06-03-2021, 10:25 AM
Not a done deal yet--the confirming vote is next Thursday--but it looks like Netanyahu is out.
So what will Israeli politics be like now--paralysis, return to the center, or new boss the same as the old Boss?
I choose to lead with this article for its illuminating analogy to U.S. politics.
Strange Political Bedfellows: Why the Israeli right and left are teaming up to unseat Benjamin Netanyahu.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/03/briefing/israel-coalition-netanyahu-bennett.html
On ideological grounds, the Israeli coalition that’s on the verge of ending Benjamin Netanyahu’s long tenure as prime minister does not make a lot of sense.
It includes eight parties, drawn from the hard right, the left and the center — and one Arab party. A more intuitive governing coalition would have comprised only of parties on the right, which together hold a slim majority of Israel’s Parliament.
The largest of the conservative parties, by far, is Likud, which Netanyahu leads. As the prime minister for the past 12 years, he has accomplished much of what the Israeli right has long wanted. He has supported Jewish settlements in heavily Palestinian areas, stepped back from the peace process and reduced the chances of a two-state solution.
Yet many of his allies, led by Naftali Bennett, who once worked as Netanyahu’s chief of staff, are dumping him to work with a coalition that includes social democrats and greens (and an Islamic party). It would be akin to Mitch McConnell abandoning Donald Trump to work with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Chuck Schumer — and Ocasio-Cortez and Schumer saying yes.
Like Mitch and A.O.C. The McConnell-Trump analogy turns out to be quite useful for understanding Israeli politics.
Netanyahu — like Trump, his ally in global affairs — is the subject of serious allegations of abuse of government. Prosecutors indicted Netanyahu on corruption charges in 2019, and the trial has been delayed partly because of Covid-19 restrictions. The indictment accuses him of altering policies to benefit businessmen, in exchange for a combination of favorable media coverage and nearly $300,000 in gifts. He has denied the charges and called them an attempt by unelected bureaucrats to force him from office.
His attempts to fend off the charges and remain in power have left many Israelis worried about a collapse in judicial independence and the rule of law, much as Democrats were anxious about Trump’s norm-breaking, . . . But there is also a big difference: While Republicans have overwhelmingly stood by Trump, a meaningful number of Netanyahu’s ideological allies have chosen to break with him.
Yifat Shasha-Biton, whose conservative New Hope party is in the coalition that is set to take power, recently said that Netanyahu told “lies without blinking” and was “setting Israel on the path to one-man rule.” Isabel Kershner ... said many right-wing politicians see Netanyahu “as no longer fit to rule.”
Another factor is that many on the political right feel more secure about Israel’s approach to Palestinian issues than in the past. They no longer fear that major compromises to achieve a two-state solution are imminent. “They can afford to step back,” Makovsky said.
Will Netanyahu return?
The parliamentary math means that the right-wing parties have to make the hard choice between sticking with Netanyahu and finding partners from the center and the left. There is no conservative majority without Netanyahu’s Likud party — and there are large ideological differences between the right and the center-left, especially on Palestinian issues.
Those differences help explain why it took so long to arrive at last night’s outcome. Israel has held four elections since 2019, with the first three ending in failed attempts to form a lasting government.
“The political crisis in Israel is unprecedented on a global level,” Bennett said in a speech on Sunday. “We could end up with fifth, sixth, even 10th elections, dismantling the walls of the country, brick by brick, until our house falls in on us. Or we can stop the madness and take responsibility.”
Over the last few days, factions from the right, center and left decided that they wanted to be done with Netanyahu. They agreed to a power-sharing agreement in which Bennett and his nationalist Yamina party would hold the prime minister’s position for the first half of the four-year term, to be followed by Yair Lapid, of the centrist Yesh Atid party, who would hold it for the second half.
To keep the coalition together, they have vowed to avoid new policies on Israeli-Palestinian issues at the beginning and to focus on areas where compromise seems more plausible, like education and infrastructure. “The roads are snarled in traffic, the intensive-care units were overwhelmed even before the pandemic, the schools are among the developed world’s worst,” David Halbfinger, a former Times Jerusalem bureau chief, says.
So what will Israeli politics be like now--paralysis, return to the center, or new boss the same as the old Boss?
I choose to lead with this article for its illuminating analogy to U.S. politics.
Strange Political Bedfellows: Why the Israeli right and left are teaming up to unseat Benjamin Netanyahu.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/03/briefing/israel-coalition-netanyahu-bennett.html
On ideological grounds, the Israeli coalition that’s on the verge of ending Benjamin Netanyahu’s long tenure as prime minister does not make a lot of sense.
It includes eight parties, drawn from the hard right, the left and the center — and one Arab party. A more intuitive governing coalition would have comprised only of parties on the right, which together hold a slim majority of Israel’s Parliament.
The largest of the conservative parties, by far, is Likud, which Netanyahu leads. As the prime minister for the past 12 years, he has accomplished much of what the Israeli right has long wanted. He has supported Jewish settlements in heavily Palestinian areas, stepped back from the peace process and reduced the chances of a two-state solution.
Yet many of his allies, led by Naftali Bennett, who once worked as Netanyahu’s chief of staff, are dumping him to work with a coalition that includes social democrats and greens (and an Islamic party). It would be akin to Mitch McConnell abandoning Donald Trump to work with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Chuck Schumer — and Ocasio-Cortez and Schumer saying yes.
Like Mitch and A.O.C. The McConnell-Trump analogy turns out to be quite useful for understanding Israeli politics.
Netanyahu — like Trump, his ally in global affairs — is the subject of serious allegations of abuse of government. Prosecutors indicted Netanyahu on corruption charges in 2019, and the trial has been delayed partly because of Covid-19 restrictions. The indictment accuses him of altering policies to benefit businessmen, in exchange for a combination of favorable media coverage and nearly $300,000 in gifts. He has denied the charges and called them an attempt by unelected bureaucrats to force him from office.
His attempts to fend off the charges and remain in power have left many Israelis worried about a collapse in judicial independence and the rule of law, much as Democrats were anxious about Trump’s norm-breaking, . . . But there is also a big difference: While Republicans have overwhelmingly stood by Trump, a meaningful number of Netanyahu’s ideological allies have chosen to break with him.
Yifat Shasha-Biton, whose conservative New Hope party is in the coalition that is set to take power, recently said that Netanyahu told “lies without blinking” and was “setting Israel on the path to one-man rule.” Isabel Kershner ... said many right-wing politicians see Netanyahu “as no longer fit to rule.”
Another factor is that many on the political right feel more secure about Israel’s approach to Palestinian issues than in the past. They no longer fear that major compromises to achieve a two-state solution are imminent. “They can afford to step back,” Makovsky said.
Will Netanyahu return?
The parliamentary math means that the right-wing parties have to make the hard choice between sticking with Netanyahu and finding partners from the center and the left. There is no conservative majority without Netanyahu’s Likud party — and there are large ideological differences between the right and the center-left, especially on Palestinian issues.
Those differences help explain why it took so long to arrive at last night’s outcome. Israel has held four elections since 2019, with the first three ending in failed attempts to form a lasting government.
“The political crisis in Israel is unprecedented on a global level,” Bennett said in a speech on Sunday. “We could end up with fifth, sixth, even 10th elections, dismantling the walls of the country, brick by brick, until our house falls in on us. Or we can stop the madness and take responsibility.”
Over the last few days, factions from the right, center and left decided that they wanted to be done with Netanyahu. They agreed to a power-sharing agreement in which Bennett and his nationalist Yamina party would hold the prime minister’s position for the first half of the four-year term, to be followed by Yair Lapid, of the centrist Yesh Atid party, who would hold it for the second half.
To keep the coalition together, they have vowed to avoid new policies on Israeli-Palestinian issues at the beginning and to focus on areas where compromise seems more plausible, like education and infrastructure. “The roads are snarled in traffic, the intensive-care units were overwhelmed even before the pandemic, the schools are among the developed world’s worst,” David Halbfinger, a former Times Jerusalem bureau chief, says.
![[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]](https://i.imgur.com/4CV0TeR.png)
