Opinion: DeSantis 2024?

[SunsetBengal]

Feehery of The Hill makes a strong case for DeSantis in 2024. I'm not surprised by seeing this article, as I brought up DeSantis a few weeks ago as a strong possibility for the Republican Party moving on from Trump, and was basically laughed down.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/feehery-the-floridian-the-democrats-really-fear/ar-BB1dJ6xu?ocid=spartan-dhp-feeds

Quote:Should Joe Biden decide to run again for president, one Florida resident represents the biggest threat to his reelection. And no, I am not talking about Donald Trump.

The Hill Feehery: The Floridian the Democrats really fear

There is ample evidence that Team Biden is growing increasingly nervous about Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor, so nervous that they floated out the idea of cutting off the Sunshine State from domestic travel because of made-up fears of COVID-19.

DeSantis has handled the coronavirus better than any other elected official in the world, outside of Sweden. He has resisted imposing worthless and counter-productive mask mandates. He has worked overtime to keep all schools open in his state. He has led the country in vaccinating at-risk senior citizens. He has used actual science and examined actual data, not bowing to the fantasy narratives spun by Washington bureaucrats.

As a result, DeSantis has vaulted himself to the top of the list for those conservatives who are looking for a true leader to run to replace Joe Biden in 2024.

DeSantis has created a positive economic environment in Florida while balancing rational health concerns about the negative effects of the novel coronavirus. As a result, businesses are flocking south, not just for the winter, but forever. Restaurants are opening there, not closing up shop. Entrepreneurs are investing. Businesses are growing. Theme-parks are thriving. Freedom is winning.
The Biden administration knows that DeSantis is not only a potential threat to take back the White House for the Republicans, but that his leadership provides a powerful counter-narrative to the doom and gloom provided by blue state governors and by the Democrats in Washington.

If people can live in freedom, if they can go to restaurants safely, if they don't have to wear masks, if they can operate their businesses, if their kids can go to school, all in Florida, lots of Americans are asking the question: Why can't we do all of those things here?
The effort to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsome and the recent revelations of nursing home malfeasance by New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo show that the bloom has come off the rose of lock-down governors. Their incompetence is only the tip of the blue-state iceberg. Voters are getting increasingly tired of the shutdowns, increasingly angry at the complete failure to control the teachers' unions, increasingly fed up with dire predictions that are meant to inflame and not inform. The American people are starting to figure out that the power grabs are not meant to protect them, but rather to control them.

The idea to shut down domestic travel to Florida as a way to bring DeSantis down a peg or two must be thoroughly resisted by every Republican governor, representative and senator. This would be an outrageous power grab by the federal government and by the new president.

I would urge every red state governor and every state legislature controlled by the Republican Party to issue proclamations in support of Florida, putting the Biden administration on notice that they won't have their state's support should they take this unprecedented action.
I would also urge state officials to follow the DeSantis model, if they aren't already, when it comes to reopening schools, reopening businesses and getting rid of useless mask mandates.
What has been working in Florida will work in the rest of the country.
Follow the actual science and the actual data.

Get all schools open, five days a week. Get all businesses, especially restaurants, open. Get all seniors vaccinated, with as little ridiculous bureaucracy as possible, as soon as possible.

Donald Trump lost the election in 2020 because he mishandled COVID. Ron DeSantis might very well win the presidential election in 2024 because he has handled COVID the way that Trump should have handled it but didn't, with competence and professionalism.

The Democrats are right to fear a Floridian when it comes to the election of 2024. It's DeSantis, though, not Trump.
Feehery is a partner at EFB Advocacy and blogs at http://www.thefeeherytheory.com. He served as spokesman to former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.), as communications director to former Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas) when he was majority whip and as a speechwriter to former House Minority Leader Bob Michel (R-Ill.).

[GMDino]

(02-16-2021, 10:56 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Feehery of The Hill makes a strong case for DeSantis in 2024.  I'm not surprised by seeing this article, as I brought up DeSantis a few weeks ago as a strong possibility for the Republican Party moving on from Trump, and was basically laughed down.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/feehery-the-floridian-the-democrats-really-fear/ar-BB1dJ6xu?ocid=spartan-dhp-feeds

A lot of my friends in Florida don't seem to care for him because of how he's dealt with Covid but he comes off to me as Trump-lite: All the bluster, less of the ego.  "Less" in the sense that he doesn't make it about *himself* he just insists he is doing it right and everyone else is wrong.

In general I think the gqp field in 2024 will be heavy on the authoritarian/tough guy/I'm like Trump and will own the libz anyway so DeSantis would fit right in.

And that's just a general feeling.  If he runs or might run I'd do a deeper dive into his policies and and such.

[Belsnickel]

It's wayyyyyyyy too early to tell who will be the best bet in 2024 for the Republicans. Right now there is a potential split in the party, the identity of the GOP moving forward is uncertain, we don't know what's going to be happening in the next two years to mid-terms, let alone the next presidential race, and we don't know if Biden is planning on running for a second term.

All of this being said, I don't think the author of that piece makes a very good argument. Florida hasn't been doing great during this pandemic. They have consistently been pretty high on the new cases and the death tolls. In addition, DeSantis tried to hide these numbers which resulted in people being silenced for trying to spread the truth and has otherwise shown himself to be very anti-First Amendment. So, if the GOP wants to continue down the path it has been going, which is one of abandoning its conservative principles, then sure, he could be a front runner. But if the GOP tries a course correction then he would be out. The next couple of years will tell.

[Au165]

This reads like DeSantis's mom wrote it and lacks much grounding in reality.

[fredtoast]

(02-16-2021, 11:17 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: All of this being said, I don't think the author of that piece makes a very good argument. Florida hasn't been doing great during this pandemic. They have consistently been pretty high on the new cases and the death tolls. In addition, DeSantis tried to hide these numbers which resulted in people being silenced for trying to spread the truth and has otherwise shown himself to be very anti-First Amendment. So, if the GOP wants to continue down the path it has been going, which is one of abandoning its conservative principles, then sure, he could be a front runner.

Beat me to it.  Everytime I hear someone repeat this right-wing speaking point "Florida is doing great"  I just ask to see the numbers to prove it.

Florida has about 10% more total population than New York, but about 20% more Covid cases.

[Wes Mantooth]

(02-16-2021, 02:14 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Beat me to it.  Everytime I hear someone repeat this right-wing speaking point "Florida is doing great"  I just ask to see the numbers to prove it.

Florida has about 10% more total population than New York, but about 20% more Covid cases.

Here you go (cases, ranked, per 100,000 as of 6 days ago)...

North Dakota — 12,887 per 100,000 population
Population: 762,062 residents

South Dakota — 12,367 per 100,000
Population: 884,659

Rhode Island — 11,274 per 100,000
Population: 1.1 million

Utah — 11,106 per 100,000
Population: 3.2 million

Arizona — 10,834 per 100,000
Population: 7.3 million

Tennessee — 10,733 per 100,000
Population: 6.8 million

Wisconsin — 10,344 per 100,000
Population: 5.8 million

Iowa — 10,337 per 100,000
Population: 3.2 million

Oklahoma — 10,262 per 100,000
Population: 4 million

Arkansas — 10,234 per 100,000
Population: 3 million

Nebraska — 10,051 per 100,000
Population: 1.9 million

Kansas — 9,819 per 100,000 Population: 2.9 million

Alabama — 9,681 per 100,000
Population: 4.9 million

Indiana — 9,581 per 100,000
Population: 6.7 million

Mississippi — 9,508 per 100,000
Population: 3 million 

Idaho — 9,302 per 100,000
Population: 1.8 million

Nevada — 9,259 per 100,000
Population: 3.1 million

South Carolina — 9,135 per 100,000
Population: 5.1 million

Wyoming — 9,128 per 100,000
Population: 578,759

Illinois — 9,098 per 100,000
Population: 12.7 million

Montana — 9,017 per 100,000
Population: 1.1 million

Louisiana — 8,913 per 100,000
Population: 4.6 million 

California — 8,709 per 100,000
Population: 39.5 million

Georgia — 8,698 per 100,000
Population: 10.6 million

Texas — 8,687 per 100,000
Population: 30 million

Kentucky — 8,617 per 100,000
Population: 4.5 million

New Mexico — 8,502 per 100,000
Population: 2.1 million

Delaware — 8,340 per 100,000
Population: 973,764

Florida — 8,338 per 100,000
Population: 21.5 million

Minnesota — 8,322 per 100,000
Population: 5.6 million

Missouri — 8,217 per 100,000
Population: 6.1 million

New Jersey — 8,200 cases per 100,000
Population: 8.9 million

Massachusetts — 7,935 per 100,000
Population: 6.9 million

Ohio — 7,916 per 100,000
Population: 11.7 million

New York — 7,699 per 100,000
Population: 19.4 million

North Carolina — 7,694 per 100,000 
Population: 10.5 million

Alaska — 7,587 per 100,000
Population: 731,545

Connecticut — 7,422 per 100,000
Population: 3.6 million

Colorado — 7,114 per 100,000
Population: 5.8 million

West Virginia — 7,004 per 100,000
Population: 1.8 million

Pennsylvania — 6,897 per 100,000
Population: 12.8 million

Virginia — 6,258 per 100,000
Population: 8.5 million

Michigan — 6,242 per 100,000
Population: 10 million

Maryland — 6,049 per 100,000
Population: 6 million

District of Columbia — 5,424 per 100,000
Population: 705,749

New Hampshire — 5,069 per 100,000
Population: 1.4 million

Washington — 4,299 per 100,000
Population: 7.6 million

Oregon — 3,507 per 100,000
Population: 4.2 million

Maine — 3,097 per 100,000
Population: 1.3 million

Vermont — 2,100 per 100,000
Population: 623,989

Hawaii — 1,869 per 100,000
Population: 1.4 million

Source: https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-confirmed-covid-19-cases-july-1.html

[BmorePat87]

Every state had the ability to see how New York responded when they were the first hit without any preparation or understanding of what needed to be done. New York then enacted policies to control the death toll starting in mid April and had been sitting at pretty good daily death numbers for months.

Florida said "**** it" and didn't do any of those things, leading to a ridiculous amount of deaths. This included spikes when the rest of the country was experiencing a Summer lull. They were 19% above the average death rate and only Alabama, Arizona, Mississippi, and South Carolina had higher death rates in the Summer than Florida.

In addition to that, the general anti-democracy rhetoric, be it fighting to prevent former felons from voting or silencing statistics and speech, is just another reason why he doesn't need to be in any position of power.

He could very well win the GOP primary. He fits the new populist archetype of what a Republican leader is now that the McCains, Doles, Bushes, and Romneys of the party are "RINOs". That side of the party will likely see a crowded field, though, and if the stalwarts of the old GOP are smart, they'll unite behind one candidate early and not allow 2016 to repeat itself, where one fringe candidate takes it with a consistent 30%.

[fredtoast]

(02-16-2021, 04:01 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Here you go (cases, ranked, per 100,000 as of 6 days ago)...

23 out of 51 and it looks like the average for Florida is actually higher than the overall average for the entire country.
Better than I thought but far from "great".  

[SunsetBengal]

(02-16-2021, 06:22 PM)fredtoast Wrote: 23 out of 51 and it looks like the average for Florida is actually higher than the overall average for the entire country.
Better than I thought but far from "great".  

Maybe take a look at death rate per 100K.  New York 2nd highest death rate from covid, Florida 27th.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/



  coronaviru.pdf (Size: 289.83 KB / Downloads: 2)

[Belsnickel]

There is no one statistic that can be used to really compare New York and Florida, or any two states, really. Differences in timing, strains, climate, and numerous other factors in addition to public health policy make them all unique in a variety of ways. Right now, if you compare New York and Florida on the 7-day averages, they are in pretty similar shape.

[Wes Mantooth]

(02-16-2021, 06:22 PM)fredtoast Wrote: 23 out of 51 and it looks like the average for Florida is actually higher than the overall average for the entire country.
Better than I thought but far from "great".  

You would think they'd be dead last, or 1st (depending on how you look at it) when you hear about just dangerous and irresponsble their approach has been.

Fwiw, Flordia has the 5th highest median age of resident at 42.4 years old.  They've seen more travel to their state this year then any other single state in the country.  They've allowed fans at sporting events, they've allowed bars to remain open, etc. etc. etc.

Everything we've been told is these things are reciple for a disaster.  Yet they rank 23rd in cases (per 100,000), and they rank 27th in deaths (per 100,000).

They rank below both California and Illinois in deaths despite these two states (like New York) being very agressive in their approach to restrictions.  How is that possible?

How can the 5th oldest population rank 27th in deaths with such a approach, one that's been mocked and villified?

And let me say this, don't mistake any of this for me being the type of person that wants everything open, or doesn't wear a mask, or thinks travel is a good idea.  I'm not.  I've worn my mask everywhere, and haven't been anywhere other than the Kroger and my local library over the last 11 months.  I just think these numbers are very interesting. 

I'm going to be as safe as I possibly can be, and I would encourage others to do the same.  But I do think there's a lot out there that supports the idea that a lot of those in power, along with the people advising them, really don't know what the best approach is to this is.

[fredtoast]

(02-16-2021, 06:52 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: They rank below both California and Illinois in deaths despite these two states (like New York) being very agressive in their approach to restrictions.  How is that possible?

There are lots of factors.  Poor air quality (pollution) increases the transmission rate.  More population in high density cities increases the transmission rate.  New York City has over 8 times as many citizens as the largest city in Florida (Jacksonville).  Chicago has three times as many.  The fourth largest city in California (San Jose) has more citizens than Jacksonville. Plus due to the high traffic of tourism many of the cases contracted in Florida were counted in the states were the visitors lived instead of in Florida.

Not sure how much all of these factors effect the numbers. All I know is that Florida has not done "great" when it comes to controlling Covid.

[Dill]

(02-16-2021, 10:56 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Feehery of The Hill makes a strong case for DeSantis in 2024.  I'm not surprised by seeing this article, as I brought up DeSantis a few weeks ago as a strong possibility for the Republican Party moving on from Trump, and was basically laughed down.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/feehery-the-floridian-the-democrats-really-fear/ar-BB1dJ6xu?ocid=spartan-dhp-feeds

There is ample evidence that Team Biden is growing increasingly nervous about Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor, so nervous that they floated out the idea of cutting off the Sunshine State from domestic travel because of made-up fears of COVID-19.

DeSantis has handled the coronavirus better than any other elected official in the world, outside of Sweden. He has resisted imposing worthless and counter-productive mask mandates. He has worked overtime to keep all schools open in his state. He has led the country in vaccinating at-risk senior citizens. He has used actual science and examined actual data, not bowing to the fantasy narratives spun by Washington bureaucrats.

The bolded leaves me puzzled, especially the implication that fear of DeSantis' electability could drive travel limitations to Florida.

I think that from a Trump supporter's perspective he has handled it "better" than anyone.   

[Dill]

(02-16-2021, 04:01 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Here you go (cases, ranked, per 100,000 as of 6 days ago)...

North Dakota — 12,887 per 100,000 population
Population: 762,062 residents

South Dakota — 12,367 per 100,000
Population: 884,659...

Florida — 8,338 per 100,000
Population: 21.5 million...

Ohio — 7,916 per 100,000
Population: 11.7 million...

Pennsylvania — 6,897 per 100,000
Population: 12.8 million...

Maryland — 6,049 per 100,000
Population: 6 million

District of Columbia — 5,424 per 100,000
Population: 705,749

Oregon — 3,507 per 100,000
Population: 4.2 million...

Vermont — 2,100 per 100,000
Population: 623,989

Hawaii — 1,869 per 100,000
Population: 1.4 million

Fascinating differences here. I don't see how one can explain them without reference to state policies--especially South Dakota and North Dakota. It can't just be a matter of crowded population centers and international air traffic.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/north-dakota-south-dakota-set-global-covid-records-how-did-n1257004

[SunsetBengal]

(02-16-2021, 09:06 PM)Dill Wrote: The bolded leaves me puzzled, especially the implication that fear of DeSantis' electability could drive travel limitations to Florida.

I think that from a Trump supporter's perspective he has handled it "better" than anyone.   

Given Florida's high population of retired folk, along with their very diverse community that includes huge population swaths of people most susceptible to the disease, Florida looks like a model compared to NYC.  When you look at the entire State of NY, only the big city is very diverse.  Once you get out to the upstate regions, it's pretty bland.  I know that another poster drew attention to the fact that Florida's largest city is less than 1M population, but that is not a valid item for comparison, when comparing State to State.  Florida is densely populated along an immense length of shoreline, in smaller cities, where people congregate in close proximity.

[Dill]

(02-16-2021, 09:59 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Given Florida's high population of retired folk, along with their very diverse community that includes huge population swaths of people most susceptible to the disease, Florida looks like a model compared to NYC.  When you look at the entire State of NY, only the big city is very diverse.  Once you get out to the upstate regions, it's pretty bland.  I know that another poster drew attention to the fact that Florida's largest city is less than 1M population, but that is not a valid item for comparison, when comparing State to State.  Florida is densely populated along an immense length of shoreline, in smaller cities, where people congregate in close proximity.

Seems like pop. density should be a critical factor--but look at North and South Dakota.  

I Know both states well. Wide open spaces. The largest city in North Dakota has only 124,000 people. 

And yet they lead the nation in COVID cases, proportional to population.

[SunsetBengal]

(02-16-2021, 10:06 PM)Dill Wrote: Seems like pop. density should be a critical factor--but look at North and South Dakota.  

I Know both states well. Wide open spaces. The largest city in North Dakota has only 124,000 people. 

And yet they lead the nation in COVID cases, proportional to population.

They also have a higher percentage of Native Americans than many other States.  Can't forget about the vulnerable percentage of population in correlation to the total number of people.

[Vas Deferens]

Are the infection numbers skewed by “primary residence”?

[BmorePat87]

(02-16-2021, 09:59 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Given Florida's high population of retired folk, along with their very diverse community that includes huge population swaths of people most susceptible to the disease, Florida looks like a model compared to NYC. 

If you remove context, sure.

If you don’t, then you look at the fact that NY was the first to be hit and it was hit hard. From March to the end of May, as the nations struggled with a lack of supplies and understanding of how to respond to, they experienced 24k deaths, mostly from NYC. In the same time, Fl saw 2.5k deaths.

Since then, NY adopted best practices and has had 20k deaths while Fl has had 26.5k deaths, primarily coming from the Summer months where most state saw a decline.

By no means does Florida act as a model, even relative to NY.

[SunsetBengal]

(02-16-2021, 11:02 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: If you remove context, sure.

If you don’t, then you look at the fact that NY was the first to be hit and it was hit hard. From March to the end of May, as the nations struggled with a lack of supplies and understanding of how to respond to, they experienced 24k deaths, mostly from NYC. In the same time, Fl saw 2.5k deaths.

Since then, NY adopted best practices and has had 20k deaths while Fl has had 26.5k deaths, primarily coming from the Summer months where most state saw a decline.

By no means does Florida act as a model, even relative to NY.

It's a fantastic model, along with the perfect comparison.  You've got NYC executing the authoritarian State, while Florida chose to let the people live how they choose.  Were one States results dramatically better than the other?  Not really, except Florida is dramatically better in terms of deaths per 100K population.