.

[Bengalzona]

A bit concerned at the odds that a "Frexit" supporter might win.

[Dill]

(04-22-2017, 02:44 PM)Bengalzona Wrote: A bit concerned at the odds that a "Frexit" supporter might win.

Hollo raised that issue too. Melenchon has said he wants to pull out of the EU. He's the candidate whose policies I like most, and I understand his worries about Germany.

But even he is sounding a little like Trump now. He doesn't say "France for the French" and he is for immigration--even from North Africa--but he does talk in nationalist terms and calls Germans "Teutons."

This is pushing me back towards he center. Since Brexit I am suddenly very interested in EU developments, but feel very under-informed about them. What little knowledge I have of the EU is fragmentary and haphazard, driven by personal interests.

Over the last decade I have been a fan of EU ventures like the Erasmus Program, which greatly increases foreign study among university students of member nations. I liked the European Research Council when it first appeared It looked like it was going to stimulate basic research. Now I am concerned though that it is pressuring universities to "standardize" education in ways that make it easily measurable for policy makers and grant makers. And the criterion for grants may sliding toward projects that immediately enhance economic growth.  Except for the latter point, and reading a few articles on the Greek debt crisis and Brexit,I have not thought much about the EU economy and how it is affecting member countries.

Also I see how the demographics of countries have changed with the open borders--e.g., so many Eastern Europeans in the UK and France.  And I understand complaints about Germans dominating smaller economies.  But I am concerned that pulling out of the EU--at least pulling out all at one go--may have terrible effects on other European economies which include blowback for the French, bad in the long term.  Bad for the US too.  I am concerned that the EU hostility may be driven primarily by the fact that so many "foreigners" are taking root in countries with stronger economies, European "nativism" and short-sighted populism.

I remember what traveling around Europe was like before the EU. Not bad, but more complicated than now. Passports at the borders and always changing money.  Restoring borders would inconvenience me, but my personal interests and preference are not a good standard for judging Brexits and Frexits.

I would like to hear from someone in the forum who has a better grasp of the pros and cons of EU membership for individual nations, and France in particular.  What might be the consequences for France, Europe, and the US if FRance pulls out of the EU?

[*bfine32*]

Looks like the EU may be in trouble regardless who wins now:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/macron-le-pen-advance-to-france-runoff/ar-BBA95jQ?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp

Quote:French centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen are advancing to the presidential runoff, after major opponents conceded defeat.

[Belsnickel]

(04-23-2017, 04:16 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Looks like the EU may be in trouble regardless who wins now:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/macron-le-pen-advance-to-france-runoff/ar-BBA95jQ?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp

I think Macron is pretty EU friendly, and from what I saw, all of those that didn't make it to the second round are throwing their weight behind him.

[*bfine32*]

(04-23-2017, 04:23 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: I think Macron is pretty EU friendly, and from what I saw, all of those that didn't make it to the second round are throwing their weight behind him.

We'll see. From what I understand both pf right of center. Of course I'm not expert on French Politics.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(04-23-2017, 04:29 PM)bfine32 Wrote: We'll see. From what I understand both pf right of center. Of course I'm not expert on French Politics.

I know, from friends in Europe, that Le Pen / Melenchon was nightmare scenario #1 but that Le Pen / Macron was #2.  I think most centrists were hoping for Fillon / Le Pen.  I don't see any way that Le Pen wins now though, Macron is right enough to mollify many Le Pen leaning voters but centrist enough to gain the support of everyone who doesn't want Le Pen to win.

[hollodero]

(04-22-2017, 03:38 PM)Dill Wrote: I would like to hear from someone in the forum who has a better grasp of the pros and cons of EU membership for individual nations, and France in particular.  What might be the consequences for France, Europe, and the US if FRance pulls out of the EU?

I can't really grasp it either. It's a black hole.

As for the obvious pros, we have lots of national states and fought in two world wars taking ground on our surface, leaving the continent devastated. The EU, and one should not lose focus on that, is first and foremost a peace project. The return to national states might lay the groundwork for new conflict.
Also, the continent is rich and we can't really tell why. Apart from US backing, it's the economy, the trade structures, and first and foremost it's education. As for economy, bigger goals are only to be achieved by working together, not so much by having smaller states trying their own strategy. See: Alternative energy, where after the US pulling out we have the historic chance to set the technological standards for centuries to come. Which needs working together (not least policy-wise) in a concentrated effort.
Then there's the currency. Our national currencies were very vulnerable for Singaporian (or other places') financial speculation. The Euro, despite lots of problems, did quite well in giving us stability and security. Including the still existing national currencies that are dependent on the Euro.
Last not least, it's also about freedom. Which comes with disadvantages too, some regions do not benefit, some people don't, especially lower educated people. They are not wanted anywhere and got great competition by Eastern European EU citizens who do jobs better for way less money. My home town, a classical "worker" town, is a good example for that, people took huge pay cuts or lost their jobs. The city is shrinking although Slovakians and others are streaming in. That they're not the biggest EU fans is understandable. 
For people with education, though, the EU means opportunity, and having opportunities is a strong motor. What could a chemist (or whoever) do in Austria, not so much. Now the world is open for him to do what he wants in some other EU country.

So there were some cons mentioned, there are obvious winners and losers. Low educated Western workers are big losers, and no one cares too much, and the support for right-wing parties is too often attributed to their inherent xenophobia alone. But the xenophobia roots in some very real disadvantages caused by open borders and open trade.
Another con, we have many poor countries that need to be bailed out. And that sure is frustrating, Greece (or Spain, Portugal, Italy...) got in trouble due to many factors, amongst the biggest ones is inability and corruption. When the German EU secessionist says this is BS and why would we be obliged to bail Greece out, there's not much to answer.
Another con is a missing pro, the EU isn't really democratic. If you believe it's democratic for you read that on wikipedia, it's pretty much an illusion. We vote for an EU parliament (that's the only handle we have), but the politicians we send there are not our best. Second grade, old, washed up, praised away. That's what the European people can do, vote for these guys in EU elections that are still strongly shaped by national issues. Policies are not made in the parliament. The EU is at the very best indirectly democratic, and even there you shouldn't look with a magnifying glass.
And the power of EU policy making is limited. For many decisions we still need universal agreeement from all countries. Therefore big changes are hardly happening, would take years to get through and would then be full of compromises (GB wants some fishing rights, Greece wants higher bailouts, Poland always wants something disgusting and Hungary is descended into alt-right hell already...). So what is happening is not really politics, but economic unity and a bunch af administrative BS. Brussels is called a juggernaut caring about the bending of cucumbers, the saying goes. People are not wrong there.

So jackpot question, what if France pulls out. The EU would pretty much be dead. We can stomach GB leaving, they weren't very helpful to begin with. France is essential, though. So what would happen probably would be the forming of some middle European block (Germany, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria and France if they want). A "core Europe". Eastern Europe would be pretty much left out and left for Putin to influence. The gap between rich and poor countries would widen, which again would lead to conflicts. Many would feel that regaining power over the borders, the policies, the economy, the currency would make the countries great again. For Germany, this could be true. For France, it's a tossup. Spain, Greeece, Italy etc. would be the losers. Eastern European countries would try their luck with Putin, the slow process of becoming more democratic would stall, corruption and autocratic structures would be daily routine. The small continent would be divided, and in the long run that can't be helpful to compete in the world.

But as more and more people say: An united Europe is desirable, the EU is not.

-- France won't pull out though, Le Pen isn't winning against Macron. Who is not so much right-wing, he's an EU friendly centrist. And in my personal opinion, the best candidate amongst the four.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(04-23-2017, 04:34 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: I know, from friends in Europe, that Le Pen / Melenchon was nightmare scenario #1 but that Le Pen / Macron was #2.  I think most centrists were hoping for Fillon / Le Pen.  I don't see any way that Le Pen wins now though, Macron is right enough to mollify many Le Pen leaning voters but centrist enough to gain the support of everyone who doesn't want Le Pen to win.

I have to apologize, I confused Fillon with Macron.  Damn Frenchmen!