Manafort & the noisy Russians

[hollodero]

Neb is right... too few threads. Manafort I feel deserves one, at least when attached to a bigger picture.

--- What is Manafort doing? Out on bail for shady Russian stuff, and he runs straight to the next shady Russia-based intelligence-connected individual he can find to work with him.
This can't be explained with stupidity. It really can't. No one can possibly be that stupid, especially not someone like Manafort. And since that is out of the picture for me, my next best theory has to be that the Russians want everyone who "believes the fake news MSM" to know exactly, exactly what they are doing.
The motive could be to further divide those who are Breitbart Trumpers and those who believe things CNN reports. Remember what Comey said back in the day about Russian meddling during his hearing. They are noisy in their efforts, he said, as in remarkably, strangely noisy.
Why would they be noisy?
Are they so incompetent? E.g. why are there so many Emails around with no misleading content or subject lines? This never really made sense, to leave such obvious traces. Left and right.

And this is my best theory so far. The Russians actually want to be found out, seen, noticed. And the speculation would be that many won't believe it still, while the others turn more and more desperate about that. Deepen the trenches. Now to the point of this thread - anyone got a better theory for what's going on with the noisy Russians. Any better theory will do, just the "everyone's stupid/incompetent" theory I can not believe any longer.


(PS hope this only got posted once... I got strange messages about that)

[GMDino]

(12-05-2017, 01:09 PM)hollodero Wrote: Neb is right... too few threads. Manafort I feel deserves one, at least when attached to a bigger picture.

--- What is Manafort doing? Out on bail for shady Russian stuff, and he runs straight to the next shady Russia-based intelligence-connected individual he can find to work with him.
This can't be explained with stupidity. It really can't. No one can possibly be that stupid, especially not someone like Manafort. And since that is out of the picture for me, my next best theory has to be that the Russians want everyone who "believes the fake news MSM" to know exactly, exactly what they are doing.
The motive could be to further divide those who are Breitbart Trumpers and those who believe things CNN reports. Remember what Comey said back in the day about Russian meddling during his hearing. They are noisy in their efforts, he said, as in remarkably, strangely noisy.
Why would they be noisy?
Are they so incompetent? E.g. why are there so many Emails around with no misleading content or subject lines? This never really made sense, to leave such obvious traces. Left and right.

And this is my best theory so far. The Russians actually want to be found out, seen, noticed. And the speculation would be that many won't believe it still, while the others turn more and more desperate about that. Deepen the trenches. Now to the point of this thread - anyone got a better theory for what's going on with the noisy Russians. Any better theory will do, just the "everyone's stupid/incompetent" theory I can not believe any longer.


(PS  hope this only got posted once... I got strange messages about that)

As explained in The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galxy.

http://hitchhikers.wikia.com/wiki/Somebody_Else%27s_Problem_field

Quote:Somebody Else's Problem field, or SEP, is a cheap, easy, and staggeringly useful way of safely protecting something from unwanted eyes. It can run almost indefinitely on a torch (flashlight)/9 volt battery, and is able to do so because it utilises a person's natural tendency to ignore things they don't easily accept, like, for example, aliens at a cricket match. Any object around which an S.E.P. is applied will cease to be noticed, because any problems one may have understanding it (and therefore accepting its existence) become Somebody Else's. An object becomes not so much invisible as unnoticed.

A perfect example of this would be a ship covered in an SEP field at a cricket match. A starship taking the appearance of a large pink elephant is ideal, because you can see it, but because it is so inconceivable, your mind can't accept it. Therefore it can't exist, thus ignoring it comes naturally.

[hollodero]

(12-05-2017, 01:15 PM)GMDino Wrote: As explained in The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galxy.

http://hitchhikers.wikia.com/wiki/Somebody_Else%27s_Problem_field

Hmm... yeeah... something along these lines maybe. Still I'd think the plan would be for some people seeing the elephant and some people refusing to see the elephant, so they'd be all over each other for the respective position. If that's your theory, I'm on board.

[Dill]

(12-05-2017, 01:09 PM)hollodero Wrote: Neb is right... too few threads. Manafort I feel deserves one, at least when attached to a bigger picture.

--- What is Manafort doing? Out on bail for shady Russian stuff, and he runs straight to the next shady Russia-based intelligence-connected individual he can find to work with him.
This can't be explained with stupidity. It really can't. No one can possibly be that stupid, especially not someone like Manafort. And since that is out of the picture for me, my next best theory has to be that the Russians want everyone who "believes the fake news MSM" to know exactly, exactly what they are doing.
The motive could be to further divide those who are Breitbart Trumpers and those who believe things CNN reports. Remember what Comey said back in the day about Russian meddling during his hearing. They are noisy in their efforts, he said, as in remarkably, strangely noisy.
Why would they be noisy?
Are they so incompetent? E.g. why are there so many Emails around with no misleading content or subject lines? This never really made sense, to leave such obvious traces. Left and right.

And this is my best theory so far. The Russians actually want to be found out, seen, noticed. And the speculation would be that many won't believe it still, while the others turn more and more desperate about that. Deepen the trenches. Now to the point of this thread - anyone got a better theory for what's going on with the noisy Russians. Any better theory will do, just the "everyone's stupid/incompetent" theory I can not believe any longer.

You still don't get American politics Hollo.

This behavior is not general, garden variety stupidity. But it is stupidity spun in and around a distinctive worldview--like the combative public statements of Trump's lawyers. They must know what they are doing, right? Legal experts could not REALLY act like that.  But these experts do act like that.

Trump MUST know that tweeting about investigations and offering evidence against yourself thereby is not good practice. But he still does it.  Could the Russians really plan that? 

If you think of stupidity and competence as more worldview-specific, a consequence of blinkered, conspiratorial analyses which mistake enemies for friends and friends for enemies, spiced with real fake news and a heavy dose of cupidity and life-long intellectual laziness, the fog dissipates.

[hollodero]

(12-05-2017, 10:27 PM)Dill Wrote: You still don't get American politics Hollo.

This behavior is not general, garden variety stupidity. But it is stupidity spun in and around a distinctive worldview--like the combative public statements of Trump's lawyers. They must know what they are doing, right? Legal experts could not REALLY act like that.  But these experts do act like that.

Trump MUST know that tweeting about investigations and offering evidence against yourself thereby is not good practice. But he still does it.  Could the Russians really plan that? 

If you think of stupidity and competence as more worldview-specific, a consequence of blinkered, conspiratorial analyses which mistake enemies for friends and friends for enemies, spiced with real fake news and a heavy dose of cupidity and life-long intellectual laziness, the fog dissipates.

No it does not for me. Because what you describe might be more or less accurate for some people, but yes a Paul Manafort simply has to know better. He doesn't fit your description too well. Think of guys like this what you want, but they don't just take Breitbart articles at face value and let it drive their actions. I can no longer accept this explanation. 

Not that "Russians have leverage over him" is so much of a better explanation of course. But if you're Manafort, you just have to know that this will surface eventually, no matter your cupidity or intellectual laziness...
- Who tries to secretly collude and sends an email with the subject line "Russia - Clinton - private and confidential"? I mean, sure it's genius Trump jr., but this is ridiculous. As are indeed the lawyers talking matters in a steakhouse and not even noticing the reporter nearby, as is Trump talking about "we talked adoptions... funny, same thing Don jr. debated". Guccifer, the genius hacker and master of web disguise, talks to Roger Stone on Twitter. They paid for their facebook ads with Rubels... This all and more uber-obvious stuff (I could go on) is sticking one's nose right into it intentionally, I'm no longer intellectually satisfied with calling all these things just utterly stupid.

I admit my thoughts might be hard to follow and they can be dismissed of course, but I can't get around that noise. Trump might be, but Russians aren't that clumsy. I don't know why, but I come to think they hit all these pots intentionally. As if that was part of the plan all along.

[Dill]

(12-05-2017, 11:01 PM)hollodero Wrote: No it does not for me. Because what you describe might be more or less accurate for some people, but yes a Paul Manafort simply has to know better. He doesn't fit your description too well. Think of guys like this what you want, but they don't just take Breitbart articles at face value and let it drive their actions. I can no longer accept this explanation. 

Not that "Russians have leverage over him" is so much of a better explanation of course. But if you're Manafort, you just have to know that this will surface eventually, no matter your cupidity or intellectual laziness...
- Who tries to secretly collude and sends an email with the subject line "Russia - Clinton - private and confidential"? I mean, sure it's genius Trump jr., but this is ridiculous. As are indeed the lawyers talking matters in a steakhouse and not even noticing the reporter nearby, as is Trump talking about "we talked adoptions... funny, same thing Don jr. debated". Guccifer, the genius hacker and master of web disguise, talks to Roger Stone on Twitter. They paid for their facebook ads with Rubels... This all and more uber-obvious stuff (I could go on) is sticking one's nose right into it intentionally, I'm no longer intellectually satisfied with calling all these things just utterly stupid.

I admit my thoughts might be hard to follow and they can be dismissed of course, but I can't get around that noise. Trump might be, but Russians aren't that clumsy. I don't know why, but I come to think they hit all these pots intentionally. As if that was part of the plan all along.

I am speaking of people who "simply have to know better." That is why I mention Trump's high end lawyers.

I don't want to dismiss your thoughts. And I don't see Manafort and Trump's lawyers as Breitbart creatures, wholly. They are right wingers, though. Manafort's career has been making dictators look good to US banks and government. Twisting the truth for money has been his life, and he was drawn to Trump like a moth to flame. He is operating in a milieu of people who break and bend the law, and aggressively characterize legal pushback as evidence the country and government are in the hands of the wrong (liberals!) people--think of Nixon's clumsy henchmen and the Iran Contra crew. These people have competencies, certainly, that lead to their hiring by certain types of political actors and control over large budgets and power, but at some point they act on their simplistic ideological premises and the world outside their groupthink doesn't work as expected. (The last Bush administration fits this category as well.)

The list of "ueber obvious" stuff you relate above cannot be coordinated from a single directing point. Too many undisciplined players. I think it makes better sense to see direction in the multiple Russian contacts with the Trump campaign (which presented a uniquely pervious target), complicated by targets (e.g. Carter Page) displaying unusual initiative, and breathtaking incompetence among all the targets.

Imagining a plan or directive in which Manafort is intended to be caught violating parole while working with people to whom he may be desperately in debt is a tad too far.

[hollodero]

(12-07-2017, 02:09 AM)Dill Wrote: I am speaking of people who "simply have to know better." That is why I mention Trump's high end lawyers.

I don't want to dismiss your thoughts. And I don't see Manafort and Trump's lawyers as Breitbart creatures, wholly. They are right wingers, though. Manafort's career has been making dictators look good to US banks and government. Twisting the truth for money has been his life, and he was drawn to Trump like a moth to flame. He is operating in a milieu of people who break and bend the law, and aggressively characterize legal pushback as evidence the country and government are in the hands of the wrong (liberals!) people--think of Nixon's clumsy henchmen and the Iran Contra crew. These people have competencies, certainly, that lead to their hiring by certain types of political actors and control over large budgets and power, but at some point they act on their simplistic ideological premises and the world outside their groupthink doesn't work as expected.  (The last Bush administration fits this category as well)

Yeah sure, they are probably on the right, that doesn't necessarily mean they hold simplistic premises. I see Manafort rather as an opportunist then an ideologue. These types exist here as well, so maybe I'm projecting, but they usually just use some kind of applied polling and give advice on how to get to people; many of them could be in any party from left to right and just choose based on opportunity. Maybe I'm wrong on Manafort and others, I didn't quite follow these characters for years.
The lawyers... they're something else. No idea what's going on with them. Trump sure picked them wisely...

(12-07-2017, 02:09 AM)Dill Wrote: The list of "ueber obvious" stuff you relate above cannot be coordinated from a single directing point. Too many undisciplined players. I think it makes better sense to see direction in the multiple Russian contacts with the Trump campaign (which presented a uniquely pervious target), complicated by targets (e.g. Carter Page) displaying unusual initiative, and breathtaking incompetence among all the targets.

I agree in principle. It's just when the directive is "leave traces", then it doesn't matter that there are undisciplined players... it even helps them fulfil the task. No coordination necessary if you actually want to be seen and found out. Which I see as a distinct possibility, based on said uber-obvious stuff. "Breathtaking incompetence" on so many parts isn't a more plausible explanation to me.

(12-07-2017, 02:09 AM)Dill Wrote: Imagining a plan or directive in which Manafort is intended to be caught violating parole while working with people to whom he may be desperately in debt is a tad too far.

Yeah, but... oh, but... well... yeah you're right. It is. It just fits the strange pattern.