NOV '23 ECONOMIC DATA- Smooth Sailing ahead

[BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI]

Today's Bureau of Labor Statics CPI report, which measures inflation, reports inflation has slowed to 3.1%, so things are now back to normal. This marks the 6th straight month that inflation has been under 4%. (Anything under 4% is normal and we've been there since May'23).  Oil and energy prices have sharply fallen by 25% with gasoline down nearly 10%.  Oil production in the USA is at record levels and it now moving into surplus range.  Unemployment also remains at a 50-year low.  Union productivity is up, and wages continue to outpace inflation.

The market indexes are also at record levels with the:
S&P 500 is up 22% YTD,
DOWJOnes is up 11% YTD, and the
NASDAQ is up 51% YTD.

The outlook for 2024 is the market indexes will continue to outperform, with inflation now back in check and consumer confidence is now on the rise.  Bond yields are declining.  

This signals Blue skies and smooth sailing ahead for 2024.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

[CKwi88]

(12-12-2023, 05:59 PM)BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI Wrote: Today's Bureau of Labor Statics CPI report, which measures inflation, reports inflation has slowed to 3.1%, so things are now back to normal. This marks the 6th straight month that inflation has been under 4%, which is normal.  Oil and energy prices have sharply fallen by 25% with gasoline down nearly 10%.  Oil production in the USA is at record levels and it now moving into surplus range.  Unemployment also remains at a 50-year low.  Union productivity is up, and wages continue to outpace inflation.

The market indexes are also at record levels with the:
S&P 500 is up 22% YTD,
DOWJOnes is up 11% YTD, and the
NASDAQ is up 51% YTD.

The outlook for 2024 is the market indexes will continue to outperform, with inflation now back in check and consumer confidence is now on the rise.  Bond yields are declining.  

This signals Blue skies and smooth sailing ahead for 2024.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

Right on time to elect a GOP Pres and blow it all to hell. 

[NATI BENGALS]

Yea but tell me why Biden keeps raising rent and the price of houses? We all know it's him.

[BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI]

(12-12-2023, 06:01 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: Right on time to elect a GOP Pres and blow it all to hell. 

It took Clinton a few years to fix the mess of the first George HW Bush

It took Obama some time to fix the mess G W Bush left with all the TRAP and "TOO BIG TO FAIL" bail-out money. 

It's taken 3-years of Biden's policies to fix the disasters of the Trump economy that he left in shambles by adding $8-Trillion to our debt and not balancing the budget, manipulating the Federal Reserve threatening to fire the FED Chair Jermome Powel if he dared to raise interest rates, and then printing $Trillions back by nothing during COVID.  All so Billionaires could escape taxes and fly to outer space all the while sticking the middle class with the bill and an environment ripe for hyperinflation.

[BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI]

(12-12-2023, 06:27 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Yea  but tell me why Biden keeps raising rent and the price of houses? We all know it's him.

Raising interest rates (That also includes home mortgages) is done independently by the Federal Reserve and it has to be done from time-to-time to slow down inflation.

[BigPapaKain]

(12-12-2023, 06:31 PM)BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI Wrote: Raising interest rates (That also includes home mortgages) is done independently by the Federal Reserve and it has to be done from time-to-time to slow down inflation.

I think that was the joke.

[BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI]

(12-12-2023, 07:22 PM)BigPapaKain Wrote: I think that was the joke.

I also thought so but that's what the sarcasm sign is for.   There are a few in here who would read that and say, YES, my rent went up and it's all Biden's fault.

[*pally*]

(12-12-2023, 06:31 PM)BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI Wrote: Raising interest rates (That also includes home mortgages) is done independently by the Federal Reserve and it has to be done from time-to-time to slow down inflation.

coupled with big corporations buying up available housing stock at premium prices with all cash offers driving up both the market and subsequent rental prices for those units.

A push for builder's profits coupled with the NIMBY has virtually eliminated any building of lower-income housing 

Apartment complex ownership has been consolidating these big companies also subscribe to a pricing company that uses the same algorithms across a city to set rents.  

IN other words, like in most economic issues there are a myriad of reasons behind increasing costs.

[Luvnit2]

(12-12-2023, 06:01 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: Right on time to elect a GOP Pres and blow it all to hell. 

It was 1.4% in 2020 prior to Trump leaving office. Since that time, in less than 3 years is over 20% inflation.

The lower and middle class feel it, just as they loved the Trump economy.

[Luvnit2]

(12-12-2023, 06:31 PM)BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI Wrote: Raising interest rates (That also includes home mortgages) is done independently by the Federal Reserve and it has to be done from time-to-time to slow down inflation.

You just answered your own post. Due to high (poor inflation) since Biden the Federal Reserve had to raise interest rates to slow down inflation. Who created the inflation with poor fossil fuel and other bad economic policies? in 2020, inflation for 2020 was 1.23%


U.S. inflation rate for 2020 was 1.23%, a 0.58% decline from 2019. U.S. inflation rate for 2019 was 1.81%, a 0.63% decline from 2018.

It is not just interest rates on mortgages, it is auto loans, personal loans and any loan killing people. Add in the student debt Biden promised to get rid of and people are hurting.

Truth be told, the Biden economy is great for me personally. My mortgage is paid off and have a cash now getting much better interest. But, the economy is not about people doing very well, it is an issue for those who are not.

Inflation is now over 20% since Biden took office, it is good to see the trend getting better, but inflation is accumulative, only way people quit feeling it is for wage growth to start outpacing wage growth (by a large margin) or for negative inflation (not likely to happen). The Biden border policy has also negatively impacted the economy, helping wages to stay lower and also more crime (theft, car jacking) equals higher prices.

[BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI]

(12-12-2023, 08:24 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: It was 1.4% in 2020 prior to Trump leaving office. Since that time, in less than 3 years is over 20% inflation.

This political cartoon was made just after Trump decided to print $13-Trillion increasing our paper money supply of over 35% and 60% of GDP.  Yes, Trump rode Obama's economic wave until he couldn't and then screwed us.  Thank Donald Trump for the 20% inflation and thank Biden for bringing it back under control by allowing the Fed to do its job by raising interest rates slowly and not triggering a recession.

[Stewy]

MAGA individuals level of financial knowledge after listening to FOX NEWS, Truth Social and Trump -

[*pally*]

(12-12-2023, 08:45 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: You just answered your own post. Due to high (poor inflation) since Biden the Federal Reserve had to raise interest rates to slow down inflation. Who created the inflation with poor fossil fuel and other bad economic policies? in 2020, inflation for 2020 was 1.23%


U.S. inflation rate for 2020 was 1.23%, a 0.58% decline from 2019. U.S. inflation rate for 2019 was 1.81%, a 0.63% decline from 2018.

It is not just interest rates on mortgages, it is auto loans, personal loans and any loan killing people. Add in the student debt Biden promised to get rid of and people are hurting.

Truth be told, the Biden economy is great for me personally. My mortgage is paid off and have a cash now getting much better interest. But, the economy is not about people doing very well, it is an issue for those who are not.

Inflation is now over 20% since Biden took office, it is good to see the trend getting better, but inflation is accumulative, only way people quit feeling it is for wage growth to start outpacing wage growth (by a large margin) or for negative inflation (not likely to happen). The Biden border policy has also negatively impacted the economy, helping wages to stay lower and also more crime (theft, car jacking) equals higher prices.

It is ludicrous to use economic numbers from 2020 as a positive thing.  The overall economy was in SHAMBLES.  High unemployment. no GDP growth, production down to nothing, and empty store shelves because Trump started a run on stores when he abruptly shut everything down with zero plan or organization to manage it.  There was out-of-control unfocused spending on programs with no guardrails that led to blatant abuse and failed to help the people they were supposed to.


Yeah we had cheap gas but no place to go therefore no demand.  We had low interest rates but overpriced houses.  And loads of financial manipulation from the administration to keep the economy from going 

Trump was saved, in a way, by COVID.  The economy was 1 QTR away from recession numbers.  3rd and 4th QTR 2019 were not positive.  COVID hid the overall slowdown in the economy that we were heading into.  The only number that showed any signigicant growth over the final years of the Obama administration is the stock market.  Everything else reflects the fact he was handed a good, but not great, economy. All he had to do was not screw it up...and he managed to screw it up

We would be in far far worse shape right now if Trump had been reelected...why..HE HAD NO ECONOMIC PLAN!!!!!!!!!!! and he still doesn't

When all is said and done, when our future descendants look at the records of the Presidents, the accomplishments of the Biden administration will rank much much higher than the record of Donald Trump.

[Luvnit2]

Sorry, but the lib Bidenomics success story is not landing with the consumers who in majority feel we are in a recession. But, keep telling them they are not poor, that will fix it. Maybe some of you should own a business for over 27 years or run businesses for over 49 years and get back to me about how economics work. My personal economic plan worked well for me by applying by business knowledge to my personal finances.

As for Fox Business, great resource to learn about economics.

See below, perception is reality. It is not a messaging problem, it was poor Biden politics. Anyone who blows off price of gasoline and not using every fuel resource available to us cares more about fake climate change than they do economic growth. Biden killed gas prices and Trump will drill, drill and drill some more. He will get inflation quickly in check. Only JIMMY CARTER HAS HIGHER INFLATION THAN BIDEN AND BIDEN HAS A SHOT AT BEATING HIM BEFORE HE LEAVES OFFICE.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/majority-americans-us-economy-recession-survey

ECONOMY Published December 12, 2023 3:05pm EST
Majority of Americans feel US economy is in recession: survey
Experts touting the economy have not convinced the American people

The U.S. economy may not technically be in a recession, but most Americans believe it is.That's according to a recent survey conducted by Bankrate, which found 59% of U.S. adults feel like the economy is in a recession, defined by two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

[Luvnit2]

I keep hearing about Trump adding a lot of debt and it is true he did. The two main reasons were the Pandemic and the Trump tax cuts. The Pandemic killed tax revenue as businesses suffered mightily in 2020. Florida and some states starting opening back up in 2021. at least 1 state south Dakota never shut down. Red states opened back up earlier than blue states and New York and California took longer to get everything back up and running.

Trump has the economy on a roll, then the Pandemic hit. His plan was for the decrease in tax revenue to be offset by a great economy, the pandemic killed that plan. Below is a USA Today fact check. IN raw dollars, Obama increased our debt the most, but to be fair that was 8 years and Trump had 4 and Biden is yet to have 3 years.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2023/05/30/no-trump-didnt-increase-the-debt-more-than-any-president-fact-check/70252480007/

The claim: Trump increased the debt 'far more than any president in history'
A May 17 Facebook post (direct link, archive link) shows a black and white image of several members of Congress gathered together.

The post criticized Republicans for "attacks on the poor and the sick with the threat of catastrophic debt default," then made a claim about former President Donald Trump:

"Trump increased that debt far more than any president in history," the post says in part. "Under Trump, Republicans − and Democrats − had no objection to raising the debt ceiling three times."
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries shared a similar claim on Twitter that garnered over 11,000 likes. A version of that post was posted on Facebook by the left-wing account Occupy Democrats and shared more than 900 times.
Our rating: False
The total federal debt increased more under the Obama administration in terms of raw dollars than any other president, according to government data. Experts say it is difficult to determine how much debt one president is responsible for since spending and policies can carry over from one administration to the next.
Obama incurred more debt than any other president
The post comes after weeks of standstill between President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy over the issue of raising the debt ceiling, which limits how much the government can borrow, as USA TODAY reported.

But contrary to the post’s claim, the total federal debt increased more under former President Barack Obama than it did under the Trump administration, according to David Primo, a political science and business administration professor at the University of Rochester.
There are different ways of measuring debt, experts said.

Using Treasury Department data, the total public debt, which includes intragovernmental holdings and public debt, increased by approximately $7.8 trillion from the start of Trump’s presidency on Jan. 20, 2017, to when he left office on Jan. 19, 2021. Under Obama, however, the public debt increased by about $9.3 trillion from when he was inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2009, to when he left office on Jan. 19, 2017.

Some experts look at debt accumulated each fiscal year, which starts Oct. 1 of a given calendar year and ends Sept. 30 of the next year, according to Primo. That yields similar results.

[Luvnit2]

How much has debt risen under Biden? Keep in mind only through July of 2023.
https://www.self.inc/blog/us-national-debt-under-biden

U.S. National Debt Under Biden
By Michelle Lambright Black
Published on: 09/01/2023

Key statistics
The national debt under Biden has risen from $27.8 trillion in January 2021 to $32.6 trillion in July 2023.
In the first two and a half years of President Biden’s time in the White House, the national debt has increased by $4.8 trillion.
The pause in federal student loan payments costs taxpayers more than $5 billion per month.[/b]
After President Biden signed into law legislation that suspended the debt limit, the national debt increased by $1 trillion in just five weeks.
The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 10 times since President Biden has been in office in an effort to bring inflation under control.

THERE IS MORE TO THE ARTICLE. BIDEN'S INFLATION CAUSED A RISE IN INTEREST RATES THE US PAYS ON OUR DEBT. OUR CREDIT RATING UNDER BIDEN HAS ALSO GOTTEN WORSE, CAUSING MORE INTEREST

[Belsnickel]

The economy was in a crisis moment during the pandemic. Wasn't because of the former or current POTUS. The world was in turmoil and the economies took a dive on a global scale. Trump tried to deny the problem. When Biden took office, he worked with Congress to enact policies to plug the holes. The Fed did their thing and worked to slow inflation by raising rates. Surprise surprise, it worked. All of this while Republican lawmakers did their best to stand in the way of efforts to improve the situation and took credit for things they voted against because it turned out to work well for their people. Now our economy is the best among developed nations coming out of the pandemic. We have seen the strongest recovery of any G20 nation and some people would like to tell you that it's a failure of policy. They're wrong at best, brainwashed at worst.

The fact is that Biden and the Democratic lawmakers in Congress, as well as the Fed, helped to ensure a softer landing coming out of the pandemic than would have otherwise happened. It was always going to result in some bumps and bruises, maybe even a broken bone, but the direction we were heading was full on body cast with traction.

[Goalpost]

So the info about the CPI number.... It ticked up .1 vs the prior month. Up meaning, we were a hair more inflationary last month vs the prior. Powell will likely say no relief of cuts coming yet. People were hoping for an eventual March rate cut...now June is iffy.

Also...We are stuck in the same continual pattern.......

Bad news...poor employment/wages... can lead to good news... rate cuts.

Good news...increased employment/wages does the opposite and stalls rate cuts.

[*pally*]

(12-12-2023, 08:45 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: You just answered your own post. Due to high (poor inflation) since Biden the Federal Reserve had to raise interest rates to slow down inflation. Who created the inflation with poor fossil fuel and other bad economic policies? in 2020, inflation for 2020 was 1.23%


U.S. inflation rate for 2020 was 1.23%, a 0.58% decline from 2019. U.S. inflation rate for 2019 was 1.81%, a 0.63% decline from 2018.

It is not just interest rates on mortgages, it is auto loans, personal loans and any loan killing people. Add in the student debt Biden promised to get rid of and people are hurting.

Truth be told, the Biden economy is great for me personally. My mortgage is paid off and have a cash now getting much better interest. But, the economy is not about people doing very well, it is an issue for those who are not.

Inflation is now over 20% since Biden took office, it is good to see the trend getting better, but inflation is accumulative, only way people quit feeling it is for wage growth to start outpacing wage growth (by a large margin) or for negative inflation (not likely to happen). The Biden border policy has also negatively impacted the economy, helping wages to stay lower and also more crime (theft, car jacking) equals higher prices.

You keep throwing out this 20% inflation number. Can you please provide a source? Official numbers are less than half that number

[Luvnit2]

(12-13-2023, 09:26 AM)pally Wrote: You keep throwing out this 20% inflation number.  Can you please provide a source? Official numbers are less than half that number

Read the entire article and maybe you and others will understand. rump was at 5.6% for his entire Presidency (PIR), see below.

https://rollcall.com/2023/09/20/latest-inflation-data-shows-americans-are-still-not-buying-bidenomics/


Biden, apparently, doesn’t realize that his economic program has not only failed to fix the economy, it has actually made things worse for average Americans. When inflation outpaces wage growth, people instinctively know it isn’t working for them or their families.


The CPI that is usually reported reflects the impact of Bidenomics’ year-over-year rate, while the Presidential Inflation Rate measures the rate of inflation (based on CPI data) by contrasting the CPI from the presidential inauguration month with the current month. This paints a more comprehensive picture of the scale of inflation over a presidency.

Since President Biden took office, prices have increased cumulatively by 17.4 percent, while hourly wages have increased only 13 percent. In looking at the past seven presidents, only Jimmy Carter had a bigger inflation rate, 26.2 percent, at a similar point in his presidency. For the past four presidents, their Presidential Inflation Rate was in single digits, and, specifically, Biden’s PIR is triple that of where Donald Trump (5.6 percent) and George W. Bush (5.4 percent) were at this point in their first terms.

Despite Democrats’ relentless efforts to claim otherwise, Biden’s economic track record is lacking at best. Yes, inflation has come down from the near historic highs people lived through in 2022, but prices continue to rise significantly, just at a slower rate.