PFT Predicts Bengals Miss The Post Season

[GreenCornBengal]

There have been plenty of times this team could have rolled over during the regular season and taken a losing record... however, I don't think Dalton (of all people) will let that happen. There have been a few times over the past seasons when we were 3-4 or whatever that I went "ooooo no here we go, a losing streak" and the team pulls it together.

I think this team has too much resolve to miss the playoffs. Color me homer.

[McC]

(09-09-2015, 12:51 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: The Bengals won't get yearly respect until they knock the playoff monkey off their backs. It's that simple.

This.  It is faulty reasoning, though.  They think, almost on a yearly basis, that the Bengals losing in the playoffs somehow prevents them from getting back there.  A team makes the playoffs four years in a row and that is somehow a reason why they won't make it a fifth.  I call twisted logic and predetermined prejudice on that.  They just can't giver in to the reality that the team they counted on for a ready joke is no longer a joke.

Year after year, the Dolphins get picked and year after year, they come up short.  Doesn't stop them from picking them again.  It's the same phenomenon in reverse.

[Shake n Blake]

(09-09-2015, 02:52 PM)McC Wrote: This.  It is faulty reasoning, though.  They think, almost on a yearly basis, that the Bengals losing in the playoffs somehow prevents them from getting back there.  A team makes the playoffs four years in a row and that is somehow a reason why they won't make it a fifth.  I call twisted logic and predetermined prejudice on that.  They just can't giver in to the reality that the team they counted on for a ready joke is no longer a joke.

Year after year, the Dolphins get picked and year after year, they come up short.  Doesn't stop them from picking them again.  It's the same phenomenon in reverse.

Agreed. The logic is definitely faulty, but the 0-6 playoff record is an easy target for those that want to doubt the Bengals. It's fair to point it out as a reason why you don't think they'll win a Super Bowl, but it has nothing to do with the regular season, where the Bengals have been consistently good.

Also, there's this thing called the gambler's fallacy. Just because you flip a quarter 4 times and get tails each time, that doesn't mean that the 5th flip is more likely to land on heads. The Bengals making the playoffs 4 years in a row doesn't mean they are less likely to make the playoffs this year.

[CageTheBengal]

I try not to take the playoffs for granite I'm aware of how rare it is to have a team go to the playoffs 5 years in a row (It's also rare to go 4 times in a row and lose all 4 games.). We could be a team with a winning record and miss the playoffs all together just about every year it's competitive. It'd be a bitter pill to swallow but how long can we keep going to the playoffs year after year? On the other hand the year that we should've missed the playoffs should've been last season with all of the injuries and being dead last in sacks so with the team being healthy it seems foolish to doubt us now. Getting to the playoffs and winning in the playoffs are two different things.

[*bengalfan74*]

(09-09-2015, 02:52 PM)McC Wrote: This.  It is faulty reasoning, though.  They think, almost on a yearly basis, that the Bengals losing in the playoffs somehow prevents them from getting back there.  A team makes the playoffs four years in a row and that is somehow a reason why they won't make it a fifth.  I call twisted logic and predetermined prejudice on that.  They just can't giver in to the reality that the team they counted on for a ready joke is no longer a joke.

Year after year, the Dolphins get picked and year after year, they come up short.  Doesn't stop them from picking them again.  It's the same phenomenon in reverse.

(09-09-2015, 03:01 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Agreed. The logic is definitely faulty, but the 0-6 playoff record is an easy target for those that want to doubt the Bengals. It's fair to point it out as a reason why you don't think they'll win a Super Bowl, but it has nothing to do with the regular season, where the Bengals have been consistently good.

Also, there's this thing called the gambler's fallacy. Just because you flip a quarter 4 times and get tails each time, that doesn't mean that the 5th flip is more likely to land on heads. The Bengals making the playoffs 4 years in a row doesn't mean they are less likely to make the playoffs this year.

I agree with what both of you are saying in general......but.

All I'm saying is if you look really closely at exactly how and why we've made the playoffs four years in a row. We've had the luxury of a couple easy schedules in there, we've gotten in by a hair by basically nobody being better. And a half dozen other ways to break it up.

Point being we've not really powered our way into the playoffs by forcing our will and whupping ass.

If this trend continues ??? And we really aren't a true powerhouse team ?? Can we really expect to, for lack of better words, get lucky again ?

[*Nately120*]

Meh, we can get all self-righteous about people doubting the 2011 Bengals but here we are already dismissing about 6 teams that could make a surprise run this year. So it goes.

As for my worthless view, I'd feel a lot more confident about our 4-year playoff run if we won the division more than once in that span. Wild Card berths are nice but they are like flaky friends and you shouldn't rely upon them if you can avoid it. Bottom line, if the Bengals can't FINALLY break .500 in the division I don't see how they can continue to make the playoffs. Ya gotta handle ya' bidness!

[Luvnit2]

(09-09-2015, 03:01 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Agreed. The logic is definitely faulty, but the 0-6 playoff record is an easy target for those that want to doubt the Bengals. It's fair to point it out as a reason why you don't think they'll win a Super Bowl, but it has nothing to do with the regular season, where the Bengals have been consistently good.

Also, there's this thing called the gambler's fallacy. Just because you flip a quarter 4 times and get tails each time, that doesn't mean that the 5th flip is more likely to land on heads. The Bengals making the playoffs 4 years in a row doesn't mean they are less likely to make the playoffs this year.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

There are many reason why teams repeat and teams can't repeat.

On the factual side, the question becomes what changed for team A to be better or for team B to be worse?

In the Bengals case, their roster is arguably better right now simply due to the better health of a few starters who did not play in 2014 at all ) or 1 series.
Who did we lose? Burfict maybe, but he has a shot at playing more games in 2015 than he did in 2014. Geathers? Newman? Gresham? Newhouse? Still?

Who did we add?
Eifert (injured most of 2014
Marvin Jones (missed all)
Green (missed parts of 6 games)
Michael Johnson
Hawk
Sims
A rookie class

A see a stronger roster in 2015 than the one by week 2 of 2014.

The schedule is tougher, but the Steelers and Ravens schedules are equally tough and some would argue Steelers schedule is tougher

People can predict all of the want, but in my mind their logic is not picking us based on the history of how hard for a team  to make the playoffs versus looking team's additions. subtractions and schedules to determine we are out in 2015

[bengal kitten uk]

The great thing about this season is that the schedules have fallen in such a way that there should be no easy wins for anybody.

AFC North plays AFC West and NFC West
AFC East plays AFC South and NFC East
AFC South plays AFC East and NFC South
AFC West plays AFC North and NFC North

If the North teams play well, it will be hard for Kansas/Denver/San Diego/Oakland to do well - particularly as they play GB/DET/MIN/CHI as well.

The East and South play each other and can easily harm all of their chances. A tight East also means that they are more likely to split between themselves rather than have a couple of run-away teams.

Arguably the biggest rival to a 3x AFC North postseason looks to me to be the Texans (as they play both Souths) and the North teams themselves. That game the Bengals have against the Texans in November could be vital.

Basically, I could see an argument for 8 teams in the AFC at around .500 and it will only be a game here or there that makes the difference. Quite how all these media "experts" can continually post predictions without some Bengals representation in there is beyond me!

[ShowMeUrTDs]

It is a fine line in the NFL between 8-8 and 11-5, a couple bad turnovers late or injuries and games can swing the other way at the drop of a hat!

Did we all forget the crazy Tampa Bay, accidental Marv challenge without any challenges, game debacle? They lose that weird game and they may have missed the after party last year.

You take what many consider a tougher schedule, serious questions about our coaching (in game adjustments and failure to elevate players in primetime), QB, Center, and LBs and I could easily see 7-9. The ball bounces the right way I could see as high as 11-5, point is I don't think the PFT predictions are ridiculous and it is going to be an interesting tell all season for this team.

[BengalChris]

(09-09-2015, 12:19 PM)kramer1 Wrote: Take the league by storm with Andy Dalton at the helm? Not happening.

I cannot imagine this team making the playoffs. It all will start with a butt whooping in Oakland. Oakland will end up with a better record than the Bengals imo.

That's a pretty bold prediction there.

Oakland does concern me. History is one thing. Marvin's lack of preparation and the player's occasional complacent attitude when they perceive the opponent as inferior is a bigger concern.

[Utts]

(09-09-2015, 12:46 PM)J24 Wrote: I could see us not making the playoffs but I also could see us winning the whole thing.

No way we win it all with Dalton at QB. If our defense was one of the best of all time, maybe. Andy cannot string together enough solid to great playoff games to make that happen. Yes, that's my *opinion*, and I imagine the opinion of most informed objective observers as well.

[Emphasis]

I think we make the playoffs yet again, barring if major injuries occur.

[Shake n Blake]

(09-09-2015, 04:07 PM)Nately120 Wrote: As for my worthless view, I'd feel a lot more confident about our 4-year playoff run if we won the division more than once in that span.  Wild Card berths are nice but they are like flaky friends and you shouldn't rely upon them if you can avoid it.  Bottom line, if the Bengals can't FINALLY break .500 in the division I don't see how they can continue to make the playoffs.  Ya gotta handle ya' bidness!

(09-09-2015, 04:09 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

There are many reason why teams repeat and teams can't repeat.

On the factual side, the question becomes what changed for team A to be better or for team B to be worse?

In the Bengals case, their roster is arguably better right now simply due to the better health of a few starters who did not play in 2014 at all ) or 1 series.
Who did we lose? Burfict maybe, but he has a shot at playing more games in 2015 than he did in 2014. Geathers? Newman? Gresham? Newhouse? Still?

Who did we add?
Eifert (injured most of 2014
Marvin Jones (missed all)
Green (missed parts of 6 games)
Michael Johnson
Hawk
Sims
A rookie class

A see a stronger roster in 2015 than the one by week 2 of 2014.

The schedule is tougher, but the Steelers and Ravens schedules are equally tough and some would argue Steelers schedule is tougher

People can predict all of the want, but in my mind their logic is not picking us based on the history of how hard for a team  to make the playoffs versus looking team's additions. subtractions and schedules to determine we are out in 2015

Although I do think this team is good enough to win 10+ games regardless of schedule, a tougher non-division schedule could make the division games even more important than normal. If only 2 teams make it from the north (I can't envision only 1), then we'd better bring it against the Steelers and Ravens both in particular.

[Rattler]

Injuries trump all projections.

[Sled21]

Day before yesterday I was listening to NFL radio and heard Rich Gannon and his co-host predict Steeler would win the division, Ravens would win the Wild Card, and Bengals would miss the playoffs at 8-8. Come into work yesterday and MSN has an article linked predicting Bengals win the Division easily. Predictions are like opinions and you know what else. ... Time for our boys to put their heads down and plow through the season laying waste to all comers.....

[XenoMorph]

This has been their predicition 5 years running now. every year we are out and someone else is in it seems until post season rolls around at least.


Like the poster above says predicitions mean little. Last years records mean little.

what matters is the next 17 weeks.

i know we went 3-3 again in the division last year... But this was a division that almost made history last year if the browns had won a few more at the end.... they would have been the first to have all 4 teams above .500.... everyone ahd a winnnig season till about what week 14/15(or at least no lossing records.)