My bets for the season

[SuperBowlBound!]

(06-25-2022, 05:20 PM)fredtoast Wrote: In '17 and '18 Goff averaged 4200+ yards and 30 tds for a Super Bowl level Rams team.  That was not bad, but nothing compared to what Stafford did when he got on a Super Bowl level Rams team (4886 yds, 41 td).

To be fair to Goff Cooper Cupp was evolving into a great receiver and they did get a much needed OBJ.
They might not get to the Super bowl had they not signed OBJ.

Stafford was 26/40, 283 yards, 3 TD, 2 Int for a 60.8 QBR in the Super Bowl.

Had the Rams defense not dominate the Bengals OL in the second half Stafford would be compared to Goff.

[*SHRacerX*]

(06-24-2022, 01:43 PM)SuperBowlBound! Wrote: Thought I would post my bets for the season.

Last year I bet a total of 1000 and got back $10375. Pretty good year.

i really like the Bengals chances even more this year. As expected the odds are not as great as last year.
I am adding the NFC Detroit Lions to my bet this year. They have pretty good odds.

So here are the bets I placed at BarStool Sports.

Bengals
$1000 Bengals over 9.5 wins - (Even) - Get back $2000
$500 Super Bowl - (22-1) - Get back $11,500
$200 AFC Champion - (12-1) - Get back $2600
$200 AFC North - (Even) - Get back $400
$100 Joe Burrow MVP - (11-1) - Get back $1200
$300 Zac Taylor COY - (100-1) - Get back $3100

Lions
$500 Lions win total over 6.5 - (Even) - Get back $1000
$50 NFC Champion - (50-1) - Get back $2550
$100 NFC North - (Even) - Get back $1100

Total bet would be $2,700
Total return could be $25,450

From a post earlier in the offseason:

Hey all, 

I know I fashion myself as an amateur shark on here, but after last year having Burrow for CPOTY, Chase for OROTY, ZT for COTY (should have won), and the Bengals winning the AFCN, AFC, and Super Bowl....well, to be fair...I do it almost every year, but it happened for the first time this year.

A couple wagers I have some interest in for the 2022 season, in no particular order:

Zac Taylor for COTY. Currently +3200. That means a $100 wager pays $3200. I don't get it. Brandon Staley is +1500??? Based on what? Dumb 4th down decisions? This is an award that always seems to be a year behind. The coach that makes the big postseason run is more in the forefront of everyone's mind the following year. That is Zac. 

Joe Burrow for MVP: +1500. Again, like COTY, runs a year behind. Regular season award. 

Defensive ROTY: CTB +10000 (yes, $100 would pay $10,000) and Dax Hill +3500. One is already moving up due to a potential contract dispute and I am in the minority that if a team knocks the Bengals socks off (first round pick), they could trade Bates. CTB just has to beat out Apple, or have an injury to Apple (not what I want at all..) and he could surprise with what is sure to be a massively improved pass rush.

Bengals to win the Super Bowl: +2100. Sure, they stayed healthy last year, but what team in the NFL improved itself more than the Bengals? They already had the skill positions, and now they have better trenches. 

Some wagers I like from around the league:

Sauce Gardner for DROTY: +900. We know he will start, and there will be tons of media around the Jets.

Derek Carr for MVP: +2700. Really high odds for a guy that will likely be in some shootouts and has some serious weaponry. I also like the Raiders +570 to win the AFC West. Everyone is in love with KC, LA, and Denver, but I like the Raiders. Huge odds to be one of four. 

I also like the Eagles at +3200 to win the Super Bowl and Jalen Hurts +3500 as MVP. I see Dallas taking a huge step back, and the only other teams in the NFC that are at their level (IMHO) are Tampa and the Rams. Hurts has the weapons now, and they have a defense. It could all click for him this year (I am kind of rooting for him, which is usually my downfall...I can't bet on someone like Piggy because I hated him so much) but he could also prove he isn't the guy. Either way, I see the Eagles as boom or bust. 

Alec Pierce for OROTY +5600. Will definitely start and has a ton of potential. Playing in a weak ass conference as well. 

Lastly, I did a wager on the Cowboys to NOT make the playoffs. It was +240. I know I just said the NFC doesn't have much outside Philly, Tampa, and LA, but even though their AFC schedule is the AFC South, they still have a first place schedule and face Tampa, the Bengals, and Rams. I could also see Washington (I always want to call them the Commodores, and have their helmets be big 70s afros) and even the lowly Giants being much tougher this year. It is like what the Pats now face instead of 6 easy conference wins. 

They don't have the odds yet, but last year I did the "Super Bowl Matchups" wagers with the Bengals against the Packers, Bucs, and Rams. Yes, that one paid big time. I will be doing it again with Bengals vs. Eagles, Bucs, and Rams. I am sure the odds will drop significantly. I am also do the same wagers with the Raiders.

[*SHRacerX*]

(06-24-2022, 07:12 PM)pally Wrote: Mike Vrabel won COY for the 2021 season despite essentially the same record as 2020.  He won because the team won despite serious injury issues during the season.  Yes, big improvement is a thing so is overcoming adversity.  In Zac's case, he could win it by exceeding expectations.  The team is picked to be good but we are hearing the voting pundits already rank them 2nd or 3rd in the division and many are saying we won't even make the playoffs.

Yep, I put a small $ on ZT to win COTY last year on upside.  The problem was, he wasn't on anyone's radar in the regular season and it is a regular season award.  If it was including the playoffs, ZT would have won COTY and Burrow would have been MVP.

Your point about Vrabel is spot on.  They made a deep run in 2020 and that got him the attention.

I still can't believe Staley is +1500 and ZT is +3300.  Amazing. 

[*SHRacerX*]

(06-25-2022, 02:36 PM)SuperBowlBound! Wrote: That is what I think as well.

Betting on the Lions gives me something to root for in the NFC.

I did go to the Lions/Bengals game last year in Detroit. If you have never been it is worth the trip.
Easy drive and Detroit was a cool city. I think the downtown area has been revitalized kind of like Cinicnnati.

One of my best friends is a Lions fan, so I always root for them and did some wagers on them as well.  They are incredible odds in a division that I think is wide-open.

My NFC team this year (outside of Detroit) is the Eagles.  A couple work buddies are huge Eagles fans and they really pulled for the Bengals down the stretch last season.  I absolutely love the moves they made and I like that (unlike the Browns) they are giving Hurts a shot with all the new toys.  I think the NFC East sucks aside from them and I could see them being the Bengals of last year in the NFC.  

The only other AFC team I can root for at all is the Raiders.  I just like Derek Carr a great deal, but have no idea what to expect of their coach. 

[SuperBowlBound!]

(06-26-2022, 10:52 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: From a post earlier in the offseason:

Hey all, 

I know I fashion myself as an amateur shark on here, but after last year having Burrow for CPOTY, Chase for OROTY, ZT for COTY (should have won), and the Bengals winning the AFCN, AFC, and Super Bowl....well, to be fair...I do it almost every year, but it happened for the first time this year.

A couple wagers I have some interest in for the 2022 season, in no particular order:

Zac Taylor for COTY. Currently +3200. That means a $100 wager pays $3200. I don't get it. Brandon Staley is +1500??? Based on what? Dumb 4th down decisions? This is an award that always seems to be a year behind. The coach that makes the big postseason run is more in the forefront of everyone's mind the following year. That is Zac. 

Joe Burrow for MVP: +1500. Again, like COTY, runs a year behind. Regular season award. 

Defensive ROTY: CTB +10000 (yes, $100 would pay $10,000) and Dax Hill +3500. One is already moving up due to a potential contract dispute and I am in the minority that if a team knocks the Bengals socks off (first round pick), they could trade Bates. CTB just has to beat out Apple, or have an injury to Apple (not what I want at all..) and he could surprise with what is sure to be a massively improved pass rush.

Bengals to win the Super Bowl: +2100. Sure, they stayed healthy last year, but what team in the NFL improved itself more than the Bengals? They already had the skill positions, and now they have better trenches. 

Some wagers I like from around the league:

Sauce Gardner for DROTY: +900. We know he will start, and there will be tons of media around the Jets.

Derek Carr for MVP: +2700. Really high odds for a guy that will likely be in some shootouts and has some serious weaponry. I also like the Raiders +570 to win the AFC West. Everyone is in love with KC, LA, and Denver, but I like the Raiders. Huge odds to be one of four. 

I also like the Eagles at +3200 to win the Super Bowl and Jalen Hurts +3500 as MVP. I see Dallas taking a huge step back, and the only other teams in the NFC that are at their level (IMHO) are Tampa and the Rams. Hurts has the weapons now, and they have a defense. It could all click for him this year (I am kind of rooting for him, which is usually my downfall...I can't bet on someone like Piggy because I hated him so much) but he could also prove he isn't the guy. Either way, I see the Eagles as boom or bust. 

Alec Pierce for OROTY +5600. Will definitely start and has a ton of potential. Playing in a weak ass conference as well. 

Lastly, I did a wager on the Cowboys to NOT make the playoffs. It was +240. I know I just said the NFC doesn't have much outside Philly, Tampa, and LA, but even though their AFC schedule is the AFC South, they still have a first place schedule and face Tampa, the Bengals, and Rams. I could also see Washington (I always want to call them the Commodores, and have their helmets be big 70s afros) and even the lowly Giants being much tougher this year. It is like what the Pats now face instead of 6 easy conference wins. 

They don't have the odds yet, but last year I did the "Super Bowl Matchups" wagers with the Bengals against the Packers, Bucs, and Rams. Yes, that one paid big time. I will be doing it again with Bengals vs. Eagles, Bucs, and Rams. I am sure the odds will drop significantly. I am also do the same wagers with the Raiders.

I read your post and realized I did not have $300 at 10-1 on ZT for COY. I have $100 at 30-1 for him to win COY.

I like some of your picks like Sauce Gardner and Alec Pierce. How does the SuperBowl Matchups work?

Here is my updated bet after I fixed my mistake.

Bengals

$1000 Bengals over 9.5 wins - (Even) - Get back $2000
$500 Super Bowl - (22-1) - Get back $11,500
$200 AFC Champion - (12-1) - Get back $2600
$200 AFC North - (Even) - Get back $400
$100 Joe Burrow MVP - (11-1) - Get back $1200
$100 Zac Taylor COY - (30-1) - Get back $3100

Lions
$500 Lions win total over 6.5 - (Even) - Get back $1000
$50 NFC Champion - (50-1) - Get back $2550
$100 NFC North - (Even) - Get back $1100

Total bet would be $2,500
Total return could be $25,450

[guyofthetiger]

I wish the best. However, just remember you could lose the whole shabang. I'm not sure the Bengals will dominate as much this season. It took some luck to get to the Super Bowl. As for the Lions, they should improve some. I leave the betting to Vegas.

[*SHRacerX*]

(06-26-2022, 10:29 PM)SuperBowlBound! Wrote: I read your post and realized I did not have $300 at 10-1 on ZT for COY. I have $100 at 30-1 for him to win COY.

I like some of your picks like Sauce Gardner and Alec Pierce. How does the SuperBowl Matchups work?

Here is my updated bet after I fixed my mistake.

Bengals

$1000 Bengals over 9.5 wins - (Even) - Get back $2000
$500 Super Bowl - (22-1) - Get back $11,500
$200 AFC Champion - (12-1) - Get back $2600
$200 AFC North - (Even) - Get back $400
$100 Joe Burrow MVP - (11-1) - Get back $1200
$100 Zac Taylor COY - (30-1) - Get back $3100

Lions
$500 Lions win total over 6.5 - (Even) - Get back $1000
$50 NFC Champion - (50-1) - Get back $2550
$100 NFC North - (Even) - Get back $1100

Total bet would be $2,500
Total return could be $25,450

I use mybookie.com, but their matchup odds haven't been posted yet.

The matchups simply are wagers that two teams face each other in the Super Bowl.  Like, last year the Rams vs. Bengals was something ridiculous like +7700.  

I am kind of down on the Packers this year, but they still  have the weakest path (division) and a solid run game so I will do wagers on the matchup of Bengals vs. Rams, Packers, and Buccaneers all separately.  

FWIW, I did a matchup for baseball of the Reds vs. Toronto and it was something insane like +90000.  Of course, I lost that $10.

[WeezyBengal]

(06-24-2022, 01:54 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Interesting. On that list, I like the over 9.5 the best. Of course, you never know. A key injury here or there.

Burrow as MVP looks good.

The ones I don't like are the Lions one and the Taylor for COY. We made it to the SB last year, so it's going to be hard for Taylor to top that.

But, yeah that's how betting works. I wish you luck and hopefully you win big!

Lions are the sexy pick for surprise team. 

[grampahol]

Can I bet on the pundits being full of excrement? Sounds like a pretty safe bet..

[SuperBowlBound!]

(06-26-2022, 11:35 PM)guyofthetiger Wrote: I wish the best. However, just remember you could lose the whole shabang. I'm not sure the Bengals will dominate as much this season. It took some luck to get to the Super Bowl. As for the Lions, they should improve some. I leave the betting to Vegas.

You are right. I could lose the whole shabang aS you call it.

That is why they call it gambling.

I just really  nee Bengals to win 10 and the Lions to win 7.

[SuperBowlBound!]

(06-27-2022, 08:29 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I use mybookie.com, but their matchup odds haven't been posted yet.

The matchups simply are wagers that two teams face each other in the Super Bowl.  Like, last year the Rams vs. Bengals was something ridiculous like +7700.  

I am kind of down on the Packers this year, but they still  have the weakest path (division) and a solid run game so I will do wagers on the matchup of Bengals vs. Rams, Packers, and Buccaneers all separately.  

FWIW, I did a matchup for baseball of the Reds vs. Toronto and it was something insane like +90000.  Of course, I lost that $10.

Thanks for explaining that. I had no idea you can bet Matchups. Interesting but difficult.

I placed my bet down at Barstool in Indiana.

[KillerGoose]

(06-25-2022, 08:51 PM)SuperBowlBound! Wrote: To be fair to Goff Cooper Cupp was evolving into a great receiver and they did get a much needed OBJ.
They might not get to the Super bowl had they not signed OBJ.

Stafford was 26/40, 283 yards, 3 TD, 2 Int for a 60.8 QBR in the Super Bowl.

Had the Rams defense not dominate the Bengals OL in the second half Stafford would be compared to Goff.

Just for clarification, Stafford had a 60.8 ESPN QBR. A 60.8 ESPN QBR is actually quite good, it would have been the 6th highest mark in the league last season. He had an 89.9 passer rating. The only reason I mention this is I have never seen people use that metric in the wild, and I've seen many people say QBR in reference to normal passer rating. 

[WeezyBengal]

I just put $200 on Joe to win MVP at +1200 odds.

I figure its almost a process of elimination at this point. It's always a QB...so which ones have a chance to win? Joe, Mahomes, Josh Allen, Herbert...maybe Lamar if he bounces back?

I just really like those odds.

[KillerGoose]

(06-29-2022, 09:27 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: I just put $200 on Joe to win MVP at +1200 odds.

I figure its almost a process of elimination at this point. It's always a QB...so which ones have a chance to win? Joe, Mahomes, Josh Allen, Herbert...maybe Lamar if he bounces back?

I just really like those odds.

I would say that these guys have a chance to win...

Rodgers
Mahomes
Burrow
Herbert
Allen
Brady
Prescott (Dark horse)

If I were forced to choose finalists right now, I would say these three guys will be finalists...

1. Brady
2. Herbert/Prescott
3. Burrow
   

[*SHRacerX*]

(06-29-2022, 09:06 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: Just for clarification, Stafford had a 60.8 ESPN QBR. A 60.8 ESPN QBR is actually quite good, it would have been the 6th highest mark in the league last season. He had an 89.9 passer rating. The only reason I mention this is I have never seen people use that metric in the wild, and I've seen many people say QBR in reference to normal passer rating. 

And that was against a defense that Carr, Mahommes, and Tannehill had much worse numbers :)

[*SHRacerX*]

(06-29-2022, 09:27 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: I just put $200 on Joe to win MVP at +1200 odds.

I figure its almost a process of elimination at this point. It's always a QB...so which ones have a chance to win? Joe, Mahomes, Josh Allen, Herbert...maybe Lamar if he bounces back?

I just really like those odds.

I did MVP last year on Joe (which he was if they included post season), and did again this year.  I also bet on Carr and Hurts for MVP because they have really long odds.

If Mayfield signs with Carolina, I will bet on him as well...taking over a turd team with a ton of motivation and week 1 against the Browns.  I don't think he will win, but the odds are something like +7500.  

[SuperBowlBound!]

(06-30-2022, 08:21 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I did MVP last year on Joe (which he was if they included post season), and did again this year.  I also bet on Carr and Hurts for MVP because they have really long odds.

If Mayfield signs with Carolina, I will bet on him as well...taking over a turd team with a ton of motivation and week 1 against the Browns.  I don't think he will win, but the odds are something like +7500.  

Mayfield needs to get to Carolina for a chance to be day 1 starter. Great odds though.

Joe Burrow had the stats and intangibles to win last years MVP. 
I really believe it is an award that is based on a 2 year performance unless the 1 year is so much better than everyone else.
Last year Burrow was in the conversation, hell he was Cowherd pick for  MVP. This year he will have remarkable stats. I think he is going to blow everyone away in 2023 with about 42-45 TD's with only 5 int. That will get it done. I also believe the Bengals will be 10-1 going into the Dec 4th Kansas City game at home.

I love Joe Burrow +1200 to win the MVP.

We just have to hope and prey we have an injury friendly season.

[KillerGoose]

(06-30-2022, 08:18 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: And that was against a defense that Carr, Mahommes, and Tannehill had much worse numbers :)

Mahomes had a better passer rating (91.3), but worse ESPN QBR (40), assuming we are talking about the AFCCG. In the regular season, Mahomes posted significantly better numbers. A 113.9 rating and 87.1 ESPN QBR.

[WeezyBengal]

(06-29-2022, 10:59 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: I would say that these guys have a chance to win...

Rodgers
Mahomes
Burrow
Herbert
Allen
Brady
Prescott (Dark horse)

If I were forced to choose finalists right now, I would say these three guys will be finalists...

1. Brady
2. Herbert/Prescott
3. Burrow
   

I think Rodgers and Mahomes take steps back this year - especially after the pieces they lost. I also am not sold on Dak, especially with the team he has around him. Brady I can maybe see...but I really do think this is the year that age starts to catch up with him (he will prob prove me wrong lol). 

[*SHRacerX*]

(06-30-2022, 09:32 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: Mahomes had a better passer rating (91.3), but worse ESPN QBR (40), assuming we are talking about the AFCCG. In the regular season, Mahomes posted significantly better numbers. A 113.9 rating and 87.1 ESPN QBR.

Right, what I meant when I said that was that when Stafford posted that 60 QBR against the Bengals in the Super Bowl, that was better than Mahomes, Tannehill, or Carr posted in the playoffs against Cincy.