New Poll September 12, 2023

[Luvnit2]

New polls out Monday Sept. 25

Another poll has Trump +5 (outside the margin of error)

Is DNC getting concerned yet?

Monday, September 25
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
2024 Republican Presidential Nomination The Messenger/HarrisX Trump 56, DeSantis 14, Ramaswamy 5, Haley 5, Pence 3, Scott 2, Christie 2, Burgum 1, Hutchinson 1 Trump +42
2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination The Messenger/HarrisX Biden 62, Kennedy 16, Williamson 6 Biden +46
General Election: Trump vs. Biden The Messenger/HarrisX Trump 46, Biden 41 Trump +5
President Biden Job Approval The Messenger/HarrisX Approve 40, Disapprove 56 Disapprove +16
President Biden Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 44, Disapprove 54 Disapprove +10

[*pally*]

nope...polls more than a year out are notoriously inaccurate and the front-runner the year prior to the election almost never wins.

[KillerGoose]

Nate Silver is my go to on this topic and he actually talks about this here.

It is a good read. As an aggregate, Biden and Trump are "roughly tied" in polls. It's way too early to pay much attention to polling results, let alone individual polls. However, it is also fair for Democrats to be concerned about Biden's chances. He has issues that are running out of time to be addressed. I'll let those who are interested read the rest of the article.

TL;DR - Trump is up in some polls, yes. However, as an aggregate, they are roughly tied. It is too soon to be taking polls seriously, but Biden does face serious challenges that need to be addressed.

[NATI BENGALS]

If trump is the republican in the running it should be a landslide victory for the Dems as long as they don’t run Biden or Harris

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(09-25-2023, 01:40 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Nate Silver is my go to on this topic and he actually talks about this here.

It is a good read. As an aggregate, Biden and Trump are "roughly tied" in polls. It's way too early to pay much attention to polling results, let alone individual polls. However, it is also fair for Democrats to be concerned about Biden's chances. He has issues that are running out of time to be addressed. I'll let those who are interested read the rest of the article.

TL;DR - Trump is up in some polls, yes. However, as an aggregate, they are roughly tied. It is too soon to be taking polls seriously, but Biden does face serious challenges that need to be addressed.

I read an interesting article recently (I'll try and find it) on the swing in EC votes due to population shifts away from deep blue states such as NY and CA.  It related that several EC votes have moved from them to either reliably red states, such as FL, or purple red leaning states such as AZ.  Essentially the shift gives a GOP candidate a much easier path to victory than before.

[KillerGoose]

(09-25-2023, 01:57 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: I read an interesting article recently (I'll try and find it) on the swing in EC votes due to population shifts away from deep blue states such as NY and CA.  It related that several EC votes have moved from them to either reliably red states, such as FL, or purple red leaning states such as AZ.  Essentially the shift gives a GOP candidate a much easier path to victory than before.

If you find it, I would be interested in reading it. I have been curious if the emigration to purple states would have much of an impact on voting results but I haven't actually looked into it further. It doesn't really surprise me that it is the case. I was just having a conversation with my in-laws about the influx of Californians we are seeing into our local area and they said something along the lines of "Go back to Cali". I mentioned that it could be possible (likely?) that people who are leaving California are majority red leaning and are seeking out red states to further align with their values. Specifically California, it is a huge state with plenty of conservative voters who are overwhelmed by the massive metro areas.

[Luvnit2]

(09-25-2023, 02:10 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: If you find it, I would be interested in reading it. I have been curious if the emigration to purple states would have much of an impact on voting results but I haven't actually looked into it further. It doesn't really surprise me that it is the case. I was just having a conversation with my in-laws about the influx of Californians we are seeing into our local area and they said something along the lines of "Go back to Cali". I mentioned that it could be possible (likely?) that people who are leaving California are majority red leaning and are seeking out red states to further align with their values. Specifically California, it is a huge state with plenty of conservative voters who are overwhelmed by the massive metro areas.

I agree these poll results are way out. The reason I post them is states have voting deadlines for a presidential candidate to apply to be able to be on the ballot. The first is Nevada on October 16, That is not fare away. If no other Democrat applies besides RFK Jr. and Williamson and Biden, then if Biden continues to dive chances are a landslide victory in Nevada for the GOP in Presidential race and down ballot races. If a Democrat does register in Nevada, then it may cause a stir within the DNC.

The WAPO/ABC poll has Joe Biden severely underwater on his handling of immigration. I know liberals will try and pin the poor immigration policies on the GOP, but the fact is the same laws of Congress are on the books when both Obama and Trump were president. The difference is the Biden admin. is not only not applying the laws, but encouraging illegal immigrants to enter into the country illegally. The goal may be for them to also be able to vote in a federal election, but I don't see that happening in 2024.

[Luvnit2]

(09-25-2023, 01:43 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: If trump is the republican in the running it should be a landslide victory for the Dems as long as they don’t run Biden or Harris

I understand you and many liberals hate Trump. The problem is the issues facing the country in 2023 are:

1. Economy - Trump has a great record with lower and middle class including blacks, hispanics and women did well under the Trump economy.
2. Illegal Immigration (securing the border) - just look at Trump policies and number entering into the US illegally under Trump and Biden (democrats have defended Biden's policies).
3. Abortion - Trump believes in nailing down a number of legal abortion other than health of the mother. It appears he is looking at 15 weeks. 82% of Americans polled believe abortion should be illegal (except for health issues to the mother) after 15 weeks.
4. School choice and parents raising children versus the government. This is a huge issue in red and purple states. It is also an issue with black parents who feel their children are stuck in bad public schools. Today we learned a lot of black schools in Maryland have a 0% efficiency in math, yes 0 %. That is brutal. 
5. Trump is the only President who did not start a war. In Biden's case, he has spent over 120 billion on Ukraine and has a horrible record on how he pulled out of Afghanistan. People died and we lost billions of dollars in weapons and equipment, the Taliban now has our weapons.

My point is the issues we face today, Trump has a great history of improving those issues. Biden's policies have killed the economy. why would any Democrat be trusted with fixing illegal immigration and the economy? If so, who is this candidate and their record on fixing these issues. it is the independents who will control the 2024 election, not liberals or conservatives. Democrats are not polling well with Independents, but long way to go.

[BigPapaKain]

(09-25-2023, 02:43 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I understand you and many liberals hate Trump. The problem is the issues facing the country in 2023 are:

1. Economy - Trump has a great record with lower and middle class including blacks, hispanics and women did well under the Trump economy.
2. Illegal Immigration (securing the border) - just look at Trump policies and number entering into the US illegally under Trump and Biden (democrats have defended Biden's policies).
3. Abortion - Trump believes in nailing down a number of legal abortion other than health of the mother. It appears he is looking at 15 weeks. 82% of Americans polled believe abortion should be illegal (except for health issues to the mother) after 15 weeks.
4. School choice and parents raising children versus the government. This is a huge issue in red and purple states. It is also an issue with black parents who feel their children are stuck in bad public schools. Today we learned a lot of black schools in Maryland have a 0% efficiency in math, yes 0 %. That is brutal. 
5. Trump is the only President who did not start a war. In Biden's case, he has spent over 120 billion on Ukraine and has a horrible record on how he pulled out of Afghanistan. People died and we lost billions of dollars in weapons and equipment, the Taliban now has our weapons.

My point is the issues we face today, Trump has a great history of improving those issues. Biden's policies have killed the economy. why would any Democrat be trusted with fixing illegal immigration and the economy? If so, who is this candidate and their record on fixing these issues. it is the independents who will control the 2024 election, not liberals or conservatives. Democrats are not polling well with Independents, but long way to go.

I'm trying to imagine believing any of that and I just can't.

But you also left out how he wants to prosecute people he don't like for treason if he wins. Given your track record for the weaponization of government bodies, I'm sure that just twists your knickers all up (he says, knowing damn well you'll hand wave it off).

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(09-25-2023, 02:10 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: If you find it, I would be interested in reading it. I have been curious if the emigration to purple states would have much of an impact on voting results but I haven't actually looked into it further. It doesn't really surprise me that it is the case. I was just having a conversation with my in-laws about the influx of Californians we are seeing into our local area and they said something along the lines of "Go back to Cali". I mentioned that it could be possible (likely?) that people who are leaving California are majority red leaning and are seeking out red states to further align with their values. Specifically California, it is a huge state with plenty of conservative voters who are overwhelmed by the massive metro areas.

Found it.

https://www.newsweek.com/very-bad-electoral-college-news-democrats-opinion-1828611

Newsweek isn't in my usual morning reading routine, not sure how I stumbled across this.

[Luvnit2]

(09-25-2023, 06:00 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: Found it.

https://www.newsweek.com/very-bad-electoral-college-news-democrats-opinion-1828611

Newsweek isn't in my usual morning reading routine, not sure how I stumbled across this.

I am sure liberals will do their best to spin the article. Some just can't imagine any of the article being true. 

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(09-25-2023, 06:10 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I am sure liberals will do their best to spin the article. Some just can't imagine any of the article being true. 

I find it more interesting than anything.  It's a rather unintended, and unforeseen, consequence of people fleeing high cost of living blue states.  A childhood friend of mine moved to Tennessee last year after his job let him convert to almost 100% telework.  He couldn't be happier, not having his friend group around aside.

[Luvnit2]

(09-25-2023, 06:40 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: I find it more interesting than anything.  It's a rather unintended, and unforeseen, consequence of people fleeing high cost of living blue states.  A childhood friend of mine moved to Tennessee last year after his job let him convert to almost 100% telework.  He couldn't be happier, not having his friend group around aside.

I moved from Ohio to Florida, no state income tax or city taxes. I do miss my family and friends but being retired I can go home several times a year and my family and friends visit us to get away from winter weather.

I have met people from NY, NJ, Mass., Minnesota, California and all over the US. I live in a  new 57 house subdivision and have yet to meet one family born and raised in Florida who bought a house here. Most come for the weather and to escape the high taxes.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(09-25-2023, 07:56 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I moved from Ohio to Florida, no state income tax or city taxes. I do miss my family and friends but being retired I can go home several times a year and my family and friends visit us to get away from winter weather.

I have met people from NY, NJ, Mass., Minnesota, California and all over the US. I live in a  new 57 house subdivision and have yet to meet one family born and raised in Florida who bought a house here. Most come for the weather and to escape the high taxes.

I've been here since '86, so the concept of a real winter is a distant memory for me.  But it must really suck for Florida's insane humidity to be a welcome trade off.  We did a Disney World trip within the past few years and it felt like I was taking a boiling shower after a minute of being outside.

[Goalpost]

(09-25-2023, 07:56 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I moved from Ohio to Florida, no state income tax or city taxes. I do miss my family and friends but being retired I can go home several times a year and my family and friends visit us to get away from winter weather.

I have met people from NY, NJ, Mass., Minnesota, California and all over the US. I live in a  new 57 house subdivision and have yet to meet one family born and raised in Florida who bought a house here. Most come for the weather and to escape the high taxes.

I am retired and Florida is still a consideration.  I'm 62.  It does get hot and there is hurricane stuff to consider.  But I like golfing and used to fish a lot when I was younger.  I also like the foliage of palm trees etc and the bird wildlife etc.  And not paying state taxes is certainly welcome.  I even pay city taxes and school taxes currently.  

[KillerGoose]

(09-25-2023, 06:00 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: Found it.

https://www.newsweek.com/very-bad-electoral-college-news-democrats-opinion-1828611

Newsweek isn't in my usual morning reading routine, not sure how I stumbled across this.

Thanks for posting it. The scenarios they laid out are very interesting and concerning for Democrats. I wouldn't be too worried about losing Arizona but Wisconsin, Georgia, and Pennsylvania? Absolutely. 

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(09-27-2023, 12:06 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Thanks for posting it. The scenarios they laid out are very interesting and concerning for Democrats. I wouldn't be too worried about losing Arizona but Wisconsin, Georgia, and Pennsylvania? Absolutely. 

No problem.  Although I see AZ being red before I see PA.  The influx of Californians into AZ has definitely made it purple, but I think it still tilts red.  Lake lost because she's an effing disaster.  I wouldn't be at all shocked if Sinema's seat goes back to the GOP next election and if someone other than Trump was the nominee then AZ would absolutely go red for POTUS.