Polls say one thing voters say another

[*pally*]

Yesterday was the Indiana primary....months after she dropped out of the race nearly 23% of primary voters still chose her over Trump. This was a closed primary with competitive races for their governor and senator candidates. This pattern has been repeated time and time again over the primary season. Special elections are being won by Democrats

For all the talk about polls, Trump has a long way to go to consolidate the Republican vote let alone make inroads with true independents.

Polling in 2020 was the most inaccurate in recent history and 2024 may beat that. The polling companies are still relying too much on the population that answers the phone. still poll too many people via landline. And they are weighing the data too Republican.

On top of that the various Democratic campaign committees are killing it with the fundraising. Financial reports indicate most Democrats are have more cash on hand than their Republican opponents.

I'm not saying this isn't going to be a close race but actual data is showing something different than polling is

[Luvnit2]

(05-08-2024, 12:26 PM)pally Wrote: Yesterday was the Indiana primary....months after she dropped out of the race nearly 23% of primary voters still chose her over Trump.  This was a closed primary with competitive races for their governor and senator candidates. This pattern has been repeated time and time again over the primary season.  Special elections are being won by Democrats

For all the talk about polls, Trump has a long way to go to consolidate the Republican vote let alone make inroads with true independents.  

Polling in 2020 was the most inaccurate in recent history and 2024 may beat that.  The polling companies are still relying too much on the population that answers the phone. still poll too many people via landline.  And they are weighing the data too Republican.

On top of that the various Democratic campaign committees are killing it with the fundraising.  Financial reports indicate most Democrats are have more cash on hand than their Republican opponents.

I'm not saying this isn't going to be a close race but actual data is showing something different than polling is

Why do you continue to ignore exit polling?

Trump is the overwhelming GOP choice; Biden is the overwhelming Democrat choice. 

The average of polling says the largest group is now Independents. They are going to Trump 57% to 43% in head-to-head matchups. That is a huge number and did not vote that way in 2020. Biden won among Independents.

Trump spends no money in Indiana. Trump will kill Biden in Indiana. The swing states will determine the 2024 election just as they did in 2016 and 2020. I suggest you focus on them, just as I will not focus on California. To me it would be irrelevant if Biden won their primary by less votes than he did in 2020 election.

[masonbengals fan]

What is this TRUE Independant & who gets to define them ?

[Luvnit2]

(05-08-2024, 01:01 PM)masonbengals fan Wrote: What is this TRUE Independant & who gets to define them ?

They are defined when they register to vote. Just as I am a registered Republican and likely many registered Democrats in this forum, other pick Independent.

I choose Republican so I can simply vote 100% GOP. It makes it easier to case a ballot.

[*pally*]

(05-08-2024, 12:46 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Why do you continue to ignore exit polling?

Trump is the overwhelming GOP choice; Biden is the overwhelming Democrat choice. 

The average of polling says the largest group is now Independents. They are going to Trump 57% to 43% in head-to-head matchups. That is a huge number and did not vote that way in 2020. Biden won among Independents.

Trump spends no money in Indiana. Trump will kill Biden in Indiana. The swing states will determine the 2024 election just as they did in 2016 and 2020. I suggest you focus on them, just as I will not focus on California. To me it would be irrelevant if Biden won their primary by less votes than he did in 2020 election.

Do you mean the exit polling that has consistently said that a large percentage of Haley voters won't vote for Trump?

Yeah, Trump will win in Indiana easily...but he doesn't even have 80% of the Republican vote there based on the primary vote.  If he can' pull that number in ruby-red Indiana, he needs to be concerned about those all-important purple states.

And my point was that predictive polling is saying one thing but the actual results aren't supporting that data.  

[Luvnit2]

Chicago voters send message to Biden ahead of visit: City 'completely fed up' with Democrats


https://www.foxnews.com/media/chicago-voters-send-message-biden-ahead-visit-city-completely-fed-democrats

Here are some people not happy with Democrats nor Biden. Trump won't win Illinois, but Democrats have to be concerned as black voters are very specific in Chicago, they are fed up with Democrat's immigration policies taking money from their communities.

They may never vote for Trump; the problem is they may never vote for anyone and stay home which would hurt down ballot candidates.

The problem is I don't these types of issues going away, in fact likely they get worse.

[Luvnit2]

(05-08-2024, 01:07 PM)pally Wrote: Do you mean the exit polling that has consistently said that a large percentage of Haley voters won't vote for Trump?

Yeah, Trump will win in Indiana easily...but he doesn't even have 80% of the Republican vote there based on the primary vote.  If he can' pull that number in ruby-red Indiana, he needs to be concerned about those all-important purple states.

And my point was that predictive polling is saying one thing but the actual results aren't supporting that data.  

Haley voters may not vote for Trump, and he loses his base, or these people have always been never Trumpers, so it is baked in the polling.

As for Biden, do you think he can lose the large number of his base I mentioned and beat Trump?

Does Trump or Biden have a better shot to overcome the loss of their base prior to November? I would argue in next few months Nikki will endorse Trump, if so Trump gets more votes.

What can Biden do to get back the Black, Hispanic and under 30 voters? Can Trump fix immigration and the economy by September when some stated start voting?

Time will tell, but if you told me Trump would gain votes with every indictment, i would say you were crazy. Democrats better hope Bragg gets a conviction, if not a very bad outcome for Democrats in November in my opinion. It now appears no other case will go to trial until after the election and has nothing to do with the SC immunity case. 

[BigPapaKain]

Polls ask an incredibly small sample to make a relatively huge projection.

Anyone putting any faith into any poll is reaching at straws off hope or outrage.

[Arturo Bandini]

Don't listen to any poll. Vote like your life depends on it because maybe it is.

[HarleyDog]

(05-08-2024, 01:04 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I choose Republican so I can simply vote 100% GOP. It makes it easier to case a ballot.

For real? I'll never understand a citizen's commitment to a party where they will vote by party affiliation and not the value of the candidate themselves. I imagine many on here do the same, but I feel this is one of the reasons we fail to progress faster than we do. 

[Stewy]

(05-10-2024, 09:21 AM)HarleyDog Wrote: For real? I'll never understand a citizen's commitment to a party where they will vote by party affiliation and not the value of the candidate themselves. I imagine many on here do the same, but I feel this is one of the reasons we fail to progress faster than we do. 

Been this way for years.  People are lazy and don't want ot learn about the individual candidates, this they vote a ballot because they feel that "side" generally represents their day to day concerns.  It's easy to understand - it's been happening since straight ballot voting came into existence, but it is either blind or lazy - take your pick.