North Korea just looking for a fight?

[Au165]

(08-29-2016, 02:36 PM)Bmoreblitz Wrote: Unless China gets involved.

Giving ground strategically or not, the good guys would still lose a lot of lives. And that is not acceptable. 

If China gets involved there are whole other issues. At that point South Korea is probably the least of our worries.

[treee]

(08-29-2016, 02:38 PM)Au165 Wrote: If China gets involved there are whole other issues. At that point South Korea is probably the least of our worries.

I don't see a reason why China would get involved, especially if North Korea was the aggressor. They have a huge interest in keeping a peaceful relationship with NATO as trade allies.

[*bfine32*]

Given it's been a lifetime since I've been in Korea this battle would be fought with indirect fires and Infantry. Armored vehicles would be absolutely useless and wheeled vehicles not much better. If N. Korea every truly launched an attack, we wouldn't "skin our knuckles" in a ground fight. It would be shock and awe on a whole other level.

[Bilbo Saggins]

(08-28-2016, 12:34 PM)Yojimbo Wrote: His father pulled the same shit for two reasons:

1) It allows him to keep control of his people by "showing" them how "strong" N. Korea is.

2) Antagonize the international community until an agreement is made to not launch missiles and then he gets sanctions relaxed and lots of free food and money.

Pretty much this.  I took an international politics course and one of the nations that were focused on was North Korea.  The prof said that the DPRK regime has 2 goals: to survive by maintaining its political stranglehold and to bilk as much foreign aid as they possibly can.  Kim Jong-Il recognized a pattern where if he made a lot of noise then the international community would give him aid in order to placate him.  It worked well enough to repeat the strategy many times.  His son is merely picking up the old playbook and trying to keep his regime's political stranglehold intact.  

Interestingly enough, Kim Jong-Un is trying to attract foreign investment with special "free trade zones" at the same time as he's trying to puff out his chest.  Perhaps he's come to the realization that the old strategy has gotten stale?

http://38north.org/2015/11/sez112315/
http://blogs.wsj.com/frontiers/2015/09/15/veteran-investor-expects-explosive-growth-in-north-korea/

[*bfine32*]

They continue to thumb their nose at the rest of the world:

http://www.ibtimes.com/north-korea-fifth-nuclear-test-update-world-reactions-kim-jong-uns-provocative-2413541#.

Quote:U.S. President Barack Obama said Friday that North Korea will face "serious consequences" over any provocative actions. His comments came as Pyongyang confirmed it successfully conducted a fifth nuclear test in response to international sanctions against the reclusive country following its previous nuclear test and long-range rocket launch in January and February.

[Millhouse]

Nobody can do anything about them, nor do anything outside of what is currently being done with sanctions. Only thing that would work at this point is an all out war with them, and that will never happen unless they provoke it first. And it definitely is a conundrum countries like ours is facing, because no one wants see mass amounts of casualties fighting them, from our people to the politicians. However in a few years or however long it will take from now, NK will have the capability of wiping out millions of people over here and elsewhere. All it will take is one nuke hitting a major city or cities, and by then it will be too late. So really what can be done to prevent that, nothing outside of lots of bloodshed, which wont happen.

[treee]

The general consensus is that we're just waiting for the regime to collapse due to extreme poverty but the fascist state really keeps the population under their thumb. The real question is how does one reach the general population of a country so largely oppressed from information? That is the only thing keeping the state under fascist control is the lack of the free flow of information.

[SunsetBengal]

(09-09-2016, 07:55 PM)treee Wrote: The general consensus is that we're just waiting for the regime to collapse due to extreme poverty but the fascist state really keeps the population under their thumb. The real question is how does one reach the general population of a country so largely oppressed from information? That is the only thing keeping the state under fascist control is the lack of the free flow of information.

Unfortunately, the only way is to wait for them to become aggressive, and then topple the regime.  Then the people will be free to learn and make their own choices.  But, that is cloud talk, as evidenced when Nations of people have been freed from a dictator in the Middle East.  If tyranny is what they know, it is culture shock to move from it.

[BmorePat87]

Kim Jong-un knows he can talk big and get away with it. He puts on a show for his people to keep his regime in power. The only way he ever attacks if it his regime is on the brink of collapse and he thinks war can unite his people. Given how in the dark his people are, I don't know if they'll ever get to the point where they're willing to rise up in large enough numbers.

[McC]

(09-10-2016, 03:37 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: Kim Jong-un knows he can talk big and get away with it. He puts on a show for his people to keep his regime in power. The only way he ever attacks if it his regime is on the brink of collapse and he thinks war can unite his people. Given how in the dark his people are, I don't know if they'll ever get to the point where they're willing to rise up in large enough numbers.

Maybe if he actually fed them, they might.  Since he doesn't, they won't.

[Bengalzona]

North Korea exists solely because China wants it to. This is why they intervened in the last war (which technically is still going on as there was never an armistice or peace treaty signed, only a cease fire agreement). China wants it to exist because they don't want a unified (and especially a democratic) Korea next door to them. That is a serious threat to them. They would much rather have a puppet state, no matter how loony their leadership, since the North Koreans are sane enough to know they would not exist without China.

The story of China since the communist took over has been about them seeking security. One aspect of this has been internally, among their own population. A second aspect has been along their borders. The third aspect is internationally. The second aspect is more important to the Chinese than what most Americans understand. Here in the U.S., we have two neighbors and haven't had a serious threat of invasion from either since the early 19th century. China shares borders with fourteen different countries (North Korea, Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam). Four of those countries (North Korea, India, Russia and Pakistan) have nuclear weapons. How would you like to have that as neighbors? In the past 60 years, China has had border wars with Russia, Vietnam, and India (x3). They have territorial claims on the Kashmir region of northeast Pakistan and Afghanistan, which puts them at odds with two other nuclear powers (India and Pakistan - this is a primary reason for nuclear proliferation in south central asia). The Chinese are also concerned with outside influences on border areas. That threatens internal security. There are longstanding separatist movements in Tibet and in the Xinjiang Province in the far northwest of China. For the Chinese to have their border with North Korea to be an area they don't need to be concerned about is critical with so many other things going on.

North Korea is also a political tool. If the U.S. wants North Korea to do something or not do something, we often have to go through China. And guess who that benefits? The Chinese, of course.

I have little doubt that, if we were resolved to do so, we could successfully invade North Korea. And we may yet do that if they reach a point where they can miniaturize their nukes enough to put them on warheads and have rockets which can reach Hawaii or other parts of the U.S. (estimated to occur within the next twenty years). And China will most probably do what they did during the original Korean War: wait until our troops reach the Yalu River and then send their troops pouring over the border. The status of that enlarged conflict might well be determined by what the Russians chose to do (The Russians share a sliver of the border with North Korea).

It is more probable that we will make some sort of ugly deal with China before anything like that happened to remove the North Korean regime and remove their nuclear capacity. This is where this scenario is heading.

As far as North Korea crossing the border and invading South Korea, I don't see it happening. They have no motivation to do that. South Korea serves purposes for the North Koreans. As I mentioned above, North Korea exists because China wants it as a buffer zone and because they do not want a unified Korea. Even a unified communist Korea. A successful invasion of the South would radically change North Korea's relationship with China for the worse. Also, what would the North Koreans get by invading the South? Gold watches, new cars, and other Western trinkets? What they would get is something they would not want: Western thoughts and ideas infiltrating into their well-manicured and indoctrinated population. That would be something that would be an existential threat from within to the North Korean regime. They retain power by keeping their population isolated from outside influences. Not to mention the headaches of trying to subjugate and indoctrinate a population about equal in size to their own.

No, it makes no sense for the regime to do it. With them, it is all about sabre-rattling to get attention and things.

As far as the conduct of a war if North Korea were to invade the South, I would look for it to go pretty similar to how it went in 1950. The North invades. The South and U.S. forces withdraw and regroup (probably much, much more organized this time around). The U.S. establishes air superiority and blunts the North's thrust south. Troops from the U.S. arrive and a successful counterattack is launched regaining all lost ground and driving deep into North Korea.

But that ain't gonna happen.

[GMDino]

I just started listening to the "Revisionist History" podcast.

Listen to the episode about Vietnam in 1965 and then think about going to war with Korea.

http://revisionisthistory.com/episodes/02-saigon-1965

Quote:SAIGON, 1965

In the early 1960s, the Pentagon set up a top-secret research project in an old villa in downtown Saigon. The task? To interview captured North Vietnamese soldiers and guerrillas in order to measure their morale: Was the relentless U.S. bombing pushing them to the brink of capitulation?
Mai Elliott, working in the RAND villa on Rue Pasteur. The windows are taped to prevent the glass from shattering in case of an explosion from a mortar round.
Saigon, 1965 is the story of three people who got caught up in that effort: a young Vietnamese woman, a refugee from Nazi Germany, and a brilliant Russian émigré. All saw the same things. All reached different conclusions. The Pentagon effort, run by the Rand Corporation, was one of the most ambitious studies of enemy combatants ever conducted—and no one could agree on what it meant.

[BengalHawk62]

I once heard Kim Jung-Un went golfing and shot 18 holes in one on an 18 hole course.  If that's true, he should meet Nick Vigil.  I heard Nick Vigil shot 19 holes in one on an 18 hole golf course.